I am available to present on Zoom (Elton@EltonSherwin.com) America has had 50 times more deaths, per capita, than the Pacific-rim democracies. What did they do? What can we learn from these Asian democracies that have defeated COVID-19? I read 100s of reports from South Korea, Taiwan and Japan and concluded… The Pacific rim democracies that have contained major outbreaks of COVID-19 have taken 12 actions that together have proven amazingly effective.

1. What Could the Biden Administration
Do to Defeat COVID-19
Elton B. Sherwin
Environmentalist and Author
Elton@EltonSherwin.com
tiny.cc/COVIDActions
Lessons from Asia and Europe
December 2020Rev. 40
versus

2. America Has Had 50 Times More Deaths
Per Capita than the Pacific Democracies
2
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=AUS~JPN~NZL~KOR~TWN~USA&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
Pacific Rim Democracies

3. As an American - I am Speechless
For Each Person Who Has Died In a Pacific Democracy
Fifty People Have Died in America
3
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=AUS~JPN~NZL~KOR~TWN~USA&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
Pacific Rim Democracies

4. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=AUS~CHN~JPN~NZL~KOR~TWN~USA~SWE~FRA~GBR~ITA~ESP&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hide
Controls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc State data:
www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ State data is per 100,000. Country data is per million.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
France
Sweden
California
Australia
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
Taiwan
Democracies’ Effectiveness
Responding to the
COVID-19 Pandemic
Deaths per Million as of December 8
Cumulative United States Fatalities per million

5. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=AUS~CHN~JPN~NZL~KOR~TWN~USA~SWE~FRA~GBR~ITA~ESP&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hide
Controls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc State data:
www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ State data is per 100,000. Country data is per million.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
France
Sweden
California
Australia
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
Taiwan
Cumulative United States Fatalities per million
What Can We Learn from These
Governments?

6. In the beginning
the West
underestimated the
importance of
masks
6
www.medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-masks-wearer-coronavirus-sick.html
The scientific literature 40+ articles:
http://tiny.cc/maskswork

7. If You Wear a Mask, You Are…
…Less likely to catch COVID-19
And If You Do become infected…
…Less likely to have symptoms
…Less likely to be hospitalized
…Less likely to die
…Less likely to pass to a family member
Masks are miraculous 7
www.medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-masks-wearer-coronavirus-sick.html www.medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-mask-kind-vaccine-covid-.amp

8. Countries Chose: Masks or Lockdowns
Asia Chose Masks, Rapid
Clear Communication and
Action
 Had 1/50 as many deaths
 Very little unemployment
 Strong economies
The West Chose Inaction,
Muddled Communication
and Lockdowns
 50x as many deaths
 Millions unemployed
 Vast economic disruption
8

9. Masks
Are
Powerful
But we will
need more
than
masks
9

10. The Winning Formula
I read 100s of reports from South Korea,
Taiwan, Japan and Australia and concluded…
The Pacific rim democracies that have
contained major outbreaks of COVID-19 have
taken a suite of actions that together have
proven amazingly effective.
10

11. 11
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=JPN~USA~CAN~Europe&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
Total COVID-19 Deaths per million inhabitants cumulative
Pacific Rim Democracies
Canada
USA
Europe
Every Large Democracy
that Is NOT Using Asia’s
Strategy Is Now
Experiencing a Surge

12. What Should the New
Administration Do?
12
Given our current situation…

13. More Details in Two Documents
Both Are Downloadable
13
http://tiny.cc/ProgressiveList
http://tiny.cc/COVIDLessons

14. The Basics
14

15. Simulation Shown on Japanese Television
15
He coughed 15
minutes ago*
* https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

16. Preventing
Super Spreader Events
16

17. 17
Most Super-
Spreading Events
 10+ people
 Indoors
 No masks
 30+ minutes
17
Image: James Lloyd-Smith, UC Berkeley (modified)
Wedding
Bar
Jail
Retirement Home
Church
Families
* www.vox.com/21296067/coronavirus-covid-
symptoms-superspreaders-superspreading-
contagious-bars-restaurants

18. Copy South Korea
18
The Critical Role of Information Technology

19. South Korea Has Produced a Detailed
“How to Guide” for other Governments
19
I Cannot Find a Single Piece of Advice the U.S.
Federal Government Has Followed
www.moef.go.kr/com/cmm/fms/FileDown.do?atchFileId=ATCH_000000000013739&fileSn=2
United States
South Korea
80 fold
difference

