SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 57
Baixar para ler offline
MEDIA INDUSTRY ANALYSIS:

Evaluating the past and thoughts on
the future

Yujin Chung
Special thanks for supporting this project!

           •      Professor Hosanagar, faculty sponsor
           •      Chris Farmer, advisor and fmr Bessemer Ventures
           •      Joshua Auerbach, Betaworks
           •      Gil Beyda, Genacast Ventures
           •      Carter Brokaw, Meebo
           •      Eric Von Coelln, Insidefacebook.com
           •      Ronny Conway, Andreesen Horowitz
           •      Art Chang, Tipping Point Partners
           •      Andrew Chung, Lightspeed Ventures
           •      Tsvi Gal, Exigen Capital, fmr Warner Music CTO
           •      Greg Fodor, Adtuitive CTO
           •      Jonathan Knee, Evercore Partners
           •      Moshe Koyfman, Spark Capital
           •      Justin Nesci, SocialMedia.com
           •      Trevor Oelschig, Bessemer Ventures
           •      David Pakman, Venrock
           •      Dustin Rosen, Mailroom Fund
           •      Douglas Shapiro, Time Warner, fmr Banc of America Securities
           •      Paul Vidich, Betaworks Advisor, fmr head of Warner Music Digital Strategy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Agenda


           • Executive Summary / Thoughts on Investment & Acquisition

           • Historical Analysis (2000-2009)

           • Mobile Applications Industry Analysis

           • Social Media Industry Analysis




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Executive Summary
       •     Media conglomerate shareholder performance has largely underperformed due to poor acquisitions and inability to adapt to
             open distribution model of the internet
             • Most acquisitions driven by desire to acquire audience but not having expertise to retain or monetize audience
             • Inability to innovate traditional content products leads to price erosion and declining sales windows
                   •    Continued call for consumer payment via subscription (e.g. Hulu, paywalls for WSJ.com, etc.) are unlikely to be successful
             •     Recently announced magazine consortium represents new approach at preventing intermediary (e.g. YouTube) from
                   usurping audience
                   •    Unclear if publishers have technical expertise to develop digital product to drive consumer willingness to pay
             •     New models of content aggregation, search optimization, and publishing by Demand Media and AOL may prove
                   profitable, but will likely litter the web with ―crap content‖
                   •    Question remains of creating premium product / service for traditional content – closest proxy has been iTunes digital albums


       •     Mobile apps show great promise despite inherent structural challenges
             • Ecosystem has recently evolved toward setting foundation for real, possibly sustainable growth:
                    •     Monetization: emerging mobile advertising (Admob), micropayments (storefront)
                    •     Feature-rich platforms (iTunes / Android / WebOS) on robust device hardware
                    •     Data plans whose focus is away from carrier “walled gardens”
             •     Still no transparent scorecard for ―best‖ developers; closed ecosystem for dominant app distributor (iTunes); bandwidth
                   issues; and extremely low barriers to entry
             •     Investment framework can be based around native phone features, cloud computing infrastructure, and in-app
                   purchases
             •     Apple‘s purchase of lala may introduce robust cloud platform development AND improved social functionality for content
                   and applications

       •     Certain categories within social gaming are attractive for investment
             • Emergent demand for less time-intensive, lower engagement, and gaming-as-a-service models
                   •    High DAU/MAU or ―stickyness factor‖ above ~15% appears to represents sustainable audience for monetization
             •     Microtransactions and early advertising efforts (―cost per installation‖) have proven successful for Zynga and other
                   players
             •     Large opportunities remain as games evolve in sophistication and users become more open toward offering greater access
                   to profile data
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Thoughts on Investment & Acquisition
                                                                      Early Stage                                               Growth Equity                                         Strategic Acquisition

                                                 • Along with cloud computing, native                          • Developer business models still too                     • Strategic partnership and licensing more
                                                   features, and in-app purchases, smart                         fledging to be considered sustainable,                    advantageous given hit-driven nature of
                                                   developers will have instinct for anticipating                so unlikely to find immediate growth                      business
                                                   iPhone feature release                                        equity prospects                                             • Opportunity for franchise game
     Thesis:                                          • Given time lag of app store approval,                  • Still, opportunities likely in 8-12 months                     branding still available (e.g. sports,
  Cross Platform                                        first to market presents real strategic                  for growth equity may include:                                 Halo)
                                                        advantage by weakening competitive                          • Productivity, business, and                             • Strategic value-add through
• Winning on                                            response                                                        reference verticals offer better                        marketing/promotion
  ALL platforms,                                      • Smule good example of developer who                             retention and pricing than other                      • But risks also follow as strategics
                                                        understands this dynamic (and recently                          categories                                              likely to overprice for content from
  not just A
                                                        closed Series B funding)                                    • Proven game developers (e.g.                              legacy contracts and demand
  platform
                                                 • Micromap updating also potentially                                   Ngmoco, Geared by Bryan                                 unrecoupable upfront royalties
  • Mobile,                        Mobile
                                                   disruptive to incumbent GPS players                                  Mitchell) with loyal fanbases,                   • Location awareness also presents new
    online, AND                                       • Waze is good example of user-                                   proven sales, and expansive themes                 product development paths, e.g.
    offline                                             generated map updating                                          may be viable candidates for                       coupons, dating, dining, etc.
                                                 • Freemium model executed via in-app                                   expansion capital                                     • Online incumbents with broad
• Becoming a                                       purchases showing early promise -                                • As mobile audiences achieve                               audiences, data, and other assets
  part of your                                     Tapulous (Tap Tap Revenge) , Ngmoco                                  saturation, successful mobile                           may find acquisition for access to
  life, not just                                   (Eliminator)                                                         developers will need capital to                         mobile channel attractive
  thrown away                                         • Focus on churn, usage patterns, and                             expand online to social, real-time,              • More likely opportunity through
  • Tailored                                            retaining early traffic; similar to social                      etc.                                               speculated release of tablet devices
     experience                                         gaming, look for replication of                                                                                      • More robust form of monetization
     based on                                           development process and mastery of                                                                                      provided tablet offers innovative
     device, but                                        social, viral aspects                                                                                                   native features
     synched via                                 • Developer space currently led by Zynga,                     • Mobile / online payments may be open                    • Media incumbents may continue
     internet                                      Playdom, and Playfish,                                        to growth equity investment as business                   acquisitions similar to EA / Playfish
     connection                                      • Audience size, stickiness                                 models mature given need to acquire                         • Zynga / Playdom unlikely to be
                                                        (DAU/MAU), and monetization                              carrier and distribution partners                             purchased except for extremely high
• New business                                          efficiency are key metrics in evaluating                    • Somewhat validated by Boku’s                             prices
  models                                                players                                                       acquisitions of Paymo and other                        • Recent funding rounds and
  • e.g. purchase                                    • Concern now around ―spamming the                               small mobile payment players                             acquisitions have also set high
    options mixed                                       feed‖                                                       • Looming giant Paypal presents                            price per unique (~$5/MAU)
                                  Social
    w/ localized                                 • Virtual goods / in-game transactions                               market risk but also exit thesis                   • Social and display ad networks
                                  Gaming
    advertising                                    continue to grow given evolving game                        • Bootstrapped developers interested in                     experiencing consolidation as well
    optimized                                      sophistication                                                liquidity and expansion e.g. Playdom                        • Teracent / Google
    against social                                   • Live Gamer and Playspan are well-                            • Proven successes on social platform                    • AdLink / Hi-Media
    data                                                capitalized players with experienced                          but future growth from cross                           • SocialMedia.com / AdKnowledge
                                                        management                                                    platform (e.g. mobile, independent
                                                     • International perspective, e.g. Live                           URL) and cross-promotion of
                                                        Gamer’s purchase of N-Cash, Korean                            genre titles
                                                        payment solution provider
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Agenda


           • Executive Summary / Investment Frameworks

           • Historical Analysis (2000-2009)

           • Mobile Applications Industry Analysis

           • Social Media Industry Analysis




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           6
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
The modern media conglomerate is typified by scale and
           centralized ownership via the ―Mogul‖
                                                 Controlling Mogul /                                                               Revenue by Conglomerate
                                                        CEO                                                                     Weighted Average Revenue CAGR
                                                                                                                             Across Conglomerate (2000-2008): 9.7%
                                                   Sumner Redstone /
                                                     Les Moonves

                                                     Rupert Murdoch /
                                                     Rupert Murdoch


                                                     / Jeffrey Bewkes


                                                   Sumner Redstone /
                                                    Philippe Dauman

                                                      Roberts Family /
                                                       Brian Roberts


