This document discusses tools and programs from South Nation Conservation to help assess and reduce risks from climate change for agriculture. It describes a two-phase pilot project to develop a 14-day forecasting model to predict floods, droughts, soil moisture levels and other variables. Phase 1 involved improved monitoring stations and a hydrological model. Phase 2 will focus on creating a farmers' tool with forecasts to help boost agricultural productivity. The document also outlines South Nation Conservation's flood warning programs and efforts to support land stewardship through grants and advisory services.

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Tools to assess and
reduce risk of
changing climate
on agricultural and
rural infrastructure
Tools to assess and
reduce risk of changing
climate on agricultural
and rural infrastructure
Eastern Ontario Crop Conference
February 12, 2018

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• Introduction: South Nation Conservation
• Flood Forecasting & Warning and Low Water Response Programs
• Pilot project Year 1: Predicting floods and droughts for the South
Nation River Watershed
• Pilot project Year 2: Water predictions for agricultural practices
• SNC Programs Supporting Crop Management
Outline

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Introduction: South
Nation Conservation

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Conservation Authorities

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Where we started…
The Conservation Authorities Act, 1946
Principles:
Locally based • Cost-sharing • Watershed jurisdiction

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• 4,384 km2 jurisdiction
• 16 municipalities
• Population: ~200,000
• ~60% agricultural land use
Our Bio

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Flood Forecasting & Warning and
Low Water Response Programs

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Challenge: Managing the Extremes
Crysler weir - April
Crysler weir - July

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What is OLWR?
• Advanced warning of
reduced water
availability
• Local stakeholder
decision making
• MNRF program
Ontario Low Water Response Program
Crysler Dyke – August 5, 2016
Danielle MacKinnon, Engineering Assistant

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SNC Water Response Team Role
• Identify water needs and
drought severity
• Implement drought
management tools
• Can declare a level I, II
and III drought condition
Water Response Team Meeting – July, 2016
Danielle MacKinnon, Engineering Assistant

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• Precipitation
• Stream flows
• Groundwater
Low Water Indicators
Danielle MacKinnon, Engineering Assistant

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Eastern Ontario Current Conditions
Danielle MacKinnon, Engineering Assistant

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• Reduced land availability
• Increase in operation fees
• Shortage for livestock
Low Water Effect on Agriculture

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Impacts to Agriculture from droughts
Glengarry News, August 17, 2016
Morrisburg Leader, August 17, 2016

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- Component of the flood management program in Ontario
- MNRF delegated responsibilities to CAs
- CAs are responsible for monitoring water levels and conducting the
flood forecasting and waning program at local level
Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

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Flood Prone Areas
Fournier, 1938

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• To provide advance notice of
flood conditions to member
municipalities and the public.
• To provide on-going updates
of flood forecasts and
watershed conditions during
a flood event.
Chesterville Dam, April 2014
SNC Roles & Responsibilities

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Impacts to Agriculture from Flood

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SNC Monitoring Network
Stream gauges
Snow survey
Precipitation
gauges
Ice survey

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Monitoring Network
Payne River (Berwick) Stream Gauge
Ottawa Experimental Farm, EC climate station
Michael Jones, Engineering Assistant

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Resources Currently Available for Farmers

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Resources Currently Available for Farmers

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• Precipitation Data
Volunteer Network
• CocoRahs
• SNC will supply free rain
gauges
Valuable Information Farmers can Provide

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Pilot project Year 1: Predicting
floods and droughts for the
South Nation River Watershed

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Project
• Real-time forecasting model that will be able to predict soil
moisture, ground water levels, surface water levels and
evaporation 14 days into the future.
• The 14 day forecast will be accessed through an online cloud
based portal
Partners
• South Nation Conservation Authority (SNC)
• Aquanty
• ISM/IBM
Agri-Risk Project – Phase I

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• 10 existing real-time stream
flow gauges
• 11 upgraded monitoring
stations to real-time
– Temperature
– Rain and snow equivalent
– Groundwater levels
– Soil moisture
• All water management
database
Improved Field Data
Installation of new real-time monitoring
equipment, Winchester site

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HydroGeoSphere Model
• Class leading 3D hydrologic
modelling software
• Simulation of the entire terrestrial
water cycle
• 100’s of peer reviewed papers
• Developed and supported by
Aquanty

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IBM
14 day weather
forecast
ISM
Online cloud based
portal
Weather Forecast/Online Portal

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Hydrogeosphere
Model
Real-time data
14 day weather
forecast
Online Portal
14 day prediction
soil moisture
ground water levels
surface Water Levels
evapotranspiration
How the Model Works

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Dashboards

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Pilot project Year 2: Water
predictions for agricultural
practices

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• Phase I completed March 31,
2018
• Phase II: water predictions
for agricultural practices
• Farmers Tool: forecast to help
boosting farm productivity
Proposed Phase II
ronda please add
photo

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What do we have?
Farmers Tool
Temperature
Precipitation
Soil
Moisture
Snow Depth
Snow Water
Equivalent
Streams
conditions

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How could it be use?
• Which field to plant first
• Preventive crop disease treatment applications
• Fertilizer applications
• Structures operations
• Manure spreading
• Irrigation
• Life stock watering
Farmers Tool Benefits

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What do we need?
•Your input: Survey
•Finalize the idea
•Prepare a proposal
•Funding: AgriRisk
Farmers Tool

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SNC Programs Supporting
Crop Management

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Clean Water
• Cover crops
• Forest and wetland managements plans
• Tree planting
• and More..
Ottawa Rural Clean Water Grant
• Cover crops
• Forest and wetland managements plans
• Tree planting
SNC programs that support crop management
Manure storage application – before photo

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$2.3 million in grants to landowners to protect water quality
Since 1993…

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• Tree planting
• Woodlot advisory
• Clean Water Program
Landowner Stewardship

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• 11,000+ acres of natural
spaces, including:
– 15 Conservation Areas
– 33 km of trail
• Passive and active
recreation
Public natural spaces

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Our Local Environment, We’re in it Together.
www.nation.on.ca