4. Recent Climate Trends in Malawi
4
• Malawi particularly prone to adverse climate hazards: frequent and
prolonged dry spells, seasonal droughts, intense rainfall, riverine
floods, and flash floods.
• Droughts and floods increased in frequency, intensity, and
magnitude over the past 20 years.
• Significant increasing trends in the frequency of hot days and
nights in all seasons.
• Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.0°C
by the 2060’s, and by 1.5 to 5.0°C by the 2090s.
• All models consistently project increases in the proportion of
rainfall that falls in heavy events in the annual average of up to 19%
by the 2090s.
5. Agriculture and Climate Change in Malawi
5
• Agriculture (which is mainly rain-fed) is central to Malawi’s
economy and livelihoods, and will continue to be
fundamental for sustainable development of the country.
• In the last 5 years, agriculture has accounted for 35% of
GDP, 85% of the labour force and 83% of foreign exchange
earnings.
• Agriculture is the sector that will be most severely
impacted by climate change (NAPA).
• Over 50 percent of the population lives below the poverty
line and one in five people is chronically food insecure.
6. Our View in Brief:
6
Agriculture: key sector to address challenges of food
security under climate change (sink and source)
Ag growth effective means of poverty reduction
Projected CC impacts entail an urgent need for the
adaptation of the agriculture sector
Mitigation can come through synergistic measures and be
an additional source of finance
7. Thrust of CSA Activities Implemented by
FAO and MoAIWD
7
8. The CSA project aims at building evidence-based agricultural
development strategies, policies and investment
frameworks to:
1. sustainably increase agricultural productivity and
incomes;
2. build resilience and the capacity of agricultural and
food systems to adapt to climate change; and
3. seek opportunities to reduce and remove GHGs
compatibly with their national food security and
development goals.
9. Approach of the CSA project in Malawi
9
is NOT about…
• Providing one-size-fits-all solutions for agricultural technology
or practice for the whole world, region, country or sub-national
level;
• Analyzing GHG emissions reductions potentials as a single
driver
It IS about…
• Providing a context-specific approach to agricultural development;
• Based on specific evidences and trends found in Malawi; and
• Based on the project methodology which makes a link between
research findings, policy making and capacity development
10. www.fao.org/climatechange/epic
Develop a policy environment
& agricultural investments to
improve food security and
provide resilience under
climate uncertainty
NEEDS RESEARCH COMPONENT
What are the barriers to adoption of CSA
practices?
Legal & Institutional Appraisal: mapping
institutional relationships and identifying
constraints
What are the synergies and tradeoffs
between food security, adaptation and
mitigation from agricultural practices?
POLICY SUPPORT
COMPONENT
Identifying where policy coordination at
the national level is needed and draw
recommendations on how to do it
Facilitating national participation/inputs
to climate and agriculture international
policy process
Project Framework
Evidence
Base
Strategic Framework
& Policy Advice
OUTPUTS
Investment proposals
Capacity
Building
What are the policy levers to facilitate
adoption and what will they cost?
11. What is special about the CSA Project?
Three aspects stand out:
• The approach taken brings together, in a coherent
framework, economics, institutional analysis, and policy
to understand barriers to the adoption of practices;
• Matches spatial climate data and household survey
data to examine how climate affects economic
decisions by households; and
• Analyses are structured to be useful in the development
of country-owned investment proposals, as well as
identifying and building mechanisms to link to
financing sources- both Climate Change and Agriculture
11
12. 1. Evidence: Quantitative and qualitative analyses of primary and
secondary data at household and community level combined
with institutional and geo-referenced climate data to:
a) assess the situation on food security, adaptation and
potential mitigation;
b) Identify the best CSA options: through the CBA in 4 districts
(Balaka, Ntcheu, Kasungu and Mzimba) – 1,433 fields by 524
HH over 11 EPAs;
c) Understand barriers to CSA adoption using World Bank
LSMS-ISA data;
d) Risk management analysis – identification of risk reducing
tools; and
e) Identify enabling factors.
Activities 1/3: Creating a base of evidence
13. 2. Project coordination unit/core team: keeping a dialogue with
members from MoAIWD, and other stakeholders such as NGOs,
university, civil society and FAO
3. Policy and institutional mapping: to better understand policy
formulation, linkages and potential gaps or
conflict/contradictions
4. Institutional data collection: to better understand influence of
institutions (i.e. cooperatives, access to credit, subsidies, land
tenure etc) in adopting CSA vs conventional agriculture.