                                                  / Jean-Bernard Lévy


                                                         / Robert Iger



                                                                                                                                                Billions


    Source: Curse of the Mogul, Jonathan Knee; Boldface represents broadly held public companies; Vivendi values converted to dollars using historical exchange rate; 2000 value for                                       7
         Viacom actually 2002; 2000 value for CBS actually 2003; substitutions made due to data availability
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Their ownership expansion has been impressive, with
           properties ranging from content to distribution

                   Distribution                                                                                                                                                                                   Content
                                                                                                                       Online
                                  Satellite            Radio
                      Cable                 TV Broad-                    Cable         TV         News-               Content /  Mag.                Video       Business Book                                       Movie /
                                  Broad-              Broad-                                                  e-Comm.                                                                       Music        Sports
                     System                  casting                    Channel      Network      papers               Social   Publish.             Games         Info   Publish.                                  TV Studio
                                  casting             casting
                                                                                                                      Network




    Source: Curse of the Mogul, Jonathan Knee                                                                                                                                                                              8
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
But their stock performance has been disappointing


                       Stock Price Performance Past Nine Years                                                                       Stock Price Performance Past Three Years
                                 (1/1/2000 – 8/31/2009)                                                                                        (5/16/2006 – 8/31/2009)




                                                                       Conglomerate Avg: (47.5)
                                                                                                                                                                                       Conglomerate Avg: (31.8)




    Note: Conglomerate average calculated as straight average of stock price performance                                                                                                                                   9
    Source: Yahoo Finance; prices adjusted for dividends and stock splits;
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Both the ―Mogul Effect‖ and the Internet
           contribute to this underperformance
               ―Mogul Effect‖ (Internal)                                                                                   Internet (External)


                                     Content                                                           Packaging                                                                 Retail

                      • Creative data production                                            • Aggregation                                                        • Delivery to final customer
                                                                                            • Marketing / Promotion
                                                                                            • Wholesale distribution

           • Inability to consistently choose ―hits,‖                           • Lowered barriers to entry given                                    • Pricing power is weakened in a
             leaving revenue generation to be                                     continued launches of improving online                               digital world
             largely unscalable                                                   ventures

                                                                                • Fast growth incentivizes new entrants                              • Release windows are shortened
                                                                                  to attack incumbents                                                 online as well




                                                                                             Mergers / Acquisitions

                                                                            • Overpaying for acquisitions
                                                                            • Overestimation of synergies
                                                                            • Acquisition for growth, not strategic rationale


                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10
    Source: Framework provided by Curse of the Mogul, Jonathan Knee
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Market share volatility implies conglomerates are more
           lucky than skilled in picking ―winners‖
                                                                                                                                                                            Content         Packaging Distribution

                                                                                                                                                                             Poor M&A across the value chain




                            Absolute Market Share of                                                 Share                              Absolute Market Share of                                                    Share
                               Top Music Labels                                                     Change                                 Top Movie Studios                                                       Change



                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2.7
                                                                                                        0.9

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4.7

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8.0
                                                                                                        4.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        6.8
                                                                                                        9.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4.8
                                                                                                        5.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5.8


                                                                                         Average:       5.2                                                                                              Average:       4.5




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           11
    Source: www.the-numbers.com; absolute market share defined as normalized market share of top studio / music labels; absolute share change < 4 implies share instability
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Most conglomerate shareholders would have been
           better off without big mergers / acquisitions…
                                                                                                                                                                             Content        Packaging Distribution

                                                                                              Share Price ($ / Share)
                                                                                                                                                                                    Mergers / Acquisitions




    Source: ―Hey Big Media: The Jig is Up on Big Media Mergers,‖ Bank of America Securities, Douglas Shapiro, July 7, 2004
    Assumptions behind analysis: 1) legacy businesses growing only at average secular growth rates over the period; 2) assumed that all free cash flow that would have been thrown off by these theoretical companies
    would have been used only to pay down debt or accrued as cash 3) increased the share base of each by 4% per year to account for options issuance, a much more rapid rate of options dilution than actually occurred
    (under the rationale that these ―hypothetical‖ companies would have experienced better stock performance over the period); and 4) to arrive at the current price of the hypothetical company, only the current multiple 12
    of each company is applied, even though a better capital allocation track record over the last few years would have arguably resulted in a higher multiple.
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
…though they did help ―grow the empire,‖ these deals
           generally hurt the share price…
                                                                                                                                                                             Content        Packaging Distribution

                                                                                                                                                                                    Mergers / Acquisitions




     Acquisitions




     Why they worked for
     the mogul
        Revenue impact                                 +475%                                       +159%                                          +138%                                           +239%
        from deals
        EBITDA impact                                  +320%                                       +162%                                          +153%                                           +233%
        from deals
     Why they didn’t                      • Cable network cashflow                 • While ABC / Fox Family                       • AOL-Time Warner                              • Decline of cable public
     work for share                         would have been used                     performance suffered,                          synergies greatly                              market values (versus cash
     holders                                more effectively to pay                  ESPN performed much                            overestimated                                  paid for asset)
                                            down debt or simply                      better than expected
                                            accrued as cash                                                                                                                      • Additional capital deployed
                                                                                                                                                                                   (not included in purchase
                                                                                                                                                                                   price) to pay for upgrade
     Share price impact                                (121%)                                        +4%                                          (150%)                                          (27%)
     from deals

    Source: ―Hey Big Media: The Jig is Up on Big Media Mergers,‖ Bank of America Securities, Douglas Shapiro, July 7, 2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           13
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
…and yet these same firms continued to
           engage in questionable acquisitions
                                                                                                                                                                             Content        Packaging Distribution

                                                                                                                                                                                    Mergers / Acquisitions




           Deals




                                  Bebo                                                          IGN                                                          CNET
                                  • Overpaid for asset ($850M) relative to                      • Overpaid for asset ($650M)                                 • Overpaid for asset in sole bidder
                                    revenue ($20M) and EBITDA ($5M) at                          • CEO (then COO of Fox Interactive                             situation ($1.8B)
                                    time of acquisition                                           Media) left soon after acquisition                         • Executives admit having ―overpaid‖
                                  • Now being actively sold off                                                                                                for asset

           Outcome                                                                              MySpace                                                      Last.fm
                                                                                                • Google search deals, while initially                       • Overpaid for asset ($280M)
                                                                                                  lucrative, will not be renewed                             • Apparent competition with existing
                                                                                                • ―Lost‖ social network war to Facebook                        CBS online radio asset
                                                                                                • Repositioning site as music portal                         • Inability to monetize effectively




                                                  Growth equity thesis of “buying, then selling to eyeballs” largely unproven

    Note: Curse of the Mogul; Newsblogs                                                                                                                                                                                    14
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
The Internet has allowed the proliferation of open
           distribution and socialization of content…
                                                                                                                                                                             Content       Packaging       Distribution

                                                                                                                                                                             Poor M&A across the value chain



                                                             Web 1.0                                                    Web 2.0                                                   Web 3.0?



   Streaming                                                                                                                                                                        ???



   Downloads                                                                                                                                                                        ???


   File-sharing                                                                                                                                                                     ???


   Social Networks                                                                                                                                                                  ???


                                                                         Ease of content sharing leading to loss of willingness to pay


                                                                                                  Lower barriers of entry over time
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           15
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
…leading to weakening pricing power…

                                                                                                                                                                             Content        Packaging Distribution

                                                                                                                                                                             Poor M&A across the value chain

                                     Average Music Retail Pricing                                                                       Average Advertising Revenue per Hour




                                       Average Retail Book Pricing                                                                                 Average Price per DVD Title




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           16
    Source: RIAA; BlackArrow; Fordham University, Marketing Department; MPAA 2007 Industry Report
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
…and shorter content release windows.

