2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3
2. Views of Obama..…………………………………………………………….…...7
3. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…10
4. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……18
5. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...21
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4. CHALLENGING ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE
State of the Nation
Clinton Bush Obama
Sept 1996 Sept 2004 Sept 2012 Highest in
Satisfied 45 41 30 Three
Unsatisfied 50 56 68 Years.
Source: Gallup Poll, September 6-9, 2012
A year ago,
• Tougher political, economic, and foreign policy environment satisfaction
stood at
Post-2010, narrower field of battleground states
•
11%
• New Republican governors in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New
Mexico, Wisconsin, and Michigan
• Continuing high unemployment
• No President has been re-elected since WWII when
unemployment was above 7.5%
4
5. IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Which one of the following issues will be most important in deciding your vote for
president?
Economic issues such as jobs and growth 47%
Fiscal issues such as taxes, the deficit and
government spending
22%
Social issues such as abortion and gay
marriage
10%
National security issues such as terrorism
and ensuring a strong military
4% AMONG LIKELY VOTERS
All (vol.) 14%
Other (vol.) 2%
0% 20% 40% 60%
5
Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012
6. MORE DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS
FIND CAMPAIGN INTERESTING
How would you
describe the
presidential
election
campaign so far
– is it [READ
ITEM]?
6
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012
8. AMERICANS APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB
PERFORMANCE; SEES BOUNCE FOLLOWING THE
CONVENTION
Fox News (LVs) Aug Sept
19-21 9 - 11
Overall Job Approval
Approve 46% 50%
Approve Disapprove No opinion
Disapprove 50% 47%
CNN (RVs) Aug 31 – Sept
Sept 3 7-9
50% Approve 48% 51%
44% Disapprove 45% 44%
6% Gallup (Adults) Aug 27 – Sept
Sept 2 3-9
Approve 44% 50%
Disapprove 47% 44%
Source: Gallup Poll, September 3 – 9 , 2012
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9. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW,
OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY
FAVORABLE 51.1% FAVORABLE 45.6%
UNFAVORABLE 45.1% UNFAVORABLE 48.3%
As of September 13, 2012
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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
11. AFTER CONVENTIONS, OBAMA TAKES THE
LEAD
A Look Back
As of September 14, 2012 Four Years Ago Today*
Sept 14, 2008 %
OBAMA 48.6% Obama 45.3
McCain 47.4
McCain +2.1
+3.7
Eight Years Ago Today
Sept 14, 2004 %
ROMNEY 44.9% Bush 49.0
Kerry 43.3
Bush +5.7
Source: Real Clear Politics
* Note that the GOP convention followed the 11
Democratic convention in 2004
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
13. CANDIDATE BOUNCES BELOW THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE
Post-Dem. Post-Rep.
Democratic Republican
Convention convention
candidate candidate
bounce bounce
2012 Obama 3 Romney -1
2008 Obama 4 McCain 6
2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush 2
2000 Gore 8 G.W. Bush 8
1996 Clinton 5 Dole 3
1992 Clinton 16 G.H.W. Bush 5
1988 Dukakis 7 G.H.W. Bush 6
1984 Mondale 9 Reagan 4
1980 Carter 10 Reagan 8
1976 Carter 9 Ford 5
1972 McGovern 0 Nixon 7
13
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
14. THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES APPEAR TO HURT
ROMNEY MORE THAN OBAMA
Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama
as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as
the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be
more likely to vote for?
60% AMONG LIKELY VOTERS
51%
50%
43%
40%
30%
20%
10%
3% 1%
0%
Obama Romney Johnson Stein
Note: “Other (vol),” “None (vol),” and “No 14
Opinion” results are not shown.
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
15. WHEN IT COMES TO MOTIVATION, OBAMA
HAS AN EDGE
(IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about
supporting (Obama/Romney), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not
enthusiastic at all?
AMONG ENTHUSIASTIC NOT ENTHUSIASTIC
REGISTERED
VOTERS NET Very Somewhat NET Not so Not at all
Obama
supporters 93% 56% 38% 7% 3% 3%
Romney
supporters 87% 46% 40% 13% 7% 6%
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Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
16. LIKELY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON
MOST ISSUES
Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President.
Obama Romney
60%
54% 54% 54%
50% 50% 49% 51%
50% 47% 46% 45%
43% 42%
40%
30% R O O O O O
+3 +1 +5 +9 +11 +12
20%
10%
0%
The federal The economy Taxes Healthcare Medicare Foreign policy
budget deficit
Note: “Neither,” and “No opinion” results 16
are not shown.
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
17. AMERICANS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON PERSONAL
DIMENSIONS, SUCH AS BEING IN TOUCH WITH THE
PROBLEMS THAT FACE THE MIDDLE CLASS
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each
one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney.
Obama Romney
Is in touch with the problems facing the 57% O, +20
middle class 37%
Shares your values 51% O, +7
44%
Is more honest and trustworthy 51% O, +10
41%
Has an optimistic vision for the country's 51%
future 41% O, +10
Is a strong and decisive leader 50% O, +6
44%
Can manage the government effectively 48% O, +3
45%
Has a clear plan for solving the country's 45% O, +6
problems 39%
0% 20% 40% 60%
17
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
22. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a
seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE.
Republicans need to win 6 Toss-Up seats to gain control of the Senate if they pick up a
seat in NE, while losing a seat in ME.
Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2) Likely Rep (1)
ME* (Open) – HI (Open) – MO (McCaskill) – AZ (Open) – NE (Open) –
Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Democrat
PA (Casey) – FL (Nelson) – MT (Tester) – IN (Open) –
Democrat Democrat Democrat Republican
MI (Stabenow) – OH (Brown) – VA (Open) –
Democrat Democrat Democrat
CT (Open) – WI (Open) –
Democrat Democrat
NM (Open) – ND (Open) -
Democrat Democrat
MA (Brown) –
Republican
NV (Heller) –
Republican
*Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 22
he wins the open Maine seat
Source: Roll Call, as of September 13, 2012
23. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
(6/13-6/25)
(8/20 – 9/11) (5/3-7/11) King: 53%
(8/15-8/21)
Rehberg : 45% Berg: 49% Summers: 25%
Thompson: 51%
Tester: 44% Heitkamp: 44% Dill: 8%
Baldwin: 43%
ND ME
OR MT
MN NH
WI MA
(8/22-9/11)
McCaskill: 48% Brown:
NV 44%
Akin: 43%
CO
MO VA Warren:
KY
43%
NC (5/7-8/19)
Heller: 47% NM
NM
Berkley: 42% GA
Allen: 46%
(7/24-8/26)
Kaine: 45%
Heinrich: 49% (8/16-9/11)
Wilson: 41% FL
(8/5-9/9) Nelson: 46%
Mack: 39%
(8/15-9/9) 23
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 13, 2012)
24. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse
audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to
uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging
and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
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