EconoTimes PRO http://pro.econotimes.com/

1. FX Beat Inside View
Page 2 Market Recap, Treasuries,
Briefs, Institutional Positions
Page 3 Economic Data Preview,
Key events, Top News
Page 4 Fundamental Analysis
Page 5 Economy Watch, Trade
Views
Page 6 Individual Forecasts
Page 7 Hedging Perspectives
Page 8 Trade Positions
Page 9 Technical Analysis
Page 10 Trade Idea
For questions or comments
reach us at
info@econotimes.com
For more information about our
products visit
www.econotimes.com
©EconoTimes 2016. All rights
reserved. EconoTimes content
received through this service is
the intellectual property of
EconoTimes or its third party
suppliers. Republication or redis-
tribution of content provided by
EconoTimes is expressly prohib-
ited without the prior written
consent of EconoTimes, except
where permitted by the terms of
the relevant EconoTimes service
agreement. Neither EconoTimes
nor its third party suppliers shall
be liable for any errors, omissions
or delays in content, or for any
actions taken in reliance thereon.
● USD: The dollar index was down about 0.1 percent at 99.025. The greenback shed
about 0.1 percent to 116.75 yen after falling to 115.97 on Wednesday, undermined
by U.S. data.
● EUR/USD: Ahead of the ECB meeting, the euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.0905 in
early European trade, down from an overnight high of $1.0976 and virtually un-
changed from levels seen immediately after the ECB's last meeting in December. The
ECB is expected to keep the policy measures unchanged at the first meeting of
2016. Interest rates are expected to be at 0.05%, the deposit rate facility at -0.30%
and marginal lending rate at 0.30%. Technically the pair is facing strong resistance
around 1.1000 and break above will take it to next level 1.1060/1.1100 level. On the
downside support is around 1.0800 and break below targets 1.0710/1.06700 level.
● USD/JPY: The yen has recovered till 117.47 after making a low of 116 and was
trading around 116.88. Short term trend is still weak as long as resistance 117.50
holds. The major support is around 115.50 (Dec 2014 low) and break below targets
114.80/114. On the higher side minor resistance is around 117 and break above will
take the pair till 117.50/118.
● GBP/USD: Sterling slid back towards a 7-year low against the dollar on Thursday, as
investors found few reasons to buy the currency due to a slew of potential risks to
the UK economy and with no interest rate rise in sight. It was once again on the
back foot on Thursday, down 0.1 percent at $1.4185. The intraday trend is still weak
as long as resistance 1.4200 holds. Any break above 1.4200 will take the pair to next
level 1.4235/1.4250. On the downside support is around 1.4120 and break below
targets 1.4000/1.4365. Overall bearish invalidation is only above 1.4360. The ster-
ling was 0.2 percent down against the euro at 76.835 pence, close to 1-year low of
77.56 pence.
● USD/CHF: The pair has once again recovered after making a low of 0.9990 and was
trading around 1.00575. The major resistance is around 1.0880 and any break above
will take the pair to next level around 1.0125/1.018/1.0250.The minor resistance is
around 1.0060. On the lower side major support is around 0.9980 and break below
will drag the pair till 0.9950/0.9920. Overall bullish invalidation is only below 0.9920.
● AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was down 0.2 percent at $0.6894 in the Asian
session having traded almost flat following the mild rebound in crude oil prices. It
was trading around 03909 at the time of writing. On the higher side major resistance
is around 0.6960 and break above targets 0.7000/0.7025. The major support is
around 0.6820 and break below will drag the pair till 0.6760/0.6590. Overall trend is
still bearish as long as resistance 0.7025. Against the safe-heaven yen, the Aussie
rallied 1-1/2-yen to 81.52, pulling back from 3-1/2-year lows touched in the last
session.
● NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar rose 0.5 percent to $0.6460, after Wall Street
pared losses toward the end of the U.S. session. Support was found around 64 cents,
the 76.4 percent retracement of the Sept-Oct move. Resistance was seen at this
week's peak of $0.6514. The kiwi touched a 4-month low of $0.6348 on Wednesday.
1
January 21st, 2016
www.econotimes.com

2. 2 www.econotimes.com
Market Recap
● European shares were steady on Thursday after
global markets wiped off trillions of dollars in the
last two days. London's FTSE rose 0.2-0.4 percent
in early trades gains, Germany's DAX rose 0.2 per-
cent, France's CAC 40 increased 0.1 pct, while the
FTSEurofirst 300 gained 0.4 pct.
