A SIGNIFICANTLY bigger than expected global wheat crop continues to drive wheat prices down – the bellwether Chicago futures contract recently trading levels not seen since mid-2010. European wheat prices haven’t fallen quite as quickly or as far, largely because EU wheat is being drawn into world export markets in record volumes. However, prices here have at least shed about 8.5% basis the Paris milling futures market where nearby deliveries dropped back to their October 2013 lows and new crop November to its harvest lows. The weakest European sector this month was UK feed wheat, prices of which fell on the London futures market to their cheapest since late 2011. At this stage, EU futures tell us that milling wheat will be about 4.5% cheaper still by late 2014 whereas the US markets ‘forecast’ prices recovering by about 6% by then. Based on the supply, demand and stocks outlook, many observers think the EU scenario more accurate.

1. Digital Re-print January | February 2014
Global Feed Markets: January- Febrauary 2014
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2. &Feed millinG technoloGy
48 | COMMODITIES
GFMT’s market analyst
John Buckley reviews world
trading conditions which are
impacting the full range of
commodities used in food
and feed production. His
observations will influence
your decision-making.
While soya drives the overall
oilmeal price trend, there
is plenty of good news
among alternative oilseed
crops too. Estimates of the
2013/14 global rapeseed
and sunflowerseed harvests
have been raised again and
are now each up by about
7m tonnes on the year – for
rapeseed that adds about
11% and for sunflowerseed
20% to last year’s supply.
Supplies of palm kernels are
also up by about 4%.
Grain
Massive crop still driving
wheat prices down
A
SIGNIFICANTLY bigger than expected global wheat crop continues to drive
wheat prices down – the bellwether Chicago futures contract recently trading
levels not seen since mid-2010. European wheat prices haven’t fallen quite as
quickly or as far, largely because EU wheat is being drawn into world export
markets in record volumes. However, prices here have at least shed about 8.5% basis the
Paris milling futures market where nearby deliveries dropped back to their October 2013
lows and new crop November to its harvest lows. The weakest European sector this
month was UK feed wheat, prices of which fell on the London futures market to their
cheapest since late 2011. At this stage, EU futures tell us that milling wheat will be about
4.5% cheaper still by late 2014 whereas the US markets ‘forecast’ prices recovering by
about 6% by then. Based on the supply, demand and stocks outlook, many observers think
the EU scenario more accurate.
European and US markets have also been closely watching events on the world export
market for wheat – forecast to enjoy a record volume of trade this season. Global export
prices haven’t fully reflected the plunge in Chicago futures yet, mainly because of a pull
back in the cheap and hectic early-season pace of selling by the ‘Black Sea’ countries,
Russia, Ukraine and Rumania. Prices offered by these three, especially Russia and Ukraine,
have drifted higher from late 2013 onward as their exportable quality supplies have been
run down – though there is cer tainly no lack of competition among other expor ters as
we go to press, suggesting physical wheat prices may also have fur ther to fall yet.
One key factor that dominates sentiment is the sheer size of this season’s world wheat
crop. Back in the summer, most analysts were expecting a harvest somewhere in the
region of 680m tonnes. By the time of our last issue that had jumped to 706m and since
then, another 6m has been added, making this easily the biggest global wheat crop ever.
The main factor in this latest increase has been another up-rating of the Canadian crop,
by 4.3m to 37.5m tonnes. Increments have also been made to Australian and Chinese

3. 49 | January - February 2014
crops (1m tonnes each)) and Russia (600,000) far outweighing the
only blot on the landscape, the dismal performance by Argentina.
Not so long ago, this country was a stalwar t member of what
used to be called (before the former Soviet countries erupted
onto the scene) the ‘Big Five’ expor ters, producing at least 15m
tonnes, sometimes more. But this year, in response to government
controlling expor t trade and lower returns, farmers cut acreage
sharply, reducing the crop to 10m tonnes or less – its smallest
on modern record.
Argentina’s consequent absence from expor t trade hasn’t
been missed as much as it might in earlier years due to there
being no lack of alternative wheat expor ters eager to supply
the world market. India, for example, which used to produce
about 80m tonnes a year, mainly for home consumption, has
suddenly star ted turning out record crops of 90m tonnes and
more and has built up a surfeit of stocks, far exceeding its storage
capacity. To reduce this surplus, it has embarked on an expor t
programme but this is going slowly so far due to world wheat
prices dropping below levels at which it can trade profitably
against its relatively high domestic procurement price. However,
India’s next crop (harvested around April) may be even bigger
than last year’s with some government ministers talking of as
much as 100m tonnes. So the imperative to expor t more, even
at a loss in terms of government subsidy, is increasing.
