Presentacion de Vicente Barros en el marco del Seminario de Formación Profesional en Cambio Climático y Bosques, organizado por Fopea, RADPC y Banco Mundial
4. IMPACTOS MUCHO MAS IMPORTANTES
CON MAS DE 2 C DE CALENTAMIENTO
EXTINCIÓN DE ESPECIES YO ECOSISTEMAS
TOS EN LA SEGUNDA MITAD DEL
CRISIS DEL AGUA
PROPAGACIÓN DE VECTORES Y ENFERMEDADES
PÉRDIDA DE TIERRA POR AUMENTO DEL NIVEL
DEL MAR
MAYOR IMPACTO EN PAISES EN DESARROLLO
4
AUMENTO DE CONFLICTIVIDAD
5. IMPACTOS MUCHO MAS IMPORTANTES
CON MAS DE 2 C DE CALENTAMIENTO
GRAN PELIGRO DE QUE LA BIOSFERA DEJE DE
SER UN SUMIDERO DE CARBONO
5
6. LA MITIGACION DEL
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
REQUIERE
REDUCIR EL
CONSUMO DE HIDROCARBUROS
6
8. PETROLEO:
DEMANDA y OFERTA
Brecha creciente (AIE)
Quien lo tiene y quien lo consume
Inestabilidad económica
Conflicto político
La paz
9. EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
ES UN CONDICIONANTE DE
LA SOLUCIÓN A LA CRISIS
ENERGÉTICA GLOBAL
Energía renovable
Versus Carbón
Alineamientos de las grandes
potencias económicas
10. Respuesta en marcha:
1. Independencia
energética
2. Innovación y liderazgo
tecnológico
3. Generación de empleo
calificado
14. The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks
of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation
15. A changing climate leads to changes in extreme
weather and climate events
16
16. Socioeconomic development interacts with natural
climate variations and human-caused climate change
to influence disaster risk
Disaster Risk: Vulnerability:
the likelihood of severe the predisposition of a
alterations in the normal person or group to be
functioning of a adversely affected
community or society due
to weather or climate
events interacting with
vulnerable social
conditions
17
17. Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and
frequency of climate events increases disaster risk
Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the
degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters
18
18. Increasing exposure of people and assets has been
the major cause of changes in disaster losses
Pakistan floods, 2010
6 million left homeless
19
19. Fatalities are higher in developing countries
From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in
developing countries
20
20. Climate models project more frequent hot days
throughout the 21st century
In many regions, the time between “20-year” (unusually)
warm days will decrease
21
21. There are strategies that can help manage disaster
risk now and also help improve people’s livelihoods
and well-being
The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near
term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term
22
SPM: Figure SPM.1Full report: 1.1.2.1 (page 9 and 10); 1.1.2.3 (page 12 and 13)
HIGH CONFIDENCESPMPage 4, line 37-38.Full report:4.5.3.3, page 44. Miller et al 2008 An exploration of trends in normalised weather-related catastrophe losses. In: Climate Extremes and Society [Diaz, H.F. and Murnane, R.J. (eds.)]. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, pp. 225-247.Bouwer 2011 Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 39-46.Pielke Jr. et al 2005, Clarifying the attribution of recent disaster losses: a response to Epstein and McCarthy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1481-1483.Bouwer et al 2007. Confronting disaster losses. Science, 318, 753.Pakistan statistic:Chapter 8, page 24 – no associated citation.
HIGH CONFIDENCESPM: Page 4, line 26-27Report: 4.5.2Page 40: During the 25 year period from 1970 to 2008 over 95% of deathsfrom natural disasters occurred in developing countries and direct economic losses averaged US$54 billion perannum (Freeman, 2000; Cavallo and Noy, 2010).Cavallo, E. and I. Noy, 2010: The economic of natural disasters: A survey. Inter-American Development Bank, IDBWorking Paper Series, No. IDB-WP-124 International Monetary Fund WP/04/224,http://www.iadb.org/res/publications/pubfiles/pubIDB-WP-124.pdf
SPMPage 6, line 34-40Figure SPM 3AFull report:3.3.1, page 25Figure 3.5Adapted from Kharin et al 2007
HIGH AGREEMENT/MEDIUM EVIDENCE FOR TITLE FINDING HIGH AGREEMENT/MEDIUM EVIDENCE FOR BOTTOM FINDNGSPM:Page 9, line 1-4.
COMMENT FROM WGI: Figure is not readable. Also, are we missing an arrow after the selection of authors?