The Supersonic Business Jet nears

Middle East Corporate Aviation Summit (MECAS 2015) – GCAS / Al Bateen Executive Airport Abu Dhabi, UAE
0© 2015 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | Aeropodium MECAS Conference Abu Dhabi 13.05.15
‘JOIN THE DEBATE’
THE SUPERSONIC BUSINESS JET NEARS
THE NEXT MUST HAVE FOR THE REGION BUSINESS AVIATION MARKET
May 2015
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Source: 1BlueHorizon Group Research
The Supersonic Transport (SST) over 27 years
Aérospatiale-BAC Concorde
First Flight 2nd March 1969
Capacity: 92–120 passengers (128 in high-density layout)
Tupolev Tu-144
First flight 31st December 1968
Capacity: 140 passengers (11st class & 129 tourist class)
 Normally perceived as a privilege of the rich, the aircraft is
regarded as an aviation icon and an engineering marvel;
 Concorde was jointly developed and produced by Aérospatiale
and the British Aircraft Corporation (BAC) under treaty;
 First flown in 1969, Concorde entered service in 1976 and
continued commercial flights for 27 years;
 On 25 July 2000, Air France Flight 4590 crashed in Gonesse after
departing from Paris-Charles de Gaulle. Early 2003, Air France
and British Airways simultaneously announced that they will retire
Concorde, the last commercial flight on 26 November 2003;
 A total of 20 aircraft were built in France and the United Kingdom;
six of these were prototypes and development aircraft. Seven
each were delivered to Air France and British Airways.
 The development of the Tu-144 is closely related to industrial
espionage against the French company Aérospatiale, The
frequent comparisons to Concorde led to the Tu-144 being
referred to as ‘Concordski’ (by Westerners)’;
 The Tu-144 first went supersonic on 5 June 1969, and on 26 May
1970 became the first commercial transport to exceed Mach 2;
 A Tu-144 crashed in 1973 at the Paris Air Show, delaying its
further development. The aircraft was introduced into passenger
service on 1 November 1977, almost two years after Concorde. In
May 1978, another Tu-144 (an improved version, named Tu-
144D) crashed in a test flight while being delivered, and the
passenger fleet was permanently grounded after only 55
scheduled flights;
 A total of 16 airworthy Tu-144 airplanes were built.

Lessons learned from the two SST precursors
 Development costs: Airbus, would simply not have existed or have been as successful a company that it is today, have
Concorde never made it off the drawing board. the initial high outlays by the respective governments was the foundation of the
European aviation industry that we have today, and this is all thanks to Concorde, and the skills and knowledge that this brought.
 Airframe: Tu-144 suffered of major design issues with cracked at stress levels below what the part was supposed to withstand. In
retrospect, it is apparent that the Tu-144 suffered from a rush in the design process to the detriment of thoroughness and quality, and
this rush to get airborne exacted a heavy penalty later
 Cabin noise: A problem for Tu-144 passengers during flights was the very high level of noise inside the cabin. The noise came
partially from the engines and partially from the air conditioning and the aircraft skin cooling system.
 Environmental: Opposition to Concorde’s noise, particularly on the east coast of the United States, forged a new political
agenda on both sides of the Atlantic, with scientists and technology experts across a multitude of industries beginning to take the
environmental and social impact more seriously. Concorde produced nitrogen oxides in its exhaust, which, despite complicated
interactions with other ozone-depleting chemicals, are understood to result in degradation to the ozone layer at the stratospheric
altitudes it cruised.
 Limited routes: Concorde does not fly supersonically over land as the sonic boom would not be socially acceptable, so most
routes are transcontinental.
 Economic (in)efficiency: Because of the premium rate that passengers would pay to fly on Concorde (First Class +20%),
the aircraft only needed to be around half full to break even and turn an operating profit (Concorde typically flew 17 miles per U.S.
gallon / 14 L/100 km per passenger). Air France's Concorde operation had been a money-losing venture, but it is claimed that the
airplane had been kept in service as a matter of national pride. British Airways Concorde operation made a net average profit of about
£30m a year.
On its 55 scheduled flights, Tu-144s transported 3,194 passengers, an average of 58 passengers per flight (they also limited passenger
load to minimize the impact and political fallout of a possible crash)…
 Safety: Up until the crash of AF4590 in 2000, Concorde had been considered among the world's safest planes.
The Soviet leadership made a political decision to enter the Tu-144 into passenger service in November 1977 despite receiving testing
reports indicating that the Tu-144 airframe was unsafe and not airworthy for regular service.
 Crash: The crashes contributed to the end of both aircraft's careers!
Air France Flight 4590 (MSN 203 | F-BTSC) scheduled to fly from Charles de Gaulle Airport to John F. Kennedy International Airport.
At the Paris Air Show on 3 June 1973, the development program of the Tu-144 suffered severely when the first Tu-144S production
airliner (Reg CCCP-77102) crashed. Though the decision to cancel the Tu-144S passenger service came a few days after the Tu-144D
(Reg CCCP-77111) crashed during the test flight on 23 May 1978.
.