● Japan's Nikkei ended down 2.4pct, adding to its
3.7pct drop in the previous session. China stocks
ended down 3 pct after a volatile session. MSCI's
broadest index of Asia -Pacific shares outside Ja-
pan hit a new 4-year low. HongKong's Hang Seng
Index closed down 1.8 pct at 18,542.15 points.
● Oil dropped back towards 12-year lows on persis-
tent concerns about a supply overhang and the de-
mand outlook. The international benchmark Brent
was down 43 cents at $27.45 per barrel by 0913
GMT. Brent has lost 26pct so far in January, on
track for its biggest monthly fall since 2008. Front-
month West Texas Intermediate crude futures
traded at $28.09 per barrel, down 26 cents from
their previous close.
● Gold climbed to a near 1-1/2-week high, with its
safe-haven appeal intact as equities and oil gave up
early gains. Spot gold was up 0.3pct at $1,103.80
an ounce by 0709 GMT.
Treasuries
● U.S. 30-year Treasury bond rose nearly 2 points in
price, 30-year yield last stood at 2.715 pct.
● German bund futures opened 25 ticks lower at
160.88, Portuguese 10-year yields rose 6 basis
points to 3 percent, pulling the gap with German
equivalents to its widest since October 2014. Ital-
ian equivalent yields were up 3 bps at 1.69 percent,
the gap was the widest since August last year.
● Australian government bond futures eased, with
the 3-year bond contract off 2 ticks at 98.110. The
10-year contract also fell 2 to 97.3250, but the 20-
year contract added half a tick to 96.8400. New
Zealand government bonds eased slightly, pushing
yields up 1.5 basis points across the curve.
Market Briefs
● USD/JPY back above 117 after sliding to 115.97
Wed. Plays 116.47/117.48.
● Rebound in crude oil and equities help dollar re-
cover.
● EUR/USD up initially to 1.0921 but eases to
1.0885 in Europe.
● GBP/USD consolidates above Wed's 1.4125 7 year
low. Plays 1.4152/1.4202.
● Russian ruble plummets to new lows as pressure
builds.
● USD/RUB comes close to new record high 86 be-
fore retreating.
● UK Dec RICS housing survey +50 vs previous 49.
50 expected.
● Greece accepts IMF participation in bailout plan -
Dijsselbloem.
● Kremlin says ruble is volatile, but "not collapsing".
● Davos- IMF Lagarde: China's structural reform are
"massive undertaking".
● Davos- China to honor its commitment on reforms
related to SDR entry.
● Davos- IMF Lagarde: China should communicate
better with financial markets.
● China's Dec commercial banks' net forex sales at
$89.4 bln.
● Capital outflows from China eased in Q4-FX regu-
lator.
● Unnamed JP Abe aide: JPY has to stop rising, BoJ
should act next week – WSJ
● Abe aide Shibayama: BoJ ease not on the cards.
Institutional Positions
● J.P. Morgan: Stay short EUR/SEK but with an intervention
floor, short EUR/CHF and short EUR/CZK.
● Societe Generale: Short EUR/PLN, entry 4.2380, target
4.0700, stop 4.3200 P/L -1.93%.
● Societe Generale: Long USD/TRY, entry 2.9600, target
3.1500, stop 2.8800, P/L -0.78%.
● Societe Generale: Short TRY/MXN, entry 5.8000, target
5.43, stop 5.94, P/L -2.41%.
● J.P. Morgan: Stay long USD/SGD from 1.3721 July 24,
marked at +5.11%.
● J.P. Morgan: Buy 3m AUD/USD ATM vs sell USD/CAD
3m 25d, 1.5 x 1 AUD vega, P/L -3.3 vol.
● Societe Generale: We are still be a long term CAD bulls vs
AUD and NZD.
● BoFA Merrill Lynch: We are medium-term bearish EUR,
but see short-term risks.
● Barclays: Keep long USD/BRL, targeting 4.24.

3. Economic Data Preview
● (0745 ET/1245 GMT) The European Central Bank
is likely to stand pat when its policymakers meet
on Thursday, even as a market crash, tumbling
bank stocks and ebbing inflation set the stage for
action later in the year.
● (0800 ET/1300 GMT) Brazil payroll data is ex-
pected to show about 1.5 million Brazilians lost
their jobs in 2015, in a year when the economy
contracted at its steepest pace in 25 years. The
economy shed a net 655,000 payroll jobs in De-
cember.
