Martin Shield's Economic update from FCBR's January 2012 Membership meeting.

1. Jobs Jobs Jobs
Jobs Jobs Jobs
Professor Martin Shields
Regional Economics Institute
Regional Economics Institute
Colorado State University

2. Summary
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
J b J b J b J b J b J b J b J b J b J b
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs

3. The Situation
The Situation
• Larimer County has 1,400 fewer jobs than it did 3
a e Cou ty as , 00 e e jobs t a t d d 3
years ago
– Over the past 12 months it has added 1,800
• The number of unemployed in the region has
increased by nearly 3,600 since October 2008
– Larimer County and the City of Fort Collins employ
about 3,800 workers
• Larimer County has experienced a 11 percent
Larimer County has experienced a 11 percent
drop in real median household income over the
p
past 10 years
y

4. Larimer Employment Totals 99 Percent
of Pre‐Recessionary Levels
f l
102%
100%
98%
96%
United States
94%
Great Recession Larimer County
92%
90%
88%
Jan‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
Sep‐11
May‐07
May‐08
May‐09
May‐10
May‐11
M
M
M
M
M
S
S
S
S
S
Source: Current Employment Survey

5. The Number of People Out of Work
Remains Incredibly High
d bl h
16,000
14,000
ployed
12,000
r of Unemp
10,000
8,000
6,000
6 000
Number
4,000
2,000
0
Apr‐06
Jan‐01
Aug‐01
Mar‐02
May‐03
Dec‐03
Jul‐04
Feb‐05
Sep‐05
Nov‐06
Jun‐07
Jan‐08
Aug‐08
Mar‐09
May‐10
Dec‐10
Jul‐11
Oct‐02
Oct‐09
J
J
O
O
M
M
A
M
M
D
D
A
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/LAUS A

6. Med
dian Weeks
s Unemploy
yed (US)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
J
Jul‐87
Dec‐88
May‐90
O
Oct‐91
M
Mar‐93
Aug‐94
Source: Current Population Survey
an‐96
Ja
Ju
un‐97
Nov‐98
A
Apr‐00
Se
ep‐01
Fe
eb‐03
J
Jul‐04
Dec‐05
May‐07
O
Oct‐08
M
Mar‐10
Aug‐11
Nationally, Median Unemployment
h
Duration Remains Near 45 year High

7. Th
housands o
of Jobs
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
Jan‐0
01
Aug‐0
01
Mar‐0
02
b b l
Oct‐0
02
May‐0
03
Dec‐0
03
Source: Current Employment Survey
Jul‐0
04
Feb‐0
05
Sep‐0
05
Apr‐0
06
l
Nov‐0
06
Jun‐0
07
Jan‐0
08
Aug‐0
08
l
Mar‐0
09
Oct‐0
09
May‐1
10
Dec‐1
10
Jobs below Potential Employment
Jul‐1
11
The Jobs Gap: Larimer County 5,000

8. Leading Growth Sectors
Health, Professional Services and Manufacturing
Ambulatory Health Care Services
Ambulatory Health Care Services 409
Administrative and Support Services 351
Hospitals 267
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 254
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 226
Food Services and Drinking Places 188
Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 167
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 145
Accommodation 114
Machinery Manufacturing 107

9. wned Housi
Privately Ow ing Starts:
1‐Un
nit Structur
res
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ja
an‐88 350
Ap
pr‐89
Jul‐90
Source: US Census Bureau
Oct‐91
Ja
an‐93
Ap
pr‐94
Jul‐95
Oct‐96
kf
an‐98
Ja
Ap
pr‐99
Jul‐00
Oct‐01
an‐03
Ja
Ap
pr‐04
Jul‐05
Oct‐06
l
What About Housing Starts?
an‐08
Ja
Ap
pr‐09
A Recent Uptick from a Low Place
Jul‐10
Oct‐11

10. Housing Prices Still Stagnant
Housing Prices Still Stagnant
12
e in FHFA
10
use Price Indexes
8
ent Change
6
4
uarter Perce
A‐Level Hou
2
0
Four‐Qu
MSA
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
‐2
‐4
4
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

11. Industry Watch
Industry Watch
• Poised to grow
Poised to grow • Continued struggles
Continued struggles
– Energy – Government
– Health care – Financial activities
– Professional & business – Information
services

12. The Important Economic Issues
The Important Economic Issues
• The recovery will continue though at a
The recovery will continue, though at a
lackluster pace
– And will depend on national and international
And will depend on national and international
events
• Unemployment will remain relatively high
Unemployment will remain relatively high
– But well below the US average
• F lli
Falling real household income has had large
lh h ld i h h dl
negative effects on the region

13. I HATE to do this….
I HATE to do this….
• The region might add between 1 900 and
The region might add between 1,900 and
2,300 jobs in 2012
• The local unemployment rate could fall to near
The local unemployment rate could fall to near
5 percent
– B t th
But the national rate will probably still be aroung 8
ti l t ill b bl till b 8
percent
• B t th
But the real challenge remains adding jobs
l h ll i ddi j b
with good wages