This document discusses project estimation and how estimates become more accurate over time as more details are known. It notes that initial estimates can be off by a factor of 4x due to lack of details and complexity. Using agile methodology, estimates are revised each sprint or iteration as the project progresses to account for learnings and ensure deviations are addressed.

1. F I L IPE LOURO (SCRUM MASTER / AGI LE COACH)
EST IMATES

2. FROM WIKIPEDIA
“ E S T I M A T I O N I S T H E P R O C E S S O F F I N D I N G A N
APPROXIMAT ION OF A VALUE THAT WI L L BE USED FOR
S O M E P U R P O S E ”

3. LESSONS LEARNED (PARAGL IDING)
WEATHER FORECASTS

4. EXERCISE
• Project
- 2 months for Design and Architecture
- 4 months for Development
- 1 month for Testing
• Scenario
- Design and Architecture Estimate is Wrong by 2 weeks
- What will you do?
• Solutions
- Force the Developers to Work Harder?
- Delay the Project By 2 Weeks?
- Delay the Project By 25% (Best Alternative)

5. STAT IST ICS
( 5 0 YEARS)
• The first estimate at the
beginning of a project can be
wrong by a +/- 4x factor
• Lack of Details
• Complexity
• To deal with this we spend a lot
of time on the requirements /
design / architecture.
• As more detail are added our
Estimates get better

6. STAT IST ICS
THE CONE OF UNCERT A INT Y

7. EST IMATES
E S T IMA T E S ARE INACCURA T E

8. AGI LE EST IMAT ION
• Agile Estimation embraces the cone of uncertainty!
• Deviations become “More Accurate Estimations”.
• The estimates are revised every sprint or iteration.