Shalu Asarikandy (Shell, India) Monalisa Patel (Shell, India) It is important to understand the commercialization potential of an emerging technology before taking any business decision. The degree of commercialization of a technology, especially emerging technologies can be measured based on different parameters like market information, finance, Intellectual Property. Patent information can be considered as one of the good source for assessing the level of progression of technologies from invention to commercialization phase. In this talk, different correlations based on patent bibliographic data will be presented with case studies carried out in different technology fields.

1. Copyright of Shell International
Commercialisation Potential of Emerging Technologies: Insights
Based on Patent Analysis
Shalu Asarikandy
Dr. Monalisa Patel
Shell India
1N0V 3, 2017

2. Copyright of Shell International
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Nov 3, 2017 2

3. Copyright of Shell International
Contents
Nov 3, 2017 3Footer
▪ Technology Commercialisation and Patent Information
▪ Introduction to Technologies Discussed in Case Studies
▪ Battery Technologies
▪ Wind Energy
▪ Patent information Parameters & Analysis
▪ Patent Classifications
▪ Assignee Type
▪ Priority & Publication Data
▪ Country Criteria
▪ Legal Status: Grant Rates

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$
Technology Commercialisation and Patent Information
Nov 3, 2017 4Footer
Invention Development Commercialisation Improvements
$$
Degree of technology commercialisation and its maturity
Market Data Financial Data
Intellectual Property Data
Others
Country Policies
Regulatory Information
Technical Data
Patent Data
Patent Bibliographic Data
Priority Date Publication Date
Priority Country Publication Country
Assignees Legal Status
Patent Families Classification Others

5. Copyright of Shell International
Technology Commercialisation and Patent Information
Understanding the technology Patent
Bibliographic Data
▪ Patent Publication trends
▪ Country Distributions (Priority,
Publication)
▪ Major Assignees and their trends etc.
Date Month 2017 5Footer
Are there better indicators of degree of commercialisation of a technology??
Aim is to study new ratios of patent bibliographic data as better indicators of the degree of
commercialisation of a technology!!
FIVE PARAMETERS
Ratio based on first priority and publication countries Ratio of Patent Classifications: Specific vs Others
Ratio between the type of Assignees (Corporates vs Non Corporates) Ratio based on the count of countries (One Country vs Others)
Grant Rate Trends

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Introduction to Technologies Discussed in Case Studies
Battery Technologies
✓ Lead Acid Batteries
✓ Lithium Ion Batteries
✓ Lithium Sulphur Batteries
✓ Lithium Air Batteries
Source: Nature Materials | Vol 11 | February 2012
Source: Energy and Power Engineering, 2013, 5, 481-488
Wind Energy
✓ Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT)
✓ Other Wind Energy Technologies (OTHER-WT)
Two Emerging Technology Fields Are Considered For The Analysis
Business
Technology

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Patent Classifications
Each Patent documents associated with Patent classifications classes:-
✓ Classifications specific to the technology (Tech Classes)
✓ Classifications from other fields (Other Classes)
✓ Increasing degree of commercialisation of a technology Increasing presence
of “Other Classes”
✓ Ratio of “Other Classes to Tech Classes”  parameter for assessing the level of
commercial development in a technology field
✓ Increasing value of ratio an increasing trend for the emerging
technologies that is undergoing or about to undergo technology
commercialisation
✓ Comparison of the ratio curve between different sub-technologies in the
same technology domain possible indication for comparing the
commercialisation level in different technology fields
Battery
HAWT

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Patent Classifications
Date Month 2017 8Footer
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CLASSRATIO
CUMULATIVE DATA : PUBLICATION YEAR
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0,4
0,45
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CLASSRATIO
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
Lead- Acid Battery decreasing trend due to tech. maturation
Lithium- Sulfur, Lithium- Air, Lithium-ion
Increasing trend indicating transition from R&D to
commercialisation
Lead- Acid Battery
 Increasing trend due to tech.
commercialisation

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Assignee Type
Patent Assignees
✓ Corporate Assignees
✓ Non-Corporate Assignees (Universities, Research
Institutes, Labs etc.)
✓ Beginning stage of invention more research may be
contributed by the non-corporate patent assignees and this
situation may be gradually changing based on the level of
commercialisation
✓ The ratio of the count of “Non-Corporate” to “Corporate”
assignees in a technology area  indicating the degree of
technology commercialisation
✓ The ratio curve between different technology fields in a given
technology domain can indicate the relative levels of
commercialisations
Requires segregation of assignees from patent
data into corporate and non-corporate
0 100 200 300 400 500
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Count of Patent Families
Corporate Non-Corporate
Degreeofcommercialisation

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Assignee Type
Date Month 2017 10Footer
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
COUNTOFNON-
CORPORATE/CORPORATE
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
LEAD-ACID LI-ION LI-S LI-AIR
0
0,03
0,06
0,09
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
COUNTOFNON-
CORPORATE/CORPORATE
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
HAWT OTHER WT
Lithium-Air, Lithium- Sulphur higher ratio  indicating
technology to be in the initial stages of invention and more
research activities contributed by non corporates
Other WT higher ratio  more research activities
contributed by non corporates

