The document discusses three main housing challenges in Australia: affordability, supply, and suburbanization. It provides details on population growth, tenure patterns, settlement patterns, increasing housing prices and rents, declining affordability, uneven housing supply, and continued low-density suburban expansion. Key issues addressed include declining homeownership, increasing private renting and housing costs, uneven growth in housing supply, urban sprawl, and infrastructure and environmental impacts of suburbanization.

1. Housing challenges
in Australia
ProSPER.Net Leadership training program: Leadership for Urban Sustainable Development,
14 th November, 2018
Tony Dalton
Centre for Urban Research
RMIT University, Melbourne,

2. A glimpse of my early housing career

3. Introduction
• Urban development and leadership
• Introduction to the Australian housing system
• Tenure pattern
• Population and household growth
• Settlement pattern
• Three main challenges
• Affordability: housing prices, rents and income
• Supply: responding to sustained demand for more housing
• Suburbanisation: housing provision in low density cities

4. Sustainable urban development and leadership
• SDGs are objectives, especially SDG 11: Sustainable cities and communities,
that should guide the production and reproduction of urban space
• Leaders must develop an understanding of the institutional arrangements that
are used to produce and reproduce urban space
• Institutions are stable, valued, recurring patterns of behaviour embedded in
the accepted practices of actors within groups and networks of groups
• Sustainable urban development leadership is about changing institutions and
their practices that produce and reproduce urban space

5. Introduction to the
Australian housing system

6. Population and
household
growth
• Australia is a ‘settler society’
living on lands never ceded
by Indigenous people
• Immigration and natural
increase continues to drive
population increase (Trading Economics 2017)

7. Australia
housing
tenure history
• A home ownership society
especially after WWII
• Private renting a second
class tenure
• Public housing small and
residual
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1911
1918
1925
1932
1939
1946
1953
1960
1967
1974
1981
1988
1995
2002
DwellingNo(millions)
Tenuremix(per-cent)
Home owners
Private
tenants
Public
housing
tenants
Total
occupied
dwellings
Not specified
(Dalton, 2018)

8. Australia
recent tenure
trends
• Declining homeownership
rate
• Owners without mortgage
declining
• Owners with mortgage
increasing
• Private renting increasing
• Public/social housing
declining
(Trading Economics 2016)

9. Change in
household
type 1991-16
Melbourne
• Decline in household size
• Decline in share of households
with children
• Growth in share of households
• Without children
• One parent families
• Lone person
(.id 2018)

10. Australia
settlement
pattern
• Large (capital) city – one per
state and territory
• Immigration and urban growth
• Suburban and owner-occupied
• Long run policy has supported
suburban homeownership
(World Population Review 2018)

11. Density within
metropolitan
capitals
• Sydney the densest city
• Canberra and Adelaide
the least dense
• Melbourne dense central
area with suburbs
beyond
(Loader 2012)

12. The affordability challenge:
housing prices, rents and income

13. Tenure and
housing costs
• Outright owners have very low
housing costs
• Public housing tenants
housing costs moderated by
rent policy
• Low income purchasers and
private tenants experience
‘housing stress’
All households: housing costs as a proportion of gross
income for all tenure groups by income quintiles, 2011–12
(Dalton, T. 2014)

14. Sustained
house price
increases
• Real increase in dwelling
prices for all locations in
Melbourne
• Prices in inner/middle suburbs
always greater than outer
areas
• Price difference between
inner and outer areas has
increased
House price distance gradients, Melbourne1990–2010
(Dalton, T. 2014)

15. Prices for lower
cost
housing have
increased most
• Price of a dwelling in the
lowest (1st and 2nd)
deciles increased more
than 100 %
• Price of a dwelling in the
5th, 6th and 7th deciles
increased by about 70%.
Per-cent change in dwelling prices by price decile
2003-04 to 2015-16
(Daly, J., et al. 2017)

16. Owner occupier
and rental
housing finance
• Owner occupiers and
landlords borrow for
purchase
• Rising household
indebtedness
• Rising house prices
(Reserve Bank of Australia 2018)

17. Public housing: ‘a dead and broken system’
Post WWII arrangements
Objectives Supporting interests
Overcome housing
shortage
All professions, unions, RSL etc
Post war govt policy agencies
Housing industry associations
Affordable worker
housing
Industry departments and companies
Local government
Economic demand
management
Treasury
Reserve Bank
Slum reclamation
Welfare and health professions
Planning and architecture professions
Construction
innovation
Engineering and architecture professions
Unions
Home ownership
support
Cooperative housing societies
Tenants
Current arrangements
Objectives Supporting interests
House low income
and otherwise
disadvantaged
households
Welfare and homeless persons service NGOs
Housing researchers
Tenant organisations
Some local government authorities
Community housing organisations
Other divisions of human service departments
Slide title refers to article Jacobs, K., et al. (2013)

18. Homelessness
increasing
• Nationally case load
increase (AHIW) 22% and
census increase (ABS)
14%
• NSW increase is the
standout jurisdiction
Change in scale of homelessness by jurisdiction,
2011-16
(Pawson, H. et al. 2018)

19. Supplying new housing:
responding to sustained demand

20. Melbourne urban
consolidation
policy
• Growth forecast – 2016 4.7m
increasing to 7.6/9.8 m by
2061
• Redirect growth: decline at
the fringe and increase in
existing city – 30/70 to 70/30
• Grow medium density and
high rise housing