                                                                                                                                                                             Content        Packaging Distribution

                                                                                                                                                                             Poor M&A across the value chain




            Median period of Album Release “Heat Period”*                                                                                   Movie Studio Release Windows




    Source: National Association of Theater Owners (NATO); Soundscan                                                                                                                                                       17
    * ―Heat Period‖ defined as length of time album sales stay above 20% of initial peak volume
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Thoughts on adapting in today‘s environment

                                     Content                                                           Packaging                                                                 Retail

                      • Creative data production                                            • Aggregation                                                        • Delivery to final customer
                                                                                            • Marketing / Promotion
                                                                                            • Wholesale distribution

           • Focus on areas with potential product                              • Leverage viewer base, e.g. hybrid                                 • Deeply integrate with Social
             extensions less sensitive to erosion                                 professional, for low cost content                                  Network Platforms
                      • Products with merchandise                               • Search optimize, and eventually                                              • Facebook Connect, Twitter
                        extensions                                                ―social optimize,‖ content for                                                 API, Friend Connect
                                                                                  discovery
                      • Increase product placement                                                                                                             • Additional API‘s as
                        and other embedded ads                                                                                                                   launched: foursquare,
                                                                                                                                                                 gowalla, etc.
           • Control content creation and                                                                                                           • Develop consumer-focused data
             acquisition costs                                                                                                                        strategy
           • Recognize devaluation of content and                                                                                                              • Build relationship on
             accept depressed pricing                                                                                                                            access, not ownership

                                                                                             Mergers / Acquisitions

                                                            • Streamline business (not corporate) development process
                                                                        • Accelerate dealflow and deal signing
                                                                        • Goals are new partners AND new learning
                                                                        • Accelerate rights expansion and terms with content makers
                                                                        • Engage in experimental deals with innovative but unproven players

    Source: Framework provided by Curse of the Mogul, Jonathan Knee
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           18
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Demand Media: Next Gen Media Conglomerate?
           Generates revenue by focusing on search and volume

                                                                                                       Content


                                                                         Valuation Algorithm
                                                                         • Determines what articles to produce
                                                                         • Estimates search term‘s Lifetime Value

                           User                                          Knowledge Engine
                                                                                                                                                                                     Packaging

                                    +                                    • Generates title ideas by combing through search
                                                                           queries that have included that term
                                                                         • Reviews term and converts to real title
                                                                                                                                                             Upload
                                                                         Freelance writer spots title and writes article                                     • Copyeditor reads article, makes fixes, and
                                                                                                                                                               uploads back to Demand Studios



                                                                                                                          Publishing /
                                                      Discover y / Analytics
                                                                                                                          Distribution


                                            Search-based                                                 Publishing
                                            • Tied to Google adwords and SEM /                           • Article appears on Demand Media's
                                              SEO rankings                                                 network of sites and partners
                                                                                                         • Verticalized distribution based on
                                                                                                           audience interest
                                                                                                         Monetization
                                                                                                         • Ad clicks result in revenue generation
                                                                                                           for Demand Media and Google



Source: Wired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Betaworks: focuses on funding and operating
           on real-time startups
                                                                                            Verticalized Distribution




                                                                                                                                                                                            Verticalized
                               Discovery /                                                                   Packaging                                                                      Distribution
                                Analytics




                                   Content From USER




                                      Search /
                                      Discovery




                                                                                                                                                        Content
                                                                                                                                                      From USER
                                                                                            Verticalized
                                                                                               Retail
         Source: Betaworks site                                                                                                                                                                                            20
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
The next generation of the web is becoming
           more Social, Mobile, & Real-Time
                                                                                                                              Internet Era



                                   Traditional
                                                                     Portal                                 Search                               Social                                     Mobile
                                  (TV / Radio /
                                                                  (Yahoo / AOL)                            (Google)                        (Facebook / Twitter)                        (iPhone/ Android)
                                   Newspaper)

   Content                  • Passive                      • Passive                            • Active                                • Interactive, user                     • Wide range of
   Control                  • Professional                 • Specialized                        • User generated                          generated                               developers


   Discovery                • Mass                         • Prominent page                     • Search-driven                         • Recommendation                        • iTunes / Android app
                              marketing                      placement                                                                  • Reference                               store
                            • Word of mouth                                                                                                                                     • Other apps (e.g.
                                                                                                                                                                                  Chorus)

   Monetization • Classified ads                           • Banners ads                        • Text ads                              • Social ads                            • Purchase
                • Mass-market                              • Light targeting                    • Targeted based on                     • Targeted via social                   • Subscription?
                • Generic                                  • Light context                        search                                  relevance                             • Mobile advertising
                                                                                                • Contextual to                         • Contextual on
                                                                                                  previous behavior                       relationship
                                                                                                                                        • Virtual goods
                                                                                                                                        • Microtransactions

   Data lag                 • Days                         • Hours                              • Minutes                               • Real-time                             • Real-time


   Analytics                • Broad samples                • Pageviews                          • Uniques                               • Uniques                               • Geo-targeted /
                            • Focus groups                 • Uniques                            • Duration                              • Retweet                                 location-based
                                                           • Cost per                           • Cost per Action                       • Relevance
                                                             Thousand                                                                                                                                                      21
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Agenda


           • Executive Summary / Thoughts on Investment & Acquisition

           • Historical Analysis (2000-2009)

           • Mobile Applications Industry Analysis

           • Social Media Industry Analysis




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           22
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Apple‘s release of the iPhone and iTouch have
           been met with groundbreaking growth




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           23
    Source: Mary Meeker, ―Economy and Internet Trends‖ Oct 20, 2009
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
AT&T DataTraffic has surged, implying underlying
           demand for bandwidth consumptive applications




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           24
    Source: Mary Meeker, ―Economy and Internet Trends‖ Oct 20, 2009
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
iTunes simplifies the act of mobile purchase…




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           25
    Source: Mary Meeker, ―Economy and Internet Trends‖ Oct 20, 2009
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
…leading to the growth of a paid mobile ecosystem




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           26
    Source: Mary Meeker, ―Economy and Internet Trends‖ Oct 20, 2009
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Morgan Stanley estimates mobile app market to be
           $5.3B by 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           27
    Source: Admob; Yankee Group
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
iTunes App Store has become a fast growing
           ecosystem, with over 83,000 applications
                                                                                                                                                                                                               100,000+
                                                                                                                                                                                                83,438

                                                                                                                                                                                      75,069

                                                                                                                                                                             65,173

                                                                                                                                                                  55,047

                                                                                                                                                      44,869
                                                                                                                                            37,366
                                                                                                                                 29,743
                                                                                                                 22,820
                                                                                                            17,422




 Source: 148apps.com                                                                                                                                                                                                       28
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Pricing spans a variety of points, though nearly
           half of all App Store applications priced at $0.99
                                                                                            iTunes App Store Pricing




 Source: 148apps.com; as of Sept ‗09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           29
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Categories vary by loyalty and frequency of use
                                                                                          Frequency vs. Retention



                                                                                                                                                                                            News
                                                                                                                                                                 Sports                     Medical
                                                                                                                                                                            Business



                                                                                              Social
                                                                                                                              Utilities
                                                         Books                              Networking                                                                       Weather
     Frequency of Use




                                                                                                                                                                                              Health Care /
                                                                                                                                                              Finance                           Fitness
                                                                                                                                               Travel
         Per week




                                                                                            Entertainment                     Games
                                                                                                                                                                       Music                Reference



                                                                                                                                                                                                      Productivity
                                                                                                                                                                           Education

                            Lifestyle                                                                                                                                     Navigation




                                                                                                   30 Day Retention

Source: 148apps.com; as of Sept ‘09; size of bubble denotes # of apps offered
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Pricing and Retention appear to be correlated
                                                                                            Retention vs. Pricing



                                                                                    Books
                                                                                   Weather                                                                    Navigation              • Subscription model
                                                      News
                                                                                                                                                                                        possible?
                                                                                                          Games Sports                             Productivity
                                                                                 Education
                                                                                                    Finance                                                        Business
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Focus on verticals
       30 Day Retention




                                                                                                                                                    Reference

                                                                             Health Care
                                                                              / Fitness                  Music

                                                                         Social Travel
                                                                       Networking



                                                                       Utilities
                                                                                                   • Developers should focus on
                                        Entertainment
                                                                                                     creating sustainable process
                                                                                                     around frequent app release
                                               Lifestyle
                                                                                                   • Cross-sell apps aggressively




                                                                                                       Avg Price

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           31
Source: 148apps.com; Flurry.com; as of Sept ‘09; Medical category excluded (avg price: $7.90, retention: 43%)
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Gaming apps are fragmented and hit driven,
           with high turnover among the top ten lists
                                                                                                                  iPhone Paid App Rankings (Apps in April - June)




                                                                                                                  iPhone Paid App Rankings (lasting three months or later)




                                                                                                 iPhone Paid App Rankings (Apps lasting three months or longer)




                                   Fragmentation                                                                                Apps do not sustain ranked
                                                                                                                           placement for more than three months                                                            32
 Source: Distimo
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
iFund developer recipients focus on interactivity
           and gaming
  Name                             Category               Description                                                                                            Unique Features

  Booyah                           Location-based         Booyahs are topnotch industry vets from a wide range of entertainment, media, • User engagement through "real-life" games
                                   Social Network         and technology fields who have combined their talents to create something       and "boo-yah" moments, which are then
                                                          larger than themselves. At Booyah, we believe that we can inspire personal      recorded and tracked as data
                                                          discovery and change lives. We spend our days thinking of ways to catalyze
                                                          mass action, and we spend our nights turning those dreams into reality.

