Danny Dorling, Annual Education Lecture, King's College London, June 23rd 2015.

1. Theories
of
Poten-al
and
the
Crea-on
of
Inequality
Danny
Dorling
King’s
College
London
June
23rd
2015

2. Meet
Toby
Morris
Toby
is
a
illustrator
I
have
never
met,
but
his
work
increases
my
poten-al.
You
can
see
it
at:
h"p://thewireless.co.nz/ar3cles/the-­‐pencilsword-­‐on-­‐a-­‐plate

3. Meet
Richard
and
Paula
A
huge
range
of
factors
will
influence
what
happens
to
Richard
and
Paula,
not
least:
chance.
But
how
they
look
will
also
maQer
–
we
could
study
iden-cal
twins
if
we
were
interested
in
how
much
looks
maQered.

4. Of
course
individual
effects
are
of
very
small
importance
compared
to
the
societal
factors
shown
above
–
but
people
are
obsessed
by
individuality.
However,
you
cannot
have
a
control
group
of
iden-cal
twins
who
do
not
look
similar,
so
in
these
cases
‘twin
studies’
cannot
be
made
independent
of
‘looks
studies’.

5. Society
maQers
most
–
we
did
not
have
to
work
two
jobs
per
person
un-l
recently.
But
if
you
want
know
why
individualist
aQributes
(like
looks)
maQer
as
well
as
society,
consider
how
o[en
unarmed
black
Americans
are
shot
by
the
police.
hQp://www.theguardian.com/us-­‐news/2015/jun/01/black-­‐americans-­‐killed-­‐by-­‐police-­‐analysis

6. Of
course,
issues
like
school
and
family
maQer
most
-­‐
but
individual
factors
do
too.
Skin
colour
is
a
special
case,
but
what
about
sex,
and
height,
and
weight,
and
hair
colour,
and
the
prominence
of
cheekbones
and
chin,
and
distance
between
the
eyes?
They
affect
our
snap
judgments
about
how
intelligent
people
are
and
what
they
might
or
might
not
be
good
at,
but
also
affect
our
more
considered
judgments:
See
Study
of
June
8th
2015:
hQp://www.ioe.ac.uk/newsEvents/
113498.html
or
a
John
Hade
video:
hQps://www.youtube..com/watch?v=rzwJXUieD0U

7. Societal
factors
mater
most.
And
history:
grades
are
only
a
recent
inven-on.
There
will
also
be
numerous
correla-ons
between
physical
characteris-cs
and
expected
performance.
And
expected
performance
will
affect
actual
performance,
see
the
Rosenthal–Jacobson
study
(telling
teachers
children
are
able
then
helps
teaching)
h"ps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pygmalion_effect

8. When
it
comes
to
people,
the
word
poten&al
has
come
to
mean
very
different
things
to
different
readers.
The
UN
Conven3on
on
the
Rights
of
the
Child
states
that
“educa-onal
establishments
should
be
well
funded
and
governments
should
take
all
necessary
steps
to
create
an
environment
where
all
children
can
grow
and
reach
their
full
poten&al.”
One
reac-on
to
this
use
of
that
phrase
at
that
point
is
to
cast
doubt
on
the
idea
that
many
children
have
much
poten-al
and
to
then
suggest
that
just
a
few
need
to
be
sought
out
and
specially
nurtured.

9. Circumstances
maQer
and
are
influenced
by
where
you
live.
More
parents
are
more
o[en
sick
in
areas
of
depriva-on.
They
are
no
internships
in
other
areas,
whether
you
can
afford
to
take
an
internship
or
not.
From
very
early
on
in
life,
through
to
young
adulthood
all
kinds
of
factors
are
at
play
that
determine
who
wins
and
who
loses
monetarily.
The
most
monied
get
most
‘educated’
and
get
the
highest
grades.
But
what
kind
of
an
educa-on
is
that
really,
and
for
what
end?

