For the fourth year running, Edgar, Dunn & Company has conducted a survey of payments professionals globally on key industry dynamics in their markets. The response to this year’s survey involved 685 professionals representing 50 countries.
The survey questions were focussed on five main topics:
Current and future importance of individual payment products
Expected future importance of payment technologies
Most influential market participants
Key industry events that will shape payments markets
The findings illustrate where common themes are developing globally in relation to future trends and, perhaps more interestingly, highlight the key differences in expectations between regions and countries.
3. Global Trends in Payment Systems
Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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For the 4th year running, The questions asked revolved
around five main topics:
Edgar, Dunn & Company
has conducted a survey of Current & future importance of individual
payment products
payments professionals
globally on key industry Current & future importance of individual
payment channels
dynamics in their markets
Expected future importance of payment
technologies
Most influential market participants
Key industry events that will shape
payments markets
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings 4
participated in the survey and
represented a total of 50 countries
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings 5
Respondents to the survey covered a wide cross section of roles within
the industry, and generally had extensive cards / payments experience
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings 6
USA / Overview of
Findings
Canada Card based payments and electronic bill payments are
considered the most important payment methods, with
credit/charge and prepaid cards significantly higher than
other regions.
Cash is lower in importance as a method of payment than
in any other region, but has increased its score versus
2010.
There are high expectations for growth over the next 5
years in both mobile payments and mobile as a channel;
this is supported by the expected growth in the
importance of both mobile and, to a lesser extent,
contactless technologies.
Growth in the importance of Security/authentication and
Fraud technologies is the highest for any region, possibly
due to the fraud losses being incurred by the industry.
The USA / Canada continued to rate the consumer as the
most influential market participant.
In 2011, growth in mobile/NFC continues to be the event
expected to have the greatest impact in shaping the
payments market over the next 3 years.
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings 7
Europe Overview of
Findings
Direct debit/giro/ACH is considered the most important
payment product, well ahead of its score in other
regions, and has grown significantly in importance
compared to 2010.
The importance of Mobile and Contactless products is
the lowest of any region, and has reduced compared to
2010; nonetheless, there are high expectations for
growth in both of these products over the next 5 years.
Mobile technologies are seen as growing most in
importance in the next 5 years, well ahead of contactless
and internet technologies.
In support of this, Telcos/MNOs are expected to be the
most influential participants in the market over the next
few years, and growth in mobile/NFC is the event
expected to have the greatest impact in shaping the
payments market.
Europe has the highest expected growth in virtual card
technologies of any region.
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings 8
Asia Overview of
Findings Despite the relative strength of the Asian economies, there
is an underlying theme of ‘back to the basics’ – to some
degree replacing the ‘leapfrog’ intentions in previous
surveys.
Unlike other regions, contactless and mobile payments did
not rank highly – possibly reflecting technical / acceptance
issues – although this may change as smart phones become
common.
Instead, there was a focus on developing out bill payment
and domestic debit card systems – with the latter preferred
by respondents over scheme debit.
Payment schemes were expected to play a lesser role into
the future than in other regions – perhaps reflecting the
greater role played by regulators, as well as convergence /
disintermediation.
And despite the generally low rating given to mobile, MNO’s
were ranked as the second most influential participant
moving forward.
Amongst new market entrants mentioned, MNO
consortiums, tech companies (Google, Apple, Paypal) and
major retailers (Carrefour, Amazon) were often mentioned.
Amongst new products / services, Internet-based
technology, mobile & contactless, payment hubs were also
frequently mentioned.
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings 9
Australia & Overview of
Findings
New Zealand
Cards, electronic bill payment and direct entry/ACH are all
scored as highly important payment products (perhaps
due to the ubiquity of BPAY and “pay anyone” on
internet banking).
Contactless and Mobile payments still rank low in
importance, although the highest of any region, but with
high expectations for growth over the next 5 years;
interestingly, mobile as a channel for payments already
scores highly.
The internet channel is expected to show the strongest
growth in the next 5 years (the highest for any region),
just ahead of the mobile channel.
Consumers and Issuers are expected to be the most
influential participants in the payments market over the
next few years, just ahead of Payment Schemes.
As in a number of other regions, growth in mobile/NFC is
the event expected to have the greatest impact in
shaping the payments market.
11. Global Trends in Payment Systems
Summary of 2011 Survey Findings 11
Current relative
importance of
payment products
Globally, credit and charge
cards continue to be perceived
as the most important
payment products – with little
Please score the current relative importance of these payment products in your country?
change from 2010
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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The current importance of individual payment ‘Notably’ higher than global average
products continues to vary significantly by region ‘Notably’ lower than global average
Please score the current relative importance of these payment products in your country?