● (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The number of Americans
filing for jobless benefits likely slipped to 278,000
from 284,000 the prior week, showing little signs
of a pick-up in layoffs despite a recent sharp slow-
down in economic growth and financial markets
turmoil. The continuing claims probably dropped to
2.248M from 2.263M.
● (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia releases its manufacturing survey for
January, which likely dropped to 5 after falling to
5.9 in December.
● (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The European Commission's
Consumer Confidence Index for January is likely to
show a drop to 5, the index fell to 5.7 in December.
● (1030 ET/1530 GMT) EIA's Natural Gas Storage
change for the week ending Jan 15 is expected to
be at -180B.
● (1100 ET/1600 GMT) EIA's Crude Oil Stocks
change for the week ending Jan 15 is likely to re-
main at 3.000M.
Key Events
● (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The ECB releases its mone-
tary policy statement and the president speaks at
press conference.
● (1045 ET/1545 GMT) FedTrade Operation 15-year
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $525 mn).
Top News
● The European Central Bank is likely to keep inter-
est rates on hold when its policymakers meet on
Thursday, even as a market crash, tumbling bank
stocks and ebbing inflation set the stage for action
later in the year.
● Investors are trying to beat a tax increase on buy-
to-let properties in Britain, helping to push up
house prices last month, according to a survey.
● At first glance there is something odd about Italy's
economic data. For months the country’s consumer
and business sentiment has been stronger than
almost other countries in the euro zone, yet eco-
nomic activity still lags its peers.
● Blood-letting in global markets is dominating cor-
ridor talk as business leaders and policymakers
meet in Davos, although so far the view is that it
doesn't signal a financial crisis.
● The International Monetary Fund said on Wednes-
day it ended an exemption to its lending rules that
had allowed it to make major loans to Greece, Ire-
land and Portugal in 2010 and 2011 to fight a
growing euro-area sovereign debt crisis.
● Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he
is not thinking of adopting a negative interest rate
policy now, hinting that any further monetary eas-
ing will likely take form of an expansion of its cur-
rent massive asset-buying programme.
● South Africa's credit rating would be downgraded
if further policy mistakes are made and if growth
continues to disappoint, the regional head of Stan-
dard & Poor's said on Thursday.
● Moves by China's central bank to inject over 600
billion yuan ($91.19 billion) in liquidity ahead of
the Lunar New Year holidays could substitute for a
cut in the amount of cash that banks must hold as
reserves, the chief economist at the People's Bank
of China (PROC) was quoted a paper as saying on
Thursday.
● Foreign direct investment into Indonesia rose al-
most 20pct in terms of rupiah in 2015 from a year
ago as investment in the final quarter jumped after
a series of government stimulus measures.
3 www.econotimes.com

4. 4 www.econotimes.com
FundamentalAnalysis
Sovereign downgrades likely to accelerate in 2016, suggests
S&P's report
Standard & Poor's global sovereign ratings outlook published
in Jan showed that the number of investment grade sovereign
ratings ('BBB- or above) amongst the 131 sovereigns rated by
S&P globally, is just over 53%, the lowest level ever. Similarly,
the number of 'AAA' rated sovereigns has now declined to 13,
from 19 in December 2010, however the 'AAA' share in the
total rated sovereigns is off its all-time low of 9% recorded in
mid-2015.
Since mid-2008 sovereign downgrades have generally out-
numbered upgrades. The eroding credit quality of rated sov-
ereigns goes some way to explain the mild decline seen in the
unweighted average sovereign rating. Over the past five
years, S&P has lowered two sovereign ratings per month on
average, but raised only one. This pattern was continued in
2015, despite a mild uptick in upgrades.
The trend is also expected to continue into 2016, with more
downgrades likely for the year. Negative outlooks have out-
numbered positive outlooks since early 2008. The second
half of 2015 has seen a reversal of the gradually improving
trend in the outlook balance that had begun in 2013. On Dec.
31, 2015, the 25 negative outlooks outnumbered eight posi-
tive outlooks by a ratio of 3 to 1.
Over the past year, the outlook balance has deteriorated in all
global regions except Asia-Pacific. The deterioration was
most pronounced in the Middle East, Commonwealth of In-
dependent States (CIS) and Africa, while Europe has seen the
strongest improvement among all regions in its outlook bal-
ance since 2011. At year-end 2015, there were three positive
outlooks in the Eurozone (Cyprus, Malta, Slovenia) and two
negative ones (France and Finland).
