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Conditional survival for longer-term survivors from 2000--2004 using
population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan
BMC Cancer 2013, 13:304 doi:10.1186/1471-2407-13-304
Yuri Ito (itou-yu2@mc.pref.osaka.jp)
Tomio Nakayama (nakayama-to@mc.pref.osaka.jp)
Isao Miyashiro (miyasiro-is@mc.pref.osaka.jp)
Akiko Ioka (ioka-ak@mc.pref.osaka.jp)
Hideaki Tsukuma (tukuma-hi@mc.pref.osaka.jp)
ISSN 1471-2407
Article type Research article
Submission date 19 March 2013
Acceptance date 14 June 2013
Publication date 22 June 2013
Article URL http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2407/13/304
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© 2013 Ito et al.
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Conditional survival for longer-term survivors from
2000–2004 using population-based cancer registry
data in Osaka, Japan
Yuri Ito1*
*
Corresponding author
Email: itou-yu2@mc.pref.osaka.jp
Tomio Nakayama1
Email: nakayama-to@mc.pref.osaka.jp
Isao Miyashiro1
Email: miyasiro-is@mc.pref.osaka.jp
Akiko Ioka1
Email: ioka-ak@mc.pref.osaka.jp
Hideaki Tsukuma1
Email: tukuma-hi@mc.pref.osaka.jp
1
Center for Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and
Cardiovascular Diseases, 3-3 Nakamichi 1-Chome, Higashinari-ku, Osaka 537-
8511, Japan
Abstract
Background
We usually report five-year survival from population-based cancer registries in Japan;
however these survival estimates may be pessimistic for cancer survivors, because many
patients with unfavourable prognosis die shortly after diagnosis. Conditional survival can
provide relevant information for cancer survivors, their family and oncologists.
Methods
We used the period approach to estimate the latest 10-year survival of 38,439 patients with
stomach, colorectal, lung, breast and prostate cancer diagnosed between 1990 and 2004 and
followed-up from 2000–04 in Osaka, Japan. Conditional survival is an estimate, with the pre-
condition of having already survived a certain length of time. Conditional five-year relative
survival of one to five years after diagnosis was calculated by site, age and stage for survivors
under the age of 70.
Results
Five-year relative survival for stomach cancer was 60%. Conditional five-year relative
survival was 77% one year after diagnosis and 97% five years after diagnosis. This means
that 97% of patients who survive five years after diagnosis can survive a further five years.
Conditional five-year relative survival improved successively with each additional year that
patients lived after diagnosis for stomach, colorectal and lung cancer. These figures for breast
and prostate cancer were stable at high survival. Liver cancer did not show an increase in
conditional five-year survival.
Conclusion
Conditional five-year survival is a relevant figure for long-term cancer survivors in Japan. It
is important for population-based cancer registries to provide figures which cancer patients
and oncologists really need.
Keywords
Conditional survival, Cancer registries, Relative survival, Japan
Background
In recent years cancer patients have been able to survive for longer than those diagnosed a
few decades ago. We usually report five-year relative survival rates after diagnosis in the
annual reports of regional cancer registries in Japan. However, these survival estimates may
be pessimistic for cancer survivors, because many patients with unfavourable prognosis die
shortly after diagnosis.
Conditional survival analysis is a method to estimate survival rates, with the pre-condition of
having already survived a certain length of time. The figures have been reported in the US
and other countries, and can provide cancer survivors, their families and oncologists with
more relevant information [1-11].
In 2007, the Basic Plan to Promote Cancer Control Programs of Japan was approved,
following the establishment of the Cancer Control ACT of Japan in 2006. Improvement of
cancer care support and information services is one of the specific goals of this program [12].
Longstanding population-based cancer registry data can provide this type of useful
information to cancer survivors. We used cancer patient data from the Osaka Cancer
Registry, which has a long history and covers the largest population in Japan, to report
conditional survival in patients with six major cancers by age group and stage at diagnosis.
Methods
Data sources
We analysed 38,439 cases diagnosed with first, primary, invasive malignant tumour of the
following cancers: stomach (International Classification of Diseases, 10th
revision code [13]:
C16), colorectal (C18-C20), lung (C33, C34), breast (C50, female only) and prostate (C61)
from 1990–2004. They were followed up between 2000 and 2004 in Osaka, Japan, from the
Osaka Cancer Registry database. We limited the data to patients who were diagnosed at age
15 to 69 years. Patients over 70 years of age at diagnosis were excluded from the analyses as
long-term survival estimates are unstable for older age groups. In the Osaka Cancer Registry,
we followed patients up using the death certificate database for residents in Osaka prefecture.
However, if patients had moved outside the Osaka Prefecture after diagnosis the death
certificate database would be unable to capture their details. In these cases resident registries
were used to follow the patients up. Residents in Osaka-city (30% of total population of
Osaka prefecture) were not followed-up using residence registries before 1993, so patients
who lived in Osaka-city were excluded from the analysis. Cases diagnosed from 1990 to
1999 were followed up for 10 years after diagnosis, whereas follow-up was limited to 5 years
for those diagnosed from 2000 to 2004. (Figure 1)
Figure 1 Illustration of period approach to estimate up-to-date long-term survival.
