1. S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis

2. PAGE 2
L O O K I NG F O R WA RD: W H AT ’S AT S TA K E I N 2 0 1 6
PRESIDENCY:
SENATE:
HOUSE:
Democrats will attempt to retain control of the White House.
Candidates will seek to become the 45th president of the
United States.
34 seats being contested – 10
Democratic seats and 24 Republican
seats. Democrats will need to win 5
seats from the Republicans to gain
control of the Senate.
All 435 seats will be up for election once
again.
Republicans Democrats
54 46
+8 -
Republicans Democrats
247 188
+59 -

3. M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y

4. PAGE 4
M A J O R IT Y O F A M E R I CA NS C O N T IN UE T O F E E L T H E N AT I ON I S
O N T H E W R O N G T R A CK
The percentage of
Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right
direction hasn’t topped 50%
in about a decade.
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 14, 2015
RIGHT DIRECTION 28.7%
WRONG TRACK 62.3%

5. 66%
60%
49% 46%
36%
Eisenhower (1959) Clinton (1999) Reagan (1987) Obama (2015) G.W. Bush (2007)
PAGE 5
O V E R AL L O B A MA’ S A P P R OVA L H I G H E R T H A N H I S P R E D E CES SOR
H A L F WAY T H R OU GH 7 TH Y E A R
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in September of
Third Year of 2nd Term
Weekly Approval Rating
Average
September 7 – 13, 2015
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

6. Source: Quinnipiac Poll, August 20-25 2015 PAGE 6
L A R G E PA RT IS AN D I V I D E O V E R P R E FE RENC E F O R D C
E X P E RI EN CE O R F O R O U T S I DE R
If you had to choose,which type of experience do you think would better help a candidate serve effectively
as president; someone who has experience in Washington or someone who is a Washington outsider?
45% 48%
21%
73%77%
18%
37%
55%
DC experience DC outsider
Total Republicans Democrats Independents

7. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N C Y :
R E P U B L I C A N N O M I N A T I O N

8. PAGE 8
S TA G E I S S E T F O R N E X T G O P D E B ATE

9. PAGE 9
D O N A L D T R U MP WA S B Y FA R T H E M O S T TA L KE D A B O U T
R E P U BL IC AN C A N D ID ATE O N L I N E*
Donald Trump
48%
Ted Cruz
8%
Ben Carson
7%
Rick Perry
7%
Jeb Bush
7%
Mike Huckabee
6%
Scott Walker
4%
Carly Fiorina
4%
Bobby Jindal
2%
Rand Paul
2%
Other
5%
Other Republican Candidates
Chris Christie 1%
Marco Rubio 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
John Kasich 1%
Rick Santorum 0%
George Pataki 0%
Jim Gilmore 0%
*Timeframe analyzed: September 8 – September 15, 2015
Using Brandwatch
N = 1 , 1 6 4 , 4 8 7

10. PAGE 10
T R U M P, C A R SO N S U R G E I N G O P R A C E
4%
24%
33%
6%
20%
21%
8%
12%
7%
8%
5%
0%
50%
March May July Now
2016 Republican Primary Reference
Among registered leaned Republicans
Donald
Trump
Ben
Carson
Jeb
Bush
Ted
Cruz
Marco
Rubio
Rand
Paul
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 33.8%
Ben Carson 18.8%
Jeb Bush 8.7%
Ted Cruz 6.3%
Marco Rubio 4.9%
Scott Walker 4.1%
John Kasich 2.9%
Carly Fiorina 2.5%
Rand Paul 2.5%
Chris Christie 2.1%
Rick Santorum 1.2%
Bobby Jindal 1.0%
Lindsey Graham 0.4%
Jim Gilmore 0.0%
George Pataki 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of September 15, 2015
Source: ABC/Washington Post Poll, Sept 7-10, 2015

11. PAGE 11
T R U M P L E A D S G O P F I E L D I N I A , N H , & S C
Source: CBS News / YouGov poll, September 3-10, 2015 Note: only candidates with at least 5% support shown

12. Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data PAGE 12
R E P U BL IC ANS H AV E H I S T ORI CAL LY N O M I NATE D E A R LY F R O N T-
R U N N ER S
Republican trial-heat poll closest to October of year prior to election
Date First place for nomination
Second place for nomination
or nominee
October 2011 Mitt Romney (20%) Herman Cain (18%)
October 2007 Rudy Giuliani (32%) John McCain (16%)
October 1999 George W. Bush (60%) Elizabeth Dole (11%)
September 1995 Bob Dole (46%) Phil Gramm (10%)
October 1987 George Bush (41%) Bob Dole (24%)
November 1979 Ronald Reagan (41%) Howard Baker (18%)
October 1975 Gerald Ford (48%) Ronald Reagan (25%)
October 1967 Richard Nixon (42%) Nelson Rockefeller (15%)
October 1963 Barry Goldwater (45%) Nelson Rockefeller (23%)
October 1959 Richard Nixon (67%) Nelson Rockefeller (19%)

13. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N C Y :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

14. PAGE 14
E X C L UD IN G F D R , I T ’ S B E E N 1 7 9 Y E A R S S I N C E D E M O CR ATS HAVE
W O N T H R E E C O N SE CUTI VE T E R MS
Just 27 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Obama for a third term if he could run for one.
If you exclude FDR succeeding himself by running for a third term in 1940, the only time it's happened
since the advent of the modern two-party system was in 1836 when Vice President Martin Van Buren
succeeded President Andrew Jackson. That was 179 years ago!!!
The Democrats have failed in four of their last five attempts to win three consecutive terms in office after
taking two elections with the same candidate (or his legal successor), with just President Roosevelt
winning in 1940.
The failed Democratic candidates include James Cox (1920), Adlai Stevenson (1952), Hubert Humphrey
(1968), and Al Gore (2000).

15. PAGE 15
S H O U L D B I D E N R U N ? R E S ULTS A R E M I X E D A M O N G D E MOCRATIC
P R I M A RY V O T ER S I N S TAT ES W I T H E A R L I EST C O N T ES TS
Source: CBS News / YouGov poll, September 3-10, 2015
34% 34%31%
44%
48%
25%
Should Should not
Iowa New
Hampshire South
Carolina

16. PAGE 16
O N L I N E C H ATT ER A B O U T D E M O CRAT IC C A N DI DATE S WA S S P L I T
M O R E E V E N LY, W I T H C L I N TON TA L KE D A B O U T T H E M O S T
Hillary Clinton,
48%
Bernie Sanders,
37%
Joe Biden, 14%
Martin O'Malley, 1%
Lincoln Chafee, 0.2%
Jim Webb, 0.2%
*Timeframe analyzed: September 8 – September 15, 2015
Using Brandwatch
N = 4 9 0 , 6 7 7
27% of online
conversations
about Hillary
Clinton focused on
the email
controversy.

17. PAGE 17
C L I N TO N’ S S U P P ORT D R O P S I N D E M O CR ATIC R A C E
66%
62% 63%
42%
5% 10%
14%
24%
12%
14%
12%
21%
March May July Now
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among registered leaned Democrats
Hillary
Clinton
Bernie
Sanders
Joe
Biden
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 43.3%
Bernie Sanders 25.2%
Joe Biden 19.4%
Martin O’Malley 1.6%
Jim Webb 1.1%
Lincoln Chafee 0.6%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of September 15, 2015
Source: ABC/Washington Post Poll, Sept 7-10, 2015

18. PAGE 18
S A N D ER S S U R G ES I N I A , N H ; C L I N TO N U P I N S C
Source: CBS News / YouGov poll, September 3-10, 2015

19. PAGE 19
FAV O RA BLE V I E WS O F C L I N TON D R O P; P E R S ONA L E - M A I L
S I T U AT IO N A P P E ARS T O B E TA K I NG A T O L L
Source: AP-GfK poll, July 9-13, 2015 Source: ABC/Washington Post Poll, Sept 7-10, 2015
Do you approve or disapprove ofthe way Hillary Clinton is handling
questions abouther use ofpersonale-mail while she was secretary ofstate?
Do you think Clinton has honestly disclosedthe facts abouther use of
personal e-mail whilesecretary ofstate or has she triedto cover upthe facts?
55%
34%
Disapprove
Approve
54%
34%
Cover up the facts
Honestly
disclosed

20. PAGE 20
B U T D O E S I T E V E N M AT T ER: A P L U R A LI TY O F A M E R I CANS D O N ’ T
P L A N O N V O T I N G I N T H E P R I M A RI ES AT A L L
Vote in
Democratic
Primary
30%
Wait until
the general
election
39%
Not sure
1%
Vote in
Republican
Primary
30%
If there were a primary election in your
state, wouldyou vote in the Democratic
primary, the Republican primary, or would
you wait to vote in the general election?
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, July 26-30 2015

21. PAGE 21
D E B ATE C A L E ND AR
Note: All dates tentative and subject to change
Date Party/State/Network
Wednesday, September 16, 2015 Republican – California (CNN)
Tuesday, October 13, 2015 Democratic – Nevada (CNN)
Wednesday, October 28, 2015 Republican – Colorado (CNBC)
Saturday, November 14, 2015 Democratic – Iowa (CBS News)
November 2015 (date TBD)
Republican – Wisconsin (Fox Business
Network)
Wednesday, December 15, 2015 Republican – Nevada (CNN)
Saturday, December 19, 2015
Democratic – New Hampshire (ABC
News)
Sunday, January 17, 2016 Democratic – South Carolina (NBC)

22. PAGE 22
E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I M ARY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R
Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016
Date State
Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus)
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary)
Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary)
Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus)
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Texas, Georgia, Tennessee,
Alabama, Arkansas
Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary)

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