10. However,
more
compelling
evidence
suggests
that
we
have
the
poten-al
to
think,
dream
and
become
beQer
than
this.
But
that
poten-al
is
collec-ve,
not
individualis-c,
and
will
not
be
fully
realized
while
we
are
so
diverted
by
the
search
for
the
‘golden
child’
–
the
mythical
individual
with
the
greatest
inherent
poten-al
of
all.
THE
RICHEST
1%
WOULD
OWN
THIS

11. Some
genes
might
give
you
a
slight
edge
over
other
people
for
something,
but
you’re
likely
to
not
be
so
good
at
something
else.
This
is
what
you
would
expect
from
evolu-on.
There
are
no
super-­‐genes.
Some
genes
can
cause
gene-c
disorders
that
result
in
handicaps,
and
that
is
why
those
genes
are
rela-vely
rare.
Advantageous
genes
are
common
precisely
because
they
are
advantageous.
And:
“Although
the
striking
visual
similarity
of
iden3cal
twins
reveals
the
gene3c
penetrance
of
facial
appearance,
a
comparison
of
gene3cally
iden3cal
irises
reveals
just
the
opposite
for
iris
pa"erns:
the
iris
sequence
is
an
epigene3c
phenotypic
feature,
not
a
genotypic
feature.”
hQp://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~jgd1000/gene-cs.html

12. When
you
look
at
varia-on
in
how
we
behave
and
what
we
are
capable
of,
you
realize
that
our
poten-al
is
frequently
limited
by
our
culture.
In
many
cultures
in
Africa
most
people
become
fluent
in
several
languages,
in
England
it
is
an
excep-onal
ability
–
much
less
excep-onal
in
much
of
Europe.
So
to
improve
language
skills,
we
shouldn't
strive
to
iden-fy
children
with
excep-onal
language
ability
at
an
early
age,
but
look
at
what
we
are
doing
that
inhibits
language
ability.
The
same
can
be
said
for
musical
ability
and
mathema-cal
ability.

13. Inequality
is
created,
maintained
and
defended
by
the
theory
that
different
people
are
of
greatly
different
worth;
that
their
children
have
hugely
varying
poten&als;
that
inequality
is
inevitable;
and
that
all
is
roughly
for
the
best
in
the
best
of
all
possible
worlds
–
we
should
not
expect
greater
equality
to
be
possible
–
just
a
liQle
fairer,
sor-ng
out
by
merit.
Those
who
think
gene-c
influences
are
very
important
know
that
geography
maQers
too.
But,
if
you
are
interested
in
debunking
myths
see
Figure
2
of
this
paper
to
see
how
liQle
they
really
do
know
(they
are
not
mapping
what
they
think
they
map):
“Visual
analysis
of
geocoded
twin
data
puts
nature
and
nurture
on
the
map:
Molecular
Psychiatry
(2012)
17,
867
–
874.

14. Does
this
map
have
much
to
do
with
‘ADHD’
at
all,
as
implied
by
the
highlight-­‐
ed
text,
or
is
it
showing
some-­‐
thing
else?

15. Look
at
the
equa-on
in
the
paper,
and
then
at
a
map
of
what
geographers
(ironically)
call
popula3on
poten3al.

16. There
is
currently
a
huge
gulf
between
cartoonists
taking
their
readers
on
a
tour
of
the
current
extremes
of
economic,
social
and
educa-onal
inequali-es;
and
researchers
trying
to
measure
inherent
poten-al
in
case
some
level
playing
field
were
ever
established
and
in
case
we
are
ever
locked
in
individual
boxes
in
future
and
can’t
cooperate
(the
Matrix
Movie
nightmare)
–
in
reality,
rather
than
in
The
Matrix,
you
are
truly
more
clever
together…

17. Sparking
debate
about
income
gaps,
the
damage
they
do,
and
how
to
narrow
them
IS
NZ
FAIR
COMPETITION?:
MANUREWA
INTERMEDIATE
SCHOOL
ENTRY
It
doesn’t
take
a
great
deal
of
imagina-on
to
beQer
see
what
maQers,
but
a
Cyril
Burt
inspired
educa-on
is
not
keen
on
imagina-on:
See:
h"p://www.inequality.org.nz/

18. Children
aged
15/16
1993-­‐99
by
school
type
&
GCSEs
Charts
are
drawn
in
propor-on
to
total
numbers
of
children
aQending
each
type
of
school
and
shaded
by
the
shares
awarded
par-cular
grades
-­‐
Data
source:
Analysis
of
na-onal
school
league
tables
for
Britain
1993-­‐00
Figure
3.5
Educa-on…the
sor-ng
out
of
children
(form
the
book
‘The
Popula-on
of
the
UK’)
Selec-ve
schools
tell
their
pupils
that
they
are
more
clever
than
other
children.
The
children
have
no
way
of
knowing,
so
believe
it.
They
are
trained
in
exam
passing
(a
useless
skill
in
later
life),
which
is
said
to
prove
their
extra
cleverness.