Statistical analysis
First, we estimated ten-year relative survival using the Osaka Cancer Registry data by sex,
age group (15–49, 50–59 and 60–69 years old) and stage at diagnosis (localised, regional and
distant metastasis). Relative survival is a ratio of the observed survival (overall survival) and
the survival that would have been expected if the cancer patient had only experienced the
normal (background) mortality of the general population in which they live [14]. In this study
we estimated relative survival using the maximum likelihood method developed by Esteve et
al. [15] and the publicly available Stata programme strel [16]. We derived the expected
survival from complete (single-year-of-age) national population life tables by sex [17]. We
used conventional 10-year relative survival estimating based on data from patients who were
diagnosed from1995-1999 and were followed-up over 10 years (dashed line in Figure 1).
However, calculation of long-term survival using the conventional method is outdated. We
therefore used period analysis to derive more up-to-date long-term survival using data from
recently followed-up cancer patients [18]. In this study, we used data from cancer patients
who were diagnosed from 1990–2004 and followed-up between 2000 and 2004 (solid black
line, in Figure 1).
Second, we calculated conditional five-year survival for patients who survived for 0 to 5
years after diagnosis using ten-year cumulative relative survival. To estimate the five-year
conditional survival of patients who survived x years, the (x + 5)-year cumulative survival
rates is divided by the x-year cumulative survival. In the other words, conditional five-year
survival is five-year survival of the patients who are alive several years after diagnosis [2,10].
Third, for missing stage cases, we used the multiple imputation approach [19]. We examined
the characteristics of patients with missing stage before multiple imputation, then we
assumed the mechanism of missingness as Missing At Random. The relative survival of the
ten completed data sets contained the imputed value of stage for cases with missing
information (6.4-17.1%). The imputation model was a multinomial logistic regression
including follow-up time, vital status, period of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, and interactions
between follow-up time and other factors. Rubin’s rules were applied to estimate relative
survival and standard errors combining the ten completed data sets. All statistical analyses
were performed using the standard statistical package Stata Ver. 12.1 [20].
Results
The characteristics of patients we analysed are shown in Table 1. Conditional five-year
survival for all stage patients under the age of 70 by site of cancer is shown in Figure 2. For
stomach cancer, the five-year relative survival for all cases is 60% at diagnosis. 77% of
patients who survived one year (one-year survivor) can survive an additional five years.
Conditional five-year survival at two years after diagnosis was 87%. Conditional five-year
survival at five years after diagnosis was 97%. This means 97% of the stomach cancer
patients who survived for more than five years can survive another five years. Colorectal and
lung cancer showed similar results to stomach cancer patients. However, conditional five-
year survival for liver cancer did not increase after any period post diagnosis. Conditional
survival for breast and prostate cancer patients was stable at around 85-90%.
Table 1 Characteristic of cancer patients for selected sites of cancer in Osaka, Japan in 1990–2004
Stomach Colon/rectum Liver Lung Breast Prostate
N % N % N % N % N % N %
Total 10278 100.0 8411 100.0 4800 100.0 6397 100.0 7229 100.0 1324 100.0
Age
15-49 1266 12.3 897 10.7 296 6.2 549 8.6 2591 35.8 6 0.5
50-59 3442 33.5 2830 33.6 1344 28.0 2024 31.6 2752 38.1 214 16.2
60-69 5570 54.2 4684 55.7 3160 65.8 3824 59.8 1886 26.1 1104 83.4
Stage (before imputation)
Localised 4863 50.7 3568 45.3 2897 72.8 1426 23.8 3747 57.3 785 65.4
Regional 2758 28.8 2577 32.7 663 16.7 2167 36.2 2439 37.3 175 14.6
Distant 1972 20.6 1728 21.9 421 10.6 2397 40.0 350 5.4 241 20.1
Missing 685 (6.7) 538 (6.4) 819 (17.1) 407 (6.4) 693 (9.6) 123 (9.3)
Stage (after imputation)
Localised 5202 50.6 3817 45.4 3436 71.6 1511 23.6 4139 57.3 865 65.3
Regional 2960 28.8 2757 32.8 818 17.0 2304 36.0 2701 37.4 196 14.8
Distant 2116 20.6 1837 21.8 546 11.4 2582 40.4 389 5.4 263 19.9
Figure 2 Conditional five-year survival for all patients diagnosed in 1990–2004 and
followed-up in 2000–2004 in Osaka, Japan.
By age group
Results by age group are shown in Figure 3. Most cancer sites showed similar results among
the different age groups. In liver cancer patients, conditional survival increased in the young
group (under the age of 50). In prostate cancer patients, the older age group (60–69 years old)
showed better conditional survival than the younger age group (50–59 years old).
Figure 3 Conditional five-year survival of the patients diagnosed in 1990–2004 and
followed-up in 2000–2004 in Osaka, Japan: by age group.
By stage
Figures for conditional survival by stage at diagnosis were different for different cancers
(Figure 4). In all except liver cancer patients, the figures for conditional survival for localised
patients were high at around 90%. In stomach, colorectal and lung cancer patients, even the
regional and distant metastasis cases showed high five-year survival for five-year survivors.
In liver cancer patients, even localised cases showed low conditional five-year survival. In
breast and prostate cancer patients, conditional five-year survival for each stage was stable.
Figure 4 Conditional five-year survival of the patients diagnosed in 1990–2004 and
followed-up in 2000–2004 in Osaka, Japan: by stage at diagnosis.