For 2016, China appears to top the list of economic concerns.
For Sovereigns and businesses that borrow internationally,
Fed hike has seen financing costs increase through 2015. That
said global oil prices appear likely to remain low in 2016,
which will provide support for economic activity and trade
accounts for the many oil importers in the region.

5. 5 www.econotimes.com
Economy Watch
● Barclays: We reduce our forecast for Q4 2015 US real GDP growth to 0.5%.
● BOC expects non-commodity exports to lead the recovery, growing nearly 21% from 2q15 levels by the end of 2017.
● Reuters Survey: 51 pct of Japan firms call for BOJ fresh stimulus this year, 49 pct see no need.
● Reuters Survey: 48 pct of Japan firms see no escape from deflation this year.
● U.S. economy on track to grow 0.7 pct in fourth quarter, up from +0.6 pct estimate Jan 15-Atlanta Fed's GDPnow Model.
● Barclays economists raise U.S. Q4 GDP view to 0.4 pct from 0.3 pct after U.S. Dec CPI data.
● Yaresko says expects Ukraine economy to grow in 2016; global slowdown may force review of original 2 pct growth f’cast.
● European Commission February growth forecasts for EU, euro zone to be largely unchanged –Moscovici.
● Italy Economy Minister Padoan says ECB bank oversight chief said on Wednesday there will be no intervention in Italian
banks.
● Hungary Econ minister believes good chance to receive an investment rating upgrade this year, before summer is an option.
● Kenya's central bank governor says sees current account deficit of below 8.5 pct in 2015 from 10.4 pct in 2014, to narrow
further in 2016.
Policy Watch
● Nordea Markets: US Fed is still believed to continue hiking, although the renewed slump in oil prices might delay the next
hike until mid-2016.
● Westpac: RBA to remain on hold for some time, but the RBNZ to ease again later this year after evidence of persistently low
inflation emerges.
● RBNZ to stand pat, with the first of two 25bps rate cuts this year to come in March- RBC Capital Markets.
● Bank of Canada will be on hold through the remainder of this year, but the risks of a cut in the near-term are still apprecia-
ble- RBC capital markets.
● Morgan Stanley: Lower inflation expectations could bring further RBNZ rate cuts back on the table too.
● Morgan Stanley: RMB real rates should come down as China’s authorities try to control the pace of de-leveraging.
● Reuters Survey- Hungary's benchmark rate seen flat through 2016, rising to 1.83 pct by end-2017.
● Reuters Survey- All 21 analysts say Hungarian central bank will keep main rate on hold at Jan 26 meeting.
Trade Views
● China central bank: Total social financing outstanding at end-2015 138.14 trln yuan.
● Westpac: Expected RBA vs RBNZ direction, plus strong M&A flow into the AUD, favors AUD/NZD upside over the next
few months to beyond 1.10.
● Westpac: Multi-month, we expect to see NZD/USD lower towards 0.62 as the divergent monetary policies of the fed and
RBNZ play out.
● Morgan Stanley: We expect a range-bound EUR over coming weeks as downward pressure from negative rates.
● Morgan Stanley: With the EU bringing more milk supply to market and a slowing Chinese economy, NZD looks vulnerable.
● Morgan Stanley: The outlook for AUD continues to deteriorate, with Australian terms of trade, capital expenditures and
housing all pointing downward.
● Survey- China yuan short positions fall slightly on PBOC stabilization efforts.
● Survey- India rupee bearish bets highest since august 2013 on equity outflows.
● Survey- S.Korea won short positions largest since late august on stock outflows.
● Survey-Taiwan dollar short positions near 5-month peak on elections, weak economy.
● Survey- Indonesia rupiah sentiment least pessimistic among Asia FX on bond inflows.

