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American Public Opinion Landscape – International Affairs

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American Public Opinion Landscape – International Affairs

  1. International Affairs: American Public Opinion Landscape NOVEMBER 2015
  2. PAGE 2 TA B L E O F C O N T ENTS Slide Current Political Landscape 3 Russia 8 ISIS 13 Iran 18 Refugee Crisis 24
  3. C u r r e n t P o l i t i c a l L a n d s c a p e
  4. Source: Gallup Poll, October 7-11, 2015 PAGE 4 F O R E IG N P O L I CY I S S U ES N O T T H E M O S T I M P O RTANT P R O B LEMS FA C I N G T H E U . S . Oct 2015 Dissatisfaction with government 16% Economy in general 13% Immigration/Illegal aliens 8% Unemployment/jobs 8% Guns/Gun control 7% Healthcare 6% Ethics/Moral/Religiousdecline 5% Federal budgetdeficit/Federal debt 5% Crime/Violence 5% Education 4% Oct 2015 Terrorism 3% Foreign policy/foreign aid/focus overseas 3% National security 2% International issues,problems 2% Situation in Iraq/ISIS 2% Wars/War (nonspecific)/Fear or war 2% Middle Eastconflict 2% Lack ofmilitary defense 2% *Non-Foreign policy issues below 4% not shown
  5. Source: Pollster.com Aggregate data, Latest Poll as of October 28, 2015 PAGE 5 I N W H AT WA S A S T R O NG S U I T I N H I S 1 S T T E R M , A M E R ICAN S N O W D I S A P PROV E O F O B A M A’ S J O B P E R F ORM ANCE O N F O R E IG N P O L I C Y Job Approval on Foreign Policy Disapprove49.4% Approve 35.3% Job Approvalon Foreign Policy worsethan Economy and HealthCare Approval % OverallApproval 45% The Economy 45% Healthcare 43% Foreign Policy 40%
  6. Source: FOX News Poll, 9/20-22,2015 – CNN Poll, 9/4-8 – Gallup Poll, 8/5-9 PAGE 6 A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS D I S AP PROV E O F T H E WAY B A R A C K O B A M A I S H A N D LI NG VA R I OUS I N T E RNAT ION AL I S S UE S 33% 42% 41% 58% 55% 55% The situation in Iran Foreign affairs Terrorism Disapprove Approve Do you approve or disapproveofthe way Barack Obamais handling– the situationin Iran,foreignaffairs,terrorism?
  7. Source: AP/NORC Poll, June 25 – July 7, 2015 PAGE 7 Do you think the UnitedStates shouldtake a more or less active role solvingthe world’s problems,or is its currentrole aboutright? A more active role, 27% Its currentrole is aboutright,33% A less active role, 38% Don’tknow,2% P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R IC ANS T H I N K T H E U N I TE D S TATES S H O ULD TA K E A L E S S A C T I VE R O L E I N S O LV ING T H E W O R LD’ S P R O B LE MS
  8. R U S S I A
  9. Source: Gallup Poll, February 8-11, 2015 PAGE 9 S E V E N I N T E N A M E R IC ANS H AV E A N U N FAVOR ABL E O P I N ION O F R U S S IA Next,I’d like your overallopinionofsome foreign countries.Whatis your overall opinion of[RUSSIA]? Is itvery favorable, mostly favorable,mostlyunfavorable,or very unfavorable? 40% 52% 66% 63% 41% 59% 61% 58% 53% 48% 40% 47% 51% 50% 44% 34% 24% 53% 42% 27% 26% 52% 35% 33% 35% 41% 46% 53% 45% 42% 44% 50% 60% 70% Nov-­‐00 Mar-­‐01 Jul-­‐01 Nov-­‐01 Mar-­‐02 Jul-­‐02 Nov-­‐02 Mar-­‐03 Jul-­‐03 Nov-­‐03 Mar-­‐04 Jul-­‐04 Nov-­‐04 Mar-­‐05 Jul-­‐05 Nov-­‐05 Mar-­‐06 Jul-­‐06 Nov-­‐06 Mar-­‐07 Jul-­‐07 Nov-­‐07 Mar-­‐08 Jul-­‐08 Nov-­‐08 Mar-­‐09 Jul-­‐09 Nov-­‐09 Mar-­‐10 Jul-­‐10 Nov-­‐10 Mar-­‐11 Jul-­‐11 Nov-­‐11 Mar-­‐12 Jul-­‐12 Nov-­‐12 Mar-­‐13 Jul-­‐13 Nov-­‐13 Mar-­‐14 Jul-­‐14 Nov-­‐14
  10. Source: Gallup Poll, February 8-11, 2015 PAGE 10 R U S S IA N O W S E E N A S U N I T ED S TAT ES’ G R E AT EST E N E M Y Whatone country anywhere in the worlddo you consider to be the UnitedStates’ greatestenemy today? [OPEN END] 6% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 9% 18% 2% 22% 15% 18% 9% 16% 10% 16% 15% 14% 10% 10% 11% 14% 16% 23% 20% 12% 8% 14% 31% 26% 25% 25% 32% 16% 9% 38% 22% 22% 21% 22% 7% 5% 7% 8% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Russia North Korea China Iran Iraq
  11. Source: NBC News / WSJ Survey, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 11 S E V E N I N T E N A M E R IC ANS H AV E A N U N FAVOR ABL E O P I N ION O F V L A D I MIR P U T I N Next,we’dlike to getyour overallopinion ofsome peoplein the news.As I readeach name,pleasesay ifyou have a favorable or unfavorable opinionofthese people – or ifyou have never heardaboutthem.How about[Vladimir Putin]? 13% 72% Favorable Unfavorable Note: Never heard of and No opinion not shown