Discussion
Conditional five-year relative survival improved successively with each additional year that
patients lived following diagnosis for stomach, colorectal and lung cancer. This pattern was
also similar to the regional or distant metastasis cases. Breast and prostate cancer showed
different trends; conditional five-year survival was stable at a higher level. Liver cancer did
not show any increase in conditional five-year survival.
Stomach and colorectal cancer
For stomach and colorectal cancer patients who survived more than five years after diagnosis,
conditional five-year survival was close to 100%. This means that those who survived five
years would have the same survival probability as the general population, i.e. they can be
considered as ‘cured’ of cancer. Although it is difficult to define clinical ‘cure’ at the
individual level, we can define the concept of ‘cure’ at population level [21,22]. Conditional
five-year survival for localised cases was stable at more than 90%. Those for regional or
distant metastasis increased according to the number of years since diagnosis. Even late stage
patients who survive a few years have a chance of living another five years.
Lung cancer
Conditional survival in lung cancer patients increased according to the additional years after
diagnosis. However, the figures were lower than those for stomach and colorectal cancer.
This was because lung cancer patients have a higher risk of death due to complications
related to cancer or cancer risk (smoking), such as ischemic heart disease.
Breast and prostate cancer
Conditional five-year survival rates for all cases of both breast and prostate cancer were
around 80-90%, due to the higher proportion of localised patients in all cases. Conditional
five-year survival for localised prostate cancer patients slightly decreased five years after
diagnosis. This could be partly explained by the recurrence or progression of tumours during
long-term follow-up. For these cancers, we need to follow-up patients for a longer period.
Liver cancer
Conditional survival for liver cancer was much lower than for other cancers at any stage or
age after several years. Even in localised patients, conditional five-year survival was less than
40% after five years. This is probably because many liver cancer patients experienced a
recurrence of cancer, or died from liver cirrhosis or liver failure related to the hepatitis B or C
virus.
Effect of age and stage at diagnosis
Trends in conditional survival by age group were quite similar except for liver and prostate
cancer. For most cancers, age did not significantly affect conditional survival. In the case of
liver cancer, conditional survival for young patients (15–49 years old) was higher than for old
patients (60–69 years old) after several years. This could be explained by the fact that the old
patients had been exposed to hepatitis viruses for long time; as a result, they tended to
develop liver cirrhosis and liver failure more than young patients. Conditional survival of
young prostate cancer patients (50–59 years old) was lower than old patients (60–69 years
old). This is probably because young patients are diagnosed at a more advanced stage than
old patients (the proportion of distant metastasis was 35.2% in 50-59-year-old patients and
28.3% in 60-69-year-old patients).
The conditional survival curve was different by stage; stage at diagnosis was an important
prognostic factor. Conditional survival for localised patients was stable at 85-95%, while for
regional and distant metastasis patients it increased after several years of diagnosis.
Trends in conditional survival for breast and colorectal cancer patients in Osaka were similar
to other countries (shown in Additional file 1: Figures S1-S4 from Australia [2,6], US [8],
Canada [5,11] and European countries [3,9]). Conditional survival for prostate cancer at all
stages in Osaka was lower than other countries. This is due to the low proportion of localised
patients in Japan compared to other countries. Conditional survival of stomach cancer for all
stage and localised in Osaka was higher than in Australia [2]. Stomach cancer patients in
Osaka were diagnosed at an earlier stage than in Australia (e.g. 51% patients diagnosed at
localised stage in Osaka, 28% in Australia). In addition, approximately half of the stomach
cancer patients in Japan were diagnosed at T1 (UICC TNM classification) [23]. Therefore we
can estimate a higher proportion of T1 in localised patients in Osaka than in Australia. Higher
conditional survival for localised patients can be partly explained by differences in tumour.
This may be due to stomach cancer screening programmes [24] and wide use of endoscopy in
clinical settings in Japan. Conditional survival of localised lung cancer in Osaka was higher
than in other countries. This could be explained by differences in tumour size and histology
[25,26]. Conditional survival for liver cancer patients in Canada increased some years after
diagnosis [11], while in Osaka it was stable at low survival. This can be explained by the
differences in etiological factor among these countries. In the US and Canada, prevalence of
hepatitis B or C viruses in liver cancer cases was lower than in Japan [27]. Liver cancer
patients in Japan might have greater likelihood of liver failure or hepatitis-related cirrhosis
than those in the US and Canada.
Conditional five-year survival for stomach and colorectal cancer patients who were alive five
years after diagnosis was about 100%; this means those patients have similar survival
probability to the general population. Therefore those patients can be considered as ‘cured’.
For other sites of cancer, further long-term follow-up time may be needed to estimate ‘cured’
time.
Conditional survival is an important statistic for planning long-term life after diagnosis, not
only for cancer patients and their families, but also patients with other diseases. However, a
population-based disease registry system, such as the population-based cancer registry, is
essential to estimate this type of statistic.
Conclusion
Conditional five-year survival is a relevant figure for long-term cancer survivors in Japan. It
is important for population-based cancer registries to provide figures which cancer patients
and oncologists really need.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Authors’ contribution
YI, TN and HT developed the study concept. YI and IA were responsible for data
management and statistical analysis. TN, IM and HT reviewed the clinical background of the
results. YI wrote the draft of the report. All authors critically reviewed and revised the
manuscript.
