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International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape

  1. 1. International  Affairs:   American  Public  Opinion  Landscape   August,  2014    
  2. 2. 1 TABLE  OF  CONTENTS   1.  Current  Poli.cal  Landscape…………….……………………………….……2   2.  The  Gaza  Conflict….………..…………………………………………………….7   3.  Russia  and  Ukraine…………………………………………………………..…15   4.  Iraq……………………………………………………………………………………..25   5.  Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………34   Slide  
  4. 4. FOREIGN  POLICY  ISSUES  NOT  THE  MOST   IMPORTANT  PROBLEMS  FACING  THE  U.S.   3 July  7-­‐10,   2014   Immigra.on/Illegal  aliens   17%   Dissa.sfac.on  with  government   16%   Economy  in  general   15%   Unemployment  /  Jobs   14%   Healthcare   8%   Federal  budget  deficit   6%   Educa.on   5%   Ethics/Moral/Religious  decline   4%   July  7-­‐10,   2014   Foreign  aid  /  focus  overseas   3%   Lack  of  military  defense   1%   Interna.onal  issues,  problems   1%   Terrorism   1%   Wars/War  (nonspecific)/Fear  of  war   1%   Na.onal  security   1%   War/conflict  between  Middle  East   na.ons   1%   Situa.on/War  in  Afghanistan   1%   Situa.on  in  Iraq   *   Situa.on  in  Syria     *   What  do  you  think  is  the  most  important  problem  facing  this  country  today?     Source:  Gallup  Poll,  July  7  -­‐  10,  2014   *  Indicates  a  number  between  0  and  1%  
  5. 5. OBAMA’S  JOB  APPROVAL  ON  FOREIGN  POLICY   CONTINUES  TO  SLIDE   4   Source:  Pollster.com  Aggregate  Data,  Latest  Poll    as  of  August  11,  2014     APPROVAL   %   Overall  approval   43%   Healthcare   41%   The  economy   39%   Foreign  policy   36%   Job  Approval  on   Foreign  Policy   worse  than   Economy    and   Healthcare   Disapprove  53.3%   Approve  35.6%   Job  Approval  on  Foreign  Policy  
  6. 6. FOREIGN  POLICY  NO  LONGER  THE  PRESIDENT’S   BIGGEST  STRENGTH   5   56%   54%   48%   46%   46%   47%   48%   50%   49%   40%   40%   36%   Feb  2009   Aug  2009   Feb  2010   Aug  2010   Feb  2011   Aug  2011   Feb  2012   Aug  2012   Feb  2013   Aug  2013   Feb  2014   Aug  2014   Economy   Health  Care   Overall   Foreign  Policy   Job  Approval  on  Foreign  Policy   was  his  biggest  strength;  Now  it   is  his  lowest  ra.ng   Source:  Pollster.com  Aggregate  Data,  Latest  Poll    as  of  August  6,  2014     -­‐14%   Job  Approval  on…  
  7. 7. AND  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  DISSATISFIED   WITH  AMERICA’S  ROLE  IN  THE  WORLD   6   Very  sa.sfied,   6%   Somewhat   sa.sfied,  29%   Somewhat   dissa.sfied,  33%   Very  dissa.sfied,   29%   Not  sure,  3%   I’d  like  to  get  your  opinion  about  how  things  are  going  in  some  areas  of  our  society   today…  When  it  comes  to  America’s  role  in  the  world  are  you  very  sa.sfied,  somewhat   sa.sfied,  somewhat  dissa.sfied,  or  very  dissa.sfied  with  how  things  are  going  today?   62% are dissatisfied with America’s role in the world Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014    
  9. 9. THE  CONFLICT  BETWEEN  ISRAEL  AND  HAMAS  IS   IMPORTANT  TO  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  AND   THEY  DISAPPROVE  OF  HOW  THE  PRESIDENT  IS   HANDLING  IT   8   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   42%   28%   29%   Extremely/Very   important   Moderately   Important   Slightly/Not  at  all   important   How  important  are  each  of  the  following   issues  to  you  personally?  [The  conflict   between  Israel  and  Hamas]   Overall,  do  you  approve,  disapprove,  or   neither  approve  nor  disapprove  of  the  way   Barak  Obama  is  handling  [The  conflict   between  Israel  and  Hamas]   Approve   18%   Lean  toward   approving   19%   Don't  lean   either  way   2%   Lean  toward   disapproving   19%   Disapprove   41%  
  10. 10. HALF  OF  AMERICANS  SYMPATHIZE  WITH  ISRAEL   OVER  THE  PALESTINIANS     9   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Poll,  July  8  –  14,  2014   51%   14%   3%   15%   Israel   Pales.nians   Both   Neither   In  the  dispute  between  Israel  and  the  Pales.nians,  which  side  do  you  sympathize   with  more:  Israel  or  the  Pales.nians?   *Unsure/Refused  not  shown.  