India’s wheat is not top quality and some buyers like the world’s
largest impor ter Egypt demand higher specs. But many others
are less fussy and will take it if the price is right. Recently trading
around $270 /tonne and repor tedly prepared to take that as
low as $260, India could set the bar low for other expor ters
selling into markets more interested in bargains than quality. That
includes many of the countries that attract most competition in
the Middle-east/Nor th Africa (MENA) region. It also applies to
Asian corn impor ters.
Recently, the US has been the cheapest offer on world wheat
expor t market, selling soft milling to Egypt as low as $265/tonne
fob terms (before freight). That compares with sales to Egypt by
the EU (France) around $279 fob. Even with its more expensive
transatlantic freight, US soft wheat now comes out at similar levels
to the EU in these destination markets. (It’s interesting to note
that this time last year, the Chicago markets predicted soft wheat
futures would have risen by now to over $300/tonne versus the
3½-year low of $202 that actually traded in Chicago in January).
Recent international import tenders have shown that the Black
sea countries are not finished yet with their 2013/14 expor t
campaigns. This year’s large Canadian and Australian wheat crops
also have to be fully marketed into expor t channels. Along with
the drooping US price this requires European wheat exporters to
keep prices competitive and, in turn, demands that EU domestic
wheat prices stay down.
Another key factor that will help that process – especially the
cost of feed wheat – is the increasing competition within the EU
market from cheap imported corn, the bulk coming from Ukraine
Grain
&Feed millinG technoloGy
and Russia’s record 2013 crops. As we went to press, the EU had
already granted 6.2m tonnes of licences to impor t corn in the
season to date, largely from these two, even more than at this
time last year. That contrasts with the USDA’s assessment that EU
corn impor ts from all sources will drop 20% this season. So long
as this abundance of cheap imported corn persists, EU feedwheat
prices should be held in check. Ukraine has so far expor ted over
11m tonnes of corn in total and is predicted to sell about 18m by
the end of the season – so there is some way to go yet - while
Russia is forecast to expor t about 2.5m.
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4. 50 | COMMODITIES
Cheap impor ted corn – plus this season’s 5m tonnes increase
in domestic barley production - would be making an even bigger
impact on EU feed prices if not for the pell-mell pace of EU wheat
exports. So far this season, 17.5m tonnes of soft wheat have been
licensed to non-EU countries – over 50% more than at this time last
year. That compares with the USDA forecast which has EU total
wheat expor ts rising by only 15% this season, albeit to a record
26m tonnes. That implies another 8.5m can be sold or – and if
the cheap corn keeps coming in – even more than that. The EU
is forecast to use about 120m tonnes of wheat total this season
out of a 143m tonne crop and about 42% of that is forecast in
the feed sector.
Finally to wheat crop prospects for 2014 which might be summed
up as ‘more of the same.’ A deep freeze in the USA seems to
have caused minimal damage to winter wheat crops that were
sown on a larger area last autumn than in 2012 and may yield
better after a moister winter. European and CIS crops have had
an unusually mild winter, putting Europe’s in much better shape
than last year and allowing CIS fields to catch up with late planting.
Although there were some potential dryness issues in Europe,
Russia and Ukraine, where planted area is lower this year, there
has now been some good rain/snown and most crops there are
reported in good shape with potential to yield better than last year.
West Europe has also had some issues with too much rain while
southeast Europe could do with more moisture. But the general
situation encourages many analysts to expect a 2014 wheat crop
at least as large, if not larger than last year’s. Among the remaining
big exporters, Canada is a grey area as it sows the bulk of its crop
in the spring. Farmers there are repor tedly disappointed with
low prices resulting from the record 2013 crop and lower world
markets so wheat area there is expected to contract - while yields
might struggle to approach last year’s unusually high level (26%
up on 2012!). Either way Canada will have much larger star ting
stocks for 2014/15. Taking into account these possibilities, and
the expected jump in Indian output, at this early stage, it looks
possible that global wheat output will again be large – though
maybe nearer 680/690m than 710m tonnes. Also, even after this
season’s forecast 20/22m tonnes rise in world consumption, global
starting stocks should be higher. Along with the competition from
a huge, far cheaper maize supply (the discount to wheat in Chicago
futures is about 25% this month), the forward fundamentals
for wheat offer no obvious justification for price rises and even
potential for further declines. That scenario was echoed by some
of the forecasts from banks and hedge funds this month – most
indicate bets on wheat prices rising simply aren’t wor th investing
in this year - which makes good news for consumers.
