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Nature’s Contribution to People: The Africa Regional Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

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Nature’s Contribution to People: The Africa Regional Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Mariteuw Chimère Diaw
8th African RCE Meeting
8-10 August, 2018, Zomba, Malawi

Publicada em: Governo e ONGs
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Nature’s Contribution to People: The Africa Regional Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

  1. 1. Nature’s contribution to people The Africa Regional Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Mariteuw Chimère Diaw AfRA 2015-2018
  2. 2. Main points I. The Africa Assessment II. The Scope of Nature’s contribution to people in Africa III. A potential unrealized yet deteriorating IV. Going Further: A New Economy for Africa
  3. 3. L’Évaluation africaine
  4. 4. The African expertise 95 143 Authors Experts 23 African countries 8 non- African2359 Sources 3112 external comments AfRA in numbers The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services www.ipbes.net 17 15 8 34 19 24 Francophones 8 countries 8% Anglophones 2 countries, 9% 25 % + 2 afro-canadiens Western Europe (15) 16% - USA (5) 15% : Egypte, Maroc, Soudan (1 algérien) 2 RDC (Canada) 6 Cameroun 8% 34% - South Africa (26) 27% + Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia 18% Kenya (8) 8% Madagascar (4) 4% Tanzania, Ouganda, Ethiopia 20%
  5. 5. Cadrage 43 sous sections Contributions de la Nature aux gens et à la qualité de vie (38 ) Statut, tendances et dynamiques futures (70) Options de gouvernance et de politique Interactions présentes et futurs (scénarios) Moteurs directs and indirects de changement (60) 1 2 3 6 5 4
  6. 6. SPM: An optimistic narrative structure Africa has unique and diversified biodiversity and natural assets She is under pressure and these natural assets are degrading But Africa has options and solutions That can strengthen existing transformation frameworks To move toward an Africa-led post-carbon industrial model that invests in ecological innovation and in inclusive polycentric governance adapted to diverse scénarios on the evolution of the world and markets
  7. 7. 2. Nature’s contributions to people in Africa
  8. 8. Rich and diverse ecosystems that generate flows of goods and services essential for the food, water, energy, health and security needs of the continent. More than any other continent, rural and urban Africa remains deeply rooted in nature and its services in order to produce and reproduce Africa's extraordinary wealth in biodiversity and ecosystem services, and the wealth of indigenous and local knowledge is a strategic asset for the sustainable development of the region. But Africa is underutilizing its resources, even as it is losing them The true value of biodiversity and nature's contributions is underestimated in decision-making in Africa Unique, diverse and contrasted natural assets
  9. 9. Vast resources Unevenly distributed Exceptional Ecosystems Outstanding number of large transboundary basins and water bodies: Nile, Congo, Zambezi Niger/Lake Tanganyika – e.g. L. Victoria ($600 M, 3M people) 3 of the 4 most productive LMEs (Large Marine Écosystems) of the world – Estimated value: $139 Billion/year 25 % of the world watersheds (out of 63) Water But Watersheds split between water-rich and water-poor countries and areas (e.g. Nile, Zambezi) 66% of the continent is arid 300 to 400 M people live in water-poor areas Fisheries West Africa one of the world’s most important fishing areas 4,5 millions tons of fish in 2000 $24 Billion contribution to national economies IF all catches were landed 8 million fishermen and families Fisheries are in decline - catches are largely diverted out of Africa A continent under pressure Unique, diverse and contrasted natural assets
  10. 10. Energy Mines Bois de feu : + de 80% de l’énergie primaire + de 90% de la population (cuisine) Demande de charbon de bois augmente Abundant and diverse energy sources, incl. oil, gas and clean énergy La réalisation du potentiel hydroélectrique, solaire, éolien, géothermique est restée fortement limitée Des ressources minières extraordinaires – Plus de $34 000 milliards USD rien que pour la RDC (pas directement traité par l’ERA) Hydroélectricité : 1/5ème de l'alimentation électrique Moins de 10% du potentiel utilisé. Seulement 9% de la population en RDC a accès à l'électricité Une grande pauvreté d’accès à l’énergie sur la plus grande partie du continent A continent under pressure Unique, diverse and contrasted natural assets
  11. 11. Species and genetics Species and genetics Africa is the last place on Earth with a broadly intact assemblage of big mammals. It is a center of richness and endemism for freshwater fish, mollusc and crustacean species. ¼ of the mammals, 1/5th of bird species and at least 1/6th of the planet’s vegetal species Animal and plant genetic resources adapted to drought, pests and environmental change. Food and cash crops of African origin: wheat, barley, millet and sorghum species; teff (Eragrostis tef); coffee; rooibos tea (Aspalathus linearis); cowpea (Vigna unguiculata); and the oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). The Sudanese belt is the only shea producing area (vitella paradoxa) for the domestic and international market and the chocolate industry But decline and loss of that biodiversity – habitats, fertility, productivity, and economic opportunities; loss of food, water, energy, health and subsistence security Driving forces of decline incl. natural habitats conversion to agricultural land & urban settlements; infrastructure development ; overexploitation of biological resources; introduction of invasive alien species; and pollution of air, water and soilA continent under pressure Unique, diverse and contrasted natural assets