Acknowledgements
We thank Dr Akira Oshima who gave us the concepts of this paper, Dr Julia Mortimer who
edited the English in our manuscripts, and all the medical institutes which cooperated by
providing data to the population-based cancer registry in Osaka. This work was supported by
the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture of Japan [a Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists
(B) No. 24701042 to YI] and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan [a Grant-
in-Aid for Clinical Cancer Research No. H22-011 to YI, AI, IM and HT, a Health and Labour
Sciences Research Grant for the Third Term Comprehensive Control Research for Cancer
No. 22091601 to TN, No. H25-008 to YI and AI].
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Additional file
Additional_file_1 as PDF
Additional file 1 Figure S1-S4 comparison of conditional survival between countries, by site
and stage.
Figure 1
60
77
87
929597
63
72
80
86
92
95
24
3132333437
26
42
59
71
78
82
858586889092
838183868887
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
012345012345012345
012345012345012345
StomachColon/RectumLiver
LungBreastProstate
Conditional five−year survival (%)
YearsafterdiagnosisFigure2
62
78
88
93 95 96
58
74
85
91 94 96
62
70
77
85
90
94
64
73
81
87
92 95
24
39 43
48 46
52
24
30 30 29 31 32
28
45
63
75
81
86
24
38
56
68
74 77
87 86 86 88 90 91
87 86 88 89 92 94
76 72 74
79 82 84
85 84 86 87 89 89
020406080100
020406080100
020406080100
020406080100
020406080100
020406080100
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Stomach Colon/Rectum Liver
Lung Breast Prostate
15−49 50−59 60−69
Conditionalfive−yearsurvival(%)
Years after diagnosis
Figure 3
9494 9696 9797 9898 9999 9999
4141
5252
6565
7676
8484
8989
44
99
1818
3636
4646
5555
9292 9292 9393 9494 9696 9898
5757 6161
6868
7777
8585
9090
1111
1919
3030
4343
5353
7070
3333 3434 3535 3434 3535 3737
99
1818
2222
2626
3535 3636
11
55 44 44 77
1212
7373 7777
8282 8585 8888 8989
2121
2828
4444
5858
6868
7474
44
1010
1818
3434
4242
5252
9696 9595 9595 9595 9696 9696
7979 7777 7777 8080 8383 8585
2424 2424 2727 3030
3636
4646
9999 9999 100100 9999 9999 9696
8383
7979 8282 8383 8484 8484
3939
3434 3737
4343 4646 4949
020406080100
020406080100
020406080100
020406080100
020406080100
020406080100
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Stomach Colon/Rectum Liver
Lung Breast Prostate
Localised Regional Distant
Conditionalfive−yearsurvival(%)
Years after diagnosis
Figure 4
Additional files provided with this submission:
Additional file 1: 1543342963948136_add1.pdf, 91K
http://www.biomedcentral.com/imedia/2080047110102391/supp1.pdf

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Conditional survival for longer-term survivors from 2000--2004 using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan

  • 1. This Provisional PDF corresponds to the article as it appeared upon acceptance. Fully formatted PDF and full text (HTML) versions will be made available soon. Conditional survival for longer-term survivors from 2000--2004 using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan BMC Cancer 2013, 13:304 doi:10.1186/1471-2407-13-304 Yuri Ito (itou-yu2@mc.pref.osaka.jp) Tomio Nakayama (nakayama-to@mc.pref.osaka.jp) Isao Miyashiro (miyasiro-is@mc.pref.osaka.jp) Akiko Ioka (ioka-ak@mc.pref.osaka.jp) Hideaki Tsukuma (tukuma-hi@mc.pref.osaka.jp) ISSN 1471-2407 Article type Research article Submission date 19 March 2013 Acceptance date 14 June 2013 Publication date 22 June 2013 Article URL http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2407/13/304 Like all articles in BMC journals, this peer-reviewed article can be downloaded, printed and distributed freely for any purposes (see copyright notice below). Articles in BMC journals are listed in PubMed and archived at PubMed Central. For information about publishing your research in BMC journals or any BioMed Central journal, go to http://www.biomedcentral.com/info/authors/ BMC Cancer © 2013 Ito et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
  • 2. Conditional survival for longer-term survivors from 2000–2004 using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan Yuri Ito1* * Corresponding author Email: itou-yu2@mc.pref.osaka.jp Tomio Nakayama1 Email: nakayama-to@mc.pref.osaka.jp Isao Miyashiro1 Email: miyasiro-is@mc.pref.osaka.jp Akiko Ioka1 Email: ioka-ak@mc.pref.osaka.jp Hideaki Tsukuma1 Email: tukuma-hi@mc.pref.osaka.jp 1 Center for Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases, 3-3 Nakamichi 1-Chome, Higashinari-ku, Osaka 537- 8511, Japan Abstract Background We usually report five-year survival from population-based cancer registries in Japan; however these survival estimates may be pessimistic for cancer survivors, because many patients with unfavourable prognosis die shortly after diagnosis. Conditional survival can provide relevant information for cancer survivors, their family and oncologists. Methods We used the period approach to estimate the latest 10-year survival of 38,439 patients with stomach, colorectal, lung, breast and prostate cancer diagnosed between 1990 and 2004 and followed-up from 2000–04 in Osaka, Japan. Conditional survival is an estimate, with the pre- condition of having already survived a certain length of time. Conditional five-year relative survival of one to five years after diagnosis was calculated by site, age and stage for survivors under the age of 70. Results Five-year relative survival for stomach cancer was 60%. Conditional five-year relative survival was 77% one year after diagnosis and 97% five years after diagnosis. This means that 97% of patients who survive five years after diagnosis can survive a further five years.
