Presentation to a class of communications students at Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, June 12, 2017.

1. June 2017
Guy Dauncey
COMMUNICATING
CLIMATE

2. Guy Dauncey is a futurist who works to develop a
positive vision of a sustainable future, and to
translate that vision into action. He lives on
Vancouver Island, in Canada.
He is founder of the BC Sustainable Energy
Association, co-founder of the Victoria Car Share
Cooperative, and the author or co-author of ten
books, including The Climate Challenge: 101
Solutions to Global Warming and
Journey to the Future: A Better World Is Possible.
He is an Honorary Member of the Planning
Institute of BC, a Fellow of the Findhorn
Foundation in Scotland, and a Fellow of the Royal
Society for the Arts, founded in Britain in 1754.
(Old photo. Add ten years.)
www.earthfuture.com
www.journeytothefuture.ca
www.thepracticalutopian.ca

4. 2009

5. Five Questions

6. First Question

7. When you think about
the future of our world,
what do you feel?

8. HOPE?
WORRY?

9. Second Question

10. Yes or No, do you agree?
“Greenhouse gases are the main
cause of current global warming.”

11. In 2014, Bart Verheggen of the Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency surveyed
1,868 climate scientists.
90% of those with more than 10 peer-reviewed
papers related to climate explicitly agreed that
greenhouse gases
were the main cause of global warming

12. Third Question

13. On a scale of 1 to 10
“What do you think will be the likely
effects of global climate change
in the next 50 to 100 years?”
1-3 Trivial or Mild
4-7 Moderate
8-10 Severe/Catastrophic

14. On a scale of 1 to 10
“What do you think will be the likely
effects of global climate change
in the next 50 to 100 years?”
1-3 Trivial or Mild 13%
4-7 Moderate 44%
8-10 Severe/Catastrophic 41%
Farnsworth & Lichter, 2011

15. Fourth Question

16. On a scale of 0-10
How confident are you that you know the
basic solutions to the climate crisis?
0-3 No to low confidence
4-7 Medium confidence
8-10 High confidence

17. Fifth Question

18. On a scale of 0-10
How confident do you feel that you
can make a positive impact of some
kind on the climate crisis,
however small?
0-3 Low confidence
4-7 Medium confidence
8-10 High confidence

19. CLIMATE COMMUNICATIONS
ACCEPTERS DENIERS

20. CLIMATE COMMUNICATIONS
ACCEPTERS DENIERS
1. Need to grasp the true
urgency of the crisis

21. CLIMATE COMMUNICATIONS
ACCEPTERS DENIERS
1. Need to grasp the true
urgency of the crisis
2. The path to engagement
is through positive
examples of success:
showing how we can
tackle the crisis

22. CLIMATE COMMUNICATIONS
ACCEPTERS DENIERS
1. Need to grasp the true
urgency of the crisis
2. The path to engagement
is through positive
examples of success:
showing how we can
tackle the crisis
3. Show positive solutions
for each sector

23. CLIMATE COMMUNICATIONS
ACCEPTERS DENIERS
1. Need to grasp the true
urgency of the crisis
2. The path to engagement
is through positive
examples of success:
showing how we can
tackle the crisis
3. Show positive solutions
for each sector
1. Play up the theme of
technological transition to
the Solar Age

24. CLIMATE COMMUNICATIONS
ACCEPTERS DENIERS
1. Need to grasp the true
urgency of the crisis
2. The path to engagement
is through positive
examples of success:
showing how we can
tackle the crisis
3. Show positive solutions
for each sector
1. Play up the theme of
technological transition to
the Solar Age
2. Compare transition from
horses to cars with
transition from fossil fuels
to solar age

25. CLIMATE COMMUNICATIONS
ACCEPTERS DENIERS
1. Need to grasp the true
urgency of the crisis
2. The path to engagement
is through positive
examples of success:
showing how we can
tackle the crisis
3. Show positive solutions
for each sector
1. Play up the theme of
technological transition to
the Solar Age
2. Compare transition from
horses to cars with
transition from fossil fuels
to solar age
3. Show examples of
renewable technologies

26. Why do people really deny
the climate science?
1. CORPORATE: If people believe it’s true, and take action,
it will threaten our corporate profits from fossil fuels.
2. LIBERTARIAN: I don’t like big government, and if it was
true governments would have to act, and they’d need
more powers, so it can’t be true.
3. IGNORANT/OPINIONATED: I am confident and well-
educated and I think I know how the world works. I don’t
like being wrong, and I really don’t like tree-huggers
telling me I’m wrong.
4. WORRY-WART: I’m comfortable and I don’t like change,
and this climate thing has got change written all over it,

