GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the upcoming election.

1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
November 7, 2016

2. W H AT ’S AT S TA K E
Republicans Democrats
247 186**
+61 -
All 435 seats are contested.
Democrats need to win 30
seats from the Republicans to
gain control of the House.
House:
Senate:
Republicans Democrats
54 46*
+8 -
34 seats are contested.
Democrats need to win ~5
seats from the Republicans to
gain control of the Senate.
Presidency:
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump seek to become the
45th president of the United States.
Governor: 12 governorships are
contested. * 44 Democrats + 2 Independents
** 2 seats are vacant (HI-1, PA-2)
~ if Clinton wins, Democrats only need to win 4 seats
PAGE 2

3. K E Y M E T R IC S H E A DI NG I N T O E L E CT ION D AY
Source: HuffPost Pollster
PAGE 3
Ø Clinton’s favorable rating is better than Trump’s.
§ While both candidates are historically unpopular with a majority of Americans, Clinton is marginally more
popular than Trump.
Ø Trump supporters are more enthusiastic.
§ Trump's biggest strength is his overwhelming support from disaffected white voters -- particularly men, and
especially those without college degrees -- and his supporters appear to be more enthusiastic than Clinton’s.
Ø Early voting trends favor Clinton.
§ This year, 30 to 40 percent of votes are expected to come from early voting, and so far, a greater number of
Democrats than Republicans have already voted in key battleground states.
Ø Americans overwhelmingly believe Clinton will win.
§ A majority of voters in recent polls believe Clinton will be the winner of the race. Questions that test voters’
perceptions of who will win are said to be more indicative of the actual winner than horserace polls asking who
they will vote for.
§ All of the available forecast models give Clinton a very high probability of winning the election.
Ø It all comes down to who shows up to vote.
§ Will any upswing in Hispanic turnout be offset by a downturn in African-American turnout? Do Republican
voters come out in force on election day offsetting Democrat’s early vote success?

4. S T A T E O F T H E N A T I O N

5. PAGE 5
M O S T D I S SAT ISF IED W I T H D I R E CTI ON O F C O U NT RY
Source: HuffPost Pollster Average
Direction of the Country Satisfaction With the Way Things Are Going in the U.S.
Source: Gallup Poll, October 5-9, 2016
Satisfied Dissatisfied
28% 70%
Right Direction Wrong Track
30% 65%

6. PAGE 6
M O S T V O T ERS C O N TEN T W I T H P E R S ONAL F I N A NCI AL S I T UAT ION,
B U T N O T H A P P Y W I T H U . S . E C O N OMIC S Y S TE M O R P O L I T ICA L
S Y S T EM I N WA S H I NGTO N
Source: CNBC Poll, October 21-24, 2016
Your personal financial situation
Happy Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied Angry
18% 38% 20% 18% 5%
The economic and financial system in the United States
Happy Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied Angry
5% 14% 20% 44% 14%
The political system in Washington
Happy Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied Angry
2% 7% 10% 50% 29%

7. PAGE 7
E C O N OMI C I N D I CATORS : U N E M PLOY MENT R AT E , J O B S A D D ED,
A N D C O N S UM ER C O N FI DEN CE
Source: Bureaus of Labor Statistics, Conference Board
Consumer
Confidence Index
August
101.8
September
103.5
October
98.6
73rd consecutive
month of job gains
in October, while
unemployment rate
ticked down to 4.9%

8. PAGE 8
W H I L E O B A M A’S J O B A P P R OVAL H A S G O N E U P O V E R PA S T Y E A R,
A M A J O RIT Y W O U LD N O T E L E C T H I M T O A T H I R D T E R M I F H E
WA S A L L O WED T O R U N
Source: HuffPost Pollster Average
Approve 52.1%
Disapprove 45.5%
If President Barack Obama was allowed to run
for a third term, would you most likely vote to re-
elect him, or vote for someone else?
Definitely /
Probably re-elect
Obama
45%
Definitely /
Probably vote for
someone else
52%
Source: AP-GfK Poll, October 20-24, 2016

