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C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward
1. C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline
Report & Suggestions for
Moving Forward
Alexander Ochs
CSEV IV, Georgetown/Barbados,13-14 Nov 2014
2. Worldwatch in the Caribbean
Dominican Republic Wind and Solar Roadmap
EEP, 2012
Sustainable Energy Roadmaps in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica
ICI of the German Government, 2013 & 2014
10 Islands Profiles & Regional Matrix
Carbon War Room, 2014
Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Lucia Water and Energy Regulation Studies
& Synthesis Report of Lessons Learned
ADB, 2014
Study on the Development of the Renewable Energy Market in Latin America
& the Caribbean
IDB, 2014
C-SERMS Phase I Baseline Report
CARICOM & IDB, 2013 (first draft); REETA/GIZ update 2014
Collaborating with many additional stakeholders in the region
3. Technical
Assessment
âą Energy Efficiency
Potential
âą Renewable Energy
Potential
âą Grid Solutions
Business
Investigation
âą Financing Gap
Analysis
âą Domestic Reform &
Capacity Building
âą International Support &
Cooperation
Socio-Economic
Analysis
âą Levelized Cost of Energy +
(LCOE+)
âą Energy Scenarios
âą Macroeconomic
Effects
Sustainable Energy Roadmaps
Policy
Recommendations
âą Vision & Long-Term Goals
âą Concrete Policy
Mechanisms
âą Governance &
Administrative Efficiency
4. The Need for Regional
Energy Cooperation in the
Caribbean
6. Opportunities of Regional Cooperation
Draw on a common vision and shared goals
Share best practices, experience, and expertise
Leverage combined economic resources and complementary renewable energy resources
Take advantage of cost-effective energy supply options by creating a regional energy market
Bundle projects to attract finance
Build regional supply chains
11. CARICOM Renewable Energy Potential
Key:
Extremely
High
(>100%)
Very High
(50-100%)
High
(20-50%)
Medium
(0-20%)
None/
Low
Unknown
Hydro Wind
Geo-thermal
Solar
Biomass/
Other
Antigua and Barbuda
The Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Dominica
Grenada
Guyana
Haiti
Jamaica
Montserrat
St. Kitts and Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
13. Selected potential game
changers in the Caribbean
Future Sustainable Energy
System in the Caribbean
Expanded use of
distributed renewables
Increased deployment of
mainstream renewable
energy technologies
Geothermal energy
development
Improved energy
efficiency
Regional electricity
interconnection
Eventual use of nascent
renewable energy
technologies
15. CARICOM Regional Targets
Documented
Renewable
Resource
Potential Across
All Member States
Projected
Regional Power
Capacity Needs
to 2030
Regional
Targets for
Renewable
Electricity
Capacity Share
2017: 20%
2022: 28%
2027: 47%
16. RE & CO2 Targets
Horizon
Target
Year
CARICOM Sustainable
Energy Targets adopted by
CARICOM member states
CARICOM Emissions
Reduction Targets
(CO2 emissions reductions
in the power sector against
BAU)
Short Term
(5 years)
2017 20% 18%
Medium Term
(10 years)
2022 28% 32%
Long Term
(15 years)
2027 47% 46%
18. Documented
Renewable
Resource
Potential Across
All Member States
Projected
Regional Power
Capacity Needs
to 2030
Regional
Targets for
Renewable
Electricity
Capacity Share
2017: 20%
2022: 28%
2027: 47%
Natlâ Resource
Assessments
RE Baseload
Potential
Existing National
Targets
Targets
for
Specific
Member
States
Suggesting National Targets
Viable Additions
of Intermittent
Resources
19. Suggested National Targets
Country
Estimated National Renewable Share of Installed
Capacity to Meet Regional Target of 48% by 2027
Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Generation in
2027
(based on installed capacity target)
Antigua and Barbuda 61% 62%
The Bahamas 55% 51%
Barbados 67% 55%
Belize 76% 85%
Dominica 56% 100%
Grenada 70% 100%
Guyana 84% 90%
Haiti 46% 52%
Jamaica 58% 40%
Montserrat 34% 100%
St. Kitts and Nevis St. Kitts: 57%; Nevis: 67% St Kitts: 100%; Nevis: 100%
St. Lucia 69% 100%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 59% 81%
Suriname 52% 60%
Trinidad and Tobago 52%
29%
23. Components of successful
sustainable energy promotion
Long-term vision
Concrete
policies and
mechanisms
Successful
Promotion of
Sustainable
Energy
Effective
governance
structures and
administrative
processes
25. Institutional and governance
challenges in CARICOM
Overlapping/opposing mandates and priorities among various government agencies and institutions
Few CARICOM member states have significant capacity dedicated exclusively to energy issues
