A Presentation by Guy Dauncey to the Cowichan Solar Workshop, October 25, 2014

1. Solar Cowichan
Guy Dauncey, October 2014
EJ Young

2. Solar energy travels at the speed of light
1,000 million kilometres an hour

3. Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds

4. More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour
than humans use in a year.

5. 200 Million Years ago…..

6. 200 Million Years ago…..

7. 200 Million Years ago…..
Stored solar energy = future fossil fuels

9. As we burn the fossil fuels…
GGuuyy DDaauunncceeyy 22000077
wwwwww..eeaarrtthhffuuttuurree..ccoomm

10. Carbon dioxide,
like the other greenhouse
gases, traps
HEAT
in the troposphere

11. Burning fossil fuels
and destroying Earth’s forests
Is causing THIS

12. The current increase in global warming is
"...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima
atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s
how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.”
- James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

14. The last time the world was
3°C warmer, during the Pliocene,
the sea level was up to
25 metres
higher.
We are currently on track for
4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer

15. If global warming exceeds
1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising heat

17. Which path
will you
take?
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

22. 100%
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
NOW

24. For 30,000 years, we harvested
the Sun’s energy through firewood

25. For 300 years, we have been harvesting
it through fossil fuels

26. It was fossil fuels
that launched the Industrial Age,
and the modern world.

27. It is solar energy
expressed through fossil fuels
that has made advanced engineering,
solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

28. We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels.
We can praise them,
and then say
“Enough!”

29. Two Possible
Futures
One YES
One NO

30. The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
30,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
Science
Engineering
Enlightenment
Two billion years
Solar Energy

31. The Age of
Firewood
The Age of
Fossil Fuels
The Solar Age

33. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
A billion years
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com

34. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
A billion years
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
and fall in price.

36. Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

37. Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

38. Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

39. Kurilpa Bridge, Australia

40. Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK

41. Solar railway
Paris to Amsterdam
16,000 panels
3.4 kilometres
3,300 MWh a year

42. Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2014

46. Price of Solar PV
per Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
A thousandfold fall
in the price of solar PV
since 1977

47. 100 GW
in 2012
Solar PV 7000% increase
since 2000
137 GW
in 2013

48. Mass production = falling prices

49. Average BC home electricity per year
Home, baseboard heat: 20,000 kWh
Home, gas heat: 11,000 kWh
LED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh
4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
om

52. The higher the price of electricity
and the sunnier the land,
the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives

53. The higher the price of electricity
and the sunnier the land,
the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives

54. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
om
2014: 4 kW PV System
$3.50 to $4 per watt
$14-16,000 + tax
4,400 kWh year

55. Why there will never be a Solar Feed-in Tariff
in British Columbia
BC Hydro generation 50,000 GWh a year
Zero-carbon (hydro & wind) 95%
Potential new wind, river 20,000 GWh
Price of run-of-river energy 7-15 cents kWh
Price of wind energy 10-12 cents kWh
Price of solar PV (2014) 25 cents kWh
Export price for surplus power 2-3 cents kWh

56. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
4 kW @ $4 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
Cost per watt $4
4 kW + tax $16,800
3% finance $28,620
kWh per year 4,400
30-year savings $27,112

57. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
4 kW @ $4 per watt
Price @ 0% capital cost: 12.72 cents kwh
Price @ 3% capital cost: 21.68 cents kwh
Price @ 5% capital cost: 26.63 cents kwh

58. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
10 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
Cost per watt $3
10 kW $30,000
3% finance $45,420
kWh per year 11,000
30-year savings $68,000
Result +$22,500

59. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
10 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
5% finance
Cost per watt $3
10 kW $30,000
5% finance $57,630
kWh per year 11,000
30-year savings $68,000
Result +$10,500

60. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
10 kW @ $3 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
5% finance
Price @ 3% capital cost: 13.7 cents kwh
Price @ 5% capital cost: 17.4 cents kwh

61. 2012
$5/watt
2012
$2.75/watt

62. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00

63. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00
Florida market price: $3.33

64. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00
Florida market price: $3.33
BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50

65. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00
Florida market price: $3.33
BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50
Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15

66. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00
Florida market price: $3.33
BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50
Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15
BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00

67. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00
Florida market price: $3.33
BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50
Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15
BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00
Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60

68. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00
Florida market price: $3.33
BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50
Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15
BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00
Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60
Germany, market price: $2.10

69. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00
Florida market price: $3.33
BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50
Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15
BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00
Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60
Germany, market price: $2.10
Australia, Residential: $1.85

