The “Course Topics” series from Manage Train Learn and Slide Topics is a collection of over 4000 slides that will help you master a wide range of management and personal development skills. The 202 PowerPoints in this series offer you a complete and in-depth study of each topic. This presentation is on "Decision-Taking".

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Decision-Taking
Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
Decision-Taking
THINKING SKILLS

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Decision-Taking
Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
The Course Topics series from Manage Train Learn is a large collection of topics that will help you as a learner
to quickly and easily master a range of skills in your everyday working life and life outside work. If you are a
trainer, they are perfect for adding to your classroom courses and online learning plans.
COURSE TOPICS FROM MTL
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Decision-Taking
Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
ARE YOU READY?
OK, LET’S START!

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Decision-Taking
Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
INTRODUCTION
Managers, team leaders and their staff can take as many as
a hundred or more decisions in the course of a day, each day
and every day. Many of these decisions are, of course, no
more than automatic responses to familiar situations in
which they have to choose between two or three options.
However, from time to time, we all have to take decisions on
which the course of our future and that of others depends.
Then, it is a question of making them carefully, wisely and
with skill.

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
GOOD TIMING
There are two traps which people may fall into when making
decisions: making them too early and making them too late.
Some people make decisions too swiftly and without due
thought. This may be because they are uncomfortable with
the tension that is created when a decision has to be made
but they don't have all the information needed. Instead of
living with tension, they make the decision before time.
"Swift decisions are not sure." (Sophocles)
Other people delay making decisions because they fear
making a mistake or fear the changes that will result.
"He who considers too much will perform little." (Schiller)
The best decisions are hot-iron decisions: those that are
well-timed, which you make when the iron is hot and the
time is right.

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Thinking Skills
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KNOWING WHERE TO STRIKE
Decisions should be made with the precision that comes
from knowledge and knowing where and when to strike.
A famous shipyard in the 1970's. One day before the maiden
voyage of their biggest ship to date.
She wouldn't start. Something wrong with the boiler.
Checked every nut, tightened every bolt. Still nothing.
They sent for an expert. A guy from Hamburg.
Scratched his beard. Said: "My fee's £1000."
The foreman nodded frantically.
"Stand back," said the expert.
He gave the boiler an almighty wallop with his hammer.
It hiccupped, burped, chugged into life. The foreman stood
aghast. "£1000 for one thump with a hammer?"
"No," said the expert. "For one thump with the hammer,
one pound. For knowing where to thump, nine hundred and
ninety nine."

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
NO DECISION IS PERFECT
Decisions are a mix of what we currently want (goals); what
we currently know (information); what we believe
(outcomes); and what we can do (actions). There is no
guarantee in any decision. No decision is perfect.
Goals: half-way through the implementation of a decision
we may realise we don't want to achieve that goal after all.
Information: after taking a decision, we may stumble across
more information which, had we had it before, would have
totally changed our decision.
Outcomes: since outcomes depend on an educated guess
about the future, we might guess wrong.
Actions: a successful decision depends as much on
motivation and skill in implementation as on getting it right.

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
BALANCED DECISION-TAKING
There are three balancing acts to be aware of in taking a
good decision. They are:
1. Care and not care
Do all your worrying before the decision and once a decision
has been taken, stop worrying.
2. Think and act
Too much thinking puts off the action; too much action may
be at the expense of thought. Seek the right balance.
3. Look before you leap and leap before you look
See the possible risks of your decision but, once decided,
take the plunge with courage.
Eric Aronson tells this riddle. If 5 birds were sitting on a wire
and one of them decides to fly away, how many are left?
The answer is 5. One bird’s decision to fly away doesn’t
mean it did!

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
FIVE DON'TS
You should only make decisions when you have to.
Here are five "don'ts" to guide you.
1. DON'T make a decision unless you have two or more
equally valid options
2. DON'T make a decision if it's somebody else's
responsibility
3. DON'T make a decision unless there is disagreement
4. DON'T make a decision about irrelevant matters
5. DON'T make a decision if it can't be turned into action.
"If there's one thing I've learned in politics, it is: never make
a decision until you have to." (Margaret Thatcher)

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
HOW TO MAKE A DECISION
There are no guaranteed ways to make a right decision. The
nearest we can hope to get is to apply the most appropriate
of the available decision-making models.
The following are seven models:
1. decision trees
2. weighing up the pros and cons
3. tossing a coin
4. the equivalent urn and probability wheel
5. decision-making models: such as the rainbow, six thinking
shoes and six thinking hats
6. on the hoof
7. instinct and operacy.
"No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that
all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions
are about the future." (Ian Wilson)

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
DECISION TREES
Decision trees are diagrams which consider the different
options of a decision by weighing up the likely outcomes
and considering how desirable and probable they are.
Let's say you wanted to start up in business but couldn't
decide whether to start now or in a year's time. On the tree
you would first state what the outcomes could be of each
course. For "starting up now", the outcomes could be
"getting into the market early" which would be highly
desirable and highly probable; and "over-stretching" which
would be quite probable and not at all desirable.
On the other hand, for "leaving it for a year", the outcomes
could be "missing the market", which would be very
undesirable and quite probable; and "better preparation"
which would be fairly desirable but only fairly probable.
Weighing the options up, it is clear what the best course is.

