1. Threats to Food Security and Food
Chain Livelihoods from Weeds, Pests
and Diseases
Dr Mike Bushell
Syngenta Global R&D

2. Demand growth from population growth and diet changes
Global population
bn
10
8
Developed
• 9bn people by 2050
6
– Rapid increase in
4
Emerging emerging countries
2
0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2030 2040 2050
World demand for major crops* • 2050 grain demand:
bn tonnes
4
+50%
+50%
3 Food – food grain +25%
2
1
Feed – meat consumption
0
+70%
1970 2000 2010 2030 2050
* Includes cereals, rice, corn and soybean
Source: FAO, Syngenta analysis
Classification: PUBLIC

3. Food Price risks
Stocks-to-use ratio* Crop price index**
% Jan 2002 = 100
• Crop price volatility
30% 400
• Government intervention
25% 300
• Ongoing demand growth:
emerging markets
20% 200
• Challenging
supply/demand balance
15% 100
• Energy costs remain high
and volatile
10% -
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
11/12E
* Ratio for combined corn, soybean, wheat and rice
Source: WASDE October 2011 for STU, Bloomberg for prices, Syngenta analysis
Classification: PUBLIC

4. How have we met the increased food demand since 1950’s?
Mechanisation including irrigation
Modern fertilizers Better seed varieties
Crop protection
chemicals
Classification: PUBLIC

5. The role of crop protection
40% of the world’s
food would not exist
without crop protection
products
•Delivering genetic
potential
•Protecting Yield
•Increasing Yield
Quality
Classification: PUBLIC

6. CP contribution to crop yields and remaining potential
100
90
28.2 31.2 26.3 28.8
% theoretical maximum
80 37.4 40.3
70
60 21.6
33.7
50 37.3
39.6 53.2 34.6
40
30
50.2
20 40
31.5
10 23 25.1
18
0
Rice Wheat Maize Soybean Cotton Potato
Yield with no CP Extra yield from CP Remaining potential
1 Classification: PUBLIC
Source: Crop Losses to Pests; E-C Oerke, Journal of Agricultural Science (2006), 144, 31-43

7. Disease, Insect, Weed Control Research Targets
Non-selective
Corn selective
Cereals selective
Soya Bean selective
Cereals Rice selective
Fruit &Veg
Field crops
Horticulture
Sucking pests
Nematodes
Soil pests
Lepidoptera
Classification: PUBLIC

8. Crop diseases can be devastating
Effects of Potato Late Blight (Phytophthora infestans) exemplifies
why agricultural fungal control is so important to global agriculture!
Classification: PUBLIC

9. Drivers for innovation : New disease issues
• New disease pandemics can occur
• Example : Soybean rust (Phakopsora
pachyrhizi)
– a billion $ opportunity in N & S America
that didn’t exist 10 years ago.
– a virulent strain from the Far East first
identified in 1902
– rapid defoliation and dramatic yield losses
(up to 80%).
• Rapid spread from Zimbabwe in 1998
to S. Africa, S. America and USA by
2004.
Fungicide treated vs. untreated
soya in Brazil
Classification: PUBLIC

10. Drivers for innovation: Resistance
• Resistance drives need for
product refreshment
– Can develop faster than R&D can
deliver new technologies
• Resistance management is a
major issue
• Different types of resistance
development and impact – so
monitoring is important
– Azoles – “creeping” tolerance
– Strobilurins – sudden and total
failure
• Example : Septoria tritici resistance to Strobilurin
fungicides in Europe….
Septoria tritici
Classification: PUBLIC

11. GM Plants with insect resistance
Corn borer resistant (Bt) maize Corn root worm resistant maize
Classification: PUBLIC

12. Key Pests of US Corn
Vip3A Cry1Ab
Pest Common Name
(Viptera) (CB)
Helicoverpa zea Corn Earworm . .
Spodoptera frugiperda Fall Armyworm . .
Agrotis ipsilon Black cutworm .
Striacosta albicosta Western bean cutworm .
Papaipema nebris Common stalk borer . .
Ostrinia nubilalis European corn borer .
Diatraea grandiosella Southwestern corn borer . .
Stacks offer outstanding control of all these pests
Classification: PUBLIC