  12. Source: CNN Poll, September 4-8, 2015 PAGE 12 A VA S T M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CANS P E R CEI VE R U S SIA A S A V E R Y O R M O D E RATE LY S E R IO US T H R EAT T O T H E U N I T ED S TAT ES Very serious threat, 49% Justa slight threat, 11% Moderately serious threat, 33% No threat at all, 7% Would you say that the following [RUSSIA] represent a very serious threat to the United States, a moderately serious threat, just a slight threat, or no threat at all? 82% Believe Russia Represents a Very or Moderately Serious Threat to the United States
  13. I S I S
  14. Source: Quinnipiac Poll, Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2015 PAGE 14 MAJORITIES OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THE U.S. IS LOSING THE FIGHT AGAINST ISIS AND THAT THINGS ARE GOING BADLY IN IRAQ & SYRIA FOR THE U.S. Do you think the United States and its allies are winning or losing the fight against ISIS? In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in its military action against ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria – very well, moderately well, moderately badly, or very badly? 16% 66% Winning Losing Note: Unsure results not shown Well Badly Total 31% Total 67% Moderately, 27% Very,4% Moderately, 36% Very,31% Source: CNN/ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015
  15. Source: CNN/ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015 PAGE 15 S E V E N I N T E N A M E R IC ANS T H I N K T H E P R E SI DEN T D O E S N O T H AV E A C L E A R P L A N F O R D E A L IN G W I T H I S I S 27% 71% 2% Yes, has a clear strategy No, does not have a clear strategy No opinion Do you think Barack Obamadoes or does nothave a clear planfor dealingwith ISIS?
  16. Source: YouGov Poll, September 30 – October 1, 2015 PAGE 16 A M E R IC ANS S U P P ORT A I R S T R I K ES A G A I NST I S I S R AT H ER T H A N S E N DI NG I N G R O U ND T R O OP S Do you supportor oppose U.S. air strikes in IraqandSyria againstISIS? Do you supportor oppose sendingU.S.ground troops to fight ISIS? 64% 61% 53% 88% 35% 26% 28% 59% Total Democrats Independents Republicans Air strikes Ground troops
  17. Source: CNN/ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015 PAGE 17 M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S A R E AT L E A S T S O M E WHAT W O R RI ED T H AT M I L I TA RY A C T IO N A G A IN ST I S I S W I L L L E A D T O A L A R G E R WA R How worriedare you thatthe military action againstISISforces in IraqandSyria will developinto a larger war thatcouldspread throughoutthe region andother parts ofthe world? Wouldyou say you arevery worried, somewhatworried,nottoo worried,or not worriedatall? Total worried: 76%
  18. I R A N
  19. Source: FOX News Poll, September 20-22, 2015 PAGE 19 MAJORITY OF AMERICANS THINK IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL WILL MAKE THE UNITED STATES LESS SAFE 26% 56% 5% 13% Safer Less safe No different DK/NA Do you think the agreementon Iran’s nuclear program will make the United States safer or less safe? 10% 22% 46% 80% 59% 32% 1% 9% 6% 9% 11% 16% Republicans Independents Democrats Safer Less safe No different DK/NA
  20. PAGE 20 Source QuestionText Support / Approve Oppose / Disapprove FOX News Oct. 10-12 For reference:Ifyou were in Congress andhad to castan up-or-downvote on the recentdeal withIran thatlifts sanctions for ten years in exchange for Iran curtailingits pursuitofa nuclear program over thattime period– would you approveor rejectthe deal? 31% 58% ABC News/ WashingtonPost Sep. 7-10 As you may know,the U.S.and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions againstIran in exchangefor Iran agreeingnotto produce nuclear weapons.International inspectors would monitor Iran’s facilities,andifIran is caught breaking the agreementeconomic sanctionswould beimposed again.Do you support or oppose this agreement? (askedof half sample) 51% 41% ABC News/ WashingtonPost Sep. 7-10 As you may know,the U.S.and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions againstIran in exchangefor Iran agreeingnotto produce nuclear weapons.Do you supportor oppose this agreement??(asked of half sample) 45% 44% CNN/ORC Sep. 4-8 Do you think Congress should approveor rejectthe deal with Iran? 47% 49% Pew Research Center Sep. 3-7 From whatyou know do youapprove or disapproveofthe recentagreementon Iran’s nuclear programbetween Iran,the UnitedStates and other nations? 21% 49% S U P P ORT F O R I R A N N U C LE AR D E A L VA R I ES D E P E NDI NG O N H O W THE Q U E S TI ON I S A S K E D