% Respondents who rated the product as ‘important’ or ‘very important’
Product
Global Europe USA / Canada Asia Australia / NZ
Credit / charge cards 84% 75% 95% 78% 89%
Direct debit / credit / giro / ACH 75% 84% 69% 63% 80%
International scheme debit cards 73% 71% 71% 60% 88%
Electronic bill payments 70% 49% 83% 55% 91%
Cash 67% 64% 57% 84% 65%
Domestic debit cards 66% 58% 82% 49% 72%
Internet based payments 63% 57% 68% 51% 75%
Remittances 39% 31% 39% 63% 34%
Prepaid cards 33% 18% 52% 31% 34%
Mobile payments (remote) 25% 19% 21% 24% 36%
Contactless cards 24% 15% 22% 26% 35%
Cheques 23% 20% 30% 41% 8%
Mobile transfers 21% 9% 24% 24% 30%
Mobile NFC payments 19% 13% 20% 13% 29%
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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Cash appears to be increasing in ‘Notably’ higher than global average
importance in all regions except Europe ‘Notably’ lower than global average
Difference in % of respondents answering ‘important’ or ‘very important’ between 2011 and 2010 surveys
Product Global Europe USA / Canada Asia Australia / NZ
Cash 7% 0% 11% 14% 9%
Mobile payments (remote / to merchants) 1% -3% -3% -10% 18%
Direct debit / direct credit / Giro / ACH 1% 11% -4% -14% 4%
International scheme (Visa & MasterCard) debit cards 1% -4% 1% -2% 5%
Credit / charge cards -1% -3% 3% -5% -3%
Domestic debit cards (e.g. PIN debit in USA) -1% -3% 1% 0% -6%
Electronic bill payments -3% -2% -2% -30% 7%
Cheques -5% -2% -3% -4% -8%
Contactless cards (e.g. PayPass, PayWave, transit) -8% -16% -3% -14% -5%
Mobile NFC payments -8% -12% -11% -21% 8%
Mobile transfers (P2P, remittances) -10% -13% -12% -24% 5%
Internet based payment products (incl. P2P / excl. bill
-10% -9% -5% -25% -8%
payments)
Remittances (excluding Mobile) -11% -8% -10% -19% -7%
Prepaid / stored value cards -13% -18% -12% -16% -8%
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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Over the
next 5 years,
the greatest growth continues
to be expected to occur in
Mobile payments – both NFC
and Remote – followed by What are the 3 payment products which will experience the greatest growth in importance in
your country over the next 5 years?
Contactless Cards
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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Expected growth in importance of Mobile and ‘Notably’ higher than global average
Contactless Card payments is significantly
‘Notably’ lower than global average
lower in Asia than in the other regions
What are the 3 payment products which will experience the greatest growth in importance in your country over the next 5 years?
% Respondents who rated the product as ‘important’ or ‘very important’
Product
Global Europe USA / Canada Asia Australia / NZ
Mobile NFC payments 47% 52% 50% 24% 58%
Mobile payments (remote / to merchants) 46% 49% 54% 35% 42%
Contactless cards (e.g. PayPass, PayWave, transit) 44% 53% 32% 21% 63%
Mobile transfers (P2P, remittances) 34% 25% 35% 39% 38%
Internet based payment products (incl.P2P / excl. bill
31% 35% 29% 34% 28%
payments)
Prepaid / stored value cards 22% 22% 33% 23% 14%
Electronic bill payments 18% 15% 17% 32% 11%
International scheme (Visa & MasterCard) debit cards 12% 15% 2% 12% 17%
Domestic debit cards (e.g. PIN debit in USA) 12% 6% 16% 16% 11%
Credit / charge cards 11% 8% 11% 24% 5%
Direct debit / direct credit / Giro / ACH 9% 8% 10% 14% 2%
Remittances (excluding Mobile) 4% 2% 4% 10% 1%
Cash 3% 1% 2% 11% 2%
Cheques 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
16. Global Trends in Payment Systems
Global Trends in Payment Systems
Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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As a payment channel the Internet is perceived to be as
important as the ‘traditional’ Point of Sale terminal
with overall results very similar to 2010
Please score the current relative importance of these payment channels in your country?
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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Bank branch and ATM
retain significantly
higher importance as a
payment channel in Asia
than in the other regions
surveyed
‘Notably’ higher than global average
‘Notably’ lower than global average
Please score the current relative importance of these payment channels in your country?
% Respondents who rated the product as ‘important’ or ‘very important’
Channel
Global Europe USA / Canada Asia Australia / NZ
Point of sale (e.g. purchases, prepaid top-up) 89% 89% 93% 84% 89%
Online / internet 86% 84% 92% 75% 94%
ATMs & self service devices (e.g. kiosks) 76% 72% 73% 86% 75%
Mobile 43% 34% 49% 39% 55%
Bank branch 33% 27% 20% 56% 31%
Telephone (IVR, customer service officer) 20% 15% 18% 21% 25%
Agencies (e.g. post office) 15% 14% 5% 28% 14%
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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The Mobile and
Internet channels
are expected to
continue to grow in
importance in the What are the 3 payment channels which will experience the greatest growth in importance in
your country over the next 5 years?
coming 5 years
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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The growth in
importance of the
Mobile channel was
significant in all regions,
and highest in USA /
Canada
‘Notably’ higher than global average
‘Notably’ lower than global average
What are the 3 payment channels which will experience the greatest growth in importance in your country over the next 5 years?