20. Media
20

21. Kremlin Disinformation About COVID-19,
Amplified by Fox, Is a Major Problem
21
* https://euvsdisinfo.eu/ Infographic: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-can-kill/

22. Foreclosures and Evictions
22

23. Essential Workers
23

24. One Example
Gives Us Hope
24

25. 600
400
200
New Infections per day**
Victoria, Australia (Melbourne)
Second Wave Hit Hard
“Go for zero” program
 Border restrictions
 Mask mandates
 QR codes to enter all businesses
 Every case traced and monitored
25
** www.vox.com/2020/12/4/22151242/melbourne-victoria-australia-covid-19-cases-lockdown
Results:
39 consecutive days
with no new cases*
* www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update

26. A Tale of Two States
Similar in size and population
Both hit hard by COVID-19
Victoria, Australia
 39 consecutive days with no new cases*
 Hospitals are coronavirus-free
Missouri, United States of America
 Last 14 days: 755 deaths and 53,936 new cases**
26* www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update as of December 8
** https://news.google.com/covid19/map

27. World Used Two Strategies
Close the Borders and
Get To Zero
 American Soma
 New Zealand
 Australia
 Taiwan
 South Korea
 China
 Vietnam
 Cuba
Balance Interests and
Keep Business Open
 US Federal government
 49 of US states
 Britain
 Sweden
 Russia
 Brazil
 The Netherlands
 Belgium 27

28. Even States “Guided by Science”
Got clobbered
28
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=AUS~JPN~NZL~KOR~TWN~USA~SWE~NLD~GBR~CHN~VNM~CUB~BRA&region=World&deathsM
etric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
Total COVID-19 Deaths per million inhabitants cumulative
Get To Zero
Keep Business
Open
There appears to be little
middle ground
If a door is open this virus
will sneak in explode 3-5
weeks later

29. The Contradiction that
Few Foresaw
Get To Zero Camp
 Put a wall around your
state
 Track down every case
 Isolate those infected
 Monitor those exposed
 Treat every case as a
crisis
 No rest before success
Keep Business Open Camp
 Tap down the virus
 Keep it from getting out of
hand
 Slow it down
 Some deaths are
inevitable
 Compliance is a matter of
personal choice
29

30. The Contradiction that
Few Foresaw
Get To Zero Camp
 Kept most businesses
open
 Little unemployment
 Minimal economic
disruption
 Fewer restrictions on
personal freedoms
Keep Business Open Camp
 More business failures
 Huge economic impact
 More restrictions on
personal freedoms
 Far larger government
expenditures
 50x as many deaths
30
The “bipolar” nature of this pandemic surprised me

31. Outlook at Inauguration
Deaths from COVID-19
 High: 4,000/day; 120,000/month
 And continuing upwards
 Midrange: 3,000/day; 90,000/month
 And curve is flattening
 Optimistic: 2,200/day; 66,000/month
 And declining
31
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend

32. President Biden Inherits a
Grim Situation
We are going to lose more than 50,000
Americans each month in…
…December
…January
…February
…March
…? 32

33. And…
…Most will be
Elderly
Poor
People of color
33

34. A Vaccine
Will Likely Save Us This Time
But what if next time, in 202X, a vaccine is as
difficult to develop as it has been for:
 HIV
 Syphilis
 Malaria or Dengue
And it takes years to develop a vaccine.
And the West responds 50x worse than Asia?
Will Western democracies even survive? 34

35. Questions?
35http://tiny.cc/ProgressiveList
http://tiny.cc/COVIDLessons
I am available to present or discuss:
Elton@EltonSherwin.com
This presentation can be downloaded
from: http://tiny.cc/COVIDActions

36. Appendix
36

37. The Winning Formula
From Asian Democracies
The Pacific rim democracies that have contained
major outbreaks of COVID-19 have taken 12
actions that together have proved amazingly
effective.
1. Masks in all work and public environments
2. Cellular location data and apps for contact
tracing, symptom monitoring and forecasting
3. Clear communication, free of foreign
disinformation 37