  • 3. Conditional five-year relative survival improved successively with each additional year that patients lived after diagnosis for stomach, colorectal and lung cancer. These figures for breast and prostate cancer were stable at high survival. Liver cancer did not show an increase in conditional five-year survival. Conclusion Conditional five-year survival is a relevant figure for long-term cancer survivors in Japan. It is important for population-based cancer registries to provide figures which cancer patients and oncologists really need. Keywords Conditional survival, Cancer registries, Relative survival, Japan Background In recent years cancer patients have been able to survive for longer than those diagnosed a few decades ago. We usually report five-year relative survival rates after diagnosis in the annual reports of regional cancer registries in Japan. However, these survival estimates may be pessimistic for cancer survivors, because many patients with unfavourable prognosis die shortly after diagnosis. Conditional survival analysis is a method to estimate survival rates, with the pre-condition of having already survived a certain length of time. The figures have been reported in the US and other countries, and can provide cancer survivors, their families and oncologists with more relevant information [1-11]. In 2007, the Basic Plan to Promote Cancer Control Programs of Japan was approved, following the establishment of the Cancer Control ACT of Japan in 2006. Improvement of cancer care support and information services is one of the specific goals of this program [12]. Longstanding population-based cancer registry data can provide this type of useful information to cancer survivors. We used cancer patient data from the Osaka Cancer Registry, which has a long history and covers the largest population in Japan, to report conditional survival in patients with six major cancers by age group and stage at diagnosis. Methods Data sources We analysed 38,439 cases diagnosed with first, primary, invasive malignant tumour of the following cancers: stomach (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision code [13]: C16), colorectal (C18-C20), lung (C33, C34), breast (C50, female only) and prostate (C61) from 1990–2004. They were followed up between 2000 and 2004 in Osaka, Japan, from the Osaka Cancer Registry database. We limited the data to patients who were diagnosed at age 15 to 69 years. Patients over 70 years of age at diagnosis were excluded from the analyses as long-term survival estimates are unstable for older age groups. In the Osaka Cancer Registry, we followed patients up using the death certificate database for residents in Osaka prefecture.
  • 4. However, if patients had moved outside the Osaka Prefecture after diagnosis the death certificate database would be unable to capture their details. In these cases resident registries were used to follow the patients up. Residents in Osaka-city (30% of total population of Osaka prefecture) were not followed-up using residence registries before 1993, so patients who lived in Osaka-city were excluded from the analysis. Cases diagnosed from 1990 to 1999 were followed up for 10 years after diagnosis, whereas follow-up was limited to 5 years for those diagnosed from 2000 to 2004. (Figure 1) Figure 1 Illustration of period approach to estimate up-to-date long-term survival. Statistical analysis First, we estimated ten-year relative survival using the Osaka Cancer Registry data by sex, age group (15–49, 50–59 and 60–69 years old) and stage at diagnosis (localised, regional and distant metastasis). Relative survival is a ratio of the observed survival (overall survival) and the survival that would have been expected if the cancer patient had only experienced the normal (background) mortality of the general population in which they live [14]. In this study we estimated relative survival using the maximum likelihood method developed by Esteve et al. [15] and the publicly available Stata programme strel [16]. We derived the expected survival from complete (single-year-of-age) national population life tables by sex [17]. We used conventional 10-year relative survival estimating based on data from patients who were diagnosed from1995-1999 and were followed-up over 10 years (dashed line in Figure 1). However, calculation of long-term survival using the conventional method is outdated. We therefore used period analysis to derive more up-to-date long-term survival using data from recently followed-up cancer patients [18]. In this study, we used data from cancer patients who were diagnosed from 1990–2004 and followed-up between 2000 and 2004 (solid black line, in Figure 1). Second, we calculated conditional five-year survival for patients who survived for 0 to 5 years after diagnosis using ten-year cumulative relative survival. To estimate the five-year conditional survival of patients who survived x years, the (x + 5)-year cumulative survival rates is divided by the x-year cumulative survival. In the other words, conditional five-year survival is five-year survival of the patients who are alive several years after diagnosis [2,10]. Third, for missing stage cases, we used the multiple imputation approach [19]. We examined the characteristics of patients with missing stage before multiple imputation, then we assumed the mechanism of missingness as Missing At Random. The relative survival of the ten completed data sets contained the imputed value of stage for cases with missing information (6.4-17.1%). The imputation model was a multinomial logistic regression including follow-up time, vital status, period of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, and interactions between follow-up time and other factors. Rubin’s rules were applied to estimate relative survival and standard errors combining the ten completed data sets. All statistical analyses were performed using the standard statistical package Stata Ver. 12.1 [20].
  • 5. Results The characteristics of patients we analysed are shown in Table 1. Conditional five-year survival for all stage patients under the age of 70 by site of cancer is shown in Figure 2. For stomach cancer, the five-year relative survival for all cases is 60% at diagnosis. 77% of patients who survived one year (one-year survivor) can survive an additional five years. Conditional five-year survival at two years after diagnosis was 87%. Conditional five-year survival at five years after diagnosis was 97%. This means 97% of the stomach cancer patients who survived for more than five years can survive another five years. Colorectal and lung cancer showed similar results to stomach cancer patients. However, conditional five- year survival for liver cancer did not increase after any period post diagnosis. Conditional survival for breast and prostate cancer patients was stable at around 85-90%.