% Respondents who rated the product as ‘important’ or ‘very important’
Channel
Global Europe USA / Canada Asia Australia / NZ
Mobile 92% 94% 100% 82% 94%
Online / Internet 89% 92% 87% 83% 95%
Point of Sale 57% 58% 55% 60% 54%
ATMs & self service 32% 22% 31% 56% 25%
Telephone 6% 6% 5% 3% 9%
Agencies (e.g. Post office) 4% 6% 1% 5% 4%
Bank branch 2% 2% 0% 5% 1%
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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Globally, smart phones will drive the What are the mobile channels which will
growth in mobile, however basic experience the greatest growth in importance
in your country over the next 5 years?
phones will still play a key role in
‘developing’ payments markets
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings 21
Given the expected
future growth of Mobile
and Contactless, it is not
surprising that related
technologies are also Which 3 payment technologies will experience the greatest growth in importance in your
country over the next 5 years?
often mentioned
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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Reflecting the expected trends in payment products, the ‘Notably’ higher than global average
growth in importance of payment technologies also
‘Notably’ lower than global average
tends to vary significantly by region
Which 3 payment technologies will experience the greatest growth in importance in your country over the next 5 years?
% Respondents who rated the product as ‘important’ or ‘very important’
Product
Global Europe USA / Canada Asia Australia / NZ
Mobile based technology (excluding NFC) 64% 76% 60% 42% 72%
Contactless / NFC technology 64% 56% 62% 60% 75%
Internet based technology 48% 54% 36% 63% 41%
Security / authentication technology 33% 32% 39% 37% 27%
Payment hubs (shared payment infrastructure) 22% 16% 17% 38% 20%
Fraud detection technology 20% 20% 23% 17% 19%
Contact chip technology (including display, key pad) 19% 14% 24% 18% 19%
Virtual Cards 17% 21% 20% 11% 18%
Credit evaluation / risk assessment technology 8% 4% 11% 11% 6%
23. Global Trends in Payment Systems
Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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The role of Central Banks /
Regulators is seen as less
significant this year (32%
of respondents versus
44% in 2010), with
Consumers and Telcos In 5 years time, who do you believe will be the 3 most influential market participants in your
country?
coming to the fore…
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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…although 62% of Asian respondents believe ‘Notably’ higher than global average
that Central Banks / Regulators will have a
‘Notably’ lower than global average
major influence over the next five years
In 5 years time, who do you believe will be the 3 most influential market participants in your country?
% Respondents who rated the product as ‘important’ or ‘very important’
Market Participant
Global Europe USA / Canada Asia Australia / NZ
Consumers 38% 32% 49% 35% 40%
Telecommunications / mobile network operators 37% 42% 33% 43% 30%
Card issuers 32% 29% 30% 29% 40%
Payment associations / schemes 32% 34% 37% 17% 38%
Central banks / regulators 32% 25% 18% 62% 26%
Merchants 24% 29% 32% 15% 18%
Financial institutions - other than issuer / acquirer 23% 21% 16% 37% 20%
Payment processors / networks 19% 18% 22% 21% 17%
Mobile handset manufacturers 18% 17% 18% 9% 27%
Merchant acquirers 12% 12% 9% 9% 15%
System vendors / service providers 12% 14% 12% 11% 11%
Other government agencies 2% 2% 1% 6% 1%
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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Payments professionals
believe that the growth of
Mobile / NFC is going to
be the key driver in
shaping the immediate
future of payments Which of the following events will have the greatest impact in shaping the payments market
within your country over the next 3 years?
markets
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Summary of 2011 Survey Findings
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Growth of Mobile / NFC is considered to be the key ‘Notably’ higher than global average
driver in shaping the immediate future of
‘Notably’ lower than global average
payments markets across all regions surveyed
Which of the following events will have the greatest impact in shaping the payments market within your country over the next 3 years?
% Respondents who rated the product as ‘important’ or ‘very important’
Event
Global Europe USA / Canada Asia Australia / NZ
Growth of Mobile / NFC 77% 76% 76% 65% 89%
Technology advancements 47% 40% 53% 41% 56%
New market entrants 43% 54% 41% 31% 43%
Regulator changes to pricing (e.g. interchange,
41% 43% 51% 32% 37%
surcharging)
Regulator changes to industry practices (e.g. consumer
32% 27% 35% 50% 21%
lending, levying of fees)
Regulator changes to processing (e.g. domestic, scheme
21% 16% 13% 42% 18%
separation)
Industry mergers / acquisitions 18% 25% 12% 21% 11%