  11. 11. HOWEVER,  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  THINK   THAT  WE  SHOULD  TREAT  BOTH  SIDES  EQUALLY   10   When  it  comes  to  the  conflict  between  the  Israelis  and  the  Pales.nians,  do  you  think   that  the  United  States  should  support  the  Israelis  more  than  the  Pales.nians,   support  the  Pales.nians  more  than  the  Israelis,  or  should  the  U.S.  treat  Israelis  and   the  Pales.nians  the  same  and  not  support  one  more  than  the  other?   Favor  Israelis   over   Pales.nians   34%   Favor   Pales.nians   over  Israelis   4%   Treat  Israelis   and  the   Pales.nians   the  same     53%   Not  sure   9%   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014    
  12. 12. THIS  YEAR,  FAVORABILITY  OF  ISRAEL  HAS  REACHED   BOTH  ITS  PEAK  AND  ITS  LOWEST  POINT  IN  5  YRS.   11   Source:  CNN/ORC  Poll,  July  18  –  20,  2014   69%   67%   65%   72%   60%   30%   32%   33%   24%   38%   Apr  2009   Jun  2010   May  2011   Jan  2014   Jul  2014   Favorable   Unfavorable   Next,  I’d  like  your  overall  opinion  of  some  foreign  countries.  Is  your  overall  opinion  of   each  of  the  following  very  favorable,  mostly  favorable,  mostly  unfavorable,  or  very   unfavorable?  [ISRAEL]   *”Unsure”  not  shown.  
  13. 13. A  PLURALITY  BLAMES  HAMAS,  BUT  MORE  BLAME   ISRAEL  OR  BOTH  THAN  IN  PAST  CONFLICTS     12   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Poll,  July  24  –  27,  2014   12%   12%   19%   42%   41%   40%   6%   5%   14%   2006   2009   2014   Israel   Hamas/Hezbollah   Both   Over  the  past  few  weeks  there  has  been  a  significant  military  conflict  between  Israel  and   Hamas  in  the  Gaza  Strip.  Who  do  you  think  is  most  responsible  for  the  current  violence?   +7   +9   *Unsure/Refused  not  shown.  
  14. 14. OF  THOSE  WHO  HAVE  AN  OPINION,  MORE  ARE   DISSATISFIED  WITH  HOW  THE  U.S.  IS  DEALING   WITH  THE  CONFLICT   13   When  it  comes  to  how  the  United  States  is  dealing  with  the  conflict  between  Hamas   and  Israel  are  you  sa.sfied  or  dissa.sfied  with  our  ac.ons  or  do  you  not  know  enough   to  have  an  opinion  one  way  or  the  other?  [IF  DISSATISFIED]  And  is  this  because  the   United  States  has  gopen  too  involved  or  not  involved  enough?   Sa.sfied   17%   Don't  know   enough  to     have  an  opinion   35%   Not  sure   3%   Dissa.sfied,  too   involved   Dissa.sfied,  not   involved  enough   Dissa.sfied   45%   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014     17%   28%  
  15. 15. ULTIMATELY,  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS   DO  NOT  THINK  THERE  WILL  BE  A  LASTING   PEACE  AGREEMENT     14   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal/Marist  Poll  July  28  –  31,  2014   Do  you  believe  that  the  Israelis  and  Pales.nians  will  or  will  not  be  able  to  form  a   las.ng  peace  agreement  that  will  work?   Will   23%   Will  not   62%   Unsure   15%  
  16. 16. 15   RUSSIA  AND  UKRAINE    
  17. 17. THREE  IN  FOUR  AMERICANS  FEEL  THAT  WHAT   HAPPENS  BETWEEN  RUSSIA  AND  UKRAINE  IS   VERY  IMPORTANT   16   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Poll,  July  24  –  27,  2014   31%   36%   16%   13%   48%   35%   8%   5%   Very  important   Somewhat  important   Not  too  important   Not  at  all  important   April   July   How  important  to  the  interests  of  the  United  States  is  what  happens  between   Russia  and  Ukraine?   +17   83%  of  Americans  think  that   it  is  important  to  the  interests   of  the  U.S.   *Unsure/Refused  not  shown.  