6. Forecasts
6 www.econotimes.com
EUR/USD
CONTRIBUTORS 1 MTH 3 MTHS 6 MTHS 12 MTHS
4CAST 1.0640 1.0400 1.0100 1.0000
AIB 1.0800 1.0700 1.0600 1.0500
ANZ BANK 1.0700 1.0500 1.0200 1.1000
ALPHA BANK 1.0640 1.0500 1.0200 1.0400
AUREL 1.0500 1.0300 1.0500 1.0200
BBVA 1.0600 1.0500 1.0800 1.1200
BHF BANK 1.1200 1.1200 1.1200 1.1200
BMO 1.0800 1.0750 1.0600 1.0300
BNP PARIBAS 1.0700 1.0400 1.0200 1.0200
BANCO BPI 1.0700 1.0500 1.0700 1.1000
BANCO SANTANDER 1.0900 1.1200 1.1300 1.1800
BANK OF AMERICA 1.0300 1.0000 1.0000 0.9500
BANK OF TM U 1.0700 1.0600 1.0300 1.0600
CA CIB -- 1.0400 1.0300 1.0300
CIBC 1.0800 1.0700 1.1000 1.1300
CREDIT SUISSE 1.0700 1.0400 1.0300 1.0000
DNB 1.0700 1.0500 1.0300 1.0000
DZ BANK 1.0700 1.0400 1.0400 1.0400
DANSKE BANK 1.0600 1.0600 1.1000 1.1600
DESJARDINS 1.0600 1.0500 1.0300 1.0200
EUROBANK ERGA 1.0800 1.1000 1.1200 1.1700
GOLDMAN SACHS 1.0900 1.0700 1.0500 1.0000
HSBC 1.1100 1.1500 1.1600 1.2000
IHS GLOBAL 1.0800 1.0600 1.0500 1.1000
ING FIN MARKETS 1.0500 1.0200 0.9800 1.1000
INFORMAGLOBAL 1.0900 1.0800 1.0500 1.0300
INVESTEC 1.0700 1.0600 1.0800 1.1500
JULIUS BAER 1.0700 1.0600 1.0700 1.1500
LBBW -- 1.0500 1.0500 1.0800
LBK HESSEN 1.0800 1.0500 1.1000 1.0500
MIZUHO SECURITIES 1.0600 1.0500 1.0300 1.0300
MORGAN STANLEY 1.0700 1.0140 1.0300 1.0000
NAB -- 1.0500 1.0500 1.0700
NOMURA 1.0700 1.0500 1.0000 1.0000
NORDEA BANK 1.0844 1.0809 1.0440 1.0052
OCBC 1.1000 1.1170 1.0913 1.0400
POHJOLA BANK 1.0800 1.0800 1.0600 1.0500
RBC 1.0700 1.0300 1.0000 1.0200
RABOBANK 1.0800 1.0600 1.0500 1.0400
RBS 1.0600 1.0200 1.0000 0.9600
SEB 1.0700 1.0300 1.0000 1.0300
SAXO BANK 1.0500 1.0100 0.9700 0.9500
SCOTIABANK 1.0700 1.0500 1.0000 0.9500
ST GEORGE BANK 1.0600 1.0500 1.0600 1.0700
SWEDBANK 1.0800 1.0400 1.0300 1.0900
TD SECURITIES -- 1.0300 1.0600 1.1200
UNICREDIT 1.0500 1.0500 1.0700 1.1200
WELLS FARGO 1.1000 1.1000 1.0700 1.0200
WESTPAC -- 1.0500 1.0200 1.0300
ZUERCHER KAN 1.0900 1.0500 1.0400 1.0300
USD/CAD
CONTRIBUTORS 1 MTH 3 MTHS 6 MTHS 12 MTHS
4CAST 1.4000 1.4200 1.4500 1.4400
BARCLAYS -- 1.3600 1.3700 1.4000
BAYERNLB -- 1.3600 1.3200 1.2900
BBVA 1.3900 1.3800 1.3200 1.2100
BMO 1.3850 1.4050 1.4200 1.3750
BNP PARIBAS 1.3800 1.3800 1.3900 1.3800
BOFAML 1.3800 1.4500 1.4400 1.4000
BTMU 1.4100 1.4200 1.4000 1.3300
CA-CIB -- 1.3700 1.3800 1.3600
CIBC 1.4000 1.4200 1.3700 1.3200
CITIGROUP -- 1.4200 -- 1.3800
COMMERZBANK -- 1.3500 1.3600 1.3000
CREDIT SUISSE 1.3800 1.3600 1.3700 1.4000
DANSKE BANK 1.3500 1.3600 1.3300 1.3000
DEKABANK -- 1.3100 1.3300 1.2900
DESJARDINS 1.4000 1.3900 1.3500 1.3300
DEUTSCHE BANK -- 1.3900 1.4000 1.4300
DZ BANK 1.4000 1.3200 1.3000 1.2800
GOLDMAN SACHS 1.3900 1.3200 1.3500 1.4000
HELABA 1.3600 1.3300 1.3200 1.3000
HSBC 1.3900 1.4000 1.3500 1.2500
IFR MARKETS 1.4050 1.4250 1.4550 1.3550
IHS GLOBAL 1.3882 1.3820 1.3619 1.3188
INFORMAGLOBAL 1.4000 1.4000 1.4400 1.4500
ING FINANCIAL 1.3700 1.4200 1.3800 1.3500
INVESTEC 1.3700 1.3500 1.3300 1.2900