13. Fungal mycotoxins: a growing problem
• Secondary metabolites, e.g. aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins,
deoxynivalenol (DON), patulin and zearalenone produced by
Aspergillus, Fusarium & Penicillium spp
• Aflatoxins are greatest risk to human and animal health
– Up to 25% of the world’s food crops significantly contaminated*
– Acute exposure can be fatal; chronic exposure causes serious
health problems
• Dietary exposure managed in developed countries
– Food Chain and Food Safety Agency monitoring and action
– Significant economic losses
• Kenya 2011**
– 30-60% maize samples tested had aflatoxin levels above the
action level
– Up to 163x safe concentration
* Source: WHO 1999
** Source: IFPRI
Classification: PUBLIC

14. Insect control reduces mycotoxin levels in corn
25'000 30
20'000
19 800 25 • Insecticide control of corn
borer infestation reduces
20
fumonisin levels
FUMO (ppb)
15'000
15 • Bt corn (GM) also reduces crop
10'000
10
losses through mycotoxin
contamination*
5'000 3 880
5
240
0 0
Check KARATE KARATE
G1 G1 and G2
% of ears attacked by corn borer
*Source: G Brookes, PG Economics June 2009
Classification: PUBLIC

15. Weeds are more than a nuisance!
• Weeds are the number 1
cause of yield loss
• With a good fertiliser regime
you can grow 12t/ha maize
– or 6t maize and a lot of
weeds
• Compete with the crop for
light, water and nutrients
• Costly to control manually
• Herbicide programmes need
to be safe to the crop while
controlling the key weeds
• Weedy rice is a particular
problem that can’t be solved
by chemicals
Classification: PUBLIC

16. Hainan China November 2008
Classification: PUBLIC

17. 10 t/ha yield integrated solution:
Chennai March 2011
Classification: PUBLIC

18. Safety all around
Food People
Protection of Operator safety
employees
Environment
Classification: PUBLIC

19. Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture
……a key concept from UK Foresight report
Ag Systems that deliver better outcomes Food Safety
• more crop yield from the same area of land
• reduced negative environmental impacts Food Security Issues
• using all inputs more efficiently – land, water,
Sustainable Consumption Issues
nutrients
Both agricultural
Microbial contamination
productivity AND better environmental outcomes
are pre-eminent under sustainable intensification Choking Hazard
Mycotoxin contamination
Growing More from Less
Chemical Hazards
Syngenta technology contributes to solutions
Classification: PUBLIC

20. Development of integrated solutions
Increasing level of integration and risk mitigation
Pest (IPM)
Crop (ICM)
Field / Farm
Landscape
Threshold Concepts
Beneficials Management
Programs
Traps, Pheromones
Altenative Solutions
Resistance Management
Residue Minimization Field Margins
Seed Care Pollinator Habitat
Product Stewardship Application Technology Refuge Management
Forecast Models Farm Stewardship Biodiversity Concepts
Alert Systems C / N Footprint Water Protection
Land Use Concepts
Classification: PUBLIC

21. ICM in Vegetables
• Andalucia (Almeria) Spain
– 2008- 100% of peppers, cucumbers and egg plant treated
with ICM
– Combination of cultural, chemical and biological control
methods
Classification: PUBLIC

22. Biological control of insects
Predatory mites
Amblyseius cucumeris – thrips
A swirskii – whitefly
A.andersoni – spider and russet mites
Phytoseuilus persimilis - spidermites
Hypoaspis miles - sciarids
Parasitoids
Encarsia and eretmocerus – whitefly
Aphidius – aphids
Diglyphus - leafminer
Bugs
Orius sp – thrips
Macrolophus - whitefly
Classification: PUBLIC

23. Summary
• Pests, Weeds and Diseases are a major cause of yield and crop quality loss,
and farm income reduction
• Systems approaches are vital
• Insect pest damage leaves the plant open to secondary attack from
damaging fungal, viral and bacterial diseases
• Without effective pest control 40-50% of the food we have today would
not exist
– Poor control of pests and diseases in the field will result in additional
losses in storage
– Animal Health is also affected by Pests and Diseases
• Chemical crop protection agents are essential to meet our food security
challenge
• Advances in plant science offer an opportunity for better genetics
Classification: PUBLIC