Maurizio (Moe) Agostino, Managing Commodity Strategist, Farms.com Risk Management
2014 Review of Grain Supply and Demand Fundamentals, Key Global Macro Issues, Chart Analysis, Weather and basis update and grain price target outlooks. Where will the marketing opportunities appear in a lower priced grain environment.
4. 2012 PRICE TARGETS (GAME PLAN)
CROP
PRICE FORECAST
CORN
DECEMBER FUTURES US $7.00 – $8.00
SOYBEANS
NOVEMBER FUTURES US $14.00 - $15.00
CANOLA
NOVEMBER FUTURES $600 - $630/MT
CHICAGO WHEAT
SEPTEMBER FUTURES $8.00 - $8.50
4
5. AGENDA
Review of 2011 & 2012 U.S. DROUGHT
2013 similar to 1988 as a “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL” year.
2014 Grain Supply & Demand (Fundamental) Outlook
14 Macro Economic Outlook (outside markets) & Global Trends
2014 Chart/Technical Outlook
2014 Ontario Basis Outlook
2014 Weather Outlook
2014 Bottom-line & Game Plan
2014 Price Outlook & Targets
5
14. MANAGED MONEY CROWD WERE RECORD
LONG
COMMODITY
LONG OR
SHORT
(05/31/11)
LONG OR
SHORT
(11/22/11)
LONG OR
SHORT
(07/10/12)
LONG OR
SHORT
(08/14/12)
CORN
LONG
328,112
LONG
149,084
LONG
201,956
LONG 303,178
SOYBEANS
LONG
117,551
SHORT
(8,622)
LONG
250,792
LONG 230,545
WHEAT
LONG
83,241
SHORT
(50,582)
LONG
62,468
LONG 77,104
35. #1 LARGEST ECONOMY U.S. LOOKING BETTER
GROWING AT 3.6% IN 13, +2.5% IN 2014
35
36. STOCK MARKETS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THE WALL OF WORRY TO
NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS, NEGATIVE FOR COMMODITIES
BUT….
2014 DJIA MARCH WEEKLY FUTURES CHART
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
37. #2 LARGERST ECONOMY CHINA EXPECTED TO GROW
AT +7.70+ IN 2013, +8.2% IN 2014
37
38. OPEC PROJECTING $100 – $110 ON INCREASED
DEMAND, SUPPLY WILL WEIGH
2014 FEBRUARY WEEKLY CRUDE OIL FUTURES CHART
SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
38
64. WATCH SPECULATORS REMAIN SHORT CORN & WHEAT,
SOYS HAVE MOST TO LOSE AS FUNDS REMAIN LONG
COMMODITY
LONG
LONG OR LONG OR LONG OR
SHORT
OR
SHORT
SHORT
SHORT
(06/18/12) (08/14/12) (03/05/13)
(05/31/11)
CORN
LONG
328,112
LONG
43,024
LONG
303,178
LONG
62,864
LONG
82,517
SHORT
891,451
SOYBEANS
LONG
117,551
SHORT
212,956
LONG
230,545
LONG
128,296
LONG
153,615
LONG
107,658
CHICAGO
WHEAT
LONG
83,241
SHORT
(6,367)
LONG
77, 104
SHORT
46,286
SHORT
16,697
SHORT
73,088
LONG OR LONG OR
SHORT
SHORT
(06/11/13) (01/07/13)
Show the image of the U.S. Drought Monitor Map.
In point form show the following;
The 2012 U.S. drought started in January and peaked in September of that year.
Show the image of a corn cob.
In point form show the following;
The 2012 U.S. drought dropped U.S. average corn yields to 122.8 bpa.
Show the image of corn.
In point form show the following;
The 2012 U.S. drought worst since 1956.
Show the image of corn.
In point form show the following;
The 2012 U.S. drought worst since 1956.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of the 1988 December daily corn futures chart.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the chart of managed money crowd
Show the image of the 1988 December daily corn futures chart.
Show the chart of managed money crowd
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart.
In point form show the following;
2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre.