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Thinking Skills
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PROS AND CONS
One of the simplest ways to make a decision is to take a
piece of paper and draw a line down the middle of the page.
On the right side, list the pluses; on the left side, list the
minuses. Weigh up the respective merits of each side,
perhaps by giving each factor a weighting, and then decide.
For example, using the example of a business start-up in the
near future, we might list the pluses as: getting into an
expanding market early; taking advantage of business
grants; enthusiasm; support of wife and family; local agency
support.
The minuses might be: lack of funds to finance equipment;
product not quite ready; could be more stressful. Putting
these thoughts and feelings on paper in this way helps us to
come to a decision.
Aligned to this method are cost-benefit analyses, and force-
field analyses.

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
TOSS A COIN
When all other factors are equal and we can't make up our
minds whether to say "Yes" or "No", "This way or "That
way", the simplest solution may be to toss a coin.
Tossing a coin is a way of saying that you are confronted by
two equally valid options and are unable through reasoning
and analysis to come down for one or the other. You are
thus prepared to leave things to chance, or the gods.
It is worth noting that when Albert Einstein had to make a
choice, he would toss a coin and as soon as it landed, he
would ask himself how he felt. If good, he would go with it;
if bad, he would go against it.
"Take the big decisions with your heart and the little
decisions with your head."

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
THE EQUIVALENT URN
The equivalent urn and the probability wheel combine the
ratings of the pros and cons method of decision-taking with
pure chance.
1. in the equivalent urn, which is any large container that
can hold ping-pong balls, place black balls for every
disadvantage in an option and white balls for every
advantage in an option. You can rate each factor from 1
to 10 on the scale of desirability or probability and mark
the rating on the balls. Now shuffle the balls and pick
one out of the urn (or the best of three). Use these to
decide whether to go for it or not.
2. the probability wheel is similar to the equivalent urn,
except that the options are drawn on the spokes of a
spinning wheel and weighted according to their rating.
The wheel is spun and the spoke that points to the
winning arrow is the option to take.

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THE RAINBOW MODEL
A decision-making model provides a method to look at all
the angles of a decision.
In the Rainbow Model, we can assess all the angles of a
decision by using each colour of the rainbow to look at a
different aspect.
1. red = the colour of warning, what stops us going ahead
2. orange = the colour of hazards, what are the risks?
3. yellow = the colour of sunshine, the positives
4. green = the colour of growth, the new ideas
5. blue = the colour of sky and sea, the big picture
6. indigo = the colour pink, what we are comfortable with
7. violet = the colour of wealth and authority, what is
strong and powerful.

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SHALL WE GO AHEAD?
An example of the Rainbow decision-making model could be
someone faced with a decision of starting up their own
business now or next year.
This is how the Rainbow Model might put their thoughts:
1. red for stop: the fear of failing; the lack of finance
2. orange for risks: the product might not be ready; the
market may be slow; there are high start-up costs;
3. yellow for positives: the chance to be my own boss; the
pleasure of serving others;
4. green for new ideas: talk to others; read books; get
advice
5. blue for the big picture: we're at the right age; it won't
affect any other commitments; we want to do it
6. indigo for what we are comfortable with: we know we
have a good idea; we've considered the pitfalls
7. violet for power: we have determination to succeed.

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MTL Course Topics
PARENT, ADULT, CHILD
The Parent-Adult-Child decision-making model uses the
Parent, Adult, Child concepts from Transactional Analysis to
illustrate three approaches to making a decision.
Let's say we've seen a book that we want to buy at £29.00.
1. the Child in us wants it; we love the thought of owning
it, feeling it, enjoying it; the thought of owning it thrills
us.
2. the Internal Parent in us asks us what we should do,
wondering whether the money couldn't be better spent
elsewhere and whether it isn't a bit of a waste of
money.
3. the Adult in us weighs up dispassionately what the pros
and cons are in the light of our other needs and goals.
We can now make an informed decision whether to buy it
or not.

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SIX THINKING HATS
Edward de Bono's "Six Thinking Hats" and "Six Thinking
Shoes" are attempts to break out of traditional, logical
thinking. Both books use clothing and their colours to
prompt us to think in certain ways when making a decision.
1. white hat. White is neutral and objective and like white
paper, conveys simple facts
2. black hat. Black is judgmental like the black hat a judge
put on when passing the death sentence
3. red hat. Red is fire, warmth and energy and represents
intuitive thought. It is the colour of a witch's hat.
4. yellow hat. Yellow is the colour of a straw boater and is
summery, positive and optimistic.
5. green hat. Green, the colour of a gardener's hat,
represents new life and new ideas.
6. blue hat. Blue is the colour of cool, detached thinking as
if we were looking down from the sky.