  • 6. Table 1 Characteristic of cancer patients for selected sites of cancer in Osaka, Japan in 1990–2004 Stomach Colon/rectum Liver Lung Breast Prostate N % N % N % N % N % N % Total 10278 100.0 8411 100.0 4800 100.0 6397 100.0 7229 100.0 1324 100.0 Age 15-49 1266 12.3 897 10.7 296 6.2 549 8.6 2591 35.8 6 0.5 50-59 3442 33.5 2830 33.6 1344 28.0 2024 31.6 2752 38.1 214 16.2 60-69 5570 54.2 4684 55.7 3160 65.8 3824 59.8 1886 26.1 1104 83.4 Stage (before imputation) Localised 4863 50.7 3568 45.3 2897 72.8 1426 23.8 3747 57.3 785 65.4 Regional 2758 28.8 2577 32.7 663 16.7 2167 36.2 2439 37.3 175 14.6 Distant 1972 20.6 1728 21.9 421 10.6 2397 40.0 350 5.4 241 20.1 Missing 685 (6.7) 538 (6.4) 819 (17.1) 407 (6.4) 693 (9.6) 123 (9.3) Stage (after imputation) Localised 5202 50.6 3817 45.4 3436 71.6 1511 23.6 4139 57.3 865 65.3 Regional 2960 28.8 2757 32.8 818 17.0 2304 36.0 2701 37.4 196 14.8 Distant 2116 20.6 1837 21.8 546 11.4 2582 40.4 389 5.4 263 19.9
  • 7. Figure 2 Conditional five-year survival for all patients diagnosed in 1990–2004 and followed-up in 2000–2004 in Osaka, Japan. By age group Results by age group are shown in Figure 3. Most cancer sites showed similar results among the different age groups. In liver cancer patients, conditional survival increased in the young group (under the age of 50). In prostate cancer patients, the older age group (60–69 years old) showed better conditional survival than the younger age group (50–59 years old). Figure 3 Conditional five-year survival of the patients diagnosed in 1990–2004 and followed-up in 2000–2004 in Osaka, Japan: by age group. By stage Figures for conditional survival by stage at diagnosis were different for different cancers (Figure 4). In all except liver cancer patients, the figures for conditional survival for localised patients were high at around 90%. In stomach, colorectal and lung cancer patients, even the regional and distant metastasis cases showed high five-year survival for five-year survivors. In liver cancer patients, even localised cases showed low conditional five-year survival. In breast and prostate cancer patients, conditional five-year survival for each stage was stable. Figure 4 Conditional five-year survival of the patients diagnosed in 1990–2004 and followed-up in 2000–2004 in Osaka, Japan: by stage at diagnosis. Discussion Conditional five-year relative survival improved successively with each additional year that patients lived following diagnosis for stomach, colorectal and lung cancer. This pattern was also similar to the regional or distant metastasis cases. Breast and prostate cancer showed different trends; conditional five-year survival was stable at a higher level. Liver cancer did not show any increase in conditional five-year survival. Stomach and colorectal cancer For stomach and colorectal cancer patients who survived more than five years after diagnosis, conditional five-year survival was close to 100%. This means that those who survived five years would have the same survival probability as the general population, i.e. they can be considered as ‘cured’ of cancer. Although it is difficult to define clinical ‘cure’ at the individual level, we can define the concept of ‘cure’ at population level [21,22]. Conditional five-year survival for localised cases was stable at more than 90%. Those for regional or distant metastasis increased according to the number of years since diagnosis. Even late stage patients who survive a few years have a chance of living another five years. Lung cancer Conditional survival in lung cancer patients increased according to the additional years after diagnosis. However, the figures were lower than those for stomach and colorectal cancer.