21. Growth in supply
highly differentiated
by price
• Growth weakest in most
affordable areas
• Growth strongest in middle
price segments
• Most expensive housing
growth in inner city units
Growth in stock of houses and units between 2005/6
and 2013/14, by real price decile, per cent
Ong, R., et al. 2017

22. New housing
supply relates to
the labour
market
• The supply of housing is
closely related to the
availability of jobs
• House supply relatively even
across deciles
• Unit supply greatest in job
rich areas
Growth in stock of houses and units between 2005/6
and 2013/14, by job decile, per cent
Ong, R., et al. 2017

23. Land and
housing
industry
typology
• Industry arrangements
highly differentiated
• Timing of supply responses
to increased demand vary
• No new supply for low
income market segments
Ong, R., et al. 2017

24. Continuing suburbanisation
through low density development

25. Rural land to urban land
Cranbourne in south east Melbourne, December 2012 and March 2017

26. Planning for
suburban
growth
• Growth corridors with
master planned estates
• Lot size ↓ two storey houses ↑
• Density 15/17 dwgs/hec
• Sustained demand for lots

27. Suburban
fringe
expansion
issues
• Increasing spatial inequality
• Socioeconomic disadvantage
• Biodiversity loss
• Poor public health outcomes
• Loss of food production land
• Infrastructure allocative
efficiency issues

28. Politics of
suburban
expansion
• Formation of National Growth
Areas Alliance - 20 outer local
authorities
• Outer suburban advocacy
intensifies
• Responses by state government
• Symbolic politics 1: Inquire and
consult
• Symbolic politics 2: Suburbs
portfolio
• Tax: Growth Area Infrastructure
Contribution
• Planning: Precinct Structure
Plans

29. Suburban
production
regime actors
Actor group
Industry
assoc’s
Policy positions Politics
Landowners
• Farmers
• Amenity res
• Speculators
• Opposed to up-lift
tax
• Divided on UGB
expansion
• Individual
submissions
• Episodic
mobilisations
Exchange
professionals
• Real estate
• Valuers
REIA Neutral on UGB and
tax
Focus on
regulation of
agents
Land
developers
UDIA Support continuous
development with
research and policy
statements
• Submissions
• Policy
statements
• Media
• Awards
House
builders
HIA Support continuous
development with
research and policy
statements
• Submissions
• Policy
statements
• Media
• Awards
• Producers speak through well
resourced and organised
industry associations
• Strong positions on
• expanding the urban growth
boundary (UGB)
• New urban infrastructure
provision to support outward
expansion

30. Conclusion: issues
• Urban housing growth integral to economy based on
continued immigration
• Declining housing affordability and increases in marginal
housing and homelessness
• Increasing difference between the inner and outer house
prices
• Increasing spatial inequality – income and jobs –with
‘affordable’ housing on the fringe

31. Conclusion: policy settings
State government level
• Urban consolidation through
redevelopment
• New suburb issues recognised with
limited additional infrastructure
support
• Support suburban expansion
through the planning system
• Maintain the status quo in the
public housing system
Federal government level
• Primary responsibility for tax policy
but little focus on housing and tax
• Income support, including
demand side rent assistance, but
housing outcomes not examined
• Reduced support to the states to
maintain public housing provision
• Limited support through states for
support for homeless

32. References
Loader, C. (2012). "Comparing the residential densities of Australian cities (2011)." Charting Transport: looking at transport through graphs and maps.
Retrieved 11th November, 2018, from https://chartingtransport.com/2012/10/19/comparing-the-residential-densities-of-australian-cities-2011/.
Trading Economics (2016). "Australian Home Ownership Rate." Retrieved 11th November, 2018, from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/home-
ownership-rate.
Trading Economics (2017). "Australia population." Retrieved 11th November, 2018, from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/home-ownership-rate.
Dalton, T. (2018). Another suburban transition? Responding to climate change. Urban sustainabilty transitions: Australian cases - international perspective.
T. Moore, R. Horne, F. de Haan and B. Gleeson. Singapore, Springer.
.id (2018). Change in household type 1991 to 2011,".id the population experts." Retrieved 11th November, 2018, from https://home.id.com.au/.
World Population Review (2018). "Australia Population, (2018-09-18)." Retrieved 16th November 2018, from
http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/australia/.
Dalton, T. (2014). Housing Policy: Changes and Prospects. Social policy in Australia : understanding for action 3rd edition. A. McClelland and P. Smyth.
Melbourne, Oxford University Press. 3rd edition.
Daly, J., et al. (2017). Three charts on: poorer Australians bearing the brunt of rising housing costs. The Conversation. Melbourne, The Conversation.
Reserve Bank of Australia (2018). "Housing prices and household debt." Chart pack: household sector. Retrieved 12 November, 2018, from
https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/.
Jacobs, K., Berry, M, Dalton, T. (2013). "‘A dead and broken system?’: ‘insider’ views of the future role of Australian public housing." International Journal of
Housing Policy 13.(2): 183-201.
Pawson, H., Parsell, C., Saunders, P., Hill, T., Liu, E. (2018). Australian Homelessness Monitor. Melbourne, Launch Housing.
Ong, R., Dalton, T., Gurran, N., Phelps, C., Rowley, S. and Wood, G. (2017) Housing supply responsiveness in Australia: distribution, drivers and institutional
settings, AHURI Final Report No. 281, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute Limited, Melbourne, http://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-
reports/281, doi:10.18408/ahuri-8107301.