  12. 12. 17% of natural forests and 31% of « other forested lands » 2nd tropical forest (Congo Bassin) Forest s Agriculture Part moyenne des PFNL dans le revenu total des ménages en Afrique rurale : 21,4% - 20% en Tanzanie, 27% en Éthiopie, jusqu'à 44% en Zambie.... Les insectes constituent une autre source de protéines, de minéraux et de vitamines. Environ 250 espèces comestibles répertoriées 65 % of uncultivated arable lands Extraordinalrily diversified pool of NTFPs Mais seulement 6% de $ 88 milliards (sous estimé) A continent under pressure Unique, diverse and contrasted natural assets Yet, the region, which was a net exporter of food in the 1990s, now foots a bill of US $35 Billion just for rice. Subsaharan Africa now exports less than Thaïland (Africa Progress Report, APR 2014) Africa uses less improved seeds and fertilizers than any other region, and its soils are literally mined as a consequence : «It is estimated that 8 million tons of nutrients are depleted every year in Africa. » (APR, 2014)
  13. 13. In the rest of the world, processing represents 68% to 80% of the value added. In Africa, the opposite is true: ⅔ VAB comes from low added value activities: logs, sawnwood, firewood ...
  14. 14. For timber, cane and bamboo and wooden furniture, African countries have a trade deficit of more than US $ 1 billion While Asian countries recorded a trade surplus of 66.3 billion US dollars and Latin American countries 6.8 billion US dollars during the same period. The furniture industry in Asia is booming, with Vietnamese exports alone reaching US $ 7 billion in 2016 (ITTO 2017). For 08 tertiary processed wood products, Indonesia makes $ 28.12 billion surplus; alone printing and writing paper: $ 19.6 billion more Value-added processing generates on average 4 to 12 times more jobs than a primary sawmill (Hierold, 2010).
  15. 15. Impacts of climate change  Significant losses of African plant species  More than 50% of some bird and mammal species  Drop in African lake productivity by 20 to 30% by 2100  Impacts on coastal water systems, sea level rises, changes in upwellings, sea elevations and changes in sea surface temperature an impact on coastal ecosystems. Africa's current population of 1.25 billion is expected to double by 2050  Strong pressure on biodiversity and the contributions of nature to people  unless innovative policies and strategies are in place and implemented.  Rapid and unplanned urbanization is putting considerable pressure on urban infrastructure and the demand for services, including water supply, food supply, pollution control and waste management, as well as energy supply. households and industrial development Climate change and Population growth Africa under pressure
  16. 16. Key Drivers of Change in Africa's Biodiversity by Sub-region and Ecosystem Type
  17. 17. Africa has options  Range of options for governance and the sustainable use of biodiversity for the benefit of its people. The choice of governance options and appropriate policies is essential  Africa's existing policies, strategies, plans and programs at the national, subregional and regional levels are moving in the right direction by addressing the underlying direct and indirect threats to biodiversity and the contributions of nature, guaranteeing inclusive development. green and blue economies that promote a good quality of life.  Actions by African governments to protect biodiversity and the contributions of nature to populations have contributed to the recovery of threatened species, particularly in key biodiversity areas, and these efforts could be strengthened (B5).  Many recognized ecosystems of ecological, social, economic and cultural importance at the regional and global levels have been classified as protected (14.7% of the continent's land and 5.4% of the seas under national jurisdiction), or considered as protected areas. important for conservation (A5) The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services www.ipbes.net
  18. 18. Africa has options Africa’s population is young, with more favorable ratios between workers and inactive compared to other parts of the world Our urban areas are still developing: it is possible to build green sustainable cities
  19. 19.  Africa has the opportunity to take advantage of a rich biodiversity and use it for its economic development. Africa begins with the benefit of a small ecological footprint  Africa is in a unique position to adopt a more balanced approach to development. It is the only region that has not yet industrialized: it can move directly to a Third Industrial Revolution green-blue economy  It can accelerate its structural transformation by changing paradigm. Governments who want to « converge » with the rest of the world must do it a bit differently and make sure to acquire the right technologies, make the right innovations and investments, and resolve financing by using the countries’ internal possibilities Africa has options
