What has caused the return of the water hazard is unknwon- What is special is that unlikely events can create catastrophic losses and vulnerabilities with the poor segment of the communities. Issue is to differentiate direct causes and indirect causes of risk. So, one can focus on the real causes in order to prevent negative impacts of the risks, when it wil return a next time. In absence of data or statistical records, it is hardship to predict when the flood in mountain will be back. So, best is to prepare new options and scenario based on modelings. I has been said, it was God event and also people or the engieering works, urbanisms, pilgrims, aged techonologies. all these searches for risks sources are confudig with the risk impacts (direct or secundary). The real concern, according to me is people. Uttarakhand was a disaster made by men. Some, experts started to see the truth and root causes of the disaster- I believe, before the next occurence, they will take the opportunity to re-organize Uttarakhand urbanism and geography according to the numbers and sizes of the villages and municiplaities in relations with these debris and sediments zones aswell as carbages in link to the river channels and flows, so that when there is monsoon or heavy rais i Himalaya, river can expend in the river beds in the valley, which is quite a normal weahter phenomenum, but mainly if there is a municipality service to control the waste and the waste management services, to prevent waste and carbages accumulation, which could create artificial water reservoirs mountains. If no water drainage of the reservoirs is not made, the risk is like dam rupture, under the water elevation, the water pressures and tenses on the debris, garbages, sediments that are components of the reservoirs walls will reached a dangerous limit before the reservoir rupture. Then Uttarhakand gentle river flow can become a real monster.

1. MODELING THE UTTAKAHRAND FLOOD-
TUSNAMI IN HIMALAYA MOUNTAIN-DISASTER IN UTTHARAKHAND
Mountain lake
reservoir modeling
Georges Radjou CEO MBA DUPEBH
Georges.radjou@yahoo.com
(Business Innovation Research Development - BIRD)

2. Risk concept
Source(s)
Issue
(s)
Impact (s)

3. AS I HAVE ASSUMED WITH THE TEAM
(UNESCO, INDIAN EXPERTS AND EMMA
-EXPERT IN PREDICTIVE MODELING- THE
ROOT CAUSES (SOURCES OF RISKS) OF
THE DISASTER IS TEMPORARY WATER
ACCUMALATION IN ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIR
FOLLOWED BY
THE RESERVOIR WALL RUPTURES HAVE
IMPACTED (PRIMARILY AND SECUNDARY
IMPACTS) ON THE COMMUNITY LIFE,
LIVELIHOODS AND PROPERTIES, AS WELL
AS THE WELL-BEING ;
THE RESERVOIR RUPTURES (WHICH WAS THE RISK ISSUE) WHEN
THE RESERVOIR MATERIALS (RESERVOIR WATER + SEDIMENTS +
RESERVOIR WALLS (THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES OR DEBRIS AND
SEDIMENTS...) ? SOIL SURFACES AND SUB-SOIL I.E SOIL
UNDERGROUND AND THE SHALLOW LAYERD OF AQUIFERS).
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
BIRD CEO
Source ; author

4. I think the most appropriate and adapted technology model to mimic / reproduce/model
wiith the assumptions recoded on the Flood tsunami experience from conversation and
narrative with / of risk masters (UNESCO hydrology experts, Emma hydraulic prediction
expert, India experts on the tsunamin disaster) and the information given by the media
the Himalaya water, is according to me, and the nature and the scale of reservoir lake in
mountain ruptures that created that let to the disaster without possibilities for rescuers to
save lives, assets, livlihoods and propertie IT IS A WASTE WATER PUMPING MACHINE
Water out
Water in
SOURCE OF
RISKS
Water
reservoir
accumulate
d in the
Himalaya
Mts
TEMPORARY LAKES WITH HEAVY RAINS, THE MOUNTAIN MATERIALS COMPOSING
THE RESERVOIR REACHED A CRITICAL RUPTURE POINT AND THE CAUSES OF
LANDSLIDES AND THE TSUNAMI IN MOUNTAINS THAT FLOW IN THE VALLEYS
Fig. 1: PROJECT GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE
AND BUSINESS MODEL
BUSINESS MODEL
ANALOGY TO A
WASTE WATER
PUMP MACHINE
MANUAL
HAND
Pump Body
Waste water
pumped in
storage
Business case
Modeling
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
BIRD CEO
Source; author