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
SIX THINKING SHOES
Edward de Bono is the author of "Six Thinking Shoes" which
provides a model of how to approach decisions from all
angles. It is a companion to his "Six Thinking Hats".
1. navy shoes. Navy blue is the colour of routines the
things that are necessary for survival
2. grey sneakers. Grey is the colour of brainwork, as in
"the old grey matter" and represents the things we
need to know
3. brown brogues. Brown is the colour of earth and
represents what is practical and down-to-earth
4. orange gumboots. Orange is the colour of warning
signs, the thoughts we need to assess risks
5. pink slippers. Pink is what is comfortable, caring and
understanding
6. purple riding boots. Purple is pomp and splendour and
represents responsible thinking, what we should do.

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MTL Course Topics
NOISICED
NOISICED is "decision" spelt backwards. The letters spell out
the eight steps in making a decision. An example is coming
to a decision about a job move.
N - Needs: Why do I need to move?
O - Objectives: Does the new job help me achieve my
ambitions?
I - Information: Do I have all the information I need? What
are the key pieces of information?
S - Strategy: Does this move fit in with my life's plans?
I - Investigate: Check out other possibilities.
C - Choosing: What are the steps I need to take to make the
move?
E - Ego states: How do I feel? What do I think? What should I
do?
D - DECIDE.

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
THE PERSONALITY MODEL
A personality model, such as the nine types of the
Enneagram, enables us to consider how different people
seek different things from their decisions.
1. the moral choice: what should I do?
2. the consensus choice: what do others think I should do?
3. the winnable choice: what will succeed and get me to my
goals?
4. the choice I'd love to make: what is the thing I'd love to
do? (what would I do if I knew I couldn't fail?)
5. the sensible choice: what fits in with the big picture?
6. the safe choice: what offers the least risk, now as well as
in the future?
7. the do-able choice: what will work best?
8. the gut choice: what does my instinct tell me to do?
9. the easy choice: what option is easiest to do and will cost
me little in terms of money, effort and sacrifice?

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MTL Course Topics
SHOULD I BUY THIS CAR?
The personality-based decision model can be applied to any
decision we have to take. Here it is applied to a decision
over whether to spend our hard-earned money buying a
new car or not.
1. Is this the right thing to do, bearing in mind our other
needs and goals?
2. What do other people think?
3. Will this help me achieve my short-term, medium-term
and long-term goals?
4. What's so special about this decision that I have to think
about it?
5. Does it make sense?
6. What are the dangers if I go ahead?
7. Are there any reasons why it won't work?
8. Does this decision feel right?
9. Is there an easier way to get what I want?

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MTL Course Topics
ON THE HOOF
Some decisions can be made on the hoof, or as we go, as
long as we are prepared to learn from wrong decisions and
adjust our course in the process.
David Kolb's experiential learning model provides a useful
five-stage plan for "on-the-hoof" decisions:
1. take the decision to act on the best evidence to hand and
with a clear view of what our overall objectives are
2. now, act. Do so confidently and with commitment.
3. assess the results. Has the decision brought us nearer our
objectives? If not, why not?
4. think about it. What can we learn from the results?
5. devise a theory for use next time. From what happened,
what do we now know that we didn't know before?
6. now take another decision but with the wisdom of having
learnt from the previous experience and go round the cycle
once more.

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MTL Course Topics
INSTINCT
No matter what method or model we use to make a
decision, there comes a moment when we know
instinctively whether the decision is right or not.
Intuition is something we all possess and can use to sense
whether a decision is right or not. It is gut instinct.
Many of the biggest business deals ever taken were taken
on instinct. But they were rarely taken on a whim. Intuition
works best when we have done the groundwork,
accumulated plenty of expertise and researched the field.
Intuition is no substitute for hard work and planning.
Having a good instinct is also known as "operacy". It
combines sensitivity, practicality and an ability to see how
things will work out (or operate) in practice.
"A hunch is creativity trying to tell you something."

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THE DEAF MUTE
All the big decisions you take should first be checked with
your intuition. So, how does your intuition work?
Suppose you’re worried about taking a decision. Your
intuition scans through the enormous database of
information in your brain. This is the sum total of all the
thoughts, desires, and hopes that you’ve had (in this life,
and, who knows, even before it). It then evaluates and
processes the new decision until it comes to a conclusion. It
then tries to signal you.
However, in our crowded, information-overloaded lives,
your intuition can be like a deaf mute. It sees clearly what’s
right for you, but it only has subtle ways to tell you. It may
be a passing feeling in the pit of your stomach or a nagging
thought, or a quiet voice.
Take time to cultivate your intuition for it is never wrong and
has your best interests at heart.

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
THAT’S
IT!
WELL DONE!

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Thinking Skills
MTL Course Topics
THANK YOU
This has been a Slide Topic from Manage Train Learn