                                   Texting                Your friends, family, and even the family cat (if they can do so)...can text the                       • Enabling txt as notification technology for
                                                          keyword of your TXTsite to the GOGII phone number, 60611, and they                                       access, content, and referral
                                                          immediately receive the TXTsite, which consists of the information that you
                                                          placed on it, with menu choices. From here, they can choose to receive text
          (Gogii)                                         updates, link to a website, download a video, or forward the site to a friend. It's
                                                          like navigating a website, but all in text.

                                   Remote control         Stay connected in real-time to what matters most—family, property, home,                               • Remote access, broadband home
                                                          and business—from anywhere in the world, anytime, day or night.                                          management

                                   Location-based         On the intersection of mobile and the physical world. Its goal is to drastically                       • Unclear, though founders have strong
                                                          improve the experience of consumers on that intersection.                                                gaming and software development
                                                                                                                                                                   experience

                                   Gaming                 The iPhone can give you all the gaming goodness from arcade to adventure,                              • Robust, high end gaming
                                                          from puzzle to platformer & from shooter to sudoku - but it can also give you                          • Traditionally high price points but recently
                                                          games that you've never seen before - Alternate & augmented reality games,                               released in-app purchases for virtual goods
                                                          mobile social experiences, games that use multi-touch, accelerometers, gps,                              and microtransactions
                                                          the camera, your media and your friends to bring you amazing new                                       • Rapid release model
                                                          experiences.

                                   Location-based         Pelago is committed to developing innovative products that bring the power of                          • User engagement through everyday
                                   Social Network         online information to everyday life in the physical world. Their flagship product,                       celebration
                                                          Whrrl v2.0, lets people capture and share the stories of their lives, one moment
                                                          at a time.

                                   Music ID               The launch pad to our success has been our core music recognition                                      • Premium and free models (freemium)
                                   service                technology that enables anyone with a mobile phone to identify music that is                           • No content licensing
                                                          playing - even under noisy conditions - wherever they are, simply by
                                                          Shazaming it. This clip is run through our database of over 8 million tracks
                                                          (which extends back to the '50s) to find an exact fingerprint match.                                                                                             33
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Cloud data / processing + native iphone features + in-
           app purchases = Preliminary Investment Thesis

              Cloud Computing                                                                  Native Features                                                                 In-app purchases

                                                                                             Photo                    Video



                                                                                                                               Compass




                                                                         +             Music
                                                                                                                               Location
                                                                                                                               awareness                   +
                                                                                                     Voice recognition
                                                                                                                               Touchscreen
     (Heavy Data / Processing Requirements)


                                                                                       Txt/MMS                                                                          (Pseudo subscription / service model)
                                                                                                                              Accelerometer

                                                                                                          Voice




                                                                                         Mobile App
                                                                                    Investment Framework
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           34
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Structure brainstorming identifies virtual tag, real-time translation,
           and micro-windowed mobile coupons as having potential
                                                                   Native Features                                                 Cloud Features


                                                                                      Location /
                Vertical              Multimedia          Touchscreen                                        Voice         Cloud Processing / Data                                Possible Concepts
                                                                                      Compass
    Games                                    x                                              x                                                                       Virtual tag / virtual easter egg hunt

    Travel                                                          x                       x                                                x                      Local, interactive maps for malls, parks, etc.

    Education                                                       x                                                                                               Digital flipcards

    Utilities                                x                                                                                               x                      Visual authentication

    Utilities                                x                                                                                               x                      Visual transcription

    Utilities                                x                      x                                                                                               Remote control webcam and monitoring

    Music                                    x                                                                                               x                      Song identification (Shazam)

    Sports                                                                                  x                                                                       Real-time, location-based rooting

    Productivity                             x                                                                   x                          X                       Real-time language translator

    Productivity                             x                                                                   x                           x                      Voice / language transcription

    Business                                                                                x                                                x                      Real-time, micro-windowed mobile coupons

    Healthcare & Fitness                                                                    x                                                x                      Augmented reality workouts

    News                                                                                    x                                                x                      Real-time, hyperlocal news

                                                                                                                                                                    Location-based social networking
    Social Networking                        x                      x                       x
                                                                                                                                                                    (Foursquare)

    Finance                                  x                                              x                                                                       Digital payment and authentication

                                                                                                                                                                    Emergency alert; health insurance and e-
    Medical                                                                                 x                                                x
                                                                                                                                                                    record access
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           35
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Agenda


           • Executive Summary / Thoughts on Investment & Acquisition

           • Historical Analysis (2000-2009)

           • Mobile Applications Industry Analysis

           • Social Media Industry Analysis




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           36
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Social networking is a global phenomenon…




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           37
    Source: Mary Meeker, ―Mobile Internet Themes,‖ Dec 2009
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
…with social gaming becoming an emerging
           sub-industry for Facebook app developers




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           38
    Source: Mary Meeker, ―Mobile Internet Themes,‖ Dec 2009
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
In only two years, the social gaming Market is
           estimated to grow to $2.2B; the virtual goods
           market is estimated to grow to $2.0B…




                                  2012: $2.2B                                                                                                       2012: $2.0B
                                                                                                                                                    2013: $2.4B                                                            39
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
…with room to grow as users shift their time and
           advertisers shift their spend to internet applications

                                                                                                                                                                           Lag driven by:

                                                                                                                                                                              • Challenges in
                                                                                                                                                                                managing spend and
                                                                                                                                                                                performance in a
                                                                                                                                                                                variety of mediums
                                                                                                                                                                                (vs. lump sum
                                                                                                                                                                                payment to a mass
                                                                                                                                                                                aggregator like a TV
                                                                                                                                                                                station)

                                                                                                                                                                              • Low costs of social
                                                                                                                                                                                media distribution and
                                                                                                                                                                                tracking

                                                                                                                                                                              • Still relatively new
                                                                                                                                                                                (even considered
                                                                                                                                                                                experimental), spend
                                                                                                                                                                                not yet formalized as
                                                                                                                                                                                line item in CMO
                                                                                                                                                                                budgets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           40
    Source: Mary Meeker, ―Mobile Internet Themes,‖ Dec 2009; Knowledge@Wharton
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
The Social Gaming Ecosystem is robust with roughly
         300 firms and $1.5B invested across multiple categories
                                                  Social Gaming Firms                                                                                    Venture Capital Dollars ($MM)
                                                         N=308                                                                                              Total: $1.5B* invested




 Source: Social Gaming Summit 2009, Crunchbase, Company Websites, Press Releases, LinkedIn profiles of founders                                                                                                            41
 *Over past three years
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
While many categories have been funded,
           entrepreneurs continue to start firms
                                                                                      Total Number of Firms



               61        20       15        10        5        8         4        4         5        3         6        2        3         3        2         3        2         2        1        1           Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Firms




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Funded
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Firms




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Unfunded
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Firms




 Source: Social Gaming Summit 2009, Crunchbase, Company Websites, Press Releases, LinkedIn profiles of founders
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           42
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
More funding does not necessarily translate into
              bigger user bases (1 of 2)
  Firm              Funding Investors                                Description                                                                               CEO                      MAU             DAU DAU / MAU
  Playdom                $43M NEA, Lightspeed, Norwest               Playdom is game developer with a focus on social, online games. The                       John               14,416,661       2,119,342            14.7%
                                                                     company has a number of popular titles on the iPhone, Myspace, and                        Pleasants
                                                                     Facebook.