Resource constraints (human capacity, small budgets, limited staff, diverse responsibilities)
In some member states, continuing dominance of single utility monopolies in the electricity sector
27. Existing Data Gaps
Electricity System/Infrastructure
âą Thorough analysis of electricity end users
âą Detailed data on fuel import costs
âą Assessment of grid functionality and storage potential
âą Detailed data on power plants in operation
âą Updated power sector capacity plans
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
âą Renewable energyâs cost effectiveness not calculated, understood or
communicated
âą Unavailability of renewable energy assessments and technology
feasibility studies
âą Higher-resolution assessments for priority geographic locations not
conducted and/or communicated
âą Resource complementarity in integrated energy planning not
conducted and/or communicated
âą Energy audits not conducted and/or communicated
28. Existing Data Gaps
Transportation
âą Coordinated data collection and analysis of transportation
âą Updated sector plans and strategies
CO2 Emissions
âą Updated greenhouse gas inventories
âą Sectoral emissions data
âą Updated emissions reduction plans and strategies
Policy and Administration
âą National-level assessments of institutional/governance effectiveness
âą National-level assessment of policy effectiveness and efficiency
37. Thank you!
Alexander Ochs
Director of Climate and Energy
aochs@worldwatch.org
+1 202 745 8092 x511
Notas do Editor
Hereâs what made us famous, Why we were invited by CARICOM, IDB, the German Government, GIZ to help with this Regional Roadmap
Importance of INTEGRATED ANALYSIS
Many people these days say, we do not need more studies, we need action; I work for a non-fo-profit b/c I am also driven by creating a better place through action; but what is guiding this action? but information in these individual areas often still does not exist, and if it does, it is piecemeal
Intelligent policy-making has accurate and reliable information at hand, it integrates them to find the best pathway forward
Didnât have the same level of ambition in C-SERMS 1 â b/c there wasnât the time & resources to do that â rather a baseline report suggesting priorities for moving forward and identifying gaps, rather than filling them already
few CARICOM member states have any significant fossil fuel resources of their own,
ï reliance on fuel imports (mostly peroleum products for both electricity generation and transportation) is extremely high
big exception is Trinidad and Tobago, where energy production is a major cornerstone of the economy.
Reliance on fossil fuels contributes to high electricity tariffs as well as a number of local environmental challenges such as pollution as well as contributing to climate change
Although many CARICOM member states have high rates of electricity access, expanding electricity access remains a priority
in several countries including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and
particularly Haiti, where only 25 percent of the population has access to power.
Given the overall size of Haitiâs population (nearly 10 million people), only approximately half of CARICOMâs nearly 17 million people have electricity access.
Here is an overview of the challenges that CARICOM nations have in common
So here is the approach we took, in a relatively short time frame
Enormous expected Growth of Energy Demand â in most places the demand for energy at least doubles in the next 15 years
ï Business as usual ï Shows the importance of energy savings and energy efficiency
Tremendous potential exists in many countries to meet most or all of current demand with renewables.
Want to make sure that this table does not send the wrong message. What is For this table technology potential is measured in respect to its measured share of peak demand in each member state
There are many assessment gaps that still exist which must be filled in order to facilitate project development
Geothermal: particularly the islands making up the volcanic arc of the Lesser Antilles, have significant untapped geothermal resources. Development of this resource in member states such as Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines could dramatically alter the energy balance of these islands and the region as a whole if regional grid interconnections are developed. Currently, no CARICOM state has developed geothermal power, although exploratory drilling and preliminary investigations are under way in several places.