JULIUS BAER 1.3900 1.3700 1.3600 1.3200
LBBW -- 1.3600 1.3300 1.3000
MORGAN STANLEY 1.3900 1.3800 1.4100 1.4500
NAB -- 1.4700 1.4700 1.4600
NATIXIS -- 1.4400 1.4200 1.3700
NB FINANCIAL -- 1.4000 1.3700 1.3100
NOMURA 1.3800 1.3500 1.3600 1.3700
NORDEA BANK 1.3636 1.3124 1.2712 1.2352
OCBC 1.4130 1.4250 1.4350 1.4550
RABOBANK 1.3900 1.3900 1.4000 1.3700
RBC 1.4100 1.4500 1.4000 1.3300
RBS 1.3800 1.3200 1.3300 1.3000
SANTANDER 1.3500 1.2800 1.2400 1.1800
SAXO BANK 1.4100 1.4200 1.4500 1.4800
SCOTIABANK 1.3700 1.3700 1.3800 1.3900
SEB 1.3600 1.3700 1.3300 1.2600
SOCIETE GENERALE -- 1.3400 1.3500 1.3100
ST GEORGE BANK 1.3200 1.3000 1.2900 1.2800
STANDARD CHART -- 1.4100 1.3800 1.4000
SWEDBANK 1.3900 1.4000 1.4000 1.3500
TD SECURITIES -- 1.4000 1.3700 1.3300
UNICREDIT 1.2700 1.2700 1.2600 1.2300
WELLS FARGO 1.3700 1.3700 1.3800 1.4000
ZKB 1.3900 1.3600 1.3500 1.3400

7. 7 www.econotimes.com
Hedging Perspectives
EUR/CAD seems to be edgy, deploy option strips for hedging and speculating
This Thursday ECB President Draghi faces a tough task curbing the appeal of the single currency. The euro jump in recent
trend is major due to the massive price drops in crude prices to $28 way below the ECB projections for 2016 ($52.2) and the
causing drop in inflation prospects present a stern encounter to the divided governing council opinions.
On the flip side, 25 bps cut is not completely factored in from CAD side, With an approximate 60% probability to this effect,
swings in Canada/US rate differentials could be key to USD/CAD testing 1.50 or retracing below 1.40 and EUR/CAD to
1.5425 levels.
Technically, we foresee more downside potential in EURCAD as bearish signals from leading oscillators (RSI & Slow Stoch
pops up overbought pressures) and "bearish gartley" formed on weekly charts, so the bulls seem to be exhausted at 1.5959
levels and claiming price dips from last two days, more slumps further are on cards. Hence, the next immediate targets south-
wards seen at 1.5425 levels.
Hold 2W At-The-Money 0.51 delta call and simultaneously hold 2 lots of 1M At-The-Money -0.48 delta put options. Huge
profits achievable with the strip strategy when EUR/CAD exchange rate makes a strong move either upwards or downwards
at expiration, with greater gains to be made with a downward move. The profitability can be maximized for every shift to-
wards downside and this is not the same on upside.
What makes ATM instrument more productive in our strategy: the delta of this instrument is here at its fastest rate and gets
faster as your position come closer to the expiration date. As a result, time decay may have a relevant impact on ATM options .
Please be informed that the trader can still make money even if his anticipation goes wrong - but the underlying pair has to
move in the opposite direction really fast. The 1 call bought has to beat the cost of buying all the options and still bring in
some profits.

