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Technology at work
1. Carl Benedikt Frey Michael Osborne
With contributions from Citi Research
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Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions
February 2015
TECHNOLOGY AT WORK
The Future of Innovation and Employment
2. Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions February 2015
Carl Benedikt Frey is Co-Director for the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment
and Oxford Martin Citi Fellow. He is a Doctor of Economic History at Lund University, an Economics
Associate of Nuffield College, University of Oxford and Specialist Advisor to the Digital Skills Select
Committee of the House of Lords. His research interests include the transition of industrial nations to
digital economies and subsequent challenges for economic growth and employment. In particular, his
work focuses on technology shocks and associated impacts on labour markets and urban development.
His work has been covered by the BBC, CNN, The Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal,
Bloomberg, BusinessWeek, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Der Spiegel, Scientific
American, TIME Magazine, Forbes, and many other outlets.
Michael Osborne is Co-Director for the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment
and Associate Professor in Machine Learning at the University of Oxford. He is an Official Fellow of
Exeter College, University of Oxford and a Faculty Member of the Oxford-Man Institute for Quantitative
Finance. He is an expert in the development of machine intelligence in sympathy with societal needs.
His work on robust and scalable inference algorithms in machine learning has been successfully
applied in diverse and challenging contexts, from aiding the detection of planets in distant solar
systems to enabling self-driving cars to determine when their maps may have changed due to
roadworks. He also has deep interests in the broader societal consequences of machine learning and
robotics, and has analysed how intelligent algorithms might soon substitute for human workers.
Robert Buckland
Managing Director
Chief Global Equity Strategist
+44-20-7986-3947
robert.buckland@citi.com
Natalia Mamaeva
Director
Head of European Engineering Research
+44-20-7986-4077
natalia.mamaeva@citi.com
Graeme McDonald
Director
Japanese Machinery & Shipbuilding
Analyst
+81-3-6270-4732
graeme.mcdonald@citi.com
Ebrahim Rahbari
Director
Global Economics Team
+44-20-7986-6522
ebrahim.rahbari@citi.com
Joe Seydl
Senior Associate
Global Economics Team
+1-212-816-2473
joseph.seydl@citi.com
Robert Garlick
Managing Director
Global Equity Product Head
+44-20-7986-3547
robert.j.garlick@citi.com
Contributors
James Ainley
European Hotels & Leisure Analyst
Klaus Bergelind
European Machinery Analyst
Scott T Chronert
US Small/Mid-Cap/ETF Strategist
Andrew Coombs
European Banks Analyst
Jason Gursky
US Aerospace & Defence Analyst
Keith Horowitz, CFA
US Banks & Brokers Analyst
WIliam R Katz
US Brokers & Asset Managers Analyst
Arthur Lai
Asian Display and Touch Panel Analyst
Dr. Alex Leveringhaus
Oxford Martin School
Atif Malik
European Semiconductor Analyst
Mark May
US Internet Analyst
Itay Michaeli
US Autos & Auto Parts Analyst
Justin Morris
European Med Tech & Services Analyst
Walter H Pritchard, CFA
US Software Analyst
Ashwin Shirvaikar, CFA
US Computer Services & IT Consulting Analyst
Jim Suva, CPA
US IT Hardware & Supply Chain Analyst
Philip Watkins
European Autos Analyst
Kenneth Wong, CFA
US IT Hardware & Software Analyst
4. The Changing Nature of Innovation and Work
Addressing inequality brought on by technological change
ANNUAL SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS BY REGION PERCENT OF US JOBS AT RISK DUE TO COMPUTERISATION
Asia
Source: IFR World Robotics 2014 Source: Frey & Osborne (2013)
Europe
Americas
HIGH
47%
MEDIUM
19%
LOW
33%
186,000
55,000
2017E
40,000
2014
2012
46,000
41,218
28,137
33,700
120,000
84,645
5. PRODUCTIVITY HAS INCREASED FASTER THAN WAGES IN THE US
WHILE INCOME SHARE OF THE TOP 0.1% HAS INCREASED
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Citi Research
Source: World of Top Incomes Database, Citi Research
250
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
210
170
130
90
50
Real output per hour worked
Real compensation per hour worked
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US UK France Japan