Hydropower: Large hydropower comprises the majority of renewable power generation within CARICOM. Development of large-scale hydropower facilities such as the 165 MW Amalia Falls project in Guyana stands to play a significant role in the changing energy mix. Like geothermal, hydropower presents opportunities to broaden and interconnect regional energy markets, particularly in mainland member states like Guyana and Suriname. Small hydro plants, typically classified as generating less than 10 MW of electricity, have significant ecological and often human rights advantages, but development feasibility (especially for run-of-the-river systems) requires specific site characteristics that preclude its use in several small-island CARICOM member states. Elsewhere, the potential for small, sustainable hydro deployment is enormous, particularly for providing electricity access to remote, currently underserviced populations, e.g., in the mainland countries as well as Haiti.
Modern biomass (including bagasse and biogas): Belize is a regional leader in the use of bioenergy as a baseload energy source. Many CARICOM member states, particularly those on the mainland and the larger island states, have good biomass potential. Waste-to-energy technologies have drawn some attention throughout the region, although their viability is restricted in those states with limited waste collection capacity or comparatively small populations, as these do not generate the volumes of waste necessary to make waste-to-energy plants economically viable. In Haiti, the identified potential for waste-to-energy technologies has so far been constrained by infrastructural challenges and a lack of waste collection capacity.
Solar: All CARICOM member states possess strong solar energy potential and opportunities to use various solar technologies for power generation, heating, and coolingâmaking solar technology a crucial, but yet mostly unused, regional sustainable energy solution. The high component costs that have traditionally plagued solar technologies have declined significantly, with solar PV module costs falling nearly 50 percent in 2011 alone, making solar cost-competitive with fossil fuels under certain conditions. Several CARICOM states have already demonstrated enormous success using solar water heating (with Barbados being a global leader in this technology) and solar photovoltaic (PV) energy.
Wind: There is also strong regional potential for wind power development. Many experts consider wind the most viable renewable energy technology for rapid expansion in the region over the next two decades. Currently, however, few CARICOM member states have developed utility-scale wind infrastructure, aside from Jamaica, which now has over 40 MW of installed wind capacity, and St. Kitts and Nevis, which has 2 MW installed.
Ocean energy: Energy technologies including wave and tidal and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technologies have been identified as a priority area under the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) Sustainable Energy Initiative (SIDS DOCK), as they offer significant potential throughout the region, presenting opportunities including power generation and the use of deep-sea cooling in the tourism sector. As of May 2012, marine energy technologies remain in the development phase, however, and they still have prohibitively high costs that limit their deployment in the short-term. CARICOM member states are currently taking steps to advance pilot projects for OTEC, although the technologiesâ long-term potential in the region is restricted by factors including uncertain technology development and project scale.
Based on global average generation costs many RE technologies are already cost competitive based on the high electricity rates currently found in CARICOM member states
Note: Figure depicts the global range of generation costs for a number of renewable energy technologies, places them within the range of CARICOM electricity tariffs (4.5â38.2 U.S. cents/kWh, and provides example tariffs in select countries with strong potential for that particular resource.
reliance on fossil fuels (mainly residual and distillate fuel oils as a result of the widespread use of diesel generators).
few CARICOM member states have any significant fossil fuel resources, regional reliance on fuel imports is extremely high
one big exception is Trinidad and Tobago, where energy production is a major cornerstone of the economy.
Reliance on fossil fuels contributes to high electricity tariffs as well as a number of local environmental challenges such as pollution as well as contributing to climate change
Although most CARICOM member states have high rates of electricity access, expanding electricity access remains a priority
in several countries including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and
particularly Haiti, where only 25 percent of the population has access to power. Given the overall size of Haitiâs population (nearly 10 million people), only approximately half of CARICOMâs nearly 17 million people have electricity access.