  18. 18. HOWEVER,  A  PLURALITY  IS  DISSATISFIED  WITH   HOW  THE  U.S.  IS  DEALING  WITH  THE  SITUATION   17   When  it  comes  to  how  the  United  States  is  dealing  with  the  conflict  between  Russia   and  the  Ukraine  are  you  sa.sfied  or  dissa.sfied  with  our  ac.ons  or  do  you  not  know   enough  to  have  an  opinion  one  way  or  the  other?  [IF  DISSATISFIED]  And  is  that  because   the  United  States  has  gopen  too  involved  or  not  involved  enough?   Sa.sfied   23%   Don't  know   enough  to     have  an  opinion   32%   Not  sure   2%   Dissa.sfied,  too   involved   Dissa.sfied,  not   involved  enough   Dissa.sfied     43%   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014     15%   28%  
  19. 19. HALF  OF  AMERICANS  THINK  THE  SANCTIONS   ARE  NOT  STRONG  ENOUGH   18   Do  you  think  the  sanc.ons  the  United  States  has  imposed  in  response  to  Russia’s   annexa.on  of  Crimea  have  been:   Too  strong   5%   About  right   38%   Not  strong   enough   53%   Refused   5%   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014  
  20. 20. AND  HALF  OF  AMERICANS  SUPPORT   EXPANDING  ECONOMIC  SANCTIONS   19   Given  Russia’s  annexa.on  of  Crimea  and  con.nued  support  of  the  Ukrainian  separa.st   movement,  would  you  support,  oppose  or  neither  support  nor  oppose  the  U.S.  taking   each  of  the  following  ac.ons:   Support   Neither   Oppose   Expanding  sanc.ons  against  Russia  so  that   they  target  the  Russian  economy,  including   its  energy  businesses   52%   34%   11%   Providing  military  support  to  na.ons  if  they   are  targeted  by  Russia   21%   41%   35%   Providing  financial  support  to  na.ons  if  they   are  targeted  by  Russia   21%   42%   33%   *Answers  for  Refused/Not   answered  not  shown.   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014  
  21. 21. NEARLY  HALF  OF  AMERICANS  SEE  RUSSIA  AS  A   SERIOUS  PROBLEM;  ONE  QUARTER  SEES   RUSSIA  AS  AN  ADVERSARY   20   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Poll,  July  24  –  27,  2014   All  things  considered,  which  of  these  descrip.ons  comes  closest  to  your  view   of  Russia  today.  Do  you  think  Russia  is:   18%   15%   18%   26%   26%   48%   32%   36%   43%   49%   28%   42%   40%   22%   15%   Sept  2008    Oct  2009   Oct  2013   Mar  2014   Jul  2014   An  adversary   A  serious  problem   but  not  an   adversary     Not  much  of  a   problem   *Unsure/Refused  not  shown.  
  22. 22. MOST  AMERICANS  THINK  THE  CRASH  WAS  LIKELY   CAUSED  BY  A  SEPARATIST  GROUP  IN  UKRAINE   21   Based  on  what  you  have  read  or  heard,  do  you  think  it  is  very  likely,  somewhat  likely,   somewhat  unlikely  or  very  unlikely  that  the  missile  that  caused  the  airplane  crash  was   launched  by  a  separa.st  group  in  Ukraine?   Very  likely   56%   Somewhat   likely   24%   Somewhat   unlikely   6%   Very  unlikely   8%   No     Opinion   7%   80%  think  that  it   was  likely  caused  by  a   separa.st  group   Source:  CNN/ORC  Poll,  July  18-­‐20,  2014  
  23. 23. AND  HALF  OF  AMERICANS  THINK  THAT  RUSSIA  IS   INDIRECTLY  RESPONSIBLE  FOR  THE  CRASH     22   Just  your  best  guess  –  based  on  what  you  have  read  or  heard,  do  you  think  Russia  is   directly  responsible  for  the  crash  of  the  airplane,  indirectly  responsible,  or  not   responsible  at  all?   34%   51%   11%   Directly  responsible   Indirectly  responsible   Not  responsible  at  all   Source:  CNN/ORC  Poll,  July  18-­‐20,  2014   *No  opinion  not  shown  
  24. 24. A  PLURALITY  OF  AMERICANS  ARE   DISSATISFIED  WITH  THE  U.S.’S  ACTIONS  IN   DEALING  WITH  THE  CRASH   23   When  it  comes  to  how  the  United  States  is  dealing  with  the  commercial  airline  shot   down  in  Ukraine  are  you  sa.sfied  or  dissa.sfied  with  our  ac.ons  or  do  you  not  know   enough  to  have  an  opinion  one  way  or  the  other?  [IF  DISSATISFIED]  And  is  that  because   the  United  States  has  gopen  too  involved  or  not  involved  enough?   Sa.sfied   26%   Don't  know   enough  to     have  an  opinion   33%   Not  sure   4%   Dissa.sfied,  too   involved   Dissa.sfied,  not   involved  enough   Dissa.sfied     37%   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014     7%   30%  
  25. 25. IF  RUSSIA  IS  SHOWN  TO  BE  RESPONSIBLE  -­‐   MOST  AMERICANS  THINK  THAT  THE  U.S.   SHOULD  RESPOND  WITH  SANCTIONS     24   If  there  is  clear  evidence  that  Russia  is  responsible  for  the  airplane  crash,  what  do  you   think  the  United  States  should  do  in  response:   19%   71%   9%   No  ac.on   Sanc.ons   Military  Ac.on   Source:  CNN/ORC  Poll,  July  18-­‐20,  2014   *No  opinion  not  shown.  