  • 8. This was because lung cancer patients have a higher risk of death due to complications related to cancer or cancer risk (smoking), such as ischemic heart disease. Breast and prostate cancer Conditional five-year survival rates for all cases of both breast and prostate cancer were around 80-90%, due to the higher proportion of localised patients in all cases. Conditional five-year survival for localised prostate cancer patients slightly decreased five years after diagnosis. This could be partly explained by the recurrence or progression of tumours during long-term follow-up. For these cancers, we need to follow-up patients for a longer period. Liver cancer Conditional survival for liver cancer was much lower than for other cancers at any stage or age after several years. Even in localised patients, conditional five-year survival was less than 40% after five years. This is probably because many liver cancer patients experienced a recurrence of cancer, or died from liver cirrhosis or liver failure related to the hepatitis B or C virus. Effect of age and stage at diagnosis Trends in conditional survival by age group were quite similar except for liver and prostate cancer. For most cancers, age did not significantly affect conditional survival. In the case of liver cancer, conditional survival for young patients (15–49 years old) was higher than for old patients (60–69 years old) after several years. This could be explained by the fact that the old patients had been exposed to hepatitis viruses for long time; as a result, they tended to develop liver cirrhosis and liver failure more than young patients. Conditional survival of young prostate cancer patients (50–59 years old) was lower than old patients (60–69 years old). This is probably because young patients are diagnosed at a more advanced stage than old patients (the proportion of distant metastasis was 35.2% in 50-59-year-old patients and 28.3% in 60-69-year-old patients). The conditional survival curve was different by stage; stage at diagnosis was an important prognostic factor. Conditional survival for localised patients was stable at 85-95%, while for regional and distant metastasis patients it increased after several years of diagnosis. Trends in conditional survival for breast and colorectal cancer patients in Osaka were similar to other countries (shown in Additional file 1: Figures S1-S4 from Australia [2,6], US [8], Canada [5,11] and European countries [3,9]). Conditional survival for prostate cancer at all stages in Osaka was lower than other countries. This is due to the low proportion of localised patients in Japan compared to other countries. Conditional survival of stomach cancer for all stage and localised in Osaka was higher than in Australia [2]. Stomach cancer patients in Osaka were diagnosed at an earlier stage than in Australia (e.g. 51% patients diagnosed at localised stage in Osaka, 28% in Australia). In addition, approximately half of the stomach cancer patients in Japan were diagnosed at T1 (UICC TNM classification) [23]. Therefore we can estimate a higher proportion of T1 in localised patients in Osaka than in Australia. Higher conditional survival for localised patients can be partly explained by differences in tumour. This may be due to stomach cancer screening programmes [24] and wide use of endoscopy in clinical settings in Japan. Conditional survival of localised lung cancer in Osaka was higher than in other countries. This could be explained by differences in tumour size and histology
  • 9. [25,26]. Conditional survival for liver cancer patients in Canada increased some years after diagnosis [11], while in Osaka it was stable at low survival. This can be explained by the differences in etiological factor among these countries. In the US and Canada, prevalence of hepatitis B or C viruses in liver cancer cases was lower than in Japan [27]. Liver cancer patients in Japan might have greater likelihood of liver failure or hepatitis-related cirrhosis than those in the US and Canada. Conditional five-year survival for stomach and colorectal cancer patients who were alive five years after diagnosis was about 100%; this means those patients have similar survival probability to the general population. Therefore those patients can be considered as ‘cured’. For other sites of cancer, further long-term follow-up time may be needed to estimate ‘cured’ time. Conditional survival is an important statistic for planning long-term life after diagnosis, not only for cancer patients and their families, but also patients with other diseases. However, a population-based disease registry system, such as the population-based cancer registry, is essential to estimate this type of statistic. Conclusion Conditional five-year survival is a relevant figure for long-term cancer survivors in Japan. It is important for population-based cancer registries to provide figures which cancer patients and oncologists really need. Competing interests The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Authors’ contribution YI, TN and HT developed the study concept. YI and IA were responsible for data management and statistical analysis. TN, IM and HT reviewed the clinical background of the results. YI wrote the draft of the report. All authors critically reviewed and revised the manuscript. Acknowledgements We thank Dr Akira Oshima who gave us the concepts of this paper, Dr Julia Mortimer who edited the English in our manuscripts, and all the medical institutes which cooperated by providing data to the population-based cancer registry in Osaka. This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture of Japan [a Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) No. 24701042 to YI] and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan [a Grant- in-Aid for Clinical Cancer Research No. H22-011 to YI, AI, IM and HT, a Health and Labour Sciences Research Grant for the Third Term Comprehensive Control Research for Cancer No. 22091601 to TN, No. H25-008 to YI and AI].
  • 10. References 1. National Research Council: 2 Cancer Survivors. In From Cancer Patient to Cancer Survivor: Lost in Transition. Edited by Hewitt M, Greenfield S, Stovall E. Washington D.C.: The National Academies Press; 2005:23–65. 2. Yu XQ, Baade PD, O’Connell DL: Conditional survival of cancer patients: an Australian perspective. BMC Cancer 2012, 12:460. 3. Allemani C, Minicozzi P, Berrino F, Bastiaannet E, Gavin A, Galceran J, Ameijide A, Siesling S, Mangone L, Ardanaz E, et al: Predictions of survival up to 10 years after diagnosis for European women with breast cancer in 2000–2002. Int J Cancer 2013, 132(10):2404–2412. 4. Abbott AM, Habermann EB, Parsons HM, Tuttle T, Al-Refaie W: Prognosis for primary retroperitoneal sarcoma survivors: a conditional survival analysis. Cancer 2012, 118(13):3321–3329. 5. Ellison LF, Bryant H, Lockwood G, Shack L: Conditional survival analyses across cancer sites. Health Rep 2011, 22(2):21–25. 6. Baade PD, Youlden DR, Chambers SK: When do I know I am cured? Using conditional estimates to provide better information about cancer survival prospects. Med J Aust 2011, 194(2):73–77. 7. Xing Y, Chang GJ, Hu CY, Askew RL, Ross MI, Gershenwald JE, Lee JE, Mansfield PF, Lucci A, Cormier JN: Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma: results from a population-based analysis. Cancer 2010, 116(9):2234–2241. 8. Merrill RM, Hunter BD: Conditional survival among cancer patients in the United States. Oncologist 2010, 15(8):873–882. 9. Janssen-Heijnen ML, Houterman S, Lemmens VE, Brenner H, Steyerberg EW, Coebergh JW: Prognosis for long-term survivors of cancer. Ann Oncol 2007, 18(8):1408–1413. 10. Skuladottir H, Olsen JH: Conditional survival of patients with the four major histologic subgroups of lung cancer in Denmark. J Clin Oncol 2003, 21(16):3035–3040. 11. Bryant H, Lockwood G, Rahal R, Ellison L: Conditional survival in Canada: adjusting patient prognosis over time. Current oncol (Toronto Ont) 2012, 19(4):222–224. 12. The Basic Plan to Promote Cancer Control Programmes. http://www.mhlw.go.jp/shingi/2007/06/dl/s0615-1a.pdf. 13. World Health Organization: International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision.. 14. Berkson J, Gage R: Calculation of survival rates for cancer. Proceed Staff Meeting Mayo Clinic 1950, 25:270–286.
