HS2 Action Alliance's presentation from 2012 Party Political Conferences detailing he fatal flaws in the business case for HS2

1. HS2: A Bad Deal
for Britain

10. HS2: A Bad Deal for Britain
• HS2 is a waste of money.
• HS2 is London centric and won’t
cure the north-south divide.
• There are better options for
improving our railways and
economy than £33 billion on HS2.
• HS2 is environmentally destructive.

11. HS2: A bad deal for reducing aviation
• There are no flights between London and
Birmingham or Leeds for HS2 to replace.
• Flights between London and Manchester
have fallen and overwhelmingly cater for
passengers transferring to international
destinations.
• HS2 is not an alternative to airport
expansion, it makes it more likely- it will be
much easier in many areas of the UK to travel
to Heathrow by train.

12. Demand for Domestic Aviation is Falling

13. The airlines love HS2
“UK domestic aviation will be unaffected by the
limited, London-centric nature of any high-
speed rail investment that might be forthcoming
over the next few decades.
Indeed, there is a very strong argument that
aviation which serves regions like the West
Midlands and the north-west will actually see
an increase in demand as a result of high
speed rail”
FlyBe

14. HS2: A Bad Deal for Capacity
• Claims that the West Coast Main
Line is full do not stack up.
• Investing so much in a corridor
which already has one of our
fastest and least crowded
mainline services is a gross
misallocation of resources.

15. Network Rail’s own figures confirm
Euston is one of London’s least busy
major stations

16. And it has the most spare capacity
Station Service Group Total Demand as a %
of Total Capacity
Waterloo SW Main Line 110%
Paddington Main Line 109%
Moorgate All services 103%
London Bridge Terminating 102%
Victoria Kent routes 97%
Blackfriars All services 97%
Fenchurch Street All services 94%
Marylebone All services 91%
Liverpool Street West Anglia 90%
St Pancras Midland Mainline 79%
Kings Cross ECML 74%
Euston Long Distance 64%

17. Capacity Crisis?
• Passenger kilometres have not been growing at
6% per annum, i.e., journeys are getting shorter
• Most journeys in Britain are well below the
minimum efficient distance for high speed rail
• The Government has refused Freedom of
Information requests about loadings on West
Coast Main Line services
• Crowding on London Midland Euston outer
suburban services is a result of inefficient
operating practices, and short trains

18. The West Coast Mainline is not “full”
InterCity West Coast is unique
because it has a considerable
amount of unused capacity that will
expand further with the addition of
106 new Pendolino coaches by the
start of our new franchise.
First Group, August 2012

20. HS2: A Bad Deal for Carbon Reduction
• HS2 is not part of a low carbon or sustainable
transport policy.
• HS2 Ltd’s own analysis shows low numbers of
passengers would shift from car and air to
using the new rail line.
• HS2 would generate significant numbers of
new journeys, all of which would emit more
carbon than journeys on the existing rail
network.

21. 89% of journeys on HS2 will increase
emissions

22. HS2: A Bad Deal for the Environment
• The environmental impact of HS2 is
enormous, unacceptable and has not been
properly explained by the Government.
• The irreversible damage to the physical
environment caused by HS2 and the lack of
saving in carbon emissions should be
sufficient to cancel the project on
sustainability grounds alone.

23. Domestic aviation accounts for a small
proportion of our emissions

24. HS2 is not “Green”
High speed rail is not a „get out of jail‟ free card
for carbon emissions and climate change. The
proposed HS2 trains would burn 50% more
energy mile-for-mile than the Eurostar and HS2
would produce more than twice the emissions
of an intercity train.
Professor John Whitelegg Green Party
Spokesperson on Sustainable Development

25. If HS2 proceeds, the impact on wildlife and
biodiversity will be devastating
•Over 50 ancient woodlands destroyed
•10 sites of Special Scientific Interest
directly damaged
•Over 40 other sites of Special Scientific
Interest adversely impacted
•Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty
changed forever
•Over 5000 acres of productive land
required for construction, just for stage
one alone

26. HS2 will devastate wildlife
HS2’s proposed route will
destroy over 50 ancient
woodlands, eliminating
irreplaceable habitats for some
of our most precious wildlife

28. HS2: A Bad Deal For Jobs
• HS2 will create few jobs – HS2 Ltd’s own
figures show this.
• HS2 will benefit London – increasing
jobs there rather than in the regions.
• The opportunity costs of HS2 are vast –
the funds allocated for this project could
instead be used to transform our
transport system to benefit every
community in the UK.

29. HS2: A Bad deal for Jobs
‘Claims about the “transformational” nature of
transport investments should be generally
discounted because they have no convincing
evidence base to support them’.
Professor Henry Overman
London School of Economics
House of CommonsTransport Select Committee.

30. HS2: A Bad Deal for the North
• Direct journeys between our great
northern cities will not be possible
on HS2.
• HS2 will require over £5 billion in
cuts to existing services- including on
the West Coast Main Line and
Midland Main Line