  26. 26. 25   IRAQ     25  
  27. 27. A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  CONTINUES  TO   BELIEVE  THAT  THE  WAR  IN  IRAQ  WAS  A  MISTAKE   26   Source:  Quinnipiac  University  Poll,  June  24-­‐30,  2014   39%   37%   35%   38%   33%   36%   36%   36%   32%   55%   57%   59%   55%   62%   58%   60%   60%   61%   Apr  2007   Jun  2007   Aug  2007   Oct  2007   May  2008   Nov  2008   Feb  2009   Oct  2011   Jun  2014   Wrong  thing   Right  thing   Do  you  think  going  to  war  with  Iraq  in  2003  was  the  right  thing  for  the  United   States  to  do  or  the  wrong  thing?   *Unsure/No  Answer  not  shown.  
  28. 28. AND  A  MAJORITY  THINKS  HISTORY  WILL   JUDGE  THE  WAR  IN  IRAQ  AS  A  FAILURE   27   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014     Just  your  best  guess,  how  do  you  think   history  will  judge  the  war  in  Iraq?   78%  think  it  will  be  judged  a  failure   1%   18%   55%   23%   Complete  Success   More  of  a  success   than  a  failure   More  of  a  failure  than   a  success   Complete  failure   *Refused/Not  Answered  not  shown.  
  29. 29. MOST  AMERICANS  THINK  IT  WAS  THE  RIGHT   DECISION  TO  WITHDRAW  TROOPS  FROM  IRAQ   28   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014     Overall,  do  you  think  the  United  States  did  the  right  thing  or  the  wrong  thing  by   withdrawing  most  of  its  troops  from  Iraq  in  2011?   Right  thing   70%   Wrong   thing   27%   Refused   3%  
  30. 30. A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  THINK  THAT   GETTING  INVOLVED  IN  THE  CURRENT  CONFLICT   IS  NOT  IN  THE  NATIONAL  INTEREST   29   Source:  Quinnipiac  University  Poll,  June  24-­‐30,  2014   56%   39%   Not  in  the  na.onal  interest   In  the  na.onal  interest   Do  you  think  it  is  in  the  na.onal  interest  of  the  United  States  to  be  involved  in   the  conflict  in  Iraq,  or  not?   *Unsure/No  answer  not  shown.  
  31. 31. THEREFORE,  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  OPPOSE   SENDING  GROUND  TROOPS  BACK  INTO  IRAQ   30   Source:  Quinnipiac  University  Poll,  June  24-­‐30,  2014   Support   29%   Oppose   63%   Unsure   8%   Do  you  support  or  oppose  the  U.S.  sending  ground  troops  back  into  Iraq  to   help  the  Iraqi  government  defeat  Islamic  militants?    
  32. 32. HOWEVER,  A  PLURALITY  OF  AMERICANS  ARE   DISSATISFIED  WITH  HOW  THE  U.S.  IS  HANDLING   THE  RISE  OF  ISIS   31   When  it  comes  to  how  the  United  States  is  dealing  with  the  rise  of  the  terrorists  group  Isis   in  Iraq  are  you  sa.sfied  or  dissa.sfied  with  our  ac.ons  or  do  you  not  know  enough  to  have   an  opinion  one  way  or  the  other?  [IF  DISSATISFIED]  And  is  this  because  the  United  States   has  gopen  too  involved  or  not  involved  enough?   Sa.sfied   14%   Don't  know   enough  to  have    an  opinion   40%   Not  sure   4%   Dissa.sfied,  too   involved   Dissa.sfied,  not   involved  enough   Dissa.sfied     42%   Source:  NBC  News/WallStreet  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014     12%   30%  
  33. 33. AND  AMERICANS  ARE  DIVIDED  ON  AIR  STRIKES   AGAINST  THE  SUNNI  INSURGENTS   32   45%   46%   8%   Support   Oppose   No  opinion   Overall,  do  you  support  or  oppose  U.S.  airstrikes  against  the  Sunni  insurgents  in  Iraq?   Source:  ABC  News/Washington  Post  Poll,  June  18-­‐22,  2014    
  34. 34. MOST  AMERICANS  DO  NOT  THINK  THAT  A   DEMOCRATIC  GOVERNMENT  WILL  BE  ESTABLISHED   33   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014     Very/ somewhat   likely     16%   Not  too/not  at   all  likely   80%   Refused/Not   Answered   3%   How  likely  is  it  that  a  stable,  democra.c  government  will  be  established  in  Iraq?  