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Priority & Publication Data
Priority Country: Country where the invention is first filed
✓ First country for the technology to get commercialized (selling or manufacturing)
✓ Beginning stage of any technology filings mostly in the country of origin
compared to filings outside the country of origin
✓ Invention Phase ratio of “total inventions” (based on first priority) to “all total
patent publications” appears to be more
Publication Country: Country where the patent for the invention has been filed
✓ More the number of countries for patent filings, more the level of globalization
indicating the commercialisation phase of the technology
✓ Beginning of commercialisation  ratio of “total inventions” (based on first priority)
to “all total patent publications” appears to be less
✓ Ratio of the “count of first priority publications” to “count of total patent families”
for a technology in a specific country indicating country specific degree of
commercialisation of a technology
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1960 1980 2000 2020
COUNTOF1STPRIORITY/COUNTOFTOTAL
PUBLICATIONS
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
Degreeofcommercialisation
Ratio value progresses from near to 1
region towards zero in an ideal scenario,
but there can be exceptions based on other
factors

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Priority & Publication Data
Date Month 2017 12Footer
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
COUNTOF1STPRIORITY/
COUNTOFTOTAL
PUBLICATIONS
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
US DE CN JP
HAWTRatio drop in US, CN, JP indicating high degree
of commercialisation
DE  one of the major hub for HAWT tech development  high
count of local players  increasing number of patent data with DE
as first priority
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
COUNTOF1STPRIORITY/
COUNTOFTOTAL
PUBLICATIONS
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
US DE CN JP
No sharp ratio drop compared to HAWT relatively less
degree of commercialisation except in JP
Other-WT

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Priority & Publication Data
Date Month 2017 13Footer
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2017
COUNTOF1STPRIORITY/
COUNTOFTOTAL
PUBLICATIONS
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
US JP
Lithium-ion
High ratio in JP more local players leading to high number of priorities
Drop in ratio in US, JP around 2000 indicating higher degree of
commercialisation
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
COUNTOF1STPRIORITY/
COUNTOFTOTAL
PUBLICATIONS
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
US JP Lead- Acid
Lead- Acid Battery is already an old and fully commercialized technology which
is also well indicative from the plateau curve

14. Copyright of Shell International
Country Criteria
✓ Beginning stage of any technology filings mostly
in the country of origin compared to filings outside
the country of origin
✓ More the number of countries for patent filings,
more the level of globalization indicating the
commercialisation phase of the technology
✓ The ratio “Count of Patent Families with number of
filing countries more than unity” to “Count of
Patent Families with number of filing countries is
unity” may indicate the degree of globalization
0 100 200 300 400 500
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Count of Patent Families
NC>1 NC=1
Degreeofcommercialisation

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Country Criteria
Date Month 2017 15Footer
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
NC>1/NC=1
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
LEAD-ACID LI-ION LI-SULPHUR LI-AIR
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
NC>1/NC=1
CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR
HAWT Other WT
Li-ion increasing ratio after late 90’s
technology approaching towards
commercialisation
HAWT increasing ratio after late 90’s
higher degree of technology
commercialisation compared to Other WT
Li-Air, Li-S decreasing ratio not many
players and activity more concentrated in
academics where filings are more in the
country of origin

16. Copyright of Shell International
Legal Status: Grant Rates
▪ Granted patents will help an entity to exclude others making, using,
offering for sale, or selling the patented invention which in a way helps
to occupy the market and be the leader
▪ In the initial stage of a new technology patents will be getting filed in a
higher rate but the conversion rate to grants may not be that high based
on lot of factor i.e. technology success and more concept based filings
▪ When a technology is more towards commercialisation stage the count
of grants will increase to occupy the market/ develop monopoly and be
the market leader
▪ The conversion rate from filed patents to grants with time will indicate
the extent the technology has been commercialized
▪ The change in number of grants over time is an indicator for the extent
of commercialisation of a technology
0 100 200 300 400 500
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Count of Patent Families
Applications Grant
Degreeofcommercialisation

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Legal Status: Grant Rates in US only
Date Month 2017 17Footer
0
2000
4000
6000
CHANGEINCOUNTOFGRANTS
PUBLICATION YEAR
LEAD-ACID LI-ION LI-S LI-AIR
Exponential rise in change in grant count over time for Li-ion technology  indicates technology
closing towards commercialisation
Lead-Acid Battery no change in count of grants over time indicates technology reached
commercialisation and in the maturation stage
0
500
1000
1500
2000
CHANGEINCOUNTOFGRANTS
PUBLICATION YEAR
HAWT Other WT
Exponential rise in change in count of grants over time for HAWT compared to Other WT indicates
the higher degree of commercialisation happened for HAWT

18. Copyright of Shell International
Summary
▪ An attempt to highlight the improvement needs in patent analytics domain for
understanding the commercialisation potential of technologies.
▪ Tried some new ratios of patent bibliographic parameters as indicators of
commercialisation potential of a technology
▪ Need further studies to formalise a methodology for using patent information as
indicator of commercialisation potential of a technology
Date Month 2017 18Footer

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