  Zynga                  $39.0 Reid Hoffman, Avalon                  Zynga is a network of gaming applications built off of classic games like                 Mark             185,624,645      53,399,185             28.8%
                               Ventures, Clarium Capital,            Poker, Battleship, and Attack!. The games are found on social networks like               Pincus
                               Foundry Group, Pilot Group,           Facebook and Bebo.
                               Union Square Ventures, Peter          In addition to making their own games, the company has created a network
                               Thiel, Bob Pittman, Andy              which allows third party developers to become part of the Zynga network.
                               Russell, Brad Feld, Kleiner
                               Perkins,
  playfirst              $26.5 Mayfield, Trinity Ventures, PlayFirst is a casual gaming startup, based out of San Francisco. is focused                        John Welch               3,185             174             5.5%
                               Rustic Canyon Partners, DCM on creating ―shared casual game experiences around lasting original brands‖
                                                           that includes game play ―rich in story and character.‖ PlayFirst titles include
                                                           Wedding Dash, Chocolatier, and Dream Chronicles.
  Playfish               $21.0 Accel Partners, Index                 Playfish is a creator of social games for friends to play together over social Kristian                      60,212,645     13,381,393             22.2%
                               Ventures                              platforms such as Facebook, MySpace, Bebo, Google, iPhone and Android.         Segerstrale
                                                                     Each of the company‘s seven games has been a top 10 hit on Facebook,
                                                                     including Pet Society, which is the platform‘s most popular game and enjoyed
                                                                     by more than 11 million people every month.
  Challenge              $14.5 Sequoia, Globespan                    Challenge Games creates online social games that are fun and easy to play                 Andrew                   1,983             159             8.0%
  Games                                                              whether you‘re a serious or casual gamer. Tapping the capabilities of social              Busey
                                                                     networks, Challenge Games helps people play with and against friends.
  Citizen                $10.0 Radar Partners                        Citizen Sports offers a number of web applications that allow for interaction             Mike Kerns          1,159,016          98,937              8.5%
  Sports                                                             between fans. They also are the creators of Protrade.com, where users can
                                                                     buy, sell, and trade their favorite sports figures as they try to win money.
  SuperSecret            $10.0 Freestyle Capital, Opus               SuperSecret.com is an online social game for tweens who are ready to move                 Ted Barnett                 NA              NA
                               Capital                               on from Club Penguin or Webkinz, but are too young for World of Warcraft or
                                                                     Facebook. The company actively involves tweens in product design to create
                                                                     an engaging experience available online, and its proprietary World Builder™
                                                                     platform allows SuperSecret to quickly and easily expand game content to
                                                                     keep up with the imagination and skills of its tween audience.
  RotoHog.com             $8.0 Allen & Co., DFJ Dragonfund,          RotoHog.com is the provider and developer of fantasy sports with current                  Kelly                      443                8            1.8%
                               Mission Ventures, SCP                 partners like NBA.com, Turner Digital, Pro Football Weekly, LG Electronics                Perdew
                               Worldwide, Jeff Fluhr                 and Grupo RBS in Brazil. RotoHog is a product of Sports Composite DE, is
                                                                     privately held, and based in Los Angeles, CA.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           43
 Source: Social Gaming Summit 2009, Crunchbase, Company Websites, Press Releases, LinkedIn profiles of founders; MAU: Monthly Avg Users; DAU: Daily Avg Users
This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming
Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Último

Raspberry Pi 5: Challenges and Solutions in Bringing up an OpenGL/Vulkan Driv...
Raspberry Pi 5: Challenges and Solutions in Bringing up an OpenGL/Vulkan Driv...Raspberry Pi 5: Challenges and Solutions in Bringing up an OpenGL/Vulkan Driv...
Raspberry Pi 5: Challenges and Solutions in Bringing up an OpenGL/Vulkan Driv...Igalia
 
Unblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen Frames
Unblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen FramesUnblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen Frames
Unblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen FramesSinan KOZAK
 
Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024The Digital Insurer
 
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdfhans926745
 
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt RobisonData Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt RobisonAnna Loughnan Colquhoun
 
🐬 The future of MySQL is Postgres 🐘
🐬  The future of MySQL is Postgres   🐘🐬  The future of MySQL is Postgres   🐘
🐬 The future of MySQL is Postgres 🐘RTylerCroy
 
GenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
GenCyber Cyber Security Day PresentationGenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
GenCyber Cyber Security Day PresentationMichael W. Hawkins
 
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processors
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone ProcessorsExploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processors
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processorsdebabhi2
 
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024Rafal Los
 
TrustArc Webinar - Stay Ahead of US State Data Privacy Law Developments
TrustArc Webinar - Stay Ahead of US State Data Privacy Law DevelopmentsTrustArc Webinar - Stay Ahead of US State Data Privacy Law Developments
TrustArc Webinar - Stay Ahead of US State Data Privacy Law DevelopmentsTrustArc
 
How to convert PDF to text with Nanonets
How to convert PDF to text with NanonetsHow to convert PDF to text with Nanonets
How to convert PDF to text with Nanonetsnaman860154
 
Strategies for Unlocking Knowledge Management in Microsoft 365 in the Copilot...
Strategies for Unlocking Knowledge Management in Microsoft 365 in the Copilot...Strategies for Unlocking Knowledge Management in Microsoft 365 in the Copilot...
Strategies for Unlocking Knowledge Management in Microsoft 365 in the Copilot...Drew Madelung
 
WhatsApp 9892124323 ✓Call Girls In Kalyan ( Mumbai ) secure service
WhatsApp 9892124323 ✓Call Girls In Kalyan ( Mumbai ) secure serviceWhatsApp 9892124323 ✓Call Girls In Kalyan ( Mumbai ) secure service
WhatsApp 9892124323 ✓Call Girls In Kalyan ( Mumbai ) secure servicePooja Nehwal
 
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptxEIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptxEarley Information Science
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking MenDelhi Call girls
 
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...Neo4j
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking MenDelhi Call girls
 
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...Neo4j
 
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024The Digital Insurer
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Civil Lines Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Civil Lines Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Civil Lines Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Civil Lines Women Seeking MenDelhi Call girls
 

Último (20)

Raspberry Pi 5: Challenges and Solutions in Bringing up an OpenGL/Vulkan Driv...
Raspberry Pi 5: Challenges and Solutions in Bringing up an OpenGL/Vulkan Driv...Raspberry Pi 5: Challenges and Solutions in Bringing up an OpenGL/Vulkan Driv...
Raspberry Pi 5: Challenges and Solutions in Bringing up an OpenGL/Vulkan Driv...
 
Unblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen Frames
Unblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen FramesUnblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen Frames
Unblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen Frames
 
Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Axa Assurance Maroc - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
 
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
 
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt RobisonData Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
 
🐬 The future of MySQL is Postgres 🐘
🐬  The future of MySQL is Postgres   🐘🐬  The future of MySQL is Postgres   🐘
🐬 The future of MySQL is Postgres 🐘
 
GenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
GenCyber Cyber Security Day PresentationGenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
GenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
 
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processors
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone ProcessorsExploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processors
Exploring the Future Potential of AI-Enabled Smartphone Processors
 
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024
The 7 Things I Know About Cyber Security After 25 Years | April 2024
 
TrustArc Webinar - Stay Ahead of US State Data Privacy Law Developments
TrustArc Webinar - Stay Ahead of US State Data Privacy Law DevelopmentsTrustArc Webinar - Stay Ahead of US State Data Privacy Law Developments
TrustArc Webinar - Stay Ahead of US State Data Privacy Law Developments
 
How to convert PDF to text with Nanonets
How to convert PDF to text with NanonetsHow to convert PDF to text with Nanonets
How to convert PDF to text with Nanonets
 
Strategies for Unlocking Knowledge Management in Microsoft 365 in the Copilot...
Strategies for Unlocking Knowledge Management in Microsoft 365 in the Copilot...Strategies for Unlocking Knowledge Management in Microsoft 365 in the Copilot...
Strategies for Unlocking Knowledge Management in Microsoft 365 in the Copilot...
 
WhatsApp 9892124323 ✓Call Girls In Kalyan ( Mumbai ) secure service
WhatsApp 9892124323 ✓Call Girls In Kalyan ( Mumbai ) secure serviceWhatsApp 9892124323 ✓Call Girls In Kalyan ( Mumbai ) secure service
WhatsApp 9892124323 ✓Call Girls In Kalyan ( Mumbai ) secure service
 
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptxEIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
 
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking Men
 
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
 
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Partners Life - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Civil Lines Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Civil Lines Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Civil Lines Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Civil Lines Women Seeking Men
 

Destaque

2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
 
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTEverything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTExpeed Software
 
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsProduct Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
 
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
 
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfAI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024Neil Kimberley
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsKurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Tessa Mero
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...RachelPearson36
 

Destaque (20)

2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
 
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTEverything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
 
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsProduct Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
 
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
 
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfAI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
 
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture CodeSkeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
 