Lack of Speed Innovation for 60 years
Note 1: First flight of the Wright Flyer I, December 17, 1903, Orville piloting, Wilbur running at wingtip
Note2: The Mach number is named after Austrian physicist and philosopher Ernst Mach
Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Research & Analysis
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Year
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
4800
Km/h
SubsonicTransSupersonic
Propeller age
500
Sound Speed
Mach 2
Subsonic Jet age (to Mach 0.935)
1100
World
War II
Tu-144 1968 - 78
Concorde 1969 – 2003
Mach
2.03
Today
North American X-15
1959 – 1968
7,274 km/h or Mach 6.72
1225 km/h (343 m/sec) at 15°C
Bell X1
14.10.1947
Lockheed A-12 1967 - 68
Lockheed SR-71 1968 - 98
Mach 3.3
SSBJ
Next SST
Mach 5+
Next Generation
Supersonic Transport
Hyper Sonic Transport
(capable of orbit or interstellar travel)

Source: 1BlueHorizon Group Research & Analysis
Subsonic: 1952, the Jet enters the civilian world
6 The jet engine entered the propulsion scene at a time when conventional reciprocating engines and
propellers were reaching their physical limits.
6 The first purpose-built jet airliner was the British de Havilland Comet which first flew in 1949 and
entered service on 2nd May 1952. Also developed in 1949 was the Avro Canada C102 Jetliner, and
although it never reached production, the term jetliner caught on as a generic term for all
passenger jet aircraft.
6 These first jet airliners were followed some years later by the Sud Aviation Caravelle, Tupolev
Tu-104 (2nd in service), Boeing 707, Douglas DC-8, and Convair 880.
6 National prestige was attached to developing prototypes and bringing these first generation designs
into service. There was also a strong nationalism in purchasing policy, such that the Boeing and
Douglas products became closely associated with Pan Am, while BOAC ordered British made
Comets.
6 Most airliners today are jet airliners because jet aircraft are capable of efficiently functioning at high
altitudes and high speeds. Historically, airliners used the simplest turbojet engine. As time passed,
turbofans became the most popular propulsion system due to lower noise and greater fuel
efficiency at moderate speeds.
Speed, Size and Travel comfort were the Innovation Ambition

Note: Cessna Aircraft Company delivered its first new Citation X+ the world’s fastest civil aircraft (Mach 0.935), just beating the G650’s Mach 0.925
Source: 1BlueHorizon Group Research & Analysis, http://robbreport.com/aviation/cessna-citation-x-enters-service-worlds-fastest-business-jet
The 16 business jets that shaped the industry
Business jets have improved enormously in the past 50 years, from gas-guzzling go-getters to today’s highly efficient,
long-legged luxury liners and tiny personal jets. During the first half-century of the business jet industry,
manufacturers tried out a variety of types and configurations. Many failed, but many others have endured in derivative
and upgraded versions. What will be interesting to observe in the coming decades is whether business jet
manufacturers continue to innovate, not just in cabin and cockpit appointments where technology changes rapidly, but
in basic configuration and in engine and aerodynamic development.
In chronological order, based on when production began, here are 16 aircraft models that played a key role in shaping
today’s business aviation environment:
1. Lockheed Jetstar (1961 - 1978) 9. Gulfstream GV (1997 - 2002)
2. Sabreliner (1963 - 1983) 10. Cessna Citation X (1996 to present)
3. De Havilland Hawker 125 (1964 to present) 11. Bombardier Global family (1999 to present)
4. Israel Aircraft Industries Jet (1965 -1987) 12. Beechcraft Premier I (2001 - 2005)
5. Dassault Mystère (Falcon) 20 (1965 - 1988) 13. Eclipse 500 (2006 - 2008)
6. Lear 24 (1966 - 1979) 14. Dassault Falcon 7X (2007 to present)
7. Gulfstream GII (1967 - 1977) 15. Embraer Phenom 300 (2009 to present)
8. Cessna Citation 500/I (1969 - 1985) 16. Gulfstream 650 (2009 to present)
Similar Top Speed and nothing revolutionary… YES the recent are High-end