  21. Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 3-7, 2015 PAGE 21 A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS H AV E L I T T LE T O N O C O N F ID ENCE T H AT I R A N W I L L U P H O LD T H E T E R MS O F T H E A G R E EME NT How much confidence do you have that Iran’s leaders will uphold their side of the agreement? A greatdeal 2% A fair amount 18% Nottoo much 28% None atall 43% Unsure/Refused 9% Total with little to no confidence: 71%
  22. Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 3-7, 2015 PAGE 22 B U T A S M A L LE R M A J ORI TY O F A M E R ICA NS H AV E L I T T LE T O N O C O N F ID ENCE I N T H E U N I T E D S TATES’ A B I L I TY T O M O N I TOR I R A N How much confidence do youhavein the U.S. and international agencies’ ability to monitor Iran’s compliance with theagreement? A greatdeal 12% A fair amount 30% Nottoo much 27% None atall 24% Unsure/Refused 7% Total with little to no confidence: 51%
  23. Source: CNN Poll, September 4-8,2015 PAGE 23 MAJORITY OF AMERICANS WANT U.S. TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN IF THE AGREEMENT IS VIOLATED SupposeIran violates its terms,if thathappens,do you think the U.S. shouldor should nottake military actionagainstIran? Should take military action, 64% Should not take military action, 34% No opinion, 2%
  24. R E F U G E E C R I S I S
  25. Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 22-27, 2015 PAGE 25 M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S H AV E H E A R D A L O T A B O U T T H E R E F U GE E C R I SI S A N D A P L U R ALI TY O F A M E R ICA NS T H I NK T H E U . S . S H O U LD B E D O I N G M O R E T O A D D RE SS T H E S I T U ATI ON How much, if anything, haveyou heard about large numbers of migrants fleeingviolencein Syria and other countries andenteringEurope? A lot, 55% A little, 32% Nothing at all, 12% More, 44% Less, 19% Doing what it should, 31% In general, do youthink theUnitedStates should be doingmore, shouldbe doing less, or is the U.S. doing about what it should to address the refugee situation?
  26. Source: Pew Research Center, September 22-27, 2015 PAGE 26 A N D A S L I G H T M A J ORI TY O F A M E R I CAN S A P P RO VE O F T H E U N I T ED S TAT ES’ D E C I SI ON T O I N C R EAS E A C C E PTANC E O F R E F U GE ES Approve, 51% Disapprove, 45% Unsure, 4% 69% 51% 30% 29% 43% 67% 2% 5% 3% Democrats Independents Republicans Approve Disapprove Unsure In order to help deal with this situation,the United States recently announcedit will increase the number of refugees it accepts. All in all, do you approve or disapprove of this decision?
  27. Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, September 20-24, 2015 PAGE 27 BUT ALMOST A QUARTER OF AMERICANS THINK WE SHOULD TAKE IN NO ADDITIONAL SYRIAN REFUGEES Take none at all, 24% Right amount, 35% Take fewer, 17% Take more, 21% Not sure, 3% The Obama administrationis recommending the United States take in at leastten thousand (10,000) Syrian refugees over the next year. Do you think the United States should – take in more refugees from Syria, take in fewer refugees from Syria – this is about the right amount, or should theUnited States take no Syrian refugees at all?
  28. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com) G P G R e s e a r c h G P G h a s a f u l l - s e r v i c e r e s e a r c h t e a m o f f e r i n g a f u l l c o m p l e m e n t o f q u a l i t a t i ve a n d q u a n t i t a t i ve p u b l i c o p i n i o n , a s w e l l a s d i g i t a l , r e s e a r c h s e r v i c e s . W e u s e r e s e a r c h t o i n f o r m m e s s a g e d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s t r a t e g y , a s w e l l a s t o h e l p c l i e n t s a s s e s s a n d m o n i t o r c r i t i c a l i s s u e s a n d t r a c k t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s t r a t e g i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n c a m p a ig n s . G P G h a s e x t e n s i v e e x p e r i e n c e c o n d u c t i n g r e s e a r c h o n c o m p l e x i s s u e s a n d p o l i t i c a l t o p i c s w i t h d i v e r s e a u d i e n c e s . W e g o b e y o n d t h e s t a n d a r d Q & A , u s i n g i n n o v a t i v e , p r o j e c t i v e t e c h n i q u e s t o u n c o v e r k e y i n s i g h t s. T h e r e s u l t i s a c t i o n a b l e r e s e a r c h t h a t h e l p s s h a p e o u r c l i e n t s ’ m e s s a g i n g a n d s t r a t e g y .

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