31. West Coast Main Line Service Cuts With HS2
City Current service Service post HS2 Service Change Summary HS2 service
Coventry 3 trains/hour, I intermediate 1 train/hour, three Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx Nil
stop intermediate stops 10 minute longer journey
Birmingham 3 trains/hour, 2 intermediate 1 train/hour, 4 Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. Nil (HS2 will serve
International stops intermediate stops 10 minute longer journey time Birmingham Interchange)
Birmingham New 3 trains/hour, 3 intermediate 1 train/hour, 5 Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. HS2 service to Curzon
Street stops intermediate stops 10 minute longer journey Street, three trains an hour
Sandwell and 1 train/hour, 4 intermediate 1 train/hour, 6 Approx. 10 minute longer journey Nil
Dudley stops intermediate stops
Wolverhampton 1 train/hour, 5 intermediate 1 train/hour, 7 Approx. 10 minute longer journey Nil
stops intermediate stops
Warrington 1 train/hour, non-stop No service No trains at all Phase 1 – 1 HS2 train/hour,
Phase 2 – No service
Wigan 1 train/hour, 1 intermediate 1 train/hour, 3 Approx. 10 minute longer journey Phase 1 – 1 HS2 train/hour,
stop intermediate stops Phase 2 – No service
Preston 1 train/hour, 2 intermediate 1 train/hour, 3 Approx. 5 minute longer journey 1 train/hour
stops intermediate stops
Lancaster 1 train most hours, 3 1 train/hour, 4 Approx. 5 minute longer journey Nil
intermediate stops intermediate stops
Carlisle 1 train most hours, 5 1 train/hour, 8 Approx. 15 minute longer journey Nil
intermediate stops intermediate stops
Stoke-on-Trent 2 trains/hour (1 non-stop, 1 1 train/hour, 1 Loss of hourly non-stop train Nil
with 1 intermediate stop) intermediate stop
Wilmslow 1 train/hour, 1 intermediate No service No trains at all Nil
stop
Stockport 3 trains/hour, 2 intermediate 1 train/hour, 3 Loss of 2 trains/ hour and approx. Nil
stops intermediate stops 5 minute longer journey

32. Midland Main Line Cuts with HS2
City/Town Current service Service Post Phase 2 Service Change HS2 service (Phase 2 only)
Summary
Leicester 4 trains/hour (2 non-stop) 3 trains/hour (1 non- Loss of 1 non-stop Nil
stop) train/hour
East Midlands 2 trains/hour, 2 No service 2 trains/hour calling at an “East
Parkway intermediate stops Midlands” station. Location not yet
specified, may be between
Nottingham and Derby
Nottingham 2 trains/hour 1 train an hour Loss of 1 train/hour No city centre HS2 service. “East
Midlands” HS2 station likely to have
poor rail and bus links
Derby 2 trains an hour (1 with one 2 trains/hour (1 with 10-15 minute slower No city centre HS2 service. “East
stop, 1 with 4 stops) 3 stops, 1 with 7 journey times Midlands” HS2 station likely to have
stops) poor rail and bus links
Chesterfield 2 trains/hour (1 with 2 1 train/hour, with 4 Loss of one train/hour, Nil
stops, 1 with 5 stops) stops with 10 minute longer
journey time
Sheffield 2 trains/hour (1 with 3 1 train/hour, with 5 Loss of one train per No city centre HS2 service. “South
stops, 1 with 6 stops) stops hour, 10-15 minute Yorkshire” HS2 station shown to have
slower journey times 3 trains an hour, but likely to have
poor rail and bus links

33. HS2: A Bad Deal for the Midlands
• Birmingham is not even on the main HS2 line;
it is on a branch served by trains running to a
terminus at Curzon Street, remote from New
Street (the main city station).
• Curzon Street is on the southern periphery of
the city centre, and not particularly well located
with respect to the central business district.
• Most commuter flows into Birmingham would
not be relieved by HS2
• The site of the HS2 ‘Birmingham interchange’
at Bickenhill, is in Solihull borough, but difficult
to reach from Solihull town centre

34. HS2: A Bad Deal for the Midlands
HS2 would provide no measurable time advantage for most West Midlands residents; as the
additional (transfer-to and waiting-)time at Curzon Street exceeds half an hour, HS2′s higher
speed is nullified.

35. HS2: A Bad Deal for London
• Massive disruption to the borough of Camden
• Concentrating fast trains from Scotland, Northern
England, and the Midlands, on one central
London arrival point
• Concentrating fast trains from Scotland, Northern
England, and the Midlands, on a single track in
each direction
• Dispersing central London traffic arriving from
Scotland, Northern England, and the Midlands,
from one Underground station.

36. HS2 will have just four city centre
stations: London, Birmingham, Leeds
and Manchester.
Everyone else loses with HS2
• Sheffield — Northampton • Sheffield — Nottingham
• Peterborough — Leeds • Chester — Milton Keynes
• London — Wakefield • Wolverhampton — London
• London — Bradford • Coventry — London
• Stoke-on-Trent — London
• London — Stockport
• Stoke-on-Trent — Watford
• Watford — Manchester
• Halifax — Coventry
• Milton Keynes — Bolton • Nottingham — Huddersfield
• Doncaster — London • Bristol — Derby

37. HS2: A Bad Deal for Scotland
• HS2 represents a huge investment to
benefit very few Scottish rail travellers –
92% of all rail journeys in Scotland begin
and end in Scotland.
• The funds that Scotland will contribute
to HS2 would be better used to improve
its own transport infrastructure.

38. Even with HS2’s massively
overinflated demand model
and other assumptions the
West Coast Main Line to
Scotland never gets more than
50% full.

39. The view from America
In 2008 US Amtrak’s Inspector General
reported that six European nations’
operations required a subsidy of US$42bn
annually
“…Virtually no HSR lines anywhere in the
world have earned enough revenue to
cover both their construction and operating
costs.”
US Congressional Research Service

40. Margaret Hodge MP
Chair, House of Commons Public
Accounts Committee
“Before going ahead with HS2 we need a robust
cost benefit analysis.
Some of the Department’s assumptions about the benefits of faster travel
are simply untenable. For example, the time business travellers save by
using high speed rail is valued at £54 per hour yet the time commuters
save getting to and from work is only valued at £7 per hour.
It is difficult to see how this can be justified.”