  • 11. 15. Esteve J, Benhamou E, Croasdale M, Raymond L: Relative survival and the estimation of net survival: elements for further discussion. Stat Med 1990, 9(5):529–538. 16. Cancer Research UK Cancer Survival Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine: strel computer program version 1.2.7 for cancer survival analysis. ; 2009. 17. Abridged life tables in Japan for 1962–2011. http://ganjoho.ncc.go.jp/professional/statistics/cohort01.htm. 18. Brenner H, Gefeller O: Deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term patient survival. J Clin Epidemiol 1997, 50(2):211–216. 19. Rubin DB: Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 1987. 20. StataCorp: Stata Statistical Software: Release 12. College Station. TX: StataCorp LP; 2011. 21. Verdecchia A, De Angelis R, Capocaccia R, Sant M, Micheli A, Gatta G, Berrino F: The cure for colon cancer: results from the EUROCARE study. Int J Cancer 1998, 77(3):322–329. 22. Lambert PC, Thompson JR, Weston CL, Dickman PW: Estimating and modeling the cure fraction in population-based cancer survival analysis. Biostatistics 2007, 8(3):576– 594. 23. Isobe Y, Nashimoto A, Akazawa K, Oda I, Hayashi K, Miyashiro I, Katai H, Tsujitani S, Kodera Y, Seto Y, et al: Gastric cancer treatment in Japan: 2008 annual report of the JGCA nationwide registry. Gastric cancer official j Int Gastric Cancer Association Japanese Gastric Cancer Association 2011, 14(4):301–316. 24. Hamashima C, Shibuya D, Yamazaki H, Inoue K, Fukao A, Saito H, Sobue T: The Japanese guidelines for gastric cancer screening. Jpn J Clin Oncol 2008, 38(4):259–267. 25. Toyoda Y, Nakayama T, Ioka A, Tsukuma H: Trends in lung cancer incidence by histological type in Osaka. Japan Jpn J Clin Oncol 2008, 38(8):534–539. 26. Devesa SS, Bray F, Vizcaino AP, Parkin DM: International lung cancer trends by histologic type: male:female differences diminishing and adenocarcinoma rates rising. Int J Cancer 2005, 117(2):294–299. 27. de Martel C, Ferlay J, Franceschi S, Vignat J, Bray F, Forman D, Plummer M: Global burden of cancers attributable to infections in 2008: a review and synthetic analysis. Lancet Oncol 2012, 13(6):607–615.
  • 12. Additional file Additional_file_1 as PDF Additional file 1 Figure S1-S4 comparison of conditional survival between countries, by site and stage.
  • 14. 60 77 87 929597 63 72 80 86 92 95 24 3132333437 26 42 59 71 78 82 858586889092 838183868887 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 012345012345012345 012345012345012345 StomachColon/RectumLiver LungBreastProstate Conditional five−year survival (%) YearsafterdiagnosisFigure2
  • 15. 62 78 88 93 95 96 58 74 85 91 94 96 62 70 77 85 90 94 64 73 81 87 92 95 24 39 43 48 46 52 24 30 30 29 31 32 28 45 63 75 81 86 24 38 56 68 74 77 87 86 86 88 90 91 87 86 88 89 92 94 76 72 74 79 82 84 85 84 86 87 89 89 020406080100 020406080100 020406080100 020406080100 020406080100 020406080100 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Stomach Colon/Rectum Liver Lung Breast Prostate 15−49 50−59 60−69 Conditionalfive−yearsurvival(%) Years after diagnosis Figure 3
  • 16. 9494 9696 9797 9898 9999 9999 4141 5252 6565 7676 8484 8989 44 99 1818 3636 4646 5555 9292 9292 9393 9494 9696 9898 5757 6161 6868 7777 8585 9090 1111 1919 3030 4343 5353 7070 3333 3434 3535 3434 3535 3737 99 1818 2222 2626 3535 3636 11 55 44 44 77 1212 7373 7777 8282 8585 8888 8989 2121 2828 4444 5858 6868 7474 44 1010 1818 3434 4242 5252 9696 9595 9595 9595 9696 9696 7979 7777 7777 8080 8383 8585 2424 2424 2727 3030 3636 4646 9999 9999 100100 9999 9999 9696 8383 7979 8282 8383 8484 8484 3939 3434 3737 4343 4646 4949 020406080100 020406080100 020406080100 020406080100 020406080100 020406080100 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Stomach Colon/Rectum Liver Lung Breast Prostate Localised Regional Distant Conditionalfive−yearsurvival(%) Years after diagnosis Figure 4
  • 17. Additional files provided with this submission: Additional file 1: 1543342963948136_add1.pdf, 91K http://www.biomedcentral.com/imedia/2080047110102391/supp1.pdf