30. Thought #1
Crisis

33. December 2016

34. This is a gif –
Give it a
moment to
kick in
This is a gif –
Give it a
moment to
kick in
Simulated global Temperature Change 1850-2100

38. Fort McMurray, Summer 2016

39. Where the heat is going

40. The Guardian, March 22, 2016

41. The last time the world was 3C warmer,
the sea level was 25 metres higher.

42. Vancouver 2 Metres Sea-Level Rise

43. Vancouver 20 Metres Sea-Level Rise

67. If global warming
exceeds 1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising
heat

70. Thought #2
Causes

71. The four human causes
of the climate crisis

72. The four human causes
of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels

73. The four human causes
of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels
2. Eating meat, dairy

74. The four human causes
of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels
2. Eating meat, dairy
3. Destroying forests

75. The four human causes
of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels 70%
2. Eating meat, dairy 15%
3. Destroying forests 15%
4. Destructive economy

76. Global Anthropogenic
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2004. (Source IPCC)

77. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The livestock industry – meat & dairy –
is causing 15% of global warming

78. Who,
- me?
Who,
- me?

79. Me?Me?

80. Me?Me?

83. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
GDP =
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet

84. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet
Why?
To raise cattle,
to make hamburgers

85. Some great
climate websites

86. www.theguardian.com

87. thinkprogress.org/climate

88. www.climatechangenews.com

89. insideclimatenews.org

90. www.climatecentral.org

91. cleantechnica.com

92. www.bcsea.org/
green-economy

93. www.skepticalscience.com

96. Thought #3
Transition

102. 300,000 years The Age of Firewood

103. 300 years The Age of Fossil Fuels
Science
Engineering

104. It was fossil fuels
that launched the Industrial Age,
and the modern world.

105. It is fossil fuels
that made advanced engineering,
solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

106. We shouldn’t vilify fossil fuels.
We should praise them,
but then say
“Enough!”

107. Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels

108. Welcome, Solar Age!

109. Welcome, Solar Age!

110. Two billion years:

111. Age of Fossil Fuels is the
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age

112. Thought #4
The Solar Age

113. All energy is solar energy

114. More solar energy reaches
Earth in an hour
than humans use in a year.

115. Solar energy travels at the speed of light
1,000 million kilometres an hour

116. Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds

118. A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

119. And every year,
solar technologies will improve,
and fall in price.

120. ELECTRICITY
A Federal Clean Energy Plan
Help the provinces to close down all coal-fired power plants
by 2025, all gas-fired power plants by 2040

121. Price of
Solar Module
per Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7

122. Mass production = falling prices

123. 30 cents kwh
5 cents kwh

124. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

125. Area needed – theoretically – for all of
Earth’s power to be met by solar PV

127. Solar Stadium, Taiwan

128. The New Tesla Solar Roof

129. The New Tesla Solar Roof

131. Floating Solar in England.
They clip together, like Lego

132. The world’s largest floating solar
Queen Elizabeth II reservoir, Walton-on-Thames, England
23,046 solar panels, 6.3 MW

136. Thought #5
Solutions

137. So how are
we going to
do this?
So how are
we going to
do this?

138. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis

139. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy

140. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat

141. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests

142. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon

143. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
5. A restorative economy

145. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
1. Promote climate leadership, engagement,
education and adaptation

146. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
2. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
100% renewable energy for electricity by 2030

147. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
3. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
a transition to sustainable transportation

148. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
4. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
a transition to sustainable buildings

149. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
5. Put an annually increasing effective
price on carbon

150. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
6. Build a green, cooperative, caring,
entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century

151. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
7. Create targets, policies and regulations
to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions
and leave most fossil fuels in the ground

152. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
8. Create targets, policies and regulations to help
Canada’s emissions-intensive industries reduce their
emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy

153. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
9. Create targets, policies and regulations to help
Canada’s farmers, ranchers and foresters to reduce
their emissions and sequestrate carbon

154. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
10. Work with other nations
to accelerate global progress

155. The Race to ZeroThe Race to Zero

156. = The Race to a Clean
Green Economy
= The Race to a Clean
Green Economy

157. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
5-10% CO2 reduction

158. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
renewable energy
increase

159. Denmark

160. Not everyone wants this – it’s a struggle

161. L
N
G
=
Leave it
N the
Ground
Why? The climate crisis, the salmon,
the eelgrass, the Tsimshian, the Haida…
Lelu Island
Skeena Estuary