5. Q -water flows
(M³ /second)
Surface water
reservoir
Bottom
H
Without sediment and debris
the water is clean, then the
pump can treat a higher
volume of water (H)
Water out
Pump performance (W) linked
to H → W = W(H)
Fig 1a : Uncertainty on Knowledge of the nature of soil structures,
and sediments accumulatioon could create a landslide
The waste water pump modeling is interesting, because if the stakeholder knew
that temporary lakes during the monsoon could create a flood in mountains,
they could have prevented it by using pumps to drain the water formation (H) in
the artificial lakes, so that the reservoir materials can resist to the water tenses
on the reservoir wallls (soil and mountain slopes)-reservoir bottom.
Solution to people displacment waspumping water or preventing the water
accumulation by avoiding water stock reaching a critical levels (H), also the
pump performance limit.
With sediment the pump performance is reduced as the (power of
the pump is concserve)- H- T = e
Excess of water, which is stagnant i.e. and if not drained is about
to reach a critical mass leading to tenses over the reservoir
materials and risk of ruptures, leading to a flood in the valley-
impacting on peoples securities and safeties
T
Fig. 1: Uncertainty on the role
of sediments- sediment volume
Influencing the water elevation
and the reservoir peak of
discharge or the reservoir
rupture, if no drainage action
is providing either by preventing
sediment accumulation or
maintaining the reservoir drainage
to avoid the criticals
With reservoir ruptures sources
Of flood in the valleys and tsunami
in mountains with landslides
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
Sediments
BIRD CEO
Source; author

6. What are the risks created by the sediments (in case of a
large land surface is covered -it is always more often the
case in flood plain in valleys are the slopes of the
mountains are sharper than on flat surfaces-
10%Flood
Good-
Flood
farming Houshold living area
h
Valley
slopes
Flat land slopes
(Modeling the Flood Plains)
Flood plain
maximal
10%
90%
90%
Flat land with
a small slope
Valley land
with a high
slope
Fig 3 : uncertainty on valley slopes
Flood division at WMO said, if a land is 10% covered with
sediment, it is good for flood farming
But, if over 40% of the country land surface is covered by
the flood waters during the inundation, it will be a disaster
In montain valleys slopes are rarely small, therefore
expect a minor flood for a flat land to be a giant flood or
tsunami
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
BIRD CEO
Source; author

7. END (part 1)
Georges RADJOU
BUSINESS INNOVATION
RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT
27 Ter Bld Saint Martin, 75 003
PARIS
Tel. 01 44 59 64 90

8. DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS
Model used is mimic tha valley (Peoples, Systems and
organizations)
The rivers
(water river basin
where the floods
occurrred)
Mainstreeam going to the lower
lewer part of the valley (water out)
Individual Vallay river drainage
Z
Total size of the valley
water basin where the
flood the monsoon
ePhysical
elements
Urbanism
Roads,
infrastrucutre
industrialization
Dry feet
zone
Zo > Z= e
Flow in
(Monsoon water
in from the rain)
Fig. 4: Uncertainty on Dry feet zones
i.e. urbanism, roads and
infrastructures, aged technologies,
Over population (Pligrims), pollutions
and lack of maintenance of the valley
and lack of land planning and
management, risk mapping...
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
Source; author
BIRD CEO
Sediments and the
reservoir are
creating temporary
water buffers

9. Fig. 5 : Recommendation
Stakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the
mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical
mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a
disaster resilience program.
NAME OF
CITY
SEDIMENT
MONITORI
NG
RESERVOIR
FILL START
DATE OF
RUPTURE
MAINTENANE
City X
City Y
City Z
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
Source; author
BIRD CEO

10. Fig. 5 : Recommendation
Stakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the
mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical
mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a
disaster resilience program.
NAME OF
CITY
SEDIMENT
MONITORI
NG
RESERVOIR
FILL START
DATE OF
RUPTURE
MAINTENANE
City X
City Y
City Z
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
Source; author
BIRD CEO