19. A
great
deal
of
the
differences
between
people
is
due
to
how
they
are
treated.
When
people
treat
you
as
dumb,
you
feel
dumb,
you
act
dumb.
When
they
smile
at
you
as
they
serve
you
it
is
easy
to
begin
to
feel
superior.
There
is
a
quote
from
Pygmalion
(which
became
My
Fair
Lady):
“the
difference
between
a
lady
and
a
flower
girl
is
not
how
she
behaves,
but
how
she's
treated.”
The
'Pygmalion
effect'
is
an
example
of
a
self-­‐fulfilling
prophecy,
as
happens
with
selec-ve
educa-on.
This
involves
spending
much
more
money
on
the
supposedly
more
poten-ally
clever.
It
turned
out
that
the
sor3ng
hat
lies…
There's
nothing
hidden
in
your
head
The
Sor3ng
Hat
can't
see,
So
try
me
on
and
I
will
tell
you
Where
you
ought
to
be.

20. “the
difference
between
a
lady
and
a
flower
girl
is
not
how
she
behaves,
but
how
she's
treated.”
(George
Bernard
Shaw,
16th
Nov.
1913)…
“Children
from
poorer
families
perceived
by
teachers
as
less
able,
says
study”
The
Guardian,
June
9th
2015
There
is
also
‘a
“voluminous”
literature
regarding
differences
in
experiences
between
sexes’
in
how
people
are
treated
and
react.
Sadly
it
is
not
know
by
those
who
write
papers
3tled
(see
p.600):
“Demonstra3ng
the
Validity
of
Twin
Research
in
Criminology”,
Criminology,
52,
4,
588-­‐626,
2015,
doi:
10.1111/1745-­‐9125.12049
…these
studies
are
‘silly’
(not
valid).
By
‘silly’
I
mean
‘fraught
with
problems
‘….

21. Children
are
labelled
in
ways
that
cause
terrible
damage
both
at
the
top
and
boQom
of
many
socie-es
25%‘effective’
(down 1%)
20%‘barely adequate’
(down 1%)
28%‘simple’
(up 1%)
3%‘none’ (up 1%)
11%‘developed’
(unchanged)
2%‘advanced’ (unchanged)
11%‘limited’
(unchanged)
Notes: ‘None’implies none as can be measured.‘Limited’implies possessing very limited
Figure 1: Children in the Netherlands ranked by ability (%) according to
the OECD, 2012 (showing changes since 2006)
Children
are
damaged
by
-red
stressed
carers,
by
family
rela-onship
breakdowns
and
s-ll
some-mes
by
illness,
accident
or
tragedy.
They
can
be
disadvantaged
by
the
month
in
which
they
are
born,
where
there
is
a
school
system
which
is
compe--ve
at
an
age
when
a
few
months
difference
can
be
significant.
A
compe--ve
school
system
is
very
destruc-ve.
Repeatedly
judging
some
children
as
failures
is
highly
damaging.

22. Very
difficult 6%
Difficult to
manage 15%
Coping 48%
Living
comfortably
31%
Source: Derived from ONS (2006) Social Trends (No 36), London: Palgrave Macmillan, table
5.15, p 78, mean of 1984, 1994 and 2004 surveys.
Note: Respondents were asked‘Which of the (above) phrases comes closest to your feelings
about your household’s income these days?’. Excludes those who did not answer.
Figure 11: Households’ability to get by on their income in
Britain, two decades before the crash, 1984–2004
The
different
likelihoods
of
being
able
to
achieve
different
things
depends
on
where
you
live,
which
country,
which
town
and
which
part
of
that
town.
This
is
something
that
we
can
map
and
the
maps
show
drama-c
differences.
There
are
also
drama-c
differences
depending
on
whether
children
are
being
brought
up
in
households
that
describe
themselves
as
'living
comfortably',
just
'coping',
'difficult
to
manage'
or
'very
difficult
to
manage’.
What
sort
of
upbringing
can
you
give
children
if
you
are
that
stressed?
How
many
rows
and
tensions
occur
just
over
money?
What
psychological
damage
does
that
do
to
children?