&Feed millinG technoloGy
Grain
tonnes). This suppor ted recent trade and quasi-official Chinese
estimates that the country’s import demand – this season’s forecast
biggest growth area – would not reach the earlier expected 7-10m
tonnes (USDA has now reduced that to 5m).
It also sharpened the focus on China’s continual rejection of
impor ted corn cargoes from the USA containing an unapproved
GM variety. China was the second largest growth factor (after
Mexico) in this season’s forecast higher US corn expor t trade,
having bought 4.9m of US total sales of 29.5m. Discounts have
been required to diver t these unwanted cargoes have been
diver ted to other Asian customers, weighing on US physical and
futures prices. Even so, US maize expor ts are still expected to
expand from 18.3m to 37m tonnes as Mexico doubles impor ts
and other buyers take more at this year’s cheaper prices.
Elsewhere on the supply scene, the newly planted Argentine
crop has had some stress from hot dry weather, trimming some
forecasts by about 1m tonnes from earlier ideas of a similar crop to
last year’s bumper 26m. Brazil, on the other hand, has had mostly
perfect weather, making the USDA’s prediction of 70m tonnes
Plenty of maize too ...
After their 40% drop in calendar 2013, maize prices have held
remarkably steady recently, the Chicago futures market more or
less back where it was as the previous issue of Milling went to press
after trading a tight range both sides. It’s interesting to note that
at this time last year, CBOT maize offered an $80/tonne discount
to wheat on the exchange. Currently, it’s around $180 cheaper
and the gap is indicated even wider later this year - despite the
far looser stock/use ratio for wheat (for the end 2013/14, that
equation is 26% or 13½ weeks’ supply versus maize around 17%
or just under 9 weeks).
Since our last review, the USDA has issued its final US maize crop
estimate for 2013 at just under 354m tonnes – about 1.6m under its
November forecast versus trade expectations of something 1m-3m
tonnes higher. This change is not of lasting statistical significance
in the context of a crop still 80m tonnes bigger than last year’s in
a season when demand is expected to increase by a far smaller
34m tonnes. Although the consumption estimate is up almost
4m tonnes from November, it will still leave 2013/14 carryover
stocks at a very ample 41.4m tonnes (versus last year’s 20.9m).
No less impor tant was the USDA’s 6m tonne increase to its
crop estimate for second largest maize producer China (now 216m
look too cautious. A lot depends on the second or ‘Safrinhas’ crop
which was sown on unusually large area last year and had bumper
yields. That is expected to contract somewhat this year but that
hasn’t stopped some analysts predicting a 74-76m tonne total crop
(versus last year’s record 81m). Even if Brazil’s 2013/14 expor ts
dropped, say 5m tonnes with a smaller harvest to the currently
forecast 21m, that would still be massive by comparison with all
years prior to last season’s record 26m (whe Brazil’s expor ts
were usually only 8-12m).
Along with the huge CIS maize crops mentioned above, this is
unprecedented competition for US exporters – and at discounted
prices too. As a result, recent estimates suggest the US will only
supply a third of world maize import demand in 2013/14 compared
with 57% five years ago.
In total, world maize output is now seen at 967m tonnes
compared with last year’s 863m and the previous record (2011/12)

5. 51 | January - February 2014
Grain
&Feed millinG technoloGy
886m tonnes. Consumption, on the other hand is seen rising
by 77m tonnes, mostly taking place in the US, China, Brazil and
Mexico. As in the US market, that means world stocks rising – by
28m tonnes to 160m, providing a more comforting cushion against
possible 2014 crop problems.
In the Nor then Hemisphere, maize has yet to be sown but
there are some early pointers to farmers’ intentions. The USA was
initially forecast by many analysts to reduce acreage in response to
the steep price drop and a desire to plant more soyabeans because
of their relatively better prices. However, recently, some sources
hav drawn attention to the amount of land that went unsown
because of bad weather last spring – over 8m acres. Along with by almost a third to a record 72m tonnes. On the top of that, the
land released from conservation, some observers estimate well US is also expected this spring to sow its largest soya acreage ever
over 9m acres of extra crop land will be available – enough to in a response to the relatively better return that farmers can get
sharply expand soyabean areas without denting the maize share. from beans versus maize – the main rival for land in the Midwest
Coupled with another year of trend yields, that could again leave hear t of the US Corn Belt. So, barring some weather upset to
the US in hefty supply for 2014/15, even without those extra the Lat-Am harvests or US sowing/summer crop development,
carryover stocks.
the world is likely to be awash with soyabeans come the autumn.
