Look - No Carbon! The Future of Transportation

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
LOOK – NO CARBON!
The Future of Transportation
BCSEA Victoria Chapter
January 19, 2015

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
OUR
ATMOSPHERE

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The last time the world was
3°C warmer, the sea level was up
to
25 metres higher

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The last time the world was
3°C warmer, the sea level was up
to
25 metres higher
We are currently on track for
4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Earthfuture.com Garth Lenz

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Garth Lenz

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For an 80% chance of not hitting 2°C
Budget = 506 Gt of CO2
We produce 40 Gt a year
A Global Carbon Budget

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Nature takes 55%
Atmosphere takes 45%
18 Gt is added to the atmosphere

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Nature takes 55%
Atmosphere takes 45%
18 Gt is added to the atmosphere
Budget shrinks by 18 Gt a year
Exhausted in 28 years

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How Are We Using the Oil?
Cars & light trucks 40%
Heavy trucks 13%
Flying 8%
Shipping 2.5%
Asphalt 3%
Rail freight 1%
Recreational 1%
Military 1.5%
TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%
Non-transport uses 29%

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Integrated Cost Analysis
$
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail
$

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Integrated Governance
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail

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 Carbon Taxes
 Vehicle Feebates
 Road tolls
 Municipal taxes
 General taxes
 GST
How can we pay for it?

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1 Pedestrian-Friendly Cities

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Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org

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Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus

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www.earthfuture.comPortland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org

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Guywww.restreets.org

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www.restreets.org

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Pedestrian Cities
1. Make it a Municipal priority
2. Organize Walking Audits
3. Build costs into the Transportation Budget

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2 Cycling

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In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement
is by bicycle

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 Safe bike routes and intersections
 Good bike parking
 Cycling education in schools

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Earthfuture.com Shanghai, China

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Earthfuture.com School at Assen, Holland

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Earthfuture.com A Dutch Intersection

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Electric Bicycles

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Cost: $24 million

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$24 million
3,200 km of 1.5 metre bike lane
200 - 700 km of bike lane with road widening
240 km of separated bike lane

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SHOVEL READY PROJECTS

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1. Make it a Municipal and Regional Priority
2. Build into Transportation Budgets
3. Complete the CRD Regional
Pedestrian & Cycling Masterplan

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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comCRD Pedestrian and Cycling Master Plan

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3
Public Transit

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Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage
treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.

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Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces
95% less CO2 than diesel

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100% Electric Buses

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Umea, Sweden
Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
10-20 kWh = 10 km

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On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

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Earthfuture.comWinnipeg 100% Electric Bus

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Earthfuture.comChinese BYD electric bus, being made in America

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Flash charge electric bus, Hamburg, Germany

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Flash charge electric bus, China

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Flash
charge
electric bus,
Geneva

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Vienna, Austria
Europe’s first fleet of mass-produced,
quick-charge, fully electric buses. (Seimens)

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Bus stop on Interurban Road, Victoria

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Earthfuture.com Fun with Bus Shelters

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Real-time electronic bus stops

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Hasselt, Belgium
Free transit, included in city taxes
1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership

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Malahat
30,000 vehicles a day

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Earthfuture.comLuxury Long-Distance Coaches

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An extra $12 a day over the bus
for convenience, productivity and comfort.
Needed 25 regular customers.

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Road-pricing
on the Malahat

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$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day
240 luxury coaches @ $10 a day + $10
6-8,000 passengers a day
25% reduced traffic

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Nantes, France
4 Bus Rapid Transit

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Earthfuture.comLight Rail Transit or Bus Rapid Transit?

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Light Rail Transit
5

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Rail for the Valley

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Earthfuture.com Possible Victoria LRT Route

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Victoria: $62 million/km
Calgary: $15 million/km
Calgary bus: $1.50 a ride
Calgary LRT: 27 cents a ride

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Besançon: $22 million/km

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Electric train + green electricity
= zero carbon
6

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Electrostar battery-powered train.
Being tested in UK on a 12-mile stretch at 65 miles per hour.
80,000 phosphate and hot sodium nickel salt batteries,
each the size of a BIC lighter.

