Noonan

Dumb Supermodels? On the catwalk between social and physical models Douglas S. Noonan School of Public Policy Georgia Institute of Technology

On models and “supermodels” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Some basic questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What we don’t know ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What we don’t know ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Some interesting questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The nature of models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Some prominent models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Why model? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Example model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Here be Supermodels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Endogeneity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

“Smart” Supermodels Social models (economic, transportation, etc.) Physical models (atmospheric, meteorological, etc.)

Dumb Supermodels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Smart Supermodels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Air Quality Alert Impacts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Air Quality Alert Impacts ,[object Object]

Air Quality Alert Impacts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Implications and Impacts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Histogram for departure time, all days

Histogram for departure time, red-alert days

Outdoor activities/exercise ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Air Quality Alert Impacts ,[object Object],[object Object]

Smart or Dumb Supermodels ,[object Object],[object Object]

Smart Supermodels (“on the catwalk”) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Other Supermodels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Other Supermodels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Classic dose-response curve Here, environmental quality is not exogenous; possibly chosen based on individual traits

Other Supermodels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Adaptation and Information ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

On the Catwalk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

On the Catwalk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Dumb Supermodels and Trying to be Wrong ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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