23. Income
Standard of
living
High
High
Standard of living
threshold
Income
threshold
Asset wealthyAsset wealthyAsset wealthy
Not poor
Rising
Vulnerable
Poor
Core
poor
Exclusively wealthy
Low
Low
Not poor
Poor
Vulnerable
Rising
KEY
Source: Adapted from David Gordon’s original and much replicated drawing. See
publication details of various of the works (where earlier versions appear) at the Townsend
Centre for International Poverty Research, University of Bristol (www.bris.ac.uk/poverty/).
Note: It is because a change in income usually precedes changes in standard of living, that
we tend to spiral anti-cockwise within this figure, sometimes just in small eddies.
Figure 8: Circling from exclusion to inclusion and back again
(model)
When
you
ask
people
who
have
achieved
what
they
aQribute
their
success
to;
those
that
are
not
so
conceited
as
to
say
“it
must
be
my
genes”,
o[en
men-on
chance
events
they
could
not
have
planned.

24. Studies of depression in adolescent girls in North America, 1984–2010 (see table 7,
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Re-analysis of Costello, E.J. et al (2006)‘Is there an epidemic of child or adolescent
depression?’, Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, vol 47, no 12, pp 1263-71. The data
shown above are for those studies where the children lived in the USA, the US territory of
Puerto Rico, or Canada. The final study was published in 2012 by Substance Abuse and
Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) and based on combined data from the
2008 to 2010 SAMHSA National Survey on Drug Use and Health.
Note: Each circle
represents a
study; the area
of the circle is
drawn in
proportion to
study size. An
additional very
recent study has
been added to
the figure which
was not included
in the first
edition of this
book.
Figure 21: Adolescent girls assessed as depressed (%) as
reported in various studies in North America, 1984–2010
Achievement
and
failure
have
liQle
to
do
with
innate
poten-al,
but
far
more
to
do
with
circumstance,
which
is
why
it
is,
to
a
certain
extent,
predictable.
Given
this
and
that,
the
likelihood
is
so
and
so.
But
also
there
are
the
unpredictable
events.
The
teacher
that
you
happened
to
like,
even
if
many
children
didn't.

25. Bell
curves
are
fabricated
Label
'None'
'Limited'
'Barely adequate'
'Simple'
1.0 0.9 1.1 -2.1
-0.6 -0.2 0.1 -2.1
-0.6 -1.4 1.2
1.7-0.2 0.7 1.8
-0.1
Nether-
landsOECD UK USA
0.0
2.0
3.0
-1.0
1.0
-2.0
% change 2006–2012 (note, scale = 2x above)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
OECD Nether-
lands
UK USA
‘None’
‘Limited’
‘Barely
adequate’
‘Simple’
‘Effective’
‘Developed’
‘Advanced’
2012
Source: Data originally given in OECD (2007) The Programme for International Student
Assessment (PISA), OECD’s latest PISA study of learning skills among 15-year-olds, Paris: OECD,
derived from figures in table 1, p20. Updated using
http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2014/2014024_tables.pdf (see Figure 1 notes)
Figure 2: Distribution of children by ability, according to the
OECD, 2012 (%)
There
is
no
point
in
searching
for
supposedly
brilliant
children.
Any
group
on
which
you
spend
more
-me,
money
and
effort
is
likely
to
do
beQer.
Look
first
at
poverty
and
depriva-on
and
try
to
reduce
inequality.
Look
next
at
educa-on
and
study
what
happens
in
other
countries
where
they
achieve
beQer
results.
Should
we
start
formal
educa-on
later
and
have
less
tes-ng,
fewer
exams
and
less
selec-on?
A
much
higher
propor-on
get
into
university
now
than
ever
got
into
grammar
schools
with
the
eleven
plus
exam.
People
are
rarely
handed
great
innate
ability.

26. Rate of prescribing antidepressants by NHS Board: Defined Daily Doses per 1,000
population (aged 15+), Scotland, 1992–2014:
92-
93
94-
95
96-
97
98-
99
00-
01
02-
03
04-
05
06-
07
08-
09
10-
11
12-
13
13-
14
Scotland 19 26 37 48 62 76 84 88 97 112 123 130
Ayrshire & Arran 19 26 37 51 65 81 90 95 107 123 136 145
Borders 20 26 35 43 54 68 78 84 93 110 123 132
Dum. & Galloway 21 27 39 48 64 78 83 85 92 105 118 125
Fife 21 26 36 47 60 74 80 84 93 109 121 129
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
92-93
93-94
94-95
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
Source: NHS Quality Improvement Scotland (2007) NHS quality improvement Scotland:
Clinical indicators 2007, Glasgow: NHS Quality Improvement Scotland, Table 1.1, p. 12.
Updated using: ISD Scotland (2015) Better Information, Better Decisions, Better Health: Data
Tables, NHS Scotland (http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Prescribing-and-
medicines/Publications/data-tables.asp?id=1309#1309)
Note: The NHS uses financial years when reporting on
prescribing rates. The measure shown is what is called
standardised defined daily doses (the commonest
amount prescribed in mg/day for each
anti-depressant drug) per 1,000 people
aged 15+. In the first edition of this
book the latest data available
was for 2005–6.
Figure 25: The rate of prescribing anti-depressants by the NHS
in Scotland, 1992–2014.People
are
becoming
more
and
more
anxious
over
-me,
especially
in
the
most
unequal
of
countries
where
they
are
most
o[en
judged.

