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Risk Perception and the Credibility of Hazard Warnings: Evidence from Tornado Warnings

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Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos

The document summarizes research examining the relationship between tornado warning false alarm rates (FAR) and tornado casualties. It finds that higher recent false alarm rates are associated with more tornado injuries and fatalities, after controlling for tornado and demographic characteristics. A one standard deviation increase in the local one-year FAR is estimated to increase injuries by 12-14% and fatalities by 13-18%. The results provide empirical evidence that higher false alarm rates may reduce the credibility of and response to tornado warnings.

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Credibility of Hazard Warnings: Evidence from Tornadoes Kevin M. Simmons Austin College Fulbright Research Scholar International Centre for GeoHazards Oslo, Norway
Economic and Societal Impacts of Tornadoes By Kevin M. Simmons and Daniel Sutter © 2010, 296 pages in paperback ISBN: 978-1-878220-99-8 AVAILABLE NOVEMBER 2010 from the American Meteorological Society and the University of Chicago Press
 
 
 
 
 
 
Warnings Save Lives ,[object Object],[object Object]
Warning Errors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NWS Metrics for Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NWS Metrics for Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The False Alarm Effect ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Is there a False Alarm Problem? ,[object Object]
In Econo Lingo: ,[object Object]
How Can This Happen?
Empirical Test ,[object Object]
False Alarms and Casualties ,[object Object],[object Object]
Econometric Models ,[object Object],[object Object]
Data Set for Tornadoes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Study Parameters ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Control Variables in Tornado Casualty Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results Injury Model ,[object Object],[object Object]
Results Fatality Model ,[object Object],[object Object]
THANK YOU FOR YOU ATTENTION

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Risk Perception and the Credibility of Hazard Warnings: Evidence from Tornado Warnings

  • 1. Credibility of Hazard Warnings: Evidence from Tornadoes Kevin M. Simmons Austin College Fulbright Research Scholar International Centre for GeoHazards Oslo, Norway
  • 2. Economic and Societal Impacts of Tornadoes By Kevin M. Simmons and Daniel Sutter © 2010, 296 pages in paperback ISBN: 978-1-878220-99-8 AVAILABLE NOVEMBER 2010 from the American Meteorological Society and the University of Chicago Press
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  • 16. How Can This Happen?
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  • 25. THANK YOU FOR YOU ATTENTION