Introduction to my background and to TIBCO (2 mins)
Before going into HR application, overview of survival analysis – statistics and health research – loaded roster of events.
Why survival? Attrition is reflective and while able to build hotbeds and heatmaps, it is hard to predict the upcoming WHERE and WHEN. Depends on mix of tenure and unique demographic interplay of each group.
Shows the risk at each tenure interval – different for engineers versus retail for example
Here is a real example. This shows the attrition curve variance for Gen Y and Gen X. Myth around Millennial departure rates. Don’t really materialize until 2 years in. How did we use this?
Another case using compa-ratio and how much paid relative to market. High and low touted similar issues and gave us a new strategy for developing talent and pay
We use this to do monte-carlo simulations and get a better probability distribution of our expectations. Here is an oversimple example using a company of 6 people.
Using their tenure & survival curve for the next year, I can forecast a most likely expectation of 2 departures. I can use this to budget and forecast
I can also intervene and change the survival outcomes. If I increase my compensation budget for the year and can boost everybody, I can change the distribution. If I offer a promotion to 2 of the 3 stagnant population, I can reduce the upcoming risk and mitigate the window.
Now I’ll turn to a demo of the tool that we use. This shows how useful it can be to jump from demographic group to demographic group and the forecasted risk window. I can leverage any of demographic groups
You can build your own dataset with a historical record of your tenure and attrition history where retention is an event of 1 and turnover is an event of 0. You can bring in any mix of variables to support your analysis.
The model itself seems intimidating but it isn’t. The codification is also pretty simple and can be done in Excel. It can also be done with greater functionality in tools such as R, Stata, SPSS, Matlab or what you saw demonstrated in TIBCO Spotfire. If you constantly feed new data in from a growing and integrated dataset, the probability estimates are also always evolving (the benefit of going beyond an Excel solution).
Here is a real example. This shows the attrition curve variance for Gen Y and Gen X. Myth around Millennial departure rates. Don’t really materialize until 2 years in. How did we use this?
A critical element is often the external forces of the labor market. Being able to see how economic confidence shapes attrition likelihood does not mean you can mitigate it all but it can help with better forecasting and budgeting AND it can help identify what factors may push against growth economy forces toward turnover
This experience is shaped most importantly by when somebody joins your organization and their experience and relative perspective