168. 75%
of British Columbians think protecting the
climate is more important than building
pipelines and further developing the tar sands.
Oracle Poll, November 2015

169. 92%of British Columbians
want to see a plan
to develop jobs in
the renewable energy
sector.
Oracle Poll, November 2015

170. It will take everyone – you, me,
non-profits, schools, colleges,
governments, businesses, banks,
- and global cooperation

172. Thought #6
Vision

173. Another Question

174. Do You Have
a Positive Vision
of our Future World?

175. Another Question

176. Do You Want
a Positive Vision
of our Future World?

179. A New Green World

181. The visions we offer our children shape the future.
It matters what those visions are.
– Carl Sagan, 1934-1996

182. The Motivating
Power of Vision

186. CITY OF VICTORIA
just voted to go
100% RENEWABLE

187. Oslo voted to slash emissions 95% by 2030

189. Mark Carney,
Governor, Bank of England
“Climate change initiatives offer a
$5-7 trillion funding opportunity
for capital markets.”

190. HOW MANY
FOSSIL FUEL
JOBS
WILL END?
HOW MANY
NEW JOBS
WILL BE
CREATED?

191. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Canada has 555,000 direct and
indirect jobs in fossil fuels

192. Almost Twice as Many
Green Jobs in Canada
By Guy Dauncey
800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost
1,000,000 green energy jobs gained

194. www.ironandearth.org

196. Transportation without Oil

198. Make walking fun and joyful

199. Istanbul,
Turkey

200. In Holland, cycling is the main mode of
transport for 31% of the people

201. The Bicycle - a Romance in 10 Acts
Act 1: Love

202. Act 2: Marriage

203. Act 3: Sperm Donation

204. Act 4: Kids!

205. Act 5: More Kids!

206. In Odense, Denmark,
5-Year-Olds Bike to School on their Own
Act 6: To School!

207. Act 7: All the Neighbours’ Kids

208. Kids with special needs

209. Act 8: The Safe Commute to Work

210. The fast commute to work
Solar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr

211. The circular commute to work
Bicycle Bridge, Holland

212. The electric bike commute to work

213. The Vancouver commute to work
Granville St Bridge Imagined Future

214. The Safe Commute Home

215. Act 9: Shopping

217. Act 10: Retirement

218. Act 11: Old Age

219. Act 12: The End
Act 12: The End

221. Australian/Chinese Brighsun Electric Bus
500 km on one charge, full of passengers

222. Barcelona is moving all its buses to
100% electric by 2020

223. New Chinese urban tram has sensors that
follow the painted lines.

224. Real-time electronic bus stops

226. Elevated transit bus, under development in China

227. Car sharing - Car2Go

228. Car sharing - Car2Go
120,000 members in

235. 400,000 advance orders placed for the
$35,000 Tesla Model 3
320 kilometres range

237. Honda solar electric car charging

238. The falling price of EV

241. The falling price of EV batteries

243. 20 metres sea-level rise

244. By 2025, Holland is preparing
to ban the purchase of gas and

245. Swiss E-Force 18 tonne electric truck
300 km range
80–110 kWh per 100 km at highway speed

246. Future Scania electric truck,
recharging by an inductive roadway.

250. Air pollution - gone

252. • Global Carbon Cap

253. • Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

254. • Climate Bonds
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

255. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

256. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

257. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

258. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

259. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

260. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

261. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

262. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

263. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

264. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

265. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax/Price
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on industrial meat & dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps
Guy Dauncey
2017

266. Political Leadership

267. “Normal” Political Choices
Raise Taxes Cut Spending

268. Real Political Choices
Business as Usual Harmony with Nature

269. Business as Usual Harmony with Nature
Real Political Choices

270. Business as Usual Harmony with Nature
Real Political Choices

273. Progress towards goals
•20% decrease in greenhouse gases from buildings
•27% decrease in vehicle km driven per person
•50% of trips made by bike, walking or transit
•10% of commuter trips made by bike
•15% decrease in community-wide GHGs
•23% decrease in solid waste to landfill/incinerator
•38% increase in neighbourhood food assets
•Nearly 49,000 new trees planted
•Biodiversity Strategy approved
•48,000 new trees planted

274. Throughout existence,
having a positive intention of a future
outcome

275. Dream it
Plan it
Do it

279. Collapse is Possible

280. A Great Transition is
Mark Henson

281. When you think about
the future of our world,
what do you feel?

282. HOPE?
WORRY?

285. If it’s not fun,
it’s not
sustainable.
If it’s not fun,
it’s not
sustainable.

286. Journey to the Future on YouTube,
Search “Guy Dauncey”

287. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com