A similar equation could be presented in the CIS countries too as
The full weight of these ’macro’ figures has yet to fully make
land that went unplanted to winter wheat because of wet weather its mark in lower soya meal prices, due to several factors. One
is sown this spring to maize. The way CIS maize exports are going is the speed at which last year’s US soya crop is disappearing,
may give farmers confidence to
VICTAMisland:Layout 1 30/8/13 14:22 Page 1
maintain or boost area even
though prices are down.
Futures markets suggest
a modest premium on end2014 maize prices but it would
not be a total surprise if the
reverse situation occurred
although, as usual one must
remember that a world of
weather possibilities lie ahead
to alter prospects for planting,
growing and harvest seasons in
the Americas, Europe and the
8 – 10 April 2014 . Bangkok International Trade & Exhibition Centre (BITEC), Bangkok, Thailand
CIS.
… and a record
oilmeal supply too
Es timates of wor ld oilbearing crops seem to keep
incr ea sing too with each
passing month, promising
ample supplies and cheaper
for ward prices for oilmeals.
The key factor remains this
season’s expected massive
Latin American soyabean crop
which has just begun harvest.
The popular range for Brazil’s
output is now 90/91m tonnes
versus last year’s 82m while
Argentina’s is expected to
increase from just over 49m to
about 55m. Just two years ago,
these two produced 66.5m
and 40.1m tonnes respectively.
Along with smaller producers
like Paraguay, that means the
region as a whole is producing
about 43/45m tonnes more
beans than in 2011/12, equal to
about 35m tonnes more soya
meal. Over that time, global
demand for the end product
is projected to increase by just
9m tonnes, resulting in global
soyabean surplus stocks rising
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GRAPAS Asia 2014
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Contact details
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conference information please visit:
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6. &Feed millinG technoloGy
52 | COMMODITIES
Grain
especially in shipments to the world’s top soya impor ter China.
This has happened for several reasons. One is that China wants
to see the Latin American crops heading for the harvest home
run and, as insurance against a weather upset, has probably
double-booked a lot of its US soyabean impor t purchases.
Another incentive to buy US is China’s fear that Brazil may see
a repeat of the shipping disruption it suffered last year when
record soya, sugar and maize crops fought for loading and vessel
space, resulting in delayed expor ts. Brazil has pledged por t
logistic improvements but with even bigger crops this year,
customers need to be convinced. A third factor is the weakness
of Argentina’s economy, resulting in a collapsing currency and
rampant inflation, prompting its farmers to hoard a huge chunk
of last year’s big crop – some estimate between 8m and 11m
tonnes. That par ticularly affects foreign buyers of soya meal
of which Argentina is the largest expor ter. So the US gets the
expor t business in both beans and products, hoisting its crush
and threatening very low pipeline stocks well before its season
ends in August.
The US can meet this challenge if Brazil gets its shipping sorted
out and China cancels a lot of its US soyabean purchases – or
GRAPASisland:Layout
30/8/13 14:29 Page 1
the US itself could impor t1cheap and plentiful Latin American
supplies to keep its crushers and meal consumers going and their
input prices under control. But in the meantime, there remains
a theoretical gap to be filled and that is tending to keep soya
prices higher than the longer term supply fundamentals suggest
they should be. That said, forward futures markets show the way
the wind is likely to blow. Even the 18% price drop they currently
por tray may well prove conservative if all these fresh supplies
arrive as planned.
While soya drives the overall oilmeal price trend, there is
p l e n t y of g o o d n e w s
among alternative oilseed
crops too. Estimates of the
2013 /14 global rapeseed
and sunflowerseed harvests
have been raised again and
are now each up by about
7m tonnes on the year – for
rapeseed that adds about
11% and for sunflowerseed
20 % to last year’s supply.
Supplies of palm kernels
8 – 10 April 2014 . Bangkok International Trade & Exhibition Centre (BITEC), Bangkok, Thailand
are also up by about 4% .
Including the other oilmeal
sou r ces – g r ou nd nu t s ,
cottonseed, copra etc, this
puts total world oilseed
supply 31m tonnes higher
this year than last and almost
60m over that of 2011/12.
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The exhibition will be supported
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Contact details
For visitor, exhibition stand
space and conference
information please visit:
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•In the shor t ter m, key
supply factors will include
how US, European and CIS
crops emerge from what has
so far been a gentler winter
than last year’s. Moisture has
been plentiful (sometimes
too much of a good thing)
in West Europe, better than
in recent years in the US
and after recent rain and
snow, satisfactor y in the
‘Black Sea’ region. Traders
are expecting higher yields
and bigger overall crops
across all three regions if the
weather stays cooperative.
