1. M a y 2 5 , 2 0 1 5
The Public’s Take –
The Economy

2. PAGE 2
TA B L E O F C O N T E NTS
Slide
Current Economic Indicators 3
Economic Conditions and Views of the Future 4
Views of Obama and the Economy 12
Perceptions of Foreign Trade 16
The Economy and the Election 21

3. PAGE 3
U N E M PL OYM ENT R AT E H A S I M P R OV ED W H I L E O T H ER E C O NO MI C
I N D I C ATOR S H AV E L A G G ED
INDICATOR
LAST YEAR
May 2015
NOW
May 2016
Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.0%
Inflation Rate -0.1% 1.1%
Stock Market (DJIA) 18,191.11 17,706.05
Consumer Confidence Index 95.2 94.2
U.S. Interest Rates .25% .50%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Yahoo! Finance, The Conference Board, Trading Economics
Data as of May 25th

4. E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S A N D V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E
PAGE 4

5. PAGE 5
S T R O NG M A J O RI TY A R E W O R R I ED T H AT T H E U . S . W I L L S U F F E R
A N O T HE R E C O N OMI C D O W N TUR N T H AT W I L L N E G ATI VELY
A F F E CT T H E IR FA M I LY
31%
41%
20%
7%
1%
% Worried the U.S. Will Suffer Another Economic Downturn
Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Unsure
72% Worried
Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016

6. PAGE 6
H A L F O F V O T E R S S T R O NGLY B E L I E VE T H AT T H E N E X T
G E N E RAT IO N W I L L N O T B E B E T T E R O F F E C O N O MI CAL LY
50%
15%
8%
13%
15%
% Believe the Next Generation Will Be Better Off
Economically
No, strongly No Unsure Yes Yes, strongly
65% No
Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016

7. Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016 PAGE 7
G O P V O T E R S, E S P EC IAL LY T R U MP S U P P ORT ERS , S AY L I F E I N
T H E U . S . H A S G O T T E N W O R S E F O R P E O P L E L I K E T H E M
46%
66%
28%
75%
34%
22%
34%
19%
48%
13%
45%
53%
14%
10%
17%
8%
15%
18%
All voters
Republicans/Lean Republicans
Democrats/Lean Democrats
Trump Supporters
Clinton Supporters
Sanders Supporters
Compared with 50 Years Ago, Life for People Like You in America Is…
Worse Better Same

8. Source: Pew Research Center Poll, March 17-27, 2016 PAGE 8
B U T A M E R I CAN S’ V I E W S O F T H E E C O N O MY A R E A P P R OA CHI NG
P R E - R ECES SI ON L E V E LS
How would you rate economic conditions in this country today… as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
22% 25%
56%
68%
53% 53% 51%
40% 36% 40%
33% 30% 28% 28%
44% 40%
32%
25%
39% 38% 38%
43% 48% 43%
45%
43% 45% 43%
29% 27%
10% 6% 6% 7% 9% 15% 14% 15% 19% 24% 24% 26%
4% 6% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%
Mar
2006
June
2007
Mar
2008
Mar
2009
Mar
2010
Mar
2011
Mar
2012
Mar
2013
Dec
2013
Apr
2014
Oct
2014
May
2015
Dec
2015
Mar
2016
Excellent
Good
Only fair
Poor
Note: “DK/REF” results are not shown.

9. PAGE 9
S A N D ER S’ S U P PO RTER S O V E RW HEL MIN GLY B E L I EV E T H E U . S .
E C O N OM IC S Y S TE M FAV O RS T H E P O W E RF UL
68%
54%
80%
61%
73%
91%
30%
44%
19%
38%
25%
9%
All voters
Republicans/Lean Republicans
Democrats/Lean Democrats
Trump Supporters
Clinton Supporters
Sanders Supporters
% of Voters Who Say Economic System in the U.S. …
Unfairly favors powerful interests Generally fair to most Americans
Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016

10. PAGE 10
A N D T H E R E I S A L A R G E PA R TI SAN D I V I DE O N V I E W S O F
C O R P OR ATE P R O F I TS
57%
37%
75%
43%
69%
82%
39%
58%
22%
53%
27%
16%
All voters
Republicans/Lean Republicans
Democrats/Lean Democrats
Trump Supporters
Clinton Supporters
Sanders Supporters
% of Voters Who Say Business Corporations…
Make too much profit Make a fair and reasonable amount
Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016

11. Source: Gallup Poll, April 6-10, 2016 PAGE 11
10% 11%
17%
21%
26%
30% 43% 40%
89% 88%
81%
77%
71%
66%
53%
58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 April 2016
Good time
Bad time
A M E R I CAN S S L I G HT LY L E S S P O S I T IV E A B O U T F I N D IN G A J O B
Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a
good time or a bad time to find a quality job?

12. V I E W S O F O B A M A A N D T H E E C O N O M Y
PAGE 12

13. PAGE 13
O B A M A’ S J O B A P P R O VAL AT O R N E A R 5 0 % ; U P 4 - P O I NTS F R O M
T H I S T I M E L A S T Y E A R
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 24, 2016
Term
52-Week High 53% May 7-9, 2016
52-Week Low 42% Dec 16-18, 2015
All-Time High 69% Jan 22-24, 2009
All-Time Low 38% Sep 3-5, 2014
Term Avg to Date 48% Jan 20, 2009 –
May 25, 2016
Current Quarter Avg to
Date
51% Apr 20 – May 25,
2016
Last Quarter Avg 49.5% Jan 20 – Apr 19,
2016
APPROVE 49.6%
DISAPPROVE 47.3%
Obama’s Overall Job Approval

14. 65%
57%
51% 48%
29%
Eisenhower (1960) Clinton (2000) Obama (2016) Reagan (1988) G.W. Bush (2008)
PAGE 14
O V E R AL L O B A MA’ S A P P R OVA L N E A R I NG T H AT O F C L I N TO N’S
H A L F WAY T H R OU GH F I N A L Y E A R
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in May of Final Year of 2nd Term
Weekly Approval Rating
Average
May 16 – 22, 2016
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

15. Source: HuffPost Pollster Average PAGE 15
45%
42% 41%
48%
51%
48%
The economy Health Care Foreign Policy
Approve Disapprove
O B A M A O N T H E I S S U E S
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?