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The E & N

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Railway or Bikeway?

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7 Zero-Carbon Telework

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Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems

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8 Ride-Sharing

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Earthfuture.com Real-time Ride-sharing

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Guaranteed emergency ride home
Cash-out parking
Rideshare Rewards

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See
650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
9
Car Sharing

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Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month

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Walk Bike
Food Help
Taxi
Skype
ParkRide share
Ski-lift
Maps
Ferry Fly
Car share
LRTTransit
Rail

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10 Smart Growth

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11
Electric Vehicles

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12
Freight

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Stronger Local Economies

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Electric freight train fuel economy up to
1500 ton-miles per gallon equivalent

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Huge rail capacity with the end of coal
Fossil Fuels = 77% of US freight

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Renault Radiance concept truck
20% more efficient, not electric
20% increase in freight eliminates the gain

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Earthfuture.com Electric Trucks

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Cargohopper, for Urban Deliveries, Holland
3 tonnes max, 60 km range, 20 kph top speed.

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Earthfuture.com Port of Los Angeles, full electric

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HEINEKEN, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Europe’s largest electric truck
19-tonnes truck, 9 tonnes load
200 kilometres range
Distributing Heineken® beers

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Seimens Electric Dump-Truck
Two 16-cylinder diesel engines, each with an output of
around 1,700 kW, drive four 1200 kW electric motors.
Being trialed in Siberia

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Siemens truck retro-fitted with diesel/electric
power train being trialed in Germany

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Earthfuture.com Dutch concept Electric Trucks

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Mercedes future self-driving truck, Germany
On the market by 2025

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Biofuel
Farm and forest wastes
Sewage and urban organic wastes
Cultivated seaweed
Renewable fuel
Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes
Green hydrogen
Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)

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Will there be enough?
Rocky Mountain Institute
With 84% fuel-saving potential, US demand
= 3.1 million barrels a day
US Dept. Agriculture
US farmland could sustainably provide dry
collectable biomass wastes
= 3 million barrels a day.

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Cargo-Cap
Ruhr University of Bochum
supported by the State of North Rhine-Westphalia.

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www.cargocap.com

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Double pipe: 3 million euros/kilometer
Urban highway: 13-15 million euros/kilometer
High-speed rail track: 15-18 million euros/kilometer

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Solar Electric Freight Tube
1994 US Federal Highway Administration study

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Earthfuture.com Food Tubes, UK

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Earthfuture.com Hamburg Autobahn, Germany

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Earthfuture.comShipping - 2.5% of global oil use

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Siemens Electric Car Ferry, Norway, 2015
20 minute route. 120 vehicles, 360 passengers

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80 meters long, two 450 kilowatts motors,
lithium-ion batteries
1,000 kilowatt-hours capacity

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Diesel-electric propulsion
Siemens Marine & Shipbuilding, Norway
On a three-day cruise, the Skandi Marstein used 35% less
energy than a diesel vessel.

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Solar Sailor
www.solarsailor.com

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9 MW solar panels
Retractable sails Self-unloading cargo bays
Superconducting power link
Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells

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Flying:

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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comFuture Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

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Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraft
Superconducting electric motors
Paris Airshow, 2011
Up to Mach 4. Paris to Tokyo in 2.5 hours

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EADS E-Thrust

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How Do We Get There?

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Community engagement x 20

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1. A requirement that all communities achieve zero-carbon
light transportation by 2040. Condition of federal funding
Most Important Federal Policies

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2. Major funding for cycling infrastructure

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3. Major funding for transit and light rail transit

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4. The electrification of all railways

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5. Generous incentives for electric vehicles

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6. A requirement that new cars and light trucks produce zero
grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2040

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1. R&D funding for long-distance transportation solutions

Guy Dauncey 2013
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1. R&D funding for long-distance transportation solutions
2. The appointment of well-informed champions to the
relevant ministries and agencies.

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Together, we can change the world
If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA
www.bcsea.org/join

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey
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Look - No Carbon! The Future of Transportation

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