9. PAGE 9
A M A J O RIT Y O F V O T E RS S AY E L E CTI ON H A S M A D E T H E M L E S S
P R O U D O F A M E R ICA
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, November 3-5, 2016
Has this presidential election made you…?
28%
62%
7%
No
difference
Less
proud
of
America
More
proud
of
America
2016
45%
12%
34%
2012

10. B A T T L E F O R T H E P R E S I D E N C Y

11. M O S T F I N AL N AT IO NAL P O L L S P U T C L I NTO N O N T O P
Source: HuffPost Pollster
PAGE 11
LikeCandidate
DislikeOpponent
DislikeOpponent
LikeCandidate
Most Recent Polls
Poll Date Clinton Trump Spread
Poll Average 46.1% 41.5% Clinton +4.6
Bloomberg Nov 4 – Nov 6 44 41 Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Nov 3 – Nov 6 41 43 Trump +2
Fox News Nov 3 – Nov 6 48 44 Clinton +4
CBS Nov 2 – Nov 6 45 41 Clinton +4
NBC/Survey Monkey Oct 31 – Nov 6 47 41 Clinton +6
Politico/Morning Consult Nov 4 – Nov 5 45 42 Clinton +3
NBC/WSJ Nov 3 – Nov 5 44 40 Clinton +4
ABC/Post Nov 2 – Nov 5 47 43 Clinton +4
McClatchy/Marist Nov 1 – Nov 3 44 43 Clinton +1
Results taken from four-way race

12. A N D P O L L I NG AV E R AGE H A S C L I NTO N O N T O P N AT I ONWI DE
Source: HuffPost Pollster Average as of 11/7
PAGE 12
Why Voters Support Candidate
55%
43%42%
51%
Clinton Trump
SupportClinton
OpposeTrump
OpposeClinton
SupportTrump
Source: ABC News/WashPost Poll
Clinton 47.5%
Trump 42.3%
Although his numbers have declined, Libertarian
candidate Gary Johnson is still polling at a level
of support higher than third parties in the
previous four election cycles.
Two-way Race
Four-way Race
Clinton 46.1%
Trump 41.5%
Johnson 5.3%
Other (Stein) 3.6%

13. PAGE 13
E L E C TOR AL M A P FAV ORAB LE T O WAR D C L I N TON
Likely/Leans Clinton
(272)
Likely/Leans Trump
(186)
Toss-Up
(80)
CT 7
O
R
A
K
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
C
N
H
3
12
7
55
6
4
3
6
11 5
9
3
3
5
2
NH 4
VT 3
3
4
38
DC 3
MD 10
DE 3
NJ 14
RI 4
MA 1129
6
7
10
6
10
6
8
6 9 16
29
9
15
13
11
20 11
10 16
18
20
8
5
ME2
(1)
ME1
(1)
Maine allocates it’s electoral
votes proportionally, 2 to overall
winner of state and 1 each to
winner of congressional district

14. S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S
O
R
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
H
FL
VA
OH
PAIA
AZ
NV
(10/26 – 11/1)
Trump: 46.3%
Clinton: 42.3%
(11/1– 11/4)
Trump: 44.3%
Clinton: 41.3%
(10/28 – 11/6)
Clinton: 43.3%
Trump: 42.7%
(10/29 – 11/4)
Clinton: 46.0%
Trump: 43.6%
Clinton: 47.3%
Trump: 42.3%
(10/27 – 11/6)
Clinton: 47.0%
Trump: 46.0%
(10/27 – 11/6)
(10/27 – 11/5)
Trump: 45.8%
Clinton: 42.3%
Trump: 46.5%
Clinton: 45.0%
(10/27 – 11/5) NC
Trump: 47.5%
Clinton: 45.8%
(10/26 – 11/6)
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/7/16
PAGE 14
Averages are for Four-way Race