16. P E R C E P T I O N S O F F O R E I G N T R A D E
PAGE 16

17. PAGE 17
M A J O R IT Y O F A M E R I CA NS S T I L L S E E O P P O RT UNI TY I N
F O R E I GN T R A D E
What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for
economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports?
Source: Gallup Poll, April 21-24, 2016
44%
53%
54%
56%
51% 52%
49%
44%
45%
43%
41%
44% 45% 46%
57%
54%
58% 58%
48%
38%
35%
36%37% 39% 41%
48%
46%
48%
52%
47% 45% 46%
35%
38%
33% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Opportunity for economic growth Threat to the economy

18. Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016 PAGE 18
B U T M O S T B E L I E VE I N T E RN ATI ONAL T R A D E D E A L S H AV E B E E N
B A D F O R T H E U . S . E C O N O MY
27%
29%
44%
Bad for the
U.S. economy
Good for the
U.S. economy
Not sure
NAFTA
Has
Been…
12%
13%
23%
50%Bad for the
U.S. economy
Good for the
U.S. economy
Not sure
International
Trade
Deals
Have
Been…
Have not had much impact
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, March 19-22, 2016

19. PAGE 19
T R U M P S U P P ORTE RS V I E W F R E E T R A DE A G R EE MEN TS A S B A D
F O R T H E U N I T ED S TATES
43%
53%
34%
67%
31%
38%
47%
38%
56%
27%
58%
55%
All voters
Republicans/Lean Republicans
Democrats/Lean Demcorats
Trump Supporters
Clinton Supporters
Sanders Supporters
% of Voters Who Say Free Trade Agreements Have Been a Good/Bad Thing for the U.S.
Bad Thing Good Thing
Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17-27, 2016

20. PAGE 20
M A J O R IT Y O F A M E R I CA NS B E L I E VE O U R T R A D E P O L I C Y S H O UL D
H AV E M O R E R E S TR ICT IO NS
12%
22%
65%More restrictions
Fewer restrictions
Not sure
U.S.
Trade
Policy
Should
Have…
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, March 19-22, 2016
Generally speaking, do you
think U.S. trade policy should
have more restrictions on
imported foreign goods to
protect American jobs, or have
fewer restrictions to enable
American consumers to have
the most choices and the
lowest prices?

21. E C O N O M Y A N D T H E E L E C T I O N

22. PAGE 22
T H E E C O N O MY I S S E E N A S T H E M O S T I M P O RTA NT I S S U E F O R
T H E N E X T P R E S I DENT T O A D D R ESS
19%
14%
11%
10%
8%
6%
5% 5%
3%
The
economy
Dysfunction
in
government
Foreign
threats
Jobs Health care Social
Security
Illegal
immigration
The deficit Taxes
Most Important Issue for the Next President
Source: GW Battleground Poll, April 17-20, 2016

23. PAGE 23
R E P U BL IC ANS A R E M U C H M O R E L I K E LY T O M E N T IO N T H E
E C O N OM Y A S T H E M O S T I M P O RTANT P R O B LE M FA C I NG T H E U . S .
17% 16%
22%
8%
15%
16%
28%
23%
29%
14% 13%
15%
10%
12%
19%
16% 17% 16%
14%
9%
14%
8%
12%
4%
12% 13%
11%
Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16
% Mentioning Economy as Most Important Problem
Republicans Independents Democrats
Source: Gallup Poll, May 4-8, 2016

24. Source: Gallup Poll, April 6-10, 2016 PAGE 24
I N D E P ENDE NTS M O S T C O N F ID ENT I N S A N D E RS O N E C O N OM Y
49% 56%
68%
47%
43%
30%
Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Americans’ Confidence in Presidential Candidates to Handle the Economy
Only a little/Almost none Great deal/Fair amount
Republicans: 17%
Independents: 46%
Democrats: 74%
Republicans: 12%
Independents: 35%
Democrats: 79%
Republicans: 58%
Independents: 30%
Democrats: 9%

25. PAGE 25
T H E E C O N O MY D U R I NG P R E SI DE NTI AL E L E CT IO NS
§ The economy has reliably been one of the most important factors influencing a presidential election.
§ A strong economy helps to keep the party in power in power.
§ A weak economy tends to cause voters to want to change the residents of the White House.
§ But right now, the economy could be best described as moderately, perhaps deceptively, successful.
§ Growth is lukewarm, but it has been consistent enough to create hundreds of thousands of new
jobs. Wages have not risen by much, and the uneven recovery has left segments of the
population behind. But the overall unemployment rate is down to 5 percent. That’s unusual for a
presidential election season — it has been at 5 percent or lower in only three of the 14 contests
that have taken place since 1960.
§ The quiet strength of the economy may have an impact on the campaign.
§ Jobs and economic growth will always matter to voters, but the lack of stark economic problems
may allow other issues and unconventional policies to rise to the forefront.
Source: New York Times.

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