The Global Risk Landscape: Challenges of Extreme Events
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The Global Risk Landscape: Challenges of Extreme Events
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The Global Risk Landscape: Challenges of Extreme Events
- 1. The Global Risk Landscape: Challenges of Extreme Events Detlof von Winterfeldt Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Visiting Centennial Professor , London School of Economics 3 rd International Disaster and Risk Conference Global Risk Forum, Davos June 2, 2010
- 2. Source: IIASA Global Risk Trends
- 4. Extreme Events Become More Extreme
- 7. Extreme Tails of the Distribution Probability distribution without unexpected events Probability distribution with unexpected events
- 8. Katrina Overtopping vs. Levee Breach
- 9. Examples of Dynamic Ripple Effects Terrorism Economic Crisis ]
- 10. Indirect Economic Impacts of Disasters Source: CREATE, USC
- 12. What’s a Dirty Bomb?
- 13. Radiotherapy and Diagnostics Thousands of Curies (Cobalt 60, Cesium 137)
- 14. Industrial Irradiator Hundreds of Thousands of Curies (Cobalt 60, Cesium 137)
- 15. Spent Nuclear Fuel Millions of Curies (multiple radionuclides)
- 16. Sources Of Radioactive Materials
- 17. Hypothetical Radioactive Plume (Los Angeles)
- 23. What Kind of Research is Needed? Risk Assessment Dynamic Systems Analysis Behavioral Research Policy Analysis
- 24. Thank You More information about IIASA at: www.iiasa.ac.at
Notas do Editor
- over recent decades there has been an increase in both the frequency and severity of such disasters worldwide, with associated devastating loss of life and damage to property. Although progress had been made in reducing disaster related fatalities, over the last years there has been a trend towards increasing loss of life (see chart). The 2004 Asian tsunami, the earthquake in China’s Sichuan Provence and Cyclone Nargis in Burma, both in 2008, together accounted for almost half a million deaths, millions of people displaced, and direct damage costs of over US$ 100 billion. Despite extensive relief efforts and large donations from around the world, these impacts will be felt for years to come. In addition, the indirect, often hidden costs on people’s livelihoods, the environment, and the economy often exceeds the direct impacts. T h e s e t r e n d s , largel y dr i ven by socioeconomic factors today, are likely to continue also due to climate change. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report predicts that “some weather events and extremes will become more frequent, more widespread or more intense during the 21st century.” Of particular concern is that these impacts are expected to disproportionately affect poorer developing nations across Africa and Asia due to their low adaptive capacity and the costs associated with managing risks. IIASA work is currently helping countries better prepare for such natural disasters to reduce their impact.
- This picture shows the aftermath of an earthquake in Pakistan. Systemic risks, including risks to the worldwide economic systems and regional risks from natural disasters, international conflicts, and terrorism
- In general, a terrorist might consider pursuing a dirty bomb attack because: First, there are thousands of radioactive material sources in the U.S. and abroad – some are well protected, while others pose security concerns. In addition, there are many sources that have been lost, stolen or abandoned, both in the U.S. and internationally. Second, it is relatively easy to acquire radioactive material – whether you are buying certain quantities off the black market or stealing it from a local facility. Third, the building of a dirty bomb is recognized by experts as being a fairly simple process, requiring little more than the skills needed to assemble a conventional bomb. Fourth, the device has the potential for massive psychological and economic effects