Canada may sow a lot less
wheat for its mainly spring
planted crop and see yields
decline from las t year’s
stellar levels but still have

7. 53 | January - February 2014
Grain
&Feed millinG technoloGy
an above average crop – and carryover stocks.
is now expected to rise by 7.6% this season, despite earlier
• Wheat costs have been driven down by this season’s huge
government environmental agency proposals to curb bio-fuel
world crop and by strong expor t competition – even though
blending. Yet US stocks will still rebound to what some see as
impor t demand is running at record levels too, especially from
burdensome levels.
the Middle East where political tensions may be encouraging • Will China remain a key maize importer, helping to soak up some
some stocking up of food basics.
of the world surplus? Recent analyses have reduced forecasts
• There is some mild unease about the pace of European
for 2013/14 impor ts on the basis that China’s own crop was
expor t sales – running far in excess of the target pace. Yet
under-rated (not for the first time).
the upward pressure on wheat prices that might normally
imply is contained by equally massive impor ts of cheap maize OILMEALS/PROTEINS
from the CIS region, mainly Ukraine. The US is also selling • Latin American soya crops seem to be in sight of achieving their
wheat expor ts faster than needed but will star t its own
planned 2014 records. Along with a planned record US crop,
that should keep oilmeal costs down across the board in the
har vest in four months’ time. Canada, Australia and India
year ahead.
have plenty of current crop wheat left to expor t. Argentina,
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are all still in the game too, • China will remain the main influence on demand.
albeit offering smaller quantities now. So the implied ‘buyers’ • Big EU and CIS rapeseed & sunflowerseed and Canadian canola
market’ continues. Along with sustained competition for feed
crops are also helping to inflate 2013/14 oilmeal supplies. Current
wheat from record maize supplies, that should help hold down
crop pointers for these are mixed. Weather favours Europe and
European wheat costs, assuming no crop weather problems
CIS crops while Canada will sow and, probably yield less canola.
going for ward.
But stocks of both oilseeds have been rebuilt somewhat this
• Food, bio-fuel and other outlets will also help add about 3.5%
season to help cushion against any decline in new production
FIAAPisland:Layout 1 30/8/13 14:26 not necessarily take place).
or 24m tonnes to world total wheat consumption in 2013/14
(which may Page 1
but the large crop will still
allowing some moderate
stock growth - to more than
adequate levels in terms of
global consumption.
COARSE GRAINS
• Last year’s US maize crop
rebound continues to hold
down global feed gr ain
prices along with record
Latin American and CIS
export supplies. Along with
bigger barley output it will
leave the world with much
larger carryover stocks for
the new coarse grain season
star ting September 1.
• US planting might contract
t his s pr ing a s f a r m e r s
dis a ppointe d w i t h low
pr ices tur n to more
remuner ative crops like
soyabeans. But with more
overall acres available this
year, some analysts think
there may be room enough
to increase bean crops
without cut ting back on
maize.
• Ukraine and Russia have
unplanted winter wheat
land that will go to spring
planted crops – oilseeds and
maize. They are expected
to remain key players in
the global maize expor t
market with huge influence
on European feed values.
• Ideas that US feed use of
maize will rise in the year
ahead were reinforced
by higher than expected
consumption and lower
than expected stocks for
the first quarter of 2013/14.
US ethanol demand for
maize (40% of consumption)
8 – 10 April 2014 . Bangkok International Trade & Exhibition Centre (BITEC), Bangkok, Thailand
Asia’s foremost exhibition and
conferences for the ingredients
and additives used in the
production of animal feeds,
aquafeeds and petfoods
FIAAP Asia 2014 is the only dedicated trade show and conference organised specifically for feed ingredients,
additives and formulation within the dynamic and growing region of South and South East Asia.
New for 2014
Now including the first
ASEAN Feed Summit
Supported by
The Thailand Convention
and Exhibition Bureau
Specialist conferences
The exhibition will be supported
by its own specialist conferences.
They will include:
The FIAAP Conference 2014
Petfood Forum Asia 2014
Aquafeed Horizons Asia 2014
The Thai Feed Conference 2014
Co-located with
VICTAM Asia 2014
www.victam.com
Contact details
For visitor, exhibition stand
space and conference
information please visit:
www.fiaap.com

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January - February 2014
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