Research project on media conglomerates, mobile applications, and social gaming

  • 1. MEDIA INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: Evaluating the past and thoughts on the future Yujin Chung
  • 2. Special thanks for supporting this project! • Professor Hosanagar, faculty sponsor • Chris Farmer, advisor and fmr Bessemer Ventures • Joshua Auerbach, Betaworks • Gil Beyda, Genacast Ventures • Carter Brokaw, Meebo • Eric Von Coelln, Insidefacebook.com • Ronny Conway, Andreesen Horowitz • Art Chang, Tipping Point Partners • Andrew Chung, Lightspeed Ventures • Tsvi Gal, Exigen Capital, fmr Warner Music CTO • Greg Fodor, Adtuitive CTO • Jonathan Knee, Evercore Partners • Moshe Koyfman, Spark Capital • Justin Nesci, SocialMedia.com • Trevor Oelschig, Bessemer Ventures • David Pakman, Venrock • Dustin Rosen, Mailroom Fund • Douglas Shapiro, Time Warner, fmr Banc of America Securities • Paul Vidich, Betaworks Advisor, fmr head of Warner Music Digital Strategy 2 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 3. Agenda • Executive Summary / Thoughts on Investment & Acquisition • Historical Analysis (2000-2009) • Mobile Applications Industry Analysis • Social Media Industry Analysis 3 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 4. Executive Summary • Media conglomerate shareholder performance has largely underperformed due to poor acquisitions and inability to adapt to open distribution model of the internet • Most acquisitions driven by desire to acquire audience but not having expertise to retain or monetize audience • Inability to innovate traditional content products leads to price erosion and declining sales windows • Continued call for consumer payment via subscription (e.g. Hulu, paywalls for WSJ.com, etc.) are unlikely to be successful • Recently announced magazine consortium represents new approach at preventing intermediary (e.g. YouTube) from usurping audience • Unclear if publishers have technical expertise to develop digital product to drive consumer willingness to pay • New models of content aggregation, search optimization, and publishing by Demand Media and AOL may prove profitable, but will likely litter the web with ―crap content‖ • Question remains of creating premium product / service for traditional content – closest proxy has been iTunes digital albums • Mobile apps show great promise despite inherent structural challenges • Ecosystem has recently evolved toward setting foundation for real, possibly sustainable growth: • Monetization: emerging mobile advertising (Admob), micropayments (storefront) • Feature-rich platforms (iTunes / Android / WebOS) on robust device hardware • Data plans whose focus is away from carrier “walled gardens” • Still no transparent scorecard for ―best‖ developers; closed ecosystem for dominant app distributor (iTunes); bandwidth issues; and extremely low barriers to entry • Investment framework can be based around native phone features, cloud computing infrastructure, and in-app purchases • Apple‘s purchase of lala may introduce robust cloud platform development AND improved social functionality for content and applications • Certain categories within social gaming are attractive for investment • Emergent demand for less time-intensive, lower engagement, and gaming-as-a-service models • High DAU/MAU or ―stickyness factor‖ above ~15% appears to represents sustainable audience for monetization • Microtransactions and early advertising efforts (―cost per installation‖) have proven successful for Zynga and other players • Large opportunities remain as games evolve in sophistication and users become more open toward offering greater access to profile data 4 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 5. Thoughts on Investment & Acquisition Early Stage Growth Equity Strategic Acquisition • Along with cloud computing, native • Developer business models still too • Strategic partnership and licensing more features, and in-app purchases, smart fledging to be considered sustainable, advantageous given hit-driven nature of developers will have instinct for anticipating so unlikely to find immediate growth business iPhone feature release equity prospects • Opportunity for franchise game Thesis: • Given time lag of app store approval, • Still, opportunities likely in 8-12 months branding still available (e.g. sports, Cross Platform first to market presents real strategic for growth equity may include: Halo) advantage by weakening competitive • Productivity, business, and • Strategic value-add through • Winning on response reference verticals offer better marketing/promotion ALL platforms, • Smule good example of developer who retention and pricing than other • But risks also follow as strategics understands this dynamic (and recently categories likely to overprice for content from not just A closed Series B funding) • Proven game developers (e.g. legacy contracts and demand platform • Micromap updating also potentially Ngmoco, Geared by Bryan unrecoupable upfront royalties • Mobile, Mobile disruptive to incumbent GPS players Mitchell) with loyal fanbases, • Location awareness also presents new online, AND • Waze is good example of user- proven sales, and expansive themes product development paths, e.g. offline generated map updating may be viable candidates for coupons, dating, dining, etc. • Freemium model executed via in-app expansion capital • Online incumbents with broad • Becoming a purchases showing early promise - • As mobile audiences achieve audiences, data, and other assets part of your Tapulous (Tap Tap Revenge) , Ngmoco saturation, successful mobile may find acquisition for access to life, not just (Eliminator) developers will need capital to mobile channel attractive thrown away • Focus on churn, usage patterns, and expand online to social, real-time, • More likely opportunity through • Tailored retaining early traffic; similar to social etc. speculated release of tablet devices experience gaming, look for replication of • More robust form of monetization based on development process and mastery of provided tablet offers innovative device, but social, viral aspects native features synched via • Developer space currently led by Zynga, • Mobile / online payments may be open • Media incumbents may continue internet Playdom, and Playfish, to growth equity investment as business acquisitions similar to EA / Playfish connection • Audience size, stickiness models mature given need to acquire • Zynga / Playdom unlikely to be (DAU/MAU), and monetization carrier and distribution partners purchased except for extremely high • New business efficiency are key metrics in evaluating • Somewhat validated by Boku’s prices models players acquisitions of Paymo and other • Recent funding rounds and • e.g. purchase • Concern now around ―spamming the small mobile payment players acquisitions have also set high options mixed feed‖ • Looming giant Paypal presents price per unique (~$5/MAU) Social w/ localized • Virtual goods / in-game transactions market risk but also exit thesis • Social and display ad networks Gaming advertising continue to grow given evolving game • Bootstrapped developers interested in experiencing consolidation as well optimized sophistication liquidity and expansion e.g. Playdom • Teracent / Google against social • Live Gamer and Playspan are well- • Proven successes on social platform • AdLink / Hi-Media data capitalized players with experienced but future growth from cross • SocialMedia.com / AdKnowledge management platform (e.g. mobile, independent • International perspective, e.g. Live URL) and cross-promotion of Gamer’s purchase of N-Cash, Korean genre titles payment solution provider 5 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 6. Agenda • Executive Summary / Investment Frameworks • Historical Analysis (2000-2009) • Mobile Applications Industry Analysis • Social Media Industry Analysis 6 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 7. The modern media conglomerate is typified by scale and centralized ownership via the ―Mogul‖ Controlling Mogul / Revenue by Conglomerate CEO Weighted Average Revenue CAGR Across Conglomerate (2000-2008): 9.7% Sumner Redstone / Les Moonves Rupert Murdoch / Rupert Murdoch / Jeffrey Bewkes Sumner Redstone / Philippe Dauman Roberts Family / Brian Roberts / Jean-Bernard Lévy / Robert Iger Billions Source: Curse of the Mogul, Jonathan Knee; Boldface represents broadly held public companies; Vivendi values converted to dollars using historical exchange rate; 2000 value for 7 Viacom actually 2002; 2000 value for CBS actually 2003; substitutions made due to data availability This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 8. Their ownership expansion has been impressive, with properties ranging from content to distribution Distribution Content Online Satellite Radio Cable TV Broad- Cable TV News- Content / Mag. Video Business Book Movie / Broad- Broad- e-Comm. Music Sports System casting Channel Network papers Social Publish. Games Info Publish. TV Studio casting casting Network Source: Curse of the Mogul, Jonathan Knee 8 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 9. But their stock performance has been disappointing Stock Price Performance Past Nine Years Stock Price Performance Past Three Years (1/1/2000 – 8/31/2009) (5/16/2006 – 8/31/2009) Conglomerate Avg: (47.5) Conglomerate Avg: (31.8) Note: Conglomerate average calculated as straight average of stock price performance 9 Source: Yahoo Finance; prices adjusted for dividends and stock splits; This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 10. Both the ―Mogul Effect‖ and the Internet contribute to this underperformance ―Mogul Effect‖ (Internal) Internet (External) Content Packaging Retail • Creative data production • Aggregation • Delivery to final customer • Marketing / Promotion • Wholesale distribution • Inability to consistently choose ―hits,‖ • Lowered barriers to entry given • Pricing power is weakened in a leaving revenue generation to be continued launches of improving online digital world largely unscalable ventures • Fast growth incentivizes new entrants • Release windows are shortened to attack incumbents online as well Mergers / Acquisitions • Overpaying for acquisitions • Overestimation of synergies • Acquisition for growth, not strategic rationale 10 Source: Framework provided by Curse of the Mogul, Jonathan Knee This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 11. Market share volatility implies conglomerates are more lucky than skilled in picking ―winners‖ Content Packaging Distribution Poor M&A across the value chain Absolute Market Share of Share Absolute Market Share of Share Top Music Labels Change Top Movie