Source: 1BlueHorizon Group Research & Analysis, SVP Sales NetJets 2015
Some of the world's top business jet flights
 In Silicon Valley, the business jet business soars: The most popular routes right now include Silicon Valley to
Santa Monica, and San Jose to Napa. That flight takes about 25 minutes versus three or four hours in a car if
commuters get stuck in bad traffic. For residents who value their time, and who boast deep pockets, there's a
solution: business jet operators;
 An analysis of the world's top business-jet flights tracked by NetJets found that the most common business-jet
route in the world is between New York and Southern Florida – ‘It's mainly a function of population and the
concentration of wealth’ . New York and Florida account for one-fifth of "ultra-high-net-worth" Americans, or those
who are worth $30 million or more and would be more likely to fly private. California accounts for another 20
percent of this group;
 The other most common routes are mainly between money centers: Southern California to the San Francisco
Bay area, followed by New York to Boston;
 In Europe, business jet traffic also follows the money. The most common route is between London and Geneva.
Flights from London to Nice, France, were the second-most common, followed by Paris to London;
 In Asia similar to Europe, business jet traffic follows the money. The fastest-growing route in business jet traffic are
from Singapore to ‘Middle-East’ or Singapore to ‘China’;
 The fastest-growing route in business-jet traffic, is Nice to New York, followed by Maiquetia (Venezuela) to Miami,
and then Dubai to London.
Today modern business jets are performing extremely well, excepted on
long range still too much time consuming for businessmen and ‘migrating
birds’, private jet setters looking for better weather…

Source: 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis
The ultimate SSBJ Ambition is the sky mobility
3,5 to 4hr
Illustrative examples:
1. Abu Dhabi (AUH) to London (LHR)
3,427nm (5,516km) in 7 to 8hr (back and forth)
2. Abu Dhabi (AUH) to Singapore (SIN)
3,674nm (5,914km) in 8hr (back and forth)
Present Day trip circle
‘Day Trip
in Europe
or Southeast
Asia’
Day trip circle by SSBJ

Challenge for Supersonic Business Jet (SSBJ)
6 Efficiency challenges
- Supersonic cruise efficiency
- Light weight and durability at high temperature
6 Environmental challenges
- Airport noise reduction
- Sonic boom suppression
- Reduction of high altitude emissions
6 General performance challenges
- Aero-propulso-servo-elastic (APSE) challenges
- System integration and optimization
6 Integration of supersonic aircraft into commercial air traffic and the next generation air
transportation system (NextGen)
6 Building new regulatory framework for overland supersonic flight
- Overcoming public opposition
- Developing appropriate environmental standards
- Formulating and adopting new regulations
6 Accomplishing all of the above in a way that makes the cost of supersonic
travel comparable to that of traditional subsonic air travel
6 Activation of potential market (Mobility Innovation in the Sky)
The key challenges to overcome in order to make the SSBJ a reality span a range of issues:

Mastering the Low Sonic Boom appears crucial
Even it has been widely recognized that the technological challenges are formidable, the
challenges that have to do with policy issues and public opinion are not to be
underestimated…
The problem of overcoming ‘noise pollution’
created by the sonic boom is arguably the most
challenging in creating the Supersonic Business
Jet (SSBJ). At supersonic speeds, pressure
waves from the nose and the tail of the aircraft
coalesce into two shock waves that propagate in a
cone behind the aircraft, and at the ground level
are perceived as a loud sound (or two loud sounds
heard in rapid succession) usually called sonic
boom. At long distances from the aircraft (far field)
such as at the ground level, the pressure waves
are more pronounces as two shocks from the
nose and the tail of the aircraft because all the
other pressure waves end up being combined into
them. The resulting acoustic disturbance is an
environmental concern and a violation of U.S. FAA
regulations.

Source: 1BlueHorizon Group Research, Project websites
Design elements to shape the low Sonic Boom
Natural Laminar Flow Wing
Low drag Wing-fuselage
Advanced Air-Intake
Upper Fuselage Engine Installation
(Low-Boom)
Low-Boom Fuselage
Advanced Cockpit
Fuel Transfer System
Low-Boom Tail
Comfortable Cabin Space Composites Structure
Visibility
(no forward vision)

Initially SSBJ towards Quiet Supersonic Flight?
Artist rendering of a preliminary NASA design for a low-boom
demonstration aircraft, exhibiting a characteristic slender body
and carefully shaped swept wings (2013)
SSBJ and later on ‘QSST’?
(Quiet Supersonic Transport)
The jet is able to distribute the shockwaves generated at near-
Mach speeds along its hull, thus silencing the boom a hundredfold.
Supersonic Aerospace International (SAI) has resurrected the quiet
Supersonic Transport (QSST) after a three-year hiatus and
relaunched the concept as much larger, Boeing 737-sized aircraft
to operate as an all-first-class airliner.

Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Distance
(nm)
0
4
8
12
16
20
Flight
hour
Time saving effect by range of SSBJ
8,000
Abu Dhabi (AUH)
to New York (JFK)
6,854nm (11,000km)
∆ >4h (∆ >30%)
Abu Dhabi (AUH)
to Zurich (ZRH)
2,967nm (4,776km)
∆ <3h (∆ <50%)
‘It’s about Time…’

Source: 1BlueHorizon Group Research, Project websites alphabetical
Overview of current and former SSBJ Projects
The Aerion AR2 is a concept for a
supersonic business jet, designed by
Aerion Corporation (Reno, Nevada).
Capacity: 8 – 12 passengers
Length: 49 m (160 ft)
Wingspan: 21 m (70 ft)
Speed: Mach 1.6 (laminar flow tech.)
Range: 9,260 km / 5,000 nm
Powerplant: 3x Turbofans
Status: In development – Target 2022
Unit cost: US$ 100 mio (estimate)
Aerion AR2
The SonicStar is a High Supersonic VVIP
Business Jet Aircraft powered by a S-
MAGJET; Supersonic-Magnetic Advanced
Generation Jet Electric Turbine.
Around the world in 5 hours!
Capacity: 10 - 20 passengers
Speed: Mach 4.4 (5,522 km/h)
Powerplant: 2x SonicBlue S-MAGJET
Status: On development – Target 2021
HyperMach SonicStar
The Lockheed Martin Skunk Works began
developing the QSST in May 2001 (Reno,
Nevada), relaunched the concept in 2013.
Capacity: 20 - 30 passengers
Length: ---
Wingspan: ---
Speed: Mach 1.6 to 1.8 (boomless)
Range: 8,300 km / 4,500 nm
Powerplant: 2x engine (GE, P&W or RR)
Status: In development – Target 2018
Unit cost: US$ 80 mio (estimate)
SAI Quiet Supersonic Transport
The Spike S-512 is a projected supersonic
business jet, designed by Spike Aerospace
(Boston, Massachusetts).
Capacity: 18 passengers
Speed: Mach 1.6 (cruise speed)
Range: 7.400 km / 4,000 nm
Powerplant: 2x Pratt & Whitney turbofan
Status: Under development – Target 2018
Unit cost: US$ 60 to 80 mio (estimate)
Spike S-512
In the early 1990s, Gulfstream Aerospace
and the Sukhoi Design Bureau of Moscow
began a joint effort to develop a supersonic
small business jet, code named the S-21.
Length: 37.8 m (124 ft)
Wingspan: 19.9 m (65 ft)
Speed: Mach 1.4
Range: 7,400 km / 4,600 nm
Powerplant: 3x Aviadvigatel turbofan
Status: Sukhoi continued working on it (?)
Sukhoi-Gulfstream S-21
The Tupolev Tu-444 is a concept (2014)
for a supersonic business jet from Russia.
Wingspan: 16.2 m (53 ft)
Speed: Mach 2 (2,125 km/h)
Range: 8,500 km / 4,660 nm
Powerplant : 2x NPO Saturn turbofan
Status: Concept - Potentially cancelled
Tupolev Tu-444

Source: 1BlueHorizon Group Research, http://www.aerionsupersonic.com/full-video.aspx
The ‘AS2’ appears the most advanced to date
 Aerion’s Supersonic Ambitions Are Boosted by Airbus: Airbus will be supporting Aerion in specifying and
sourcing propulsion systems, airframe structures, avionics and other equipment during the design phase…
 Efficiency equals flexibility — the AS2 aims to achieve the same fuel efficiency in the subsonic regime as when
supersonic. This is quite innovative in comparison with the iconic Concorde which burned much more fuel at
subsonic speeds… Outside U.S. borders, and while above populated areas, the AS2 can operate at speeds
between Mach 1.1 and 1.2 without creating a sonic boom on the ground (a phenomenon known as Mach cutoff).
Over water, pilots can open the throttle and fly as fast as Mach 1.6…
 Similar to a Swiss Knife — The AS2 combine high-subsonic, low-supersonic and high-speed supersonic cruise
in one flight, so it’s possible to fly route segments at three different cruise speeds in one trip… as in our Chicago
to Frankfurt example below…
‘… as intermediate stage?’