5. Supporting country’s policy formulation through policy
dialogue and analysis
Activities 2/3: Policy component
14. 6. Coordination between climate change and agricultural policy
(e.g. enhancing climate change and agricultural policy
alignment in support of CSA, Supporting capacity to link
international and national policy issues)
7. Capacity development:
• Supporting MSc students, a PhD student and mentoring
• Implement training activities to agricultural frontline staff
• Support policy makers’ participation to UNFCCC
negotiations
8. Collaboration with CCAFS: using scenarios to improve CSA
planning
9. Developing a strategic framework for investment in CSA in
Malawi
Activities 3/3: Capacity building and overarching
16. Climate change adapted agriculture sector underpinned
by evidence-based planning and programming of an
out-scaled and well-coordinated climate-smart
agriculture that addresses on-farm and off-farm risks.
What is this Vision?
18. • Malawi - already experiences several climate change effects; most of
these frequently negatively impact on agriculture;
• Negative impacts of climate change influence the application of
agricultural practices/strategies that are most effective in increasing
productivity and farm incomes;
• CSA represents an approach to building, consolidating and
disseminating evidence on climate change effects and effective
strategies across the country has been initiated;
• Emerging results from Malawi-FAO CSA project - there are several
activities planned under ASWAp with high CSA potential (= investments
into enabling actions to support CSA)
• ASWAp (especially as the next phase is being considered), as well as
the launch of the NCCIP provides a good basis for guiding investments.
Critical to ensure their coordination – at intra- and inter-sector levels;
Entry Points for Scaling Out CSA in Malawi
You all know what CSA is all about so no need to talk about it here
You all know what CSA is all about so no need to talk about it here
You all know what CSA is all about so no need to talk about it here
Given these premises and acknowledging progress within the political environment (next slide)
Given these premises and acknowledging progress within the political environment (next slide)
You all know what CSA is all about so no need to talk about it here
Felt the need of linking research with policy and real stuff done in the field.
What is real stuff in the field? Investments made and farmers switching from conventional into CSA.
In a resource based management approach we then back-casted and thought ok: what do you need to prepare an investment proposal well done and have policy makers and stakeholder buying in and really investing on things?
We needed to find the really best bet options and convince policy makers and donors of those. But first we also needed to be convinced.
How would we do that?
Get stakeholders involved up-front and always engaged through dialogue and active participation.
By providing solid and scientific evidence of which we wanted to be convinced ourselves.
You all know what CSA is all about so no need to talk about it here
The factors that drive adoption of any one of the practices analysed are distinct, thus
Adoption of any one practice is conditioned by whether another practice has been adopted or not. Some practices are complementary others are substitutes
Implications for understanding and overcoming barriers to selection for each practice, distinguishing structural aspects such as exposure from potential interventions at the household or systemic levels linked to adaptive capacity.
The first finding is based on the analysis of various climate related effects over time and space for Malawi which indicated highly heterogeneous distribution of effects even within a relatively small country such as Malawi. These climate effects have important impacts on which practices are selected and ultimately on their yield benefits. Our results show that farmers in areas of higher mean rainfall and lower maximum temperatures tend to use more inorganic fertilizer, while those in areas of delayed onset of rainfall and higher maximum temperatures were more likely to have SLM practices. Climate risk clearly plays an important role in determining the practices selected. We find that greater climate variability as represented by the coefficient of variation of rainfall and temperature increases adoption of risk-reducing inputs such as SLM measures, but reduce the use of inputs (such as inorganic fertilizer) with riskier benefits under these conditions.
You all know what CSA is all about so no need to talk about it here
You all know what CSA is all about so no need to talk about it here
The geographical distribution of the climate impacts in Malawi measured by these variables over the period 1985-2012
As can be seen, there are significance differences in terms of rainfall variability across the three geographical regions in Malawi. Districts in the southern region generally have higher exposure to climate impacts relative to those in central and northern Malawi, with lower levels of mean rainfall,
You all know what CSA is all about so no need to talk about it here. To identify practices that would be suitable for each context you need to look at these three pillars through engaging policy makers, farmers’union and other relevant stakeholders.