15. PAGE 15
States Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Arizona 42.3% 46.3% 0 11
Florida 47.0% 46.0% 29 0
Iowa 41.3% 44.3% 0 6
Nevada 45.0% 46.5% 0 6
New Hampshire 43.3% 42.7% 4 0
North Carolina 45.8% 47.5% 0 15
Pennsylvania 46.0% 43.6% 20 0
Ohio 42.3% 45.8% 0 18
Virginia 47.3% 42.3% 13 0
Swing State Voters 66 56
Leaning/Likely State Voters 235 181*
Total Overall Votes 301 237
RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORALVOTES
A LT H OUG H T R U MP L E A DS I N F I V E O F N I N E B AT TL EGR OUND
S TAT ES, I T W O U L D N O T B E E N O U G H
*Indications point to Trump winning 1 Electoral vote from Maine which awards its electoral votes proportionally

16. PAGE 16
H O W K E Y S TAT ES H AV E M O V ED O V E R T H E L A S T W E E K
Oct 31st Nov 7th
Arizona Clinton +0.6 Trump +4.0
Colorado Clinton +4.0 Clinton +2.9
Florida Trump +0.5 Clinton +1.0
Georgia Trump +3.6 Trump +4.6
Iowa Trump +1.4 Trump +3.0
Michigan Clinton +6.3 Clinton +4.7
Missouri Trump +8.0 Trump +9.5
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/7/16
Oct 31st Nov 7th
Nevada Clinton +1.5 Trump +1.5
New Hampshire Clinton +5.6 Clinton +0.6
North Carolina Clinton +3.0 Trump +1.7
Ohio Trump +2.0 Trump +3.5
Pennsylvania Clinton +6.0 Clinton +2.4
Virginia Clinton +6.6 Clinton +5.0
Wisconsin Clinton +5.7 Clinton +5.5

17. PAGE 17
H O W T R U M P C O U LD W I N
C A P T U R E F L O R I D A , I O WA , O H I O , N E W H A M P S H I R E , N E VA D A A N D M E - 2
Clinton
(268)
Trump
(270)
CT 7
O
R
A
K
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
C
N
H
3
12
7
55
6
4
3
6
11 5
9
3
3
5
2
NH 4
VT 3
3
4
38
DC 3
MD 10
DE 3
NJ 14
RI 4
MA 1129
6
7
10
6
10
6
8
6 9 16
29
9
15
13
11
20 11
10 16
18
20
8
5
ME2
(1)
ME1
(1)
If Trump does not pick up 1
electoral vote from Maine,
we’d be looking at a 269-269
tie in this scenario
Maine allocates it’s electoral
votes proportionally, 2 to overall
winner of state and 1 each to
winner of congressional district

18. A N D T H O S E O T H E R R A C E S : S E N A T E , H O U S E

19. Democrats: 46* Republicans: 54
*Two independents caucus
with Democrats
PAGE 19
2 0 1 6 S E N ATE: P R E- ELE CTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY
K
Y
G
A
N
C

20. Source: Washington Post “The Fix” PAGE 20
2 0 1 6 S E N ATE O U T L OOK
The Senate map is in favor of Democrats in the 2016 cycle. They are defending only 10
seats while Republicans have two dozen of their own seats to hold. In addition, seven of
those 24 Republican seats are in states that President Obama won not once but twice:
Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Below are the top 10 Senate races most likely to flip parties. No. 1 is most likely to flip
parties and so on.
1. Kirk (IL-R)
2. Johnson (WI-R)
3. Toomey (PA-R)
4. Ayotte (NH-R)
5. Reid (NV-D)
6. Blunt (MO-R)
7. Coats (IN-R)
8. Burr (NC-R)
9. Rubio (FL-R)
10. McCain (AZ-R)

21. S E L E CT S E N ATE P O L L IN G AV E RA GES
O
R
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
H
AZ
FL
OH
PA
WI
NV
(10/26 – 11/1)
Feingold: 47.0%
Johnson: 44.3%
(10/29 – 11/4)
McGinty: 45.0%
Toomey: 43.0%
Rubio: 49.0%
Murphy: 45.3%
(10/27 – 11/6)
(10/27 – 11/5)
Portman: 53.8%
Strickland: 35.5%
Cortez Masto: 46.7%
Heck: 46.3%
(10/27 – 11/5)
McCain: 49.5%
Kirkpatrick: 39.3%
(10/26 – 11/1)
NC
Burr: 46.3%
Ross: 45.3%
(10/26 – 11/6)
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/7/16
PAGE 21
MO
(10/28 – 11/6)
Ayotte: 47.1%
Hassan: 45.6%Blunt: 46.8%
Kander: 45.5%
(10/24 – 11/5)
IN
Young: 42.7%
Bayh: 42.0%
(10/27 – 11/3)

