This document discusses using machine learning and data analytics to model urban systems and inform urban planning. It describes two case studies: (1) using travel data and machine learning to classify commuter types, and (2) using land use, amenities, and transit data to model ridership and evaluate planning scenarios. The goal is to develop iterative modeling frameworks that integrate observations, reconstruct data, and test scenarios to help optimize urban policy and infrastructure decisions.
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Machine Learning and the Smart City
1. Humans + Machines: Using artificial intelligence to power your people
February 18 - 19, 2016 | Penthouse, TwentyFour Seven McKinley
Machine Learning and the
Smart City
Erika Fille T. Legara, Ph.D. | @eflegara
www.erikalegara.net
Scientist,Complex Systems
Institute of High Performance Computing
2. • Complexity science
• Data analytics maturity
• Modeling framework
• Machine learning methods in urban planning
– Commuter behaviour research
– Land-use and transport planning research
– Integrated transport model
Outline
3. COMPLEXITY SCIENCE
looking into the
SCIENCE of CITIES,
Computational Social Science,
Computational Biology & Ageing, and
Complex Networks.
http://www.a-star.edu.sg/ihpc/Research/Computing-Science-CS/Complex-Systems-Group-CxSy-Group/Overview.aspx
5. An interactive visual, demand modelling, and decision-support tool.!
Bus Arrivals
Waiting time ½ x headway2 =
the area of each
triangle
time
headway
headway
EWT
SWT
AWT
Modeling and
Simulations of
the Rapid Transit
System
Reliability
Analysis of Bus
Arrivals
Lightless
intersection
control numerical
simulations
Land-Use &
Transport
Modeling
Crowd Modeling
and Simulations
Characterizing
Public Transport
Commuters
Resilience of
Commuter
Encounter
Networks
Aging, Biology &
Computing:
Healthspan
Identification of
Regulators in a
Human Gene
Network
Urban Morphology
Dynamical Model of
Twitter Activity
Profiles
Diffusion &
Cascading
Failures on
Multiplex
Networks
6. Evolution & Adaptation
Artificial NN
Evolutionary
computation
Genetic
algorithms
AI / Artificial life Evo-Devo
Machine learningEvolutionary
robotics
Networks
SNA
Motifs
Graph Theory Small-world
CentralityCommunity
Detection
Robustness &
Vulnerability
Adaptive networks
SF networks
Nonlinear Dynamics
ODE
Iterative maps
Stability analysisAttraction
Phase space
ChaosPopulation dynamics
Time series analysis
Collective Behavior
Collective intelligence
Social dynamics
Herd mentality
Phase transition
Synchronization
Ant colony
optimization
Particle swarm
optimization
ABM
Self-organized criticality
Game Theory
Prisoner’s
Dilemma
Irrational behavior
Bounded
rationality
Evolutionary game
theory
Cooperation vs
competition
Pattern Formation
Percolation
Reaction-diffusion
CA
Spatial ecology
Partial DE
Systems Theory
Feedbacks
Information theory
Entropy
Computation theory
Autopoiesis
Cybernetics
COMPLEXITY
SCIENCE
Adapted from: Hiroki Sayama
10. • Where should the next residential area be?
• Where should we build the next train station?
• What should be the path of the new train line?
• Is the color-coding scheme effective?
• What are the effects of U-turns along highways?
• When is road-widening effective, when is it not?
Urban Planning
11. Implementing policies based on
intuition alone can be expensive, time
consuming, and sometimes
catastrophic.
15. Which typesofcommutersaretraveling?
Case Study1
• EF Legara and C Monterola, "Identifying Passenger Type
from Travel Routine," 2015 Conference on Complex
Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, September 2015.
• Inferring Passenger Type from Commuter Travel Matrices,
EF Legara and C Monterola, submitted 2016.
16. • Quantify “natural tendencies” of commuters
• Understand the structure of the commuting public
• Different urban-related policies affect different kinds of
commuters
• Awareness of which commuter types are traveling, ads,
service announcements, and surveys, among others,
can be made more targeted spatiotemporally
Motivation
17. • 14-weeks travel data
• Randomly sampled anonymized ID’s
• 10 million journeys
• Three Passenger Types:
• Adult
• Student
• Senior citizen
Dataset Smart Fare Card
Tap In Tap Out
18. Morning
Peak Hour
Evening
Peak Hour
# Commuters Travelling
Hour of Day
Travel Demand Distribution
Observations
Reconstruct
Observations
Scenario
Modeling
+
An IterativeProcess
EF Legara and C Monterola, "Identifying Passenger Type from Travel Routine," 2015 Conference on Complex Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, September 2015.
EF Legara and C Monterola, arXiv:1509.01199 [physics.soc-ph].
19. Travel Demand
Travel demand curve for different types vary.
Adults – two peaks
“working hours”
Children – one peak
“half-day classes”
Seniors – plateau-like
“unstructured
schedules ”
Morning
Peak Hour
Evening
Peak Hour
#"Commuters""Travelling"
Hour"of"Day"
# Commuters Travelling
Hour of Day
EF Legara and C Monterola, "Identifying Passenger Type from Travel Routine," 2015 Conference on Complex Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, September 2015.
EF Legara and C Monterola, arXiv:1509.01199 [physics.soc-ph].
20. #"Commuters""Travelling"
Hour"of"Day"
Travel ModeTravel Demand
Travel demand curve for different types vary. Ratio of bus to RTS usage is
more pronounced for Senior Citizens.
Hint to the features to include in the classification model.