Studios Change 2.7 0.9 4.7 8.0 4.6 0.8 6.8 9.7 2.5 4.8 5.6 5.8 Average: 5.2 Average: 4.5 11 Source: www.the-numbers.com; absolute market share defined as normalized market share of top studio / music labels; absolute share change < 4 implies share instability This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 12. Most conglomerate shareholders would have been better off without big mergers / acquisitions… Content Packaging Distribution Share Price ($ / Share) Mergers / Acquisitions Source: ―Hey Big Media: The Jig is Up on Big Media Mergers,‖ Bank of America Securities, Douglas Shapiro, July 7, 2004 Assumptions behind analysis: 1) legacy businesses growing only at average secular growth rates over the period; 2) assumed that all free cash flow that would have been thrown off by these theoretical companies would have been used only to pay down debt or accrued as cash 3) increased the share base of each by 4% per year to account for options issuance, a much more rapid rate of options dilution than actually occurred (under the rationale that these ―hypothetical‖ companies would have experienced better stock performance over the period); and 4) to arrive at the current price of the hypothetical company, only the current multiple 12 of each company is applied, even though a better capital allocation track record over the last few years would have arguably resulted in a higher multiple. This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 13. …though they did help ―grow the empire,‖ these deals generally hurt the share price… Content Packaging Distribution Mergers / Acquisitions Acquisitions Why they worked for the mogul Revenue impact +475% +159% +138% +239% from deals EBITDA impact +320% +162% +153% +233% from deals Why they didn’t • Cable network cashflow • While ABC / Fox Family • AOL-Time Warner • Decline of cable public work for share would have been used performance suffered, synergies greatly market values (versus cash holders more effectively to pay ESPN performed much overestimated paid for asset) down debt or simply better than expected accrued as cash • Additional capital deployed (not included in purchase price) to pay for upgrade Share price impact (121%) +4% (150%) (27%) from deals Source: ―Hey Big Media: The Jig is Up on Big Media Mergers,‖ Bank of America Securities, Douglas Shapiro, July 7, 2004 13 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 14. …and yet these same firms continued to engage in questionable acquisitions Content Packaging Distribution Mergers / Acquisitions Deals Bebo IGN CNET • Overpaid for asset ($850M) relative to • Overpaid for asset ($650M) • Overpaid for asset in sole bidder revenue ($20M) and EBITDA ($5M) at • CEO (then COO of Fox Interactive situation ($1.8B) time of acquisition Media) left soon after acquisition • Executives admit having ―overpaid‖ • Now being actively sold off for asset Outcome MySpace Last.fm • Google search deals, while initially • Overpaid for asset ($280M) lucrative, will not be renewed • Apparent competition with existing • ―Lost‖ social network war to Facebook CBS online radio asset • Repositioning site as music portal • Inability to monetize effectively Growth equity thesis of “buying, then selling to eyeballs” largely unproven Note: Curse of the Mogul; Newsblogs 14 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 15. The Internet has allowed the proliferation of open distribution and socialization of content… Content Packaging Distribution Poor M&A across the value chain Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0? Streaming ??? Downloads ??? File-sharing ??? Social Networks ??? Ease of content sharing leading to loss of willingness to pay Lower barriers of entry over time 15 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 16. …leading to weakening pricing power… Content Packaging Distribution Poor M&A across the value chain Average Music Retail Pricing Average Advertising Revenue per Hour Average Retail Book Pricing Average Price per DVD Title 16 Source: RIAA; BlackArrow; Fordham University, Marketing Department; MPAA 2007 Industry Report This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 17. …and shorter content release windows. Content Packaging Distribution Poor M&A across the value chain Median period of Album Release “Heat Period”* Movie Studio Release Windows Source: National Association of Theater Owners (NATO); Soundscan 17 * ―Heat Period‖ defined as length of time album sales stay above 20% of initial peak volume This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 18. Thoughts on adapting in today‘s environment Content Packaging Retail • Creative data production • Aggregation • Delivery to final customer • Marketing / Promotion • Wholesale distribution • Focus on areas with potential product • Leverage viewer base, e.g. hybrid • Deeply integrate with Social extensions less sensitive to erosion professional, for low cost content Network Platforms • Products with merchandise • Search optimize, and eventually • Facebook Connect, Twitter extensions ―social optimize,‖ content for API, Friend Connect discovery • Increase product placement • Additional API‘s as and other embedded ads launched: foursquare, gowalla, etc. • Control content creation and • Develop consumer-focused data acquisition costs strategy • Recognize devaluation of content and • Build relationship on accept depressed pricing access, not ownership Mergers / Acquisitions • Streamline business (not corporate) development process • Accelerate dealflow and deal signing • Goals are new partners AND new learning • Accelerate rights expansion and terms with content makers • Engage in experimental deals with innovative but unproven players Source: Framework provided by Curse of the Mogul, Jonathan Knee 18 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 19. Demand Media: Next Gen Media Conglomerate? Generates revenue by focusing on search and volume Content Valuation Algorithm • Determines what articles to produce • Estimates search term‘s Lifetime Value User Knowledge Engine Packaging + • Generates title ideas by combing through search queries that have included that term • Reviews term and converts to real title Upload Freelance writer spots title and writes article • Copyeditor reads article, makes fixes, and uploads back to Demand Studios Publishing / Discover y / Analytics Distribution Search-based Publishing • Tied to Google adwords and SEM / • Article appears on Demand Media's SEO rankings network of sites and partners • Verticalized distribution based on audience interest Monetization • Ad clicks result in revenue generation for Demand Media and Google Source: Wired 19 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 20. Betaworks: focuses on funding and operating on real-time startups Verticalized Distribution Verticalized Discovery / Packaging Distribution Analytics Content From USER Search / Discovery Content From USER Verticalized Retail Source: Betaworks site 20 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 21. The next generation of the web is becoming more Social, Mobile, & Real-Time Internet Era Traditional Portal Search Social Mobile (TV / Radio / (Yahoo / AOL) (Google) (Facebook / Twitter) (iPhone/ Android) Newspaper) Content • Passive • Passive • Active • Interactive, user • Wide range of Control • Professional • Specialized • User generated generated developers Discovery • Mass • Prominent page • Search-driven • Recommendation • iTunes / Android app marketing placement • Reference store • Word of mouth • Other apps (e.g. Chorus) Monetization • Classified ads • Banners ads • Text ads • Social ads • Purchase • Mass-market • Light targeting • Targeted based on • Targeted via social • Subscription? • Generic • Light context search relevance • Mobile advertising • Contextual to • Contextual on previous behavior relationship • Virtual goods • Microtransactions Data lag • Days • Hours • Minutes • Real-time • Real-time Analytics • Broad samples • Pageviews • Uniques • Uniques • Geo-targeted / • Focus groups • Uniques • Duration • Retweet location-based • Cost per • Cost per Action • Relevance Thousand 21 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 22. Agenda • Executive Summary / Thoughts on Investment & Acquisition • Historical Analysis (2000-2009) • Mobile Applications Industry Analysis • Social Media Industry Analysis 22 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 23. Apple‘s release of the iPhone and iTouch have been met with groundbreaking growth 23 Source: Mary Meeker, ―Economy and Internet Trends‖ Oct 20, 2009 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 24. AT&T DataTraffic has surged, implying underlying demand for bandwidth consumptive applications 24 Source: Mary Meeker, ―Economy and Internet Trends‖ Oct 20, 2009 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 25. iTunes simplifies the act of mobile purchase… 25 Source: Mary Meeker, ―Economy and Internet Trends‖ Oct 20, 2009 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 26. …leading to the growth of a paid mobile ecosystem 26 Source: Mary Meeker, ―Economy and Internet Trends‖ Oct 20, 2009 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 27. Morgan Stanley estimates mobile app market to be $5.3B by 2012 27 Source: Admob; Yankee Group This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 28. iTunes App Store has become a fast growing ecosystem, with over 83,000 applications 100,000+ 83,438 75,069 65,173 55,047 44,869 37,366 29,743 22,820 17,422 Source: 148apps.com 28 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 29. Pricing spans a variety of points, though nearly half of all App Store applications priced at $0.99 iTunes App Store Pricing Source: 148apps.com; as of Sept ‗09 29 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 30. Categories vary by loyalty and frequency of use Frequency vs. Retention News Sports Medical Business Social Utilities Books Networking Weather Frequency of Use Health Care / Finance Fitness Travel Per week Entertainment Games Music Reference Productivity Education Lifestyle Navigation 30 Day Retention Source: 148apps.com; as of Sept ‘09; size of bubble denotes # of apps offered 30 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 31. Pricing and Retention appear to be correlated Retention vs. Pricing Books Weather Navigation • Subscription model News possible? Games Sports Productivity Education Finance Business • Focus on verticals 30 Day Retention Reference Health Care / Fitness Music Social Travel Networking Utilities • Developers should focus on Entertainment creating sustainable process around frequent app release Lifestyle • Cross-sell apps aggressively Avg Price 31 Source: 