Noralene Menchavez UY, Rajib SHAW Kyoto University, Japan

1. An Ecosystem-based
Resilience Analysis
of
Infanta, Quezon, Phil
ippines
Noralene Menchavez Uy and
Rajib Shaw
29 August 2012
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

2. Outline of Presentation 2
Overview
Research Objectives
Background of Study Location
Methodology
Findings
Discussion
Limitations of the Study
Scope for Further Research
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

3. Overview
3
When ecological integrity is not maintained, human well-
being will be negatively affected.
- Millennium Assessment Report (2005)
Photos: Municipality of Infanta
Ecosystem degradation puts vulnerable communities at risk by
reducing the resilience of natural systems and human
societies against the impacts of climate change and
increased risks of disaster.
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

4. Research Objectives
4
The study seeks to establish that ecosystem-based
adaptation can enhance climate resilience.
Research Objectives:
1. Ecosystem Resilience Analysis
- to assess the resilience of the mountain, river, urban, agricultural
plain, estuarine and coastal ecosystems of Infanta
2. Community Values for Ecosystems
- to identify community values for ecosystems and their services
- to determine autonomous and recommended adaptation actions
3. Ecosystem-based Adaptation Plan
- to develop an ecosystem-based adaptation plan for Infanta
- to examine local institutions and governance systems
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

5. Background of Study Location (1)
5
Municipality of Infanta, Philippines
Total area: 342.76 km2
Population: 62,251 (2008)
Annual municipal income: 1.2
million USD
Economic activities: copra & rice
production, fisheries
Hazard vulnerability:
(1)absorbs the frontal assault of
typhoons
(2)highly vulnerable to floods
(3) an active fault traverses 2
villages
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

6. Background of Study Location (2)
6
Ecosystem No of Total Land Area Population
Classification Villages (in km2)
Mountain 4 269.65 10,913
Riverine 5 6.83 9,030
Urban 5 2.00 9,683
Agricultural Plain 5 8.12 6,369
Estuarine 12 35.45 9,678
Coastal 5 20.71 16,578 R5
C1
Total 36 342.76 62,251 U5
R4
R3
P5 C2
Source: Municipality of Infanta R1
R2
U2 U3
U4
P4
C3
P3
M4 U1
E11 C4
P2 E10
P1 E12
M3
E5 E9
E6 C5
E4
M2 E8
E1 E7
M1 E2
E3
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

7. Background of Study Location (3)
7
Climate Trends
Average Annual Rainfall Average Monthly Rainfall
800
7000
700
6000
600
5000
500
4000
mm
mm
400
3000
300
2000
200
1000
100
0
0
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Year
Year
34
Average Annual 32
Temperature 30
C
28
26
24
22
1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Source: PAGASA,
Year
analyzed by the author
Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

8. Methodology (1)
8
January-February 2011:
(1)Workshop on ecosystem-
based adaptation
(2)Questionnaire survey in
village councils (n=36)
(3)Focus group discussion in 6
villages
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

9. Methodology (2)
9
Ecological Physical Economic Social Institutional
Ecosystem Richness Basic Infrastructure Finance Education and Governance
awareness
Ecosystem Services Land use Livelihood and Health Policy
Employment
Climate Housing and Structure Credit Skills and training Institutions
Environmental Water and Sanitation Household assets Social arrangements Budget
Disturbance
Ecology and Culture Technology Economic Tools Population Coordination
Description of Questionnaire
Multiple-choice type: 5 dimensions, 25 parameters, 125 measures
Analysis: weighted average and correlation
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

10. Findings (1)
10
1. Resilience Scores Analysis
Ecosystem Overall Overall Overall Overall Overall Overall Resilience
Classification Ecological Physical Economic Social Institutional Ecosystem Category
Score Score Score Score Score Score
Mountain 3.19 2.95 2.57 3.37 3.32 3.08 Medium
Riverine 3.18 3.29 3.02 3.48 3.15 3.22 Medium
Urban 2.64 3.51 2.97 3.35 3.08 3.11 Medium
Agricultural Plain 3.15 3.39 2.82 3.46 3.36 3.24 Medium
Estuarine 3.19 3.27 2.93 3.55 3.23 3.23 Medium
Coastal 3.07 2.93 2.67 3.93 3.71 3.26 High
Scale: Very High=3.75-5 Medium=2.75-3.24 Very Low=1-2.24
High=3.25-3.74 Low=2.25-2.74
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

11. Findings (2)
11
1. Resilience Scores Analysis
Ecological Ecological Ecological
5 5 5
4 4 4
Institutional
3
Physical Institutional
3
2 Physical Institutional
3
2 Physical Main Findings:
2
1 1 1 1. Overall scores
indicate medium
Social Economic Social Economic Social Economic to high levels of
Riverine Urban
Mountain resilience
2. Coastal= highest
Ecological Ecological
5
Ecological
5
resilience
5
4 4 4 Mountain= lowest
3
resilience
3 3
Institutional Physical Institutional 2 Physical Institutional 2 Physical
2
1 1 1
Social Economic Social Economic Social Economic
Agricultural Plain Estuarine Coastal
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

12. Findings (3)
12
2. Resilience Spatial Analysis
Main Findings:
1. Overall scores show
Very High
High Very High
highest scores in
the social dimension
Medium High
Low Medium
Very Low Low
and lowest
Very Low
Ecological Physical
scores in the
economic dimension
Very High
High
2. Binulasan=Coastal=
highest resilience
Medium
Low
Very Low
Institutional Tongohin= Mountain=
lowest resilience
Very High
Very High
High
High
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Economic Social
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

13. Discussion 13
 Variations among the resilience of ecosystems require a
different approach to adaptation
- specific dimensions that need to be improved may be
prioritized more that the others
- dimensions may need to be addressed collectively
 In general, economic and ecological resilience need to be
enhanced in Infanta
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

14. Implications to Ecosystem-based Adaptation Planning
14
 A baseline is determined where adaptation measures
that represent the communities responses to the specific
character of the ecosystem and the physical, economic,
social and institutional driving forces can be based upon;
 Entry points are established for an ecosystem-based
adaptation strategy which can enhance climate
resilience in Infanta.
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

15. Limitations of the Study 15
-Survey results are based on perceptions of a select
group, which could not be verified objectively.
-By assuming the established classification of ecosystems
by the local government, the survey sample per ecosystem
may not give a desired statistically valid result.
-It would have been ideal to pursue the study at a river basin
space (i.e. Agos River Basin) to observe ecosystem flows
but different institutional, jurisdictional and administrative
settings existing in its boundaries make this scale of
analysis in Infanta and its surrounding regions difficult.
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

16. Scope for Further Research 16
-Consideration of the broader ecosystem (i.e. Agos River
Basin) and identify the conditions and structures within
which the system functions,
-Utilization of science-based tools to supplement the results
of this research,
-Analysis on how ecosystem-based approaches can be
integrated into policy and governance
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies

17. 17
Thank you for your kind attention.
Kyoto University International Environment and Disaster Management
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies