Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit

International Affairs: Brexit
Public Opinion Landscape
JUNE 2016

TA B L E O F C O N T ENTS
Slide
American Views Toward Europe and the EU 3
European Views Toward the U.S. and the EU 8
American & European Views 12
Brexit 17

A m e r i c a n V i e w s T o w a r d E u r o p e a n d t h e E U

Source: Gallup Country Ratings, February 3-7, 2016 PAGE 4
C O U N TRI ES A M E R IC ANS H AV E A FAV O RAB LE O P I N IO N O F
53%
54%
59%
71%
73%
75%
82%
85%
87%
90%
93%
39%
40%
38%
24%
18%
18%
12%
10%
8%
4%
7%
Egypt
Cuba
Mexico
Israel
Brazil
India
Japan
Germany
France
Great Britain
Canada
Favorable Unfavorable

Source: Gallup Country Ratings, February 3-7, 2016 PAGE 5
C O U N TRI ES A M E R IC ANS H AV E A U N FAVOR ABLE O P I NI ON O F
8%
12%
14%
15%
15%
19%
21%
30%
37%
44%
86%
80%
79%
79%
78%
68%
70%
65%
55%
52%
North Korea
Syria
Iran
Iraq
Afganistan
Palestinian Authority
Pakistan
Russia
Saudi Arabia
China
Favorable Unfavorable

A M E R IC AN V I E W S O F T H E E U R O P EAN U N I O N M O R E P O S IT IVE
T H A N N E G AT IVE
53%
39%
47%
56% 57%
55%
50% 50%
58%
53%
14%
26%
22% 23%
20%
22% 21%
26% 26% 27%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% saying they have a _______ view of the EU…
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, April 4-24, 2016
Unfavorable
Favorable

A M E R IC ANS V I E W E U R OP EAN T I E S A S M O R E I M P O RTANT T H A N
A S I A N T I E S
50% 49%
44%
37%
50%
52%
31% 31%
34%
47%
35%
32%
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, April 4-24, 2016
% saying ties to the nations of ________ are most importantto the U.S….
Asia
Europe

E u r o p e a n V i e w s T o w a r d t h e U . S . a n d t h e E U

H O W E U R O PE ANS S E E T H E U . S . , O T H ER P O T ENT IAL T H R EAT S
23%
26%
28%
31%
33%
34%
34%
34%
39%
71%
Hungary
Greece
UK
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
France
Italy
Spain
Poland
% saying each is a major threat to their country
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey
Tensions
with Russia
23%
25%
31%
28%
21%
18%
43%
47%
56%
47%
23%
43%
24%
25%
19%
12%
28%
21%
42%
25%
China’s emergence
as a world power
U.S. power
and influence

M O S T E U R OPE ANS S E E U . S . A S M O R E I M P O RTANT T H A N A S I A
41%
43%
23%
25%
30%
38%
34%
31%
19%
13%
43%
49%
50%
51%
53%
56%
56%
57%
60%
60%
Germany
Sweden
Hungary
Greece
UK
France
Netherlands
Spain
Italy
Poland
Which area do you think is more important to Europe?
Asia U.S.

E U FAV O RAB ILI TY VA R I ES W I D E LY I N E U R O P E
27%
38%
44%
47%
50%
51%
54%
58%
61%
72%
71%
61%
48%
49%
48%
46%
44%
39%
37%
22%
Greece
France
UK
Spain
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
Italy
Hungary
Poland
Favorable UnfavorableViews of EU?

A m e r i c a n & E u r o p e a n V i e w s

A M E R IC ANS A N D E U R O PE ANS A G R EE I S I S I S T O P T H R EAT
34%
30%
66%
49%
60%
54%
76%
42%
50%
53%
55%
67%
72%
80%
Tensionswith Russia
China's emergence as a
world power
Global climate change
Large number ofrefugees
leaving Iraq/Syria
Global economic instability
Cyberattacks from other
countries
ISIS
% saying each is a major threat to their country
U.S.
Europe median
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. U.S. survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.

A M E R IC AN A N D E U R O PEA N V I E W S O N G L O B A L E N G A GEM ENT
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey, U.S. Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016
40%
40%
45%
51%
52%
60%
65%
67%
77%
83%
Germany
Spain
Sweden
Netherlands
UK
France
Poland
Italy
Hungary
Greece
% who say…
Country should deal
with its own problems
11%
50%
28%
30%
40%
46%
28%
52%
33%
65%
24%
39%
25%
24%
29%
45%
27%
44%
34%
57%
Country is less important
that it was 10 yearsago
Global economic
engagement is a bad thing
57%U.S. 46% 49%

A M E R IC ANS, M A N Y E U R OP EAN S WA N T T O F O C U S O N O W N
C O U N TRY’ S P R O B LEM S
40%
40%
45%
51%
52%
60%
65%
67%
77%
83%
55%
53%
51%
43%
43%
36%
21%
22%
18%
12%
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands
UK
France
Poland
Italy
Hungary
Greece
Our country should…
Deal with its own problems and let other
countries deal with their own problems
Help other countries deal
with their problems
57% 37%U.S.

I N G E N E RA L, A M E R IC ANS M O R E N E G ATI VE T O WAR D G L O BA L
E C O N OMI C E N G A GEME NT
57%
44%
27%
45%
39%
34%
29%
24%
25%
24%
35%
44%
48%
51%
56%
56%
64%
70%
71%
72%
Greece
Italy
Poland
France
Spain
Hungary
UK
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands
Global economic engagement is a _____
Bad thing because it lowers
wages and costs jobs
Good thing because it
creates new markets, growth
49% 44%U.S.

Source: Financial Times UK’s EU referendum Brexit poll tracker. Updated June 22th PAGE 18
S U P P ORT F O R B R E X IT G R O W S A S W E N E A R V O T E I N U K
40%
44% 42%
47% 48% 49%
45% 47% 45% 44% 44%
47%
44% 43% 43% 43% 44%
44%
38% 39% 38% 36% 35%
33%
37% 39% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 42%
45%
Leave
Remain Remain % Leave %
Undecided
%
Date Pollster
45 44 11 20-Jun-16 Survation
53 46 2 19-Jun-16 ORB
42 44 13 19-Jun-16 YouGov
45 42 13 18-Jun-16 Survation
44 44 12 17-Jun-16 Opinium
42 44 14 17-Jun-16 YouGov
44 43 13 16-Jun-16 YouGov
LATEST POLLS

Source: Financial Times UK’s EU referendum Brexit poll tracker. Updated June 22th PAGE 19
V O L ATI LIT Y I N R E C E NT P O L L I NG
42%
44%
38%
48% 48%
52%
41%
47% 48%
45%
43% 43%
48% 45%
40%
46%
41%
35%
41% 42%
43%
44% 44%
55%
47%
44%
45% 44%
5/3 5/8 5/13 5/18 5/23 5/28 6/2 6/7 6/12 6/17
Leave
Remain

“ R E M AI N” L E A DS I N B E T T I NG M A R KE TS
Remain (1/4)
57%
Leave (3/1)
43%
MostPopular Bets
Oddschecker Brexit Referendum Betting Odds June 21

C O N S ID ERATI ONS D R I VI NG V O T I NG B E H AVIO RS
30%
19%
29%
4%
9%
9%
Which is likely to be better for jobs, investment and the
economy generally
Which is likely to help us deal better with theissue of
immigration
Which is likely to strike a better balance betweenBritain's right
to act independently,and the appropriatelevel of co-operation
with other countries
Which is likely to maximise Britain's influence in the world
Something else
None of these
Source: YouGov/Times Survey 6/17-6/19
Which ONEofthe followingwill be the mostimportantto you in decidinghowto vote in the referendum?

W H Y B R I T ONS M I G H T WA N T T O L E AV E
More
immigration
into Britain,
4%
Less
immigration
into Britain
54%
Would make
no difference
to the amount
of immigration
30%
Don't know
12%
Do you think there would be more or less immigration into Britain if we left
the European Union, or would it make no difference?
Good for NHS
34%
Bad for NHS
23%
Would make
no difference
to the NHS
26%
Don't know
17%
Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on theNHS if we left the
European Union, or would it make no difference?

W H Y B R I T ONS M I G H T WA N T T O R E M A I N
Better off
22%
Worse off
37%
Would make
no real
difference to
the British
economy
25%
Don't know
15%
Do you think Britain would be economically better or worse off if we left
Good for jobs
21%
Bad for jobs
36%
Would make
no difference
to British jobs
28%
Don't know
16%
Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on British jobs if we left

E U R O PE ANS O V E R WHEL MING LY A G R EE T H AT U K D E PART URE
W O U L D H U R T T H E E U
57%
62%
65%
66%
70%
70%
74%
75%
89%
23%
32%
14%
11%
16%
10%
16%
17%
8%
Italy
France
Greece
Poland
Spain
Hungary
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
If the UK were to leave the EuropeanUnion, this would be a ________ for the EU?
Bad thing Good thing

E U R O PE AN V I E W S A B O U T T H E F U T U RE O F T H E E U
35%
38%
39%
39%
40%
43%
44%
47%
65%
68%
27%
39%
21%
26%
35%
25%
29%
38%
25%
18%
30%
9%
34%
21%
17%
26%
24%
13%
6%
8%
Spain
Poland
France
Italy
Hungary
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
UK
Greece
Some powers should be
returned to national govts
Division of powers should
remain the same
National govts should transfer
more powers to EU
Which statement best describes your views aboutthe future ofthe EuropeanUnion?

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a n d q u a n t i t a t i ve p u b l i c o p i n i o n , a s w e l l a s d i g i t a l , r e s e a r c h s e r v i c e s . W e u s e
r e s e a r c h t o i n f o r m m e s s a g e d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s t r a t e g y , a s w e l l
a s t o h e l p c l i e n t s a s s e s s a n d m o n i t o r c r i t i c a l i s s u e s a n d t r a c k t h e
e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s t r a t e g i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n c a m p a ig n s .
G P G h a s e x t e n s i v e e x p e r i e n c e c o n d u c t i n g r e s e a r c h o n c o m p l e x i s s u e s a n d
p o l i t i c a l t o p i c s w i t h d i v e r s e a u d i e n c e s . W e g o b e y o n d t h e s t a n d a r d Q & A ,
u s i n g i n n o v a t i v e , p r o j e c t i v e t e c h n i q u e s t o u n c o v e r k e y i n s i g h t s. T h e r e s u l t i s
a c t i o n a b l e r e s e a r c h t h a t h e l p s s h a p e o u r c l i e n t s ’ m e s s a g i n g a n d s t r a t e g y .

Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit

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