Key Concepts in Climate Change
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Presented at The Climate Integration Workshop on 24 June at the Begnas Resort, Pokhara, Nepal to the set context for the 4 day workshop, where participants, representing diverse actors in development from government ministries to local and international organizations and farming communities, collaborated in understanding and sharing perspectives on climate change vulnerability and adaptation and its linkages to poverty reduction in the Nepali context.
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Key Concepts in Climate Change
- 1. Key Concepts in Climate Change Climate Integration Workshop 24 June 2010, Begnas Resort 1 SajalSthapit, EcoAgriculture Partners/LI-BIRD
- 2. Presentation Outline Global Carbon Cycle GHG Emissions by Sector and Region Meet the GHGs The Hockey Stick – Why Adapt? Why Mitigate? Adaptation: Opportunities for Mitigation 2
- 3. Global Carbon Cycle 3 Scherr and Sthapit 2009
- 4. GHG Emissions by Sector 4 GHG emissions by sector in 2005 (CAIT ver. 7.0, WRI 2009)
- 5. Meet the GHGs 5 Sources World GHG emissions in 2005 (CAIT ver. 7.0, WRI 2009)
- 6. GHG Emissions by Year 6
- 7. The Hockey Stick – Why Adapt? 7
- 8. Why Mitigate? Tipping points Arctic summer ice Permafrost 8
- 9. Adaptation: Opportunities for Mitigation… 9
- 10. Adaptation: Opportunities for Mitigation 10
- 11. Thank you 11 www.libird.org www.ecoagriculture.org
Notas do Editor
- This figure shows volume of carbon that moves between the 3 sinks of carbon: atmosphere, land and oceans in a year. Key points is that a lot of carbon moves from one sink to another during the course of a year. Annual anthropogenic GHG emission is about 50 billion tons of CO2eq, which is much lower than how much carbon is exchanged naturally. The atmosphere and ocean exchange 330, vegetation shares about 220. but these movements are bi-directional and in dynamic equilibrium. Anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel burning, land use change are unidirectional and increase the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere.
- Total World Emissions in 2005 = 43.2 billion tons CO2e or BtCO2eTotal South America Emissions in 2005 = 4.4 BtCO2e or ~10% of World emissionsTotal Central America Emissions in 2005 = 0.9 BtCO2e and 66% of emissions is from energy sector. Agriculture responsible for 8% and land use change and forestryIn Latin America, agriculture is the direct cause for 66% of forest area change (FAO’s State of the World’s Forests 2009)
- CO2 is still the gas most responsible for climate change over a 100 year period.Most of the global CO2 emissions comes from energy consumption. Agricultural energy use was only 1.4% of the annual GHG emissions in 2005. Land use change is a significant emitter of CO2 after energy use.Methane (CH4) comes from enteric fermentation in ruminant livestock (belching and flatulence), from manure, flooded rice cultivation as well as landfills, waste water and other wastes.Nitrous oxide (N2O) comes primarily from agricultural soils due to fertilization with some contribution from waste and burning in agriculture and other sectors.
- This is how carbon emissions have been rising since the beginning of the 20th century. Methane and Nitrous Oxide, the other important GHGs follow a very similar trajectory in increase.
- If we look in the last 1000 years, the average global temperatures have risen starkly in the last century. Of course there is a lot of variance in the estimation of temperatures before the 20th century as you can see in the other studies in the right. But the basic conclusion is the same, temperature is rising and it is going to rise. These changes will have lasting impacts on the planet. Even if we stop all emissions today, the temperature will continue to rise for many decades or even century and then stabilize. Lobell et al 2008 finds that South Asia and Africa will face severe pressure on food security. So adaptation is something we need to do, where we like it or not. And spontaneous adaptation in response to climate change is already happening. Farmers maintaining more diversity or growing a rice variety that they had stopped using previously. Or apple farmers growing apples at a higher altitude than before. But what we also need is planned adaptation that takes scientific predictions as well as local needs and realities into account.
- If climate change is already happening and is going to continue, they why should be we mitigate? Why not apply all efforts into adaptation?Because of tipping points that will cause positive feedbacks. Arctic summer ice is receding. Reduces the planets albedo. White room is brighter because it reflects more light. Same here.Permafrost, soil that is frozen for more than 2-3 years continuously. Under these permafrosts are vegetation locked in time. When they melt, they will decay and release lots of CO2 and CH4.
- Luckily, especially for a country like Nepal that is based on smallholder agriculture, adaptation itself provides opportunities for mitigation and vice versa.What do we do for adaptation of farming systems? Tree crops, integrated hedge rows, agroforestry. All these practices sequester carbon. We retain forests and grasses to reduce erosion and protect watersheds. This also mitigates climate change. Degraded lands are restored for livelihood options. This also mitigates climate change.Protect natural habitats like forests and grasslandsEnrich soil carbonComposting, Residue management, Reduced tillageIncrease living biomassPerennial grains for livestock, Agroforestry and tree-cropsReduce fossil energy useReducing fertilizer use and mechanization, Reduce land use change incurred through irrigation, road construction, etc.Improve livestock systemsManure management and storage – opportunities for bio-energy and fertilization, Better feedsRestore degraded watersheds and rangelandsIt is important to note that there is not no size fits all solutions to climate change, especially in the land use and agriculture sector, where practices are diverse and specialized to particular crop, region or culture. These general principles are to help as a guide to develop integrated solutions that make sense for a given context.One approach is to identify what are the major sources of emissions in a sub-sector and address these low-hanging fruits first to achieve a big impact at usually a lower cost.
- Mitigation opportunities are in Nepal also.On the way to this workshop, you must have noticed what used to be a forested hill being flattened by bulldozers (left photo). In every hectare of that hill, the soil and vegetation was storing between 500-1000 tons of CO2eq.Major industries in Nepal are Cement and Steel, both big emitters of GHGs. WBSCD has a guideline for Cement industries. IADB is also working on a similar guideline. So there are experiences to follow.Instead of taking the stance of our neighbor India, we should continue our adaptation incorporating mitigation and through policy and international dialogue to get recognition and credit for the mitigation we are going to do during our sustainable development (right photo).