  20. 20.  Biotech in the form of GM crops being promoted for years as a possible response to low agricultural productivity, Africa is not going in that direction. Burkina Faso's 2016 decision to phase out Monsanto's genetically modified Bt cotton production is the latest indicator.  Ecological intensification of agriculture, which relies solely on natural processes such as biomass, indigenous micro-organisms and symbiotic micro-organisms, is an alternative to chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Their significant market potential has been barely scratched.  The potential of pastoralism is immense. The AU 2010 Policy Framework for Pastoralism shows that there is population growth and shrinking and fragmentation of land, resource conflicts, pastoral resource security, climate change and rises in food prices and financial crises. But pastoralists, who feed their animals only on natural pastures, can achieve productivity rates as high as in modern ranches. Pastoralism has this potential, particularly because it is based on the indigenous knowledge acquired over the ages by generations of pastoralists. Ecological intensification, GMOs, pastoral systems Africa has options
  21. 21. The future Scenarios are underutilized in decision-making in Africa. The majority of scenario studies identified were exploratory (80%) and strongly oriented towards modeling the impacts of climate change. A concerted effort is needed to build the capacity of African researchers, policymakers, and institutions to understand, implement, and use scenario analysis in a meaningful way for intervention planning and informed decision-making. Achieving the African Union's vision of an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa by 2063 and associated Sustainable Development Goals and Aichi Biodiversity Targets is problematic in a Global Fortress- like national sovereignty, autonomy and security. It is also unlikely that the trajectories of the policy reform and market-force scenarios fully meet the above-mentioned vision, given their greater propensity to undermine the natural resource base in the long run. However, regional archetypes of sustainability and local sustainability offer the most likely options for achieving multiple, coupled goals. Anticipate on various possible futures scenarios The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services www.ipbes.net
  22. 22. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services www.ipbes.net
  23. 23. 355 scenario studies, 2005+ numerous different possible futures for Africa, wide range of geographies population, urbanization, consumption and use of natural resources are expected to increase in the 5 major trajectories Increased water, food and energy trade-offs with economic growth SDG of eradicating hunger without compromising water quality is unlikely
  24. 24. Link regional and global trends using the scenarios and policy tools needed to build the "future we want"
  25. 25. Strengthening African transformation frameworks (with changes)
  26. 26. 3.Going Farther: At the Science- Policy Interface
  27. 27. BES issues are complex, interconnected and often interlinked, as potential outcomes and entry points for policy making.  Water, conservation and energy have an impact on food systems, people, health and poverty  Governance and tenure issues have turned into security issues  This is amplified by climate change, which is now being redesigned in terms of security.  Disproportionate impact on youth and women  Loss of ethno-scientific knowledge needed for more ecological growth solutions For example
  28. 28. www.ipbes.net Population Climate change Energy Invasive Sustainable Livelihoods and ecosystems / green-blue economy Aïchi targets SDGs Agenda 2063 alien species
  29. 29. Climate change as an opportunity “The strange parallel” between carbon emissions and the wealth of nations Data sources: World GDP: Knoema, http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts; EU 28 GDP: Eurostat, https://www.stat.ee/29958; Emissions and emissions per capita: Netherland Environmental Agency, 2014, http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/jrc-2014-trends-in-global-co2-emissions-2014-report-93171.pdf Per capita emissions and GDP correlation, 10 top emitters 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Emissions per capita GDP per capita 2013 (in $US 1,000) Note: Germany is the only EU 28 country among the big 10 emitters; it appears twice, as a country and as member of EU 28, to illustrate higher per capita trends (GDP and emissions) than the EU 28 average. Worldwide, Australia has the highest GDP (US$64,429) and a high emission per capita (16.6), in par with the US
  30. 30. Millions of energy- poor disconnected Africans, who earn less than US$2.50 a day, constitute a US$10-billion yearly energy market Invest US$55 B/y until 2030 to achieve universal access Africa energy problem, an investment opportunity Original: APR 2015 The world's most expensive electricity - A village woman in a northern Nigeria spends 60 to 80 times more per unit for her energy than a resident of NYC or London Huge clean energy potential  natural gas, hydro, solar, wind and geothermal power Shortages cost 2 -4 % points of GDP per year.
  31. 31. >< tension Development of resilient infrastructures, industrialisation and inclusive and sustainable innovations Inclusive &sustainable growth inclusive productivity diversification and innovation formalization and growth of SMEs and micro entreprises decoupling of economic growth and environmental degradation Agricultural productivity & small farmers income X2 Sustainable food systems and resilient farm practices
  32. 32. E1. Africa can move towards meeting its commitments and goals by linking its industrial transformation to adaptive multi-stakeholder and multi-level governance, as well as better integration of indigenous and local knowledge into the economy and public policies. E2. 'Polycentric' governance options that leverage synergies and offer multiple benefits, relying on a supportive environment, can help balance ecosystem access and allocation patterns in Africa
  33. 33. Thank You