Market Outlook for Supersonic Business Jet
SSBJ? Don't hold your breath says Gulfstream.... Publicly at least, the major OEMs continue to
remain highly skeptical over the SSBJ market, while supersonic flight overland remains illegal in the
USA… That puts a dampener on what the total market could be!
‘There won’t be room for four supersonic business jet makers…’
Market Study Demand for SSBJ Comments
Gulfstream Aerospace 350 over 10 years Not including ‘fractional ownership’
Aerion Corporation 600 over 20 years Considering US$ 110 mio as expected liste price
SAI - Supersonic Aerospace International 300 over 10 years
1BlueHorizon Group 800 over 20 years At max US$ 80 mio list price
1BlueHorizon Group 200 over 20 years At over US$ 100 mio list price
 If the price differential is relatively small to existing subsonic business jets business, many if not most of the
customers would prefer supersonic to the traditional subsonic travel…
 At 20% difference in airfare, the estimate SSBJ demand a year appears to be very conservative…
 Despite pockets of economic turmoil, the number of billionaires around the world expanded to record 1,826,
including 290 newcomers as per the American business magazine Forbes in Marc 2015: alone 25% hail from
China, which produced a world-leading 71 newcomers… a clear market for the SSBJ and the Middle East also…
 The demand clearly exists, but the aircraft to meet the demand remain to be developed...

16© 2015 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved
1BHG | Aeropodium MECAS Conference Abu Dhabi 13.05.15
SHOUKRAN - THANK YOU
Any clarifications or questions regarding this document should be addressed to:
LEONARD FAVRE
Partner, Group Managing Director
1BlueHorizon Group
P.O. Box 34154 M +971 50 6164007 (U.A.E.)
Abu Dhabi M +41 79 2080256 (Switzerland)
United Arab Emirates leof007
leo@1bluehorizon.com
www.1bluehorizon.com
Abu Dhabi | Bern | London | Montreal | Moscow
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Disclaimer
LEONARD FAVRE - Partner, Managing Director Email: leo@1bluehorizon.com
Abu Dhabi (U.A.E.) & Bern (Switzerland)
A strategic thinker with 20+ years progressive experience as experienced senior management advisor or in senior executive roles in the
Aviation, Aerospace & Defense industry. He started his involvement in this particular field of business as Chief Financial Officer of the Swiss
Ministry of Defense and later on when the Swiss National carrier Swissair collapse in 2001 as one of the Swiss Ministry of Economy adviser.
Professional background (highlights)
 Chairman Advisor for an Airline Start-up and MRO infrastructure in the North Africa Region
 Chief Restructuring Officer for a family conglomerate, managing a fleet of more than 20 aircraft (wet lease, charter and re-marketing);
 Director Enterprise Improvement for AlixPartner LLP, part of the core team restructuring a major Middle East airline for fleet and strategy;
 Vice-President Business Development & Strategy for Maximus Air in Abu Dhabi, where he managed the wet lease fleet (ACMI & Charter) and
developed it into a leading Middle-East brand through the improvement of operational capabilities and fleet management;
 Senior Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton where he directed successfully, major start-up airline projects in the Middle-East and Europe.
Note: Detailed References upon request

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Wataniya Airways - Chairman Mr. Abdulsalam Al
Bahar with Mrs Ghaida Abdul Latif, vice chairman –
director general & CEO of Syrian Arab Airlines.
Flydubai - CEO Mr. Ghaith Al Ghaith
Gulf Air - Ex CEO Samer Majali
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Economic development Corporate governance
structure
 Portfolio analysis
 Investment strategy
 The family element
 Performance Management
 Organization Improvement
 Privatization
 Aerospace cluster
 Logistic, Cargo, GH
Airport
Family conglomerate
 Restructuring MRO,
Aerospace & Defence
 Performance Management
 Organization and Change
Management
 Pricing and Revenue
Management
 Market Forecasting
 Branding, Marketing and
Sales
General aviation
Aerospace & Defence
 Feasibility, Business Plan
 Operations Improvement
 Merger & Acquisitions
 Due Diligence
 Fleet Planning
 Business review
 Cluster strategy
 Project Management office
 Public–private partnership
(PPP)
Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group | Core competencies in the main three Sectors
… and our clients well recognize this!

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works successfully on all
levels: Board level, middle
management,
implementation"
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“1BHG has
convinced us
through it's excellent
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technology
expertise"
"The 1BHG team
knows perfectly well
how to push the
necessary change"
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oriented and their cooperation
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very qualified people
who really know a lot
about our industry"
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