  35. 35. AFGHANISTAN   34  
  36. 36. A  MAJORITY  THINKS  THE  SITUATION  IN  AFGHANISTAN   IS  IMPORTANT  AND  DISAPPROVES  OF  HOW  THE   PRESIDENT  IS  HANDLING  IT   35   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   40%   31%   28%   Extremely/Very   Important   Moderately   Important   Slightly/Not   Important   How  important  are  each  of  the  following   issues  to  you  personally?  [The  Situa.on  in   Afghanistan]   Approve   22%   Lean  toward   approving   15%   Don't  lean   either  way   2%   Lean   towards   disapproving   15%   Disapprove   45%   Overall,  do  you  approve,  disapprove,  or   neither  approve  nor  disapprove  of  the  way   Barak  Obama  is  handling  [The  Situa.on  in   Afghanistan]  
  37. 37. MOST  AMERICANS  THINK  HISTORY  WILL     REMEMBER  THE  AFGHAN  WAR  AS  A  FAILURE   36   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   2%   21%   51%   23%   Complete  success   More  of  a  successs   than  failure   More  of  a  failure   than  success   Complete  failure   Just  your  best  guess,  how  do  you  think  history  will  judge  the  war  in  Afghanistan?   74%   *Refused/Not  Answered  not  shown.  
  38. 38. AND  MOST  AMERICANS  SAY  THE  U.S.  DID  THE   RIGHT  THING  BY  PLANNING  TO  WITHDRAW   37   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   Right  thing   70%   Wrong   thing   26%   Refused   4%   Overall,  do  you  think  the  United  States  is  doing  the  right  thing  or  the  wrong   thing  by  planning  to  withdraw  most  of  its  troops  from  Afghanistan  in  2014?  
  39. 39. HOWEVER,  HALF  OF  AMERICANS  NOW  THINK  THE   SITUATION  IN  AFGHANISTAN  WILL  GET  WORSE   38   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   31%   19%   22%   16%   11%   23%   29%   31%   32%   50%   44%   49%   46%   51%   37%   Dec  2009   Aug  2010   Sept  2010   Dec  2013   Jul  2014   Get  beSer   Over  the  next  year,  do  you  expect  the  situa.on  in  Afghanistan  to:   Get  worse   Stay  about   the  same   +18   *Refused/Not  Answered  not  shown.  
  40. 40. AND  ULTIMATELY,  MOST  AMERICANS  THINK   THAT  IT  IS  NOT  LIKELY  THAT  A  DEMOCRATIC   GOVERNMENT  WILL  BE  ESTABLISHED   39   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014     Very  likely   2%   Somewhat  likely   18%   Not  too  likely   50%   Not  at  all  likely   28%   Refused/Not   answered   2%   How  likely  is  it  that  a  stable,  democra.c  government  will  be  established  in  Afghanistan?   78%  say  it  is  not   too  or  not  at  all  likely   that  a  stable   democra.c   government  will  be   established  
  41. 41. 40 GPG  Research     GPG  has  a  full-­‐scale  internal  research  team  offering  the  full  complement  of  qualita.ve  and   quan.ta.ve  public  opinion  research  services.    We  use  research  to  inform  message   development  and  communica.on  strategy,  as  well  as  to  help  clients  assess  and  monitor   cri.cal  issues  and  track  the  effec.veness  of  strategic  communica.on  campaigns.     GPG  has  a  deep  experience  conduc.ng  research  about  complex  interna.onal  affairs  topics   with  diverse  audiences.  We  go  beyond  the  standard  Q&A,  using  innova.ve,  projec.ve   techniques  to  uncover  key  insights.  The  result  is  ac.onable  research  that  helps  shape  our   clients’  messaging  and  strategy.     For  more  informaUon  about  this  presentaUon  or  to  find  out  more   about  GPG’s  research  capabiliUes  contact:               Jason  Boxt  (Jboxt@gpgdc.com)