70. What does solar PV cost?
Price per installed watt
BC market price: $4.00
Florida market price: $3.33
BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50
Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15
BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00
Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60
Germany, market price: $2.10
Australia, Residential: $1.80
Australia, Utility-scale : $1.50

71. 4 kw Solar Prices in Australia, 2012-2014

72. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
4 kW @ $2.60 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
Cost per watt $2.60
4 kW + tax $11,000
3% finance $16,650
kWh per year 4,400
30-year savings $27,112
Result +$10,462

73. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
4 kW @ $2.60 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
5% finance
Cost per watt $2.60
4 kW + tax $11,000
5% finance $21,150
kWh per year 4,400
30-year savings $27,112
Result +$6,000

74. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
4 kW @ $2.60 per watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
30 year power: 132,000 kwh
0% finance $11,000
3% finance $16,650
5% finance $21,150
Price @ 0% capital cost: 8.3 cents kwh
Price @ 3% capital cost: 12.6 cents kwh
Price @ 5% capital cost: 16.0 cents kwh

75. “Our research suggests that as they become
cheaper, the overall (solar) costs to
consumers are poised to fall to
$2.30 (a watt) by 2015
and to $1.60 by 2020.”
The disruptive potential of solar power
McKinsey, April 2014

76. The Solar
Tsunami

77. The unresolved solar problem: power storage
Tesla
Battery Traditional
Battery
Elon Musk is Chairman and largest shareholder in SolarCity
And CEO of Tesla…
They are collaborating on industrial grade batteries

78. Long term self-financing
Value for future purchasers
Reduced transmission losses
Resiliency against power outages, earthquakes
Creates more jobs per MWh than other kinds of energy
Positive climate response when electricity is gas or coal

79. $100 spent on renewable energy
may circulate and be spent
10 times before it leaves the country,
creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value.
$100 spent on imported oil
$70 leaves the country
$22 goes to the oil company
$3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station
owner.

80. By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW
could be losing up to $1,000 a year

82. Every commercial roof could look like this,
and could be earning up to $10,000 a year

83. BC’s Solar Future
5 million residents = 2 million residences
1/2 million roofs x 4 kw = 2,200 gigawatt-hours a year
+ Commercial and Utility PV = 3-5,000 Gwh a year
Future demand: 70,000 GWh
Solar PV = 4-7% of BC’s future summer demand

84. Dan Kammen &
Ditlev Engel
Copenhagen
Climate Council
2009

86. Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC
5,000 GWh x 0.91 = 4,500 jobs

87. Thin Film Solar PV

90. Thin film solar

94. Transparent
solar
windows

95. Impact of snow’s high albedo on solar PV performance
How much increased yield?

96. 100% increased PV yield
due to solar reflection off the snow
December 2010
Ann & Gord Baird’s Eco-Sense house, Victoria, BC
www.eco-sense.ca

97. 9% solar charging capacity from the car’s roof

98. Source: Hydro Quebec

99. Average EV uses 18 kWh per 100 km
10,000 km = 1,800 kWh a year
1.75 kW solar = 1,925 kWh a year

100. 2014………………
1.75 kW = $7,000
5% 25 year mortgage = $40 a month
10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

101. ……….2020
1.75 kW = $2,800
3% 25 year mortgage = $16 a month

102. Solar Charging

104. Egypt: 7 million vehicles
= 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year

105. 7 million ELECTRIC vehicles
If each travels 10,000 km a year
Average 20 kwh per 100 km
= 14,000 GWh a year

106. Solar in the Middle East
85 sq km = 14,000 GWh/year

107. Egypt = 1 million sq km

108. Egypt = 1 million sq km

109. Solar PV for
7 million vehicles
= 85 sq km
Egypt = 1 million sq km

110. Solar PV for .
7 million vehicles
= 85 sq km
Egypt = 1 million sq km

112. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

114. Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia
www.bcsea.org
BCSEA 2013
www.bcsea.org

115. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy Region?
GUY DAUNCEY
October 2014
University of Victoria

117. www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
om

118. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
om

119. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
om

122. THE CLIMATE CRISIS…
Think Globally,
VOTE
LOCALLY
On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections
BRING IT HOME

123. November 15th
Five Commitments
1. Sustainable Transportation
2. Sustainable Planning &
Development
3. Greenest Buildings
4. Sustainable Local Economy
5. Healthy Food, Healthy Nature

127. If you want to make a difference,
now would be a great time to do so.

128. Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com