22. PAGE 22
STATE DEM REP DEM REP
Arizona Kirkpatrick:39.5% McCain (i):49.5% HOLD
Florida Murphy:45.3% Rubio (i):49.0% HOLD
Illinois Duckworth:48.0% Kirk (i):34.7% PICKUP
Indiana Bayh:42.0% Young:42.7% HOLD
Missouri Kander:45.5% Blunt(i):46.8% HOLD
Nevada Cortez Masto:46.7% Heck:46.3% HOLD
New Hampshire Hassan:45.6% Ayotte (i):47.1% HOLD
North Carolina Ross:44.6% Burr (i):46.8% HOLD
Pennsylvania McGinty:45.0% Toomey (i):43.0% PICKUP
Ohio Strickland:35.5% Portman (i):53.8% HOLD
Wisconsin Feingold:47.0% Johnson(i):44.3% PICKUP
Toss-Up /LeaningRaces 4 7
Solid /Likely Races 9 14
NotUp For Election 36 30
Total Senate Make-up 49 51
RCP POLL AVERAGE
S E N ATE C O N T ROL C O U LD G O E I T H E R WAY A S W E H E A D I N T O
E L E C TI ON D AY

23. Source: Gallup Poll, October 27-28, 2016 PAGE 23
C O N G RES SIO NAL B A L L OT I S C L O S E, A LT H OUGH M O R E V O T E RS
W O U L D P R E F ER A G O P C O N G R ESS I F H I L L A RY E L E CTE D
What is your preference for the outcome of Tuesday’s
congressional elections -- (ROTATE:) a Congress
controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by
Democrats?
44% 47%
9%
Republican
candidate
Democratic
candidate
Not sure
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, November 3-5, 2016
If Hillary Clinton is elected president, which
party would you prefer to have in control of
Congress?
42%
52%
Democrats
Republicans

24. Source: Cook Political Report, as of November 7, 2016 PAGE 24
H O U S E R A C E R AT ING S
The Cook Political Report
counts just 37 seats out of 435
as competitive. Of the 37
competitive seats, 30 are held
by Republicans and seven are
held by Democrats. That
means that if Democrats swept
every single competitive seat,
they would win the majority.
Chances of this happening
though, are highly unlikely.
Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member

25. E A R L Y V O T I N G

26. PAGE 26
E A R LY V O T I NG
In 2012, a quarter of the votes cast
were cast by early ballot.
It is anticipatedthat nearly a third of
votes cast in2016 will be before
electionday.
More than 30 millionvotes have been
cast already across 38states with
early voting.
So far, about 7.4 million registered
Democrats and about 6.4 million
Republicans have votedearly.
Early vote totals in Florida, 2008 & 2016
Early vote totals in Nevada, 2008 & 2016
Early vote totals in North Carolina, 2008 & 2016
Source: CNN/Catalist, as of 11/3

27. PAGE 27
C L I N TON H A S T H E E D G E A M O N G T H O SE A L R E AD Y V O T ED
Clinton has held an
advantage among early
voters throughout most
of the past two weeks,
suggestingthat shehas
banked a significant
amount of votes among
a group that makes up
one-thirdof the likely
voter electorate.
39%
55%
Trump
Clinton
45%
43%
Trump
Clinton
Already voted
Voting on election day
Source: ABC News/WashPost Poll

28. P R E D I C T I O N S

29. PAGE 29
W H O V O T E RS T H I NK W I L L W I N T H E E L E C TI ON
57% 55% 57%
68%
74%
32% 31% 31%
27% 25%
Fox News CBS News ABC/WashPost CNN-ORC AP-GfK
Clinton Trump

30. PAGE 30
W H AT T H E P U N D ITS P R E DI CT F O R T H E P R E SI DEN CY & S E N ATE

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