38. 4. Border restrictions: restricting and monitoring all
individuals entering from affected areas
5. Temperature checks and thermal imaging at home
and entrances to stores, offices and schools
6. Traditional contact tracing (manual)
7. Individual quarantines (separate from families)
8. Targeted testing with multiple follow-ups for all
who test positive
38

39. The Four America Originally Focused on
9. Stay-at-home orders and home quarantines
with family members
10. Curfews and restrictions on large gatherings
11. “Social distancing” and no handshaking
12. Hygiene and Hand washing
39

40. The Indispensable Role
of Tracking Cell Phones
40
This map shows where cell
phones traveled from the inside
of one Tyson meat processing
plant in Indiana during the month
of March.
Over 900 workers were infected
at this plant.
It is not known how many
people they then infected
outside the plant as employees,
contractors and truckers
crisscrossed the state and then
the entire nation. Tectonix GEO

41. South Korea’s Automated Contact Tracing System Was
35 to 50 Times Faster than Traditional Manual Methods
41
Like Taiwan, South Korea’s
sophisticated use of information
technology enabled it to quickly
find those who had been
exposed, thus preventing further
transmission.
America has 1,000s of food
processing plants and distribution
centers (Amazon, Walmart, UPS,
Safeway, USPS, KRAFT, etc.)
Most are conveniently located
next to an Interstate highway.Tectonix GEO

42. What Needs to Be Done?
Make cellular network data available to
public health officials
 Americans get 10 days to opt out
 People who don’t want their phones tracked
 And who don’t want to be notified if they have
been exposed, or exposed someone else
42
Tectonix GEO

43. And: Develop an App
For symptom monitoring and
contact location tracking
43Oracle app, Zdnet
Modified to include temperature
What is your temperature? 100.1

44. Lifesaving Apps Have…
1. Location data for all contacts and logging all
Bluetooth pings and beacons
2. Background operation: App does not need to
be open to function
3. Basic health profile: age, are they members of
vulnerable population?
4. A few simple health and behavior questions:
 Are you coughing ? Do you have a sore throat?
Difficulty breathing? etc.
 Were you wearing mask?
5. Daily temperature of the user recorded 44

45. Lifesaving Apps Have…
6. The defaults for all of the above should be ON
at installation.
7. Option to share the data with public health
officials (opt out vs. opt in).
8. A simple way for parents, schools, hospitals,
airlines and employers to check the app is
installed correctly and running.
9. Color coding to tell you, a parent, a school, a
restaurant or bus driver if you are likely to be
infected: green, lime green, yellow, red.
10.Interoperability with other states (for travelers and
truckers).
45

46. “But I don’t want the government
to know where I am…”
 Don’t install the app.
 And opt out.
 However, you might
first check who you are
already trusting with
your location.
 My phone gives my
location to 50 apps,
and 3 all the time… 46

47. What Else Can We Learn from Asia?
Every Country in Asia which has controlled COVID-19:
 Extensive use of temperature checks
 Mandatory monitoring of EVERYONE who
exits a hot spot or crosses a border
 Automated, national contact tracking system
 Uses location data from the cellular network
 Following up with everyone who tests positive
47

48. References
48

49. The Nordic Counties vs. U.S. and S. Korea
49
We should study Finland
Norway and South Korea
Not Sweden
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-
explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=KOR~USA~NOR~FIN~SWE&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location

50. 50
References
How Taiwan crushed COVID-19:
www.pbs.org/newshour/show/taiwans-aggressive-efforts-are-paying-off-in-fight-against-covid-19
How Asia contained COVID-19:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronavirus-lessons-learned-in-asia-show-us-is-at-risk-of-a-resurge-in-cases-as-states-
reopen-businesses.html
Nearly 900 workers at a Tyson plant test positive:
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/495564-nearly-900-workers-at-tyson-meat-plant-in-indiana-test-positive-for-coronavirus
Tyson employees, contractors and truckers travel, spreading out across the country:
Video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1258109399073161216
Image: https://www.dailydot.com/debug/cellphone-heat-map-meat-industry/
Scientific papers on the importance of masks:
http://tiny.cc/MaskScience and http://tiny.cc/maskswork and next note
The Magic of 80% masking:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf and http://tiny.cc/KillTheVirus Also see note 4
The CDC: Most persons, 83%–99%, will experience a fever:
www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html