8. Trade Positions
8 www.econotimes.com
EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD EUR/GBP
RESIST3 1.1000 117.61 1.4235 1.0106 0.7003 0.7799
RESIST2 1.0994 117.48 1.4232 1.0092 0.6957 0.7781
RESIST1 1.0985 117.16 1.4197 1.0082 0.6942 0.7756
SUPPT1 1.0860 116.47 1.4125 0.9991 0.6827 0.7655
SUPPT2 1.0855 115.97 1.4000 0.9984 0.6790 0.7600
SUPPT3 1.0824 115.85 1.3655 0.9969 0.6765 0.7597
Strategy SHORT SHORT SELL BUY SHORT LONG
Price 1.0900 117.20 1.4235 0.9958 0.6900 0.7610
Target 1.0715 116.10 - - 0.6530 0.8060
Stop 1.1005 117.50 - - 0.7050 0.7580
EUR/JPY EUR/CHF USD/CAD GBP/JPY EUR/NOK EUR/SEK
RESIST3 128.34 1.1000 1.4709 184.65 9.7725 9.4360
RESIST2 128.00 1.0985 1.4700 183.95 9.7475 9.4090
RESIST1 127.69 1.0980 1.4700 183.37 9.6460 9.3980
SUPPT1 127.14 1.0910 1.4500 182.19 9.5315 9.3150
SUPPT2 126.64 1.0871 1.4400 181.04 9.5125 9.2925
SUPPT3 126.28 1.0860 1.4400 180.00 9.4815 9.2810
Strategy SELL SHORT BUY SHORT SELL SELL
Price 128.10 1.0940 1.4410 182.62 9.7400 9.3425
Target - 1.0871 - 180.10 - -
Stop - 1.0990 - 184.30 - -
NZD/USD AUD/NZD AUD/JPY USD/SEK USD/NOK USD/ZAR
RESIST3 0.6516 1.0809 101.24 - - 16.9970
RESIST2 0.6496 1.0791 99.91 - - 16.9710
RESIST1 0.6417 1.0788 99.01 - - 16.9600
SUPPT1 0.6348 1.0679 95.17 - - 16.6080
SUPPT2 0.6340 1.0660 94.78 - - 16.5750
SUPPT3 0.6289 1.0609 94.00 - - 16.3825
Strategy SHORT LONG - SELL - SHORT
Price 0.6510 1.0735 - - - 16.7200
Target 0.6200 1.1260 - - - 16.3850
Stop- 0.6515 1.0490 - - - 16.9800
Source: Aggregate trading positions of traders reported on Thomson Reuters FX matching platform

9. 9 www.econotimes.com
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades in narrow range, markets await ECB meeting for further direction
● EUR/USD is trading in a very narrow range between 1.0800-1.1000 for the past 10 trading session. Markets await ECB
first policy meeting of this year 2016 for further direction.
● The ECB is expected to keep the policy measures unchanged at this meeting. The market expects ECB to maintains its in-
terest rates at 0.05%, the deposit rate facility at -0.30% and marginal lending rate at 0.30%.
● The central bank will also keep the asset purchase program unchanged at €60bn a month until 2017.
● ECB will likely to refrain from adding more easing this week but President Mario Draghi press conference which is to be
held after policy announcement will be watched closely for further easing in the future.
● Technically the pair is facing strong resistance around 1.1000 and break above will take the pair to next level
1.1060/1.1100 level.
● On the downside support is around 1.0800 and break below targets 1.0710/1.06700 level.
It is good to buyat dips around 1.0850 with SL around 1.07980 for theTPof 1.0975/1.1000

10. 10 www.econotimes.com
Trade Idea
We prefer to long EUR/CAD at dips
Major support- 1.5690 (trend line joining 1.4957 and 1.5360)
Trend reversal Level- 1.5660 (200 day HMA)
● The pair has taken support around 1.5705 and started to recover from that level .It is currently trading around 1.5780.
● Any break below 1.5690 will take the pair down till 1.5660/1.5600.
● On the higher major resistance is around 1.5850 and break above targets 1.5905/1.6000.
It is good to buyat dips around 1.5750-55 with SL around 1.5690 for theTPof 1.5845/1.5905
RESISTANCELEVELS SUPPORT LEVELS
R1- 1.5850 S1-1.5690
R2-1.5905 S2-1.5660
R3-1.6000 S3- 1.5600

11. ©EconoTimes 2016. All rights reserved. EconoTimes content
received through this service is the intellectual property of
EconoTimes or its third party suppliers. Republication or redis-
tribution of content provided by EconoTimes is expressly pro-
hibited without the prior written consent of EconoTimes except
where permitted by the terms of the relevant EconoTimes ser-
vice agreement. Neither The EconoTimes nor its third party
suppliers shall be liable for any errors, omissions or delays in
content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
For questions or comments reach us at
info@econotimes.com
For more information about our products visit
www.econotimes.com