27. Selected measures of inequality and healthy behaviour – all countries for which
data exists on all measures, latest comparable data:
Proportionofthepopulationwhocycleorwalk
toworkastheirmainformoftransport
0%
20%
40%
60%
10%
30%
50%
0 5 10 15
Inequality: Income share of the best-off one percent of the
population (% all income taken by this group)
20 25
Netherlands
Denmark
Sweden
Finland
Germany
Norway
France
UK
Japan
Canada
IrelandAustralia
US
Source: Paris Top income dataset figures as accessed in January 2015, cycling and walking for
Japan http://www.tokyobybike.com/2013/10/how-many-japanese-cycle-to-work.html
Note: The figures for Japan are only
for workers, not students, and are low
because the train is the main means
of transport for so many in Japan.
Area proportional to population.
Figure 26: Healthy behaviour and income inequality, walking
and cycling 2006-2010, affluent countries.
New
possibili-es
emerge
when
and
where
people
work
together
and
control
the
richest
in
their
socie-es
so
that
the
rich
take
a
smaller
share
of
the
cake.
One
possibility
is
not
having
a
car-­‐
bound
culture.
That
is
collec3ve
cleverness.
How
did
the
Dutch
manage
it
if
they
are
really
as
portrayed
by
the
“IQ”
tests?

28. Poten-al
is
about
Poli-cs
“The
idea
that
poverty
is
passed
down
from
genera-on
to
genera-on
in
our
genes
is
the
last
refuge
of
scoundrels.
For
a
conserva-ve
elite,
it
is
clearly
convenient
to
claim
that
welfare
and
educa-on
spending
make
no
difference
because
poor
people
are
intrinsically
feckless.
It
also
allows
them
to
imagine
their
own
wealth
and
status
is
part
of
the
natural
order.
No
wonder,
then,
that
Michael
Gove
and
his
adviser
Dominic
Cummings
began
cour-ng
the
gene-c
determinists.”
See
more
at
“No
genes
for
literacy
Posted
on
February
28,
2015
by
reclaimschools
hQp://reclaimingschools.org/2015/02/28/no-­‐genes-­‐for-­‐literacy/

29. Let’s
end
with
Toby
Morris
again.
Here
we
see
Toby
reaching
the
boQom
of
his
‘tower
of
inequality’,
published
worldwide
in
April
2015.
Toby
wants
to
know
what
to
do:
hQp://thewireless.co.nz/ar-cles/the-­‐pencilsword-­‐inequality-­‐tower
Here
is
what
not
to
do:
“Policymakers
and
educators
don’t
need
gene-cs
to
help
them
make
a
beQer
environment
for
all
our
children.
What
is
lacking
is
the
poli-cal
will.”
Steven
Rose,
TES,
24/1/,2014
hQps://www.tes.co.uk/ar-cle.aspx?storyCode=6395645
The
word
‘genes’
features
26
&mes
in
The
Second
edi&on
of
‘Injus&ce’

30. Much
more
can
be
achieved
by
co-­‐opera-on
than
by
compe--on.
We
all
have
skills
and
abili-es,
and
just
being
cheerful,
pleasant
and
kind
are
some
of
the
most
valuable
abili-es
of
all.
We
all
need
to
help
each
other
–
because
none
of
us
are
that
special.
And
we
can
so
easily
get
things
so
very
wrong
due
to
the
fact
that
we
do
not
vary
greatly
in
ability
(poten-al
or
realized)…
and
we
can
also
get
things
right
by
repeatedly
asking
for
help.
Thank
you
for
your
pa-ence
(and
help!)
The
End