Energy Efficiency
As for energy efficiency â our limited information suggests that it is possible to reduce energy intensity by 33%
Achieving these regional goals will require targeted actions at the national level supported by regional collaboration.
Many policies have been enacted, however many gaps still exist in the policy frameworks of CARICOM member states
While these policies have been identified an assessment of policy effectiveness is needed to ensure each is having the intended impact
SUGGGESTED MEANS SUGGESTED BY GOVâT DOCUMENTS â NOT SUGGESTED BY US â WE WOULD OF COURSE SUGGEST THAT ALL OF THIS US IS GREEN
Several critical data and information gaps exist in the Caribbean. While information for CARICOM member states is most readily available in the electricity sector, detailed energy data in this and other sectorsâparticularly transportationâis severely lacking. This impedes analysis and strategic planning. While some degree of clarity can be obtained with respect to energy production and consumption as well as specific fuel usage across the region, current data limitations make it extremely challenging to assess energy end-use in CARICOM. Without this information, an accurate breakdown of sectoral energy use cannot be developed. Additionally, assessing the economic effects of the regionâs energy system is hindered by lack of available data on value and volume of fossil fuel imports
To fully understand the future role RE and EE can play in the region more detailed technical assessment must be conducted and communicated. Understanding the potential for energy efficiency is crucial because of its compounding effects: when a user demands one less unit of energy because of efficiency measures, the system typically saves much more than one unit of produced energy because of avoided losses during generation, transmission, and distribution. Especially in countries like Haiti, where technical and non-technical losses are relatively high, end-user efficiency savings can translate into much greater savings in generation. Even in areas where the necessary RE and EE assessments have been completed, the results are often not communicated and the assessments themselves are unavailable
Thorough analysis of electricity end-users
Data often not collected or reported
Detailed data on fuel import costs
Data lacking on economic impact of current energy matrix
Assessment of grid functionality and storage potentials
Information lacking on the extent to which existing electricity networks must be updated
Detailed data on power plants in operation
Readily available information lacking on the current status and operation of existing plants
Updated power sector capacity plans
Available information often out of date; existing plans may change without public notification
Coordinated data collection and analysis of transportation
Data often disorganized or uncollected
Updated sector plans and strategies
Available information often out of date
Lack of widespread calculation, understanding, and communication of renewable energyâs cost effectiveness
(continuing perception of renewable energy as prohibitively expensive)
Unavailability of renewable energy assessments and technology feasibility studies
(data often not disseminated for project development)
Higher-resolution assessments for priority geographic locations not conducted and/or communicated
(in member states without existing detailed resource assessments, research should focus on priority areas near greatest potential and demand)
Analysis of opportunities for resource complementarity in integrated energy planning not conducted and/or communicated
(individual assessments usually assess one renewable resource in isolation, missing critical opportunities for complementarity)
Energy audits not conducted and/or communicated
(limited data on the energy efficiency of sectors, businesses, etc.)
Coordinated data collection and analysis of transportation
Data often disorganized or uncollected
Updated sector plans and strategies
Available information often out of date
Updated emissions reduction plans and strategies
Available information often out of date
Updated greenhouse gas inventories
Information provided to UNFCCC often out of date
Sectoral emissions data
Collected data lacking specificity required for effective policy design
While policy and administration mechanisms have been identified in C-SERMS I a more thorough understanding of both policy and administrative effectiveness will be necessary to encourage growth in the sector.
Focus on filling information gaps, including coordinating data collection processes and commissioning the missing technical assessments for RE and EE.
Making publically available and successfully communicating the results of existing information within the region, a step which is often overlooked, will have a significant impact on building support for RE projects
Focus on filling information gaps, including coordinating data collection processes and commissioning the missing technical assessments for RE and EE.
Making publically available and successfully communicating the results of existing information within the region, a step which is often overlooked, will have a significant impact on building support for RE projects
Focus on filling information gaps, including coordinating data collection processes and commissioning the missing technical assessments for RE and EE.
Making publically available and successfully communicating the results of existing information within the region, a step which is often overlooked, will have a significant impact on building support for RE projects