Travel Demand and Mode of Transport
EF Legara and C Monterola, "Identifying Passenger Type from Travel Routine," 2015 Conference on Complex Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, September 2015.
EF Legara and C Monterola, arXiv:1509.01199 [physics.soc-ph].
21. m-slice (1min)
h-slice (1hr)
1 2 3 4
4 AM 12 Midnight12 Noon
…
6 PM
0 6051
…
0 602
h = 3
h = 4
…
0 6042
…
0 17
h = 15
h = 16
5953
15 16
Δρ = 9
Δρ = 18
Δρ = 17 Δρ = 6
17 18 19 20
14weeks
WeekdaysSaturdaysSundays
42weeks
20 hours
Hypothetical
Journeys
EF Legara and C Monterola, "Identifying Passenger Type from Travel Routine," 2015 Conference on Complex Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, September 2015.
EF Legara and C Monterola, arXiv:1509.01199 [physics.soc-ph], 2015.
22. Eigentravel Matrix (“travel DNA”)
1 Matrix :: 840 Features
EF Legara and C Monterola, "Identifying Passenger Type from Travel Routine," 2015 Conference on Complex Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, September 2015.
EF Legara and C Monterola, arXiv:1509.01199 [physics.soc-ph].
26. Eigentravel Matrices
GBM
DRF
SVM
50%-50%
Standard accuracy: 41% , which 25% better than proportional chance criteria
1 Matrix :: 840 Features
SCORE
76%
72%
64%
Models
Trained!
EF Legara and C Monterola, "Identifying Passenger Type from Travel Routine," 2015 Conference on Complex Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, September 2015.
EF Legara and C Monterola, arXiv:1509.01199 [physics.soc-ph].
27. Feature Importance
weekdays
weekdays
Take mean across hours
PEAK HOUR
PEAK HOUR
Top predictor variables are
outside peak hours.
v3
v8
v11
v12
EF Legara and C Monterola, "Identifying Passenger Type from Travel Routine," 2015 Conference on Complex Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, September 2015.
EF Legara and C Monterola, arXiv:1509.01199 [physics.soc-ph].
28. v3"
v8"
v11"
v12"
Predictor Hour of Day Isolated Curve Remarks
v3 0600 hours C-curve Children dominate travel demand
Travel demand highest and narrowest
v8 1100 hours S-curve Working adults in offices
Children/students in classes
Elderlies travelling
v11
v12
1400 hours
1500 hours
A-curve Working adults in offices
Elderlies travelling
Children/students travelling home
Results
29. • Characterized passengers: Adults, Senior, Children
• People are predictable (to some extent)
• Established method to construct distinct commuter matrices
• Travel start time
• Travel duration
• Mode of transport
• Built ML models from 840 features and estimated variables
importances
– GBM (76%), DRF (72%), and SVM (64%)
• Weekday travel features are better predictorsthan weekends.
Case Summary
31. • Evaluate the impact of urban entities (land-use and
amenities) to ridership.
• What are the specific infrastructure or amenity types to
build to improve mobility of citizens?
• Develop a decision-support tool to assess impacts of
land-use configurations on ridership; evaluate “what-if”
scenarios)
Motivation
32. • 1 week travel data (anonymised)
• Tap-in and tap-out
Datasets Smart Fare Card
Tap In Tap Out
34. Datasets Land Use Plan
Source: http://www.mnd.gov.sg/LandUsePlan/theme/default/image/hme_our_land_use_plan.jpg
Source: http://100pp.com.sg/images/LAnd%20Use%20Plan%20to%20Support%20Singapore.jpg
Source: A High Quality Living Environment for All Singaporeans: Land Use Plan to Support Singapore’s Future Population, January 2013
39. Use the surrounding urban entities to estimate travel
demand (# of tap-ins and # of tap-outs).
Prediction
N. Hu, E.F. Legara, K.K. Lee, and C. Monterola, " Interpreting land-use and amenities in public transit ridership: implications in
urban planning," submitted 2015.
40. Scenario Modeling
“Conceptual Plan” (2030) Hypothetical Amenity Increase
N. Hu, E.F. Legara, K.K. Lee, and C. Monterola, " Interpreting land-use and amenities in public transit ridership: implications in
urban planning," submitted 2015.
41. Scenario Modeling: Results
Amenity Increase
N. Hu, E.F. Legara, K.K. Lee, and C. Monterola, " Interpreting land-use and amenities in public transit ridership: implications in
urban planning," submitted 2015.
44. Scenario Modeling: Mathematical + ABM + ML
• EF Legara, KK Lee, GG Hung, and C Monteorla, "Mechanism-based model of a mass rapid transit system: A perspective," Int. J. Mod. Phys. Conf. Ser. 36, 1560011, 2015.
• N Othman, EF Legara, V Selvam, and C Monterola, "A Data-Driven Agent-Based Model of Congestion and Scaling Dynamics of Rapid Transit Systems," J of Computational Science (2015).
• EF Legara, C Monterola, KK Lee, GG Hung, "Critical capacity, travel time delays and travel time distribution of rapid mass transit systems," Physica A 406, pp. 100-106 (2014).
47. “Essentially,
all models are wrong,
but some are useful."
“We are not in the business of
predicting the EXACT futures.“ -EFL
48. Humans + Machines: Using artificial intelligence to power your people
February 18 - 19, 2016 | Penthouse, TwentyFour Seven McKinley
Machine Learning and the
Smart City
Erika Fille T. Legara, Ph.D. | @eflegara
www.erikalegara.net
Scientist,Complex Systems
Institute of High Performance Computing