A presentation about managing complexity and change with a focus on giscience in the global south.

1. Vulnerability and Change in the Global South:
A Spatially Informed Approach
Hamish Robertson, Doctoral Student, AIHI, UNSW
Nick Nicholas, Honorary Research Fellow, ARC, POWH
Associate Professor Andrew Georgiou, IAHI, UNSW
Associate Professor Julie Johnson, IAHI, UNSW
Jo Travaglia PhD, Faculty of Medicine, UNSW

2. Contents
• Introduction
• Managing complexity – risks, hazards and
disasters
• Urbanisation
• Climate change
• Population growth and ageing
• Spatial literacy for 21st century problems
• Example
• Conclusion

3. Introduction
• Taking a spatial approach to rising complexity,
interconnectedness and fragility in natural and
human systems (risk, hazards, disasters,
vulnerabilities)
• Modelling scenarios under varying conditions to
test options for intervention (non-linear, iterative)
• Spatial visualisation and interaction for a global
audience
• Enhancing knowledge production opportunities
and options
• A critical view of ‘development theory’ in an inter-
connected world

4. Risks, Hazards and Disasters

5. Japan - 11 March, 2011
Massive Impact and Ongoing Consequences – Long Tail Events!

6. Differential Effects: Vulnerable Groups
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/mar/13/japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-japan

7. Integrated Spatial Monitoring
and Visualisation

8. NOAA Models Debris Patterns
Source:

9. Earthquake and Tsunami Debris Reaches Mainland US
Source: BBC News US and Canada 7 June 2012 Last updated at 08:29 GMT

11. Population Ageing as a Global
Phenomenon

12. Population – Growth and Ageing
• Current estimates suggest 7 billion people and growing
• Compositional effects include significant ageing,
variable rates of ageing by country and diversification of
the aged as a category construct
• Ageing already effects the affluent countries but is
growing rapidly in ‘developing’ countries with socio-
economic differentiation (richer versus poorer)
• Population ageing and its effects will diversify and
urban-rural effects increase
• Epidemiological and treatment impacts are significant –
neurodegenerative diseases e.g. Alzheimer’s disease
• Important cognitive impacts including communication,
resilience and response capacities – e.g. frail elderly

13. Global Ageing Trends (IMF)

14. Compositional Change

15. Urbanisation and Intensification

16. Trends in Urbanisation
• Urbanisation is continuing at a rapid rate globally
with some recent indications pace may be
slowing – see World Bank, 2013
• Major growth in number of ‘megacities’ (now
defined as 10m+) will reach 37 or more by 2025,
a mere 12 years away
• Cities make attractive markets but are major
consumers of resources and have significant
environmental effects – heat islands etc
• Quality of life (lives) will be increasingly
significant as no domestic economy to fall back
on for many immigrants from rural areas

18. Caiwuwei Urban Village, Shenzhen

19. Global Megacities
Source: World Urbanization Prospects, The 2011 Revision

20. Major Urban Challenges
Source: The Three Ages of Megacities, Ericsson

21. Economic, Social and
Environmental Consequences

22. (In)formalisation and Persistent Poverty
Source: The World Bank, 2013

23. And the complexities of living in them

24. Environmental Change

25. Cities and Coastal Flood Risk

26. Climate Change and Volatility
• Scope and nature of climatic change
• Heat stress on human and natural systems
• Air quality and wider pollution impacts
• Transport systems and environmental stresses
• Water availability, quality, commodification,
competition and ownership issues

28. Consequences for the Global South
Natural catastrophe fatalities were highest in developing
and emerging countries in the period 1980–2012
Source: Munich RE 2013

29. Spatial Literacy for this Century
• Simulation, visualisation and spatialisation
• Neogeography and related fields e.g. crowd
sourcing
• Pervasive spatial technologies including virtual
earth environments (e.g. Google Earth)
• Conceptual understanding and awareness – don’t
look to health care!
• Expertise, utilisation and trust (ethical) issues
• Knowledge integration – how to link and extend a
complex system and break out of knowledge silos

30. Conclusion
• Space, place and location matter in human
contexts including population/ageing,
urbanisation and environmental change
• The ‘developed’ north and the south are
increasingly enmeshed
• Vulnerabilities can be simulated, visualised and
spatialised for practical purposes
• Spatial science offers an over-arching and
connecting approach to these important issues

31. Run KML file