148apps.com; Flurry.com; as of Sept ‘09; Medical category excluded (avg price: $7.90, retention: 43%) This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 32. Gaming apps are fragmented and hit driven, with high turnover among the top ten lists iPhone Paid App Rankings (Apps in April - June) iPhone Paid App Rankings (lasting three months or later) iPhone Paid App Rankings (Apps lasting three months or longer) Fragmentation Apps do not sustain ranked placement for more than three months 32 Source: Distimo This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 33. iFund developer recipients focus on interactivity and gaming Name Category Description Unique Features Booyah Location-based Booyahs are topnotch industry vets from a wide range of entertainment, media, • User engagement through "real-life" games Social Network and technology fields who have combined their talents to create something and "boo-yah" moments, which are then larger than themselves. At Booyah, we believe that we can inspire personal recorded and tracked as data discovery and change lives. We spend our days thinking of ways to catalyze mass action, and we spend our nights turning those dreams into reality. Texting Your friends, family, and even the family cat (if they can do so)...can text the • Enabling txt as notification technology for keyword of your TXTsite to the GOGII phone number, 60611, and they access, content, and referral immediately receive the TXTsite, which consists of the information that you placed on it, with menu choices. From here, they can choose to receive text (Gogii) updates, link to a website, download a video, or forward the site to a friend. It's like navigating a website, but all in text. Remote control Stay connected in real-time to what matters most—family, property, home, • Remote access, broadband home and business—from anywhere in the world, anytime, day or night. management Location-based On the intersection of mobile and the physical world. Its goal is to drastically • Unclear, though founders have strong improve the experience of consumers on that intersection. gaming and software development experience Gaming The iPhone can give you all the gaming goodness from arcade to adventure, • Robust, high end gaming from puzzle to platformer & from shooter to sudoku - but it can also give you • Traditionally high price points but recently games that you've never seen before - Alternate & augmented reality games, released in-app purchases for virtual goods mobile social experiences, games that use multi-touch, accelerometers, gps, and microtransactions the camera, your media and your friends to bring you amazing new • Rapid release model experiences. Location-based Pelago is committed to developing innovative products that bring the power of • User engagement through everyday Social Network online information to everyday life in the physical world. Their flagship product, celebration Whrrl v2.0, lets people capture and share the stories of their lives, one moment at a time. Music ID The launch pad to our success has been our core music recognition • Premium and free models (freemium) service technology that enables anyone with a mobile phone to identify music that is • No content licensing playing - even under noisy conditions - wherever they are, simply by Shazaming it. This clip is run through our database of over 8 million tracks (which extends back to the '50s) to find an exact fingerprint match. 33 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 34. Cloud data / processing + native iphone features + in- app purchases = Preliminary Investment Thesis Cloud Computing Native Features In-app purchases Photo Video Compass + Music Location awareness + Voice recognition Touchscreen (Heavy Data / Processing Requirements) Txt/MMS (Pseudo subscription / service model) Accelerometer Voice Mobile App Investment Framework 34 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 35. Structure brainstorming identifies virtual tag, real-time translation, and micro-windowed mobile coupons as having potential Native Features Cloud Features Location / Vertical Multimedia Touchscreen Voice Cloud Processing / Data Possible Concepts Compass Games x x Virtual tag / virtual easter egg hunt Travel x x x Local, interactive maps for malls, parks, etc. Education x Digital flipcards Utilities x x Visual authentication Utilities x x Visual transcription Utilities x x Remote control webcam and monitoring Music x x Song identification (Shazam) Sports x Real-time, location-based rooting Productivity x x X Real-time language translator Productivity x x x Voice / language transcription Business x x Real-time, micro-windowed mobile coupons Healthcare & Fitness x x Augmented reality workouts News x x Real-time, hyperlocal news Location-based social networking Social Networking x x x (Foursquare) Finance x x Digital payment and authentication Emergency alert; health insurance and e- Medical x x record access 35 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 36. Agenda • Executive Summary / Thoughts on Investment & Acquisition • Historical Analysis (2000-2009) • Mobile Applications Industry Analysis • Social Media Industry Analysis 36 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 37. Social networking is a global phenomenon… 37 Source: Mary Meeker, ―Mobile Internet Themes,‖ Dec 2009 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 38. …with social gaming becoming an emerging sub-industry for Facebook app developers 38 Source: Mary Meeker, ―Mobile Internet Themes,‖ Dec 2009 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 39. In only two years, the social gaming Market is estimated to grow to $2.2B; the virtual goods market is estimated to grow to $2.0B… 2012: $2.2B 2012: $2.0B 2013: $2.4B 39 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 40. …with room to grow as users shift their time and advertisers shift their spend to internet applications Lag driven by: • Challenges in managing spend and performance in a variety of mediums (vs. lump sum payment to a mass aggregator like a TV station) • Low costs of social media distribution and tracking • Still relatively new (even considered experimental), spend not yet formalized as line item in CMO budgets 40 Source: Mary Meeker, ―Mobile Internet Themes,‖ Dec 2009; Knowledge@Wharton This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 41. The Social Gaming Ecosystem is robust with roughly 300 firms and $1.5B invested across multiple categories Social Gaming Firms Venture Capital Dollars ($MM) N=308 Total: $1.5B* invested Source: Social Gaming Summit 2009, Crunchbase, Company Websites, Press Releases, LinkedIn profiles of founders 41 *Over past three years This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 42. While many categories have been funded, entrepreneurs continue to start firms Total Number of Firms 61 20 15 10 5 8 4 4 5 3 6 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 Total Firms Funded Firms Unfunded Firms Source: Social Gaming Summit 2009, Crunchbase, Company Websites, Press Releases, LinkedIn profiles of founders 42 This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.
  • 43. More funding does not necessarily translate into bigger user bases (1 of 2) Firm Funding Investors Description CEO MAU DAU DAU / MAU Playdom $43M NEA, Lightspeed, Norwest Playdom is game developer with a focus on social, online games. The John 14,416,661 2,119,342 14.7% company has a number of popular titles on the iPhone, Myspace, and Pleasants Facebook. Zynga $39.0 Reid Hoffman, Avalon Zynga is a network of gaming applications built off of classic games like Mark 185,624,645 53,399,185 28.8% Ventures, Clarium Capital, Poker, Battleship, and Attack!. The games are found on social networks like Pincus Foundry Group, Pilot Group, Facebook and Bebo. Union Square Ventures, Peter In addition to making their own games, the company has created a network Thiel, Bob Pittman, Andy which allows third party developers to become part of the Zynga network. Russell, Brad Feld, Kleiner Perkins, playfirst $26.5 Mayfield, Trinity Ventures, PlayFirst is a casual gaming startup, based out of San Francisco. is focused John Welch 3,185 174 5.5% Rustic Canyon Partners, DCM on creating ―shared casual game experiences around lasting original brands‖ that includes game play ―rich in story and character.‖ PlayFirst titles include Wedding Dash, Chocolatier, and Dream Chronicles. Playfish $21.0 Accel Partners, Index Playfish is a creator of social games for friends to play together over social Kristian 60,212,645 13,381,393 22.2% Ventures platforms such as Facebook, MySpace, Bebo, Google, iPhone and Android. Segerstrale Each of the company‘s seven games has been a top 10 hit on Facebook, including Pet Society, which is the platform‘s most popular game and enjoyed by more than 11 million people every month. Challenge $14.5 Sequoia, Globespan Challenge Games creates online social games that are fun and easy to play Andrew 1,983 159 8.0% Games whether you‘re a serious or casual gamer. Tapping the capabilities of social Busey networks, Challenge Games helps people play with and against friends. Citizen $10.0 Radar Partners Citizen Sports offers a number of web applications that allow for interaction Mike Kerns 1,159,016 98,937 8.5% Sports between fans. They also are the creators of Protrade.com, where users can buy, sell, and trade their favorite sports figures as they try to win money. SuperSecret $10.0 Freestyle Capital, Opus SuperSecret.com is an online social game for tweens who are ready to move Ted Barnett NA NA Capital on from Club Penguin or Webkinz, but are too young for World of Warcraft or Facebook. The company actively involves tweens in product design to create an engaging experience available online, and its proprietary World Builder™ platform allows SuperSecret to quickly and easily expand game content to keep up with the imagination and skills of its tween audience. RotoHog.com $8.0 Allen & Co., DFJ Dragonfund, RotoHog.com is the provider and developer of fantasy sports with current Kelly 443 8 1.8% Mission Ventures, SCP partners like NBA.com, Turner Digital, Pro Football Weekly, LG Electronics Perdew Worldwide, Jeff Fluhr and Grupo RBS in Brazil. RotoHog is a product of Sports Composite DE, is privately held, and based in Los Angeles, CA. 43 Source: Social Gaming Summit 2009, Crunchbase, Company Websites, Press Releases, LinkedIn profiles of founders; MAU: Monthly Avg Users; DAU: Daily Avg Users This information is confidential and was prepared by Yujin Chung for an independent study project sponsored by Professor Hosanagar. It is not to be referenced, published, or presented without Mr. Chung‘s prior written consent.