Fekete, Dr. Alexander Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Germany

1. Dr. Alexander Fekete Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level SUN 2.1 + 2.5 (ID 666) International Disaster and Risk Conference, IDRC Davos 2010

12. CIP - definition Critical infrastructures (CI) include organizations and systems that have a major importance for the society and that, if disrupted, would comprehensively affect supply chains , public safety and could lead to further dramatic consequences.

15. Pre-Analysis What is the problem? Who is the enduser of this analysis? Which infrastructures are of interest? What is the target group that is analysed? Which is the smallest research unit of interest? Which data is necessary / already there? Step 1 Problem framing

21. Quality & Trust Logan Abassi UNDP Global. Haitian_national_palace_earthquake. Wikipedia.jpg Fekete 2001

26. Simplified criticality analysis Systeminterne Kritikalität Trigger Event Society Kritikalität für die Gesellschaft Infrastructure Other Infrastr. Relevant Hazard

27. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality

31. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality

32. Interdependencies http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFile/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_Infrastrukturen_en.pdf Blackout

33. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality

35. Cascading effects 04.11.2006 2006: intentional switch-off leads to dynamic instability Communication error UCTE - Net UCTE = Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity) Quelle: UCTE (Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity)

41. Limitations of a simplified analysis Main Road to Mamfe, SouthWest Cameroon Pictures courtesy of Achim Richards 2008, DED Corruption Dependence of trade and supply Hospital in 300km Rain season

43. Dimensions of inter-dependencies Lit. on interdependencies: Rinaldi et al. 2001, Rose 2007, MSB 2009 Infrastructure components Dependent components Multiple Impact Reaction Hazards Value for multiple hazards? Value for dependency? Impacted component Value for impacts? Affected population Research questions Initial impacts Impacts via infrastructure(s) Value for dependencies? Other infrastructures Fig. Fekete 2010

48. 3 different protection goal formulations "We need to prevent outages longer than X days for Y % of our services" "We need to have capabilities to cope with outages longer than X days for Y % of our services" "We need to be able to tolerate outages longer than X days for Y % of the population" Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels: Hypothetical protection goals 3a Initial infrastructure Critical number Critical timing Critical quality 3b Dependent infrastructures Critical number Critical timing Critical quality 3c Affected population Critical number Critical timing Critical quality

60. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality