Chris Rapley talks about climate change, visualisation and story-telling. Prof. Christopher Graham Rapley (known as Chris Rapley) CBE (born 9 April 1947)[1] is a British scientist. He was Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme IGBP from 1994 to 1998, and Director of the British Antarctic Survey from 1998 to 2007. He was appointed Director of the Science Museum in 2007, stepping down in 2010. In 2008 he was awarded the Edinburgh Science Medal – “For professional achievements judged to have made a significant contribution to the understanding and well-being of humanity”

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Chris Rapley
Visualising Climate Change
!
It’s All in the Mind

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Not The Higgs

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Anxiety, Fear, Loss, Grief, Guilt, Helplessness

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IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers

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There’s a Limit
How can we stop? Who gets what?

6. A Personal Journey

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Jodrell Bank 1970

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Cassini Titan Radar 1994

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Science Museum 2007

10. ?
Conclude
or
Believe
?

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atmosphere 2010

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Primary Instrument
Mk1 Brain

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Ken Robinson - TED talk on creativity

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Automatic
Deliberative

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System 1 (Automatic)
Intuitive - autonomous and effortless. Outside conscious
awareness and does not require controlled attention.
Generates fast, automatic responses. Wellspring for
spontaneous creative thoughts and ideas
System 2 (Deliberative)
Reflective reasoning - conscious, deliberative, effortful.
Requires controlled attention. Flexible and can be applied to
different problem domains. Underlies capacity for abstract
thinking, mental simulation and introspection

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System 1

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Keeping You Alive
Avoiding Disadvantage
Seeking Advantage

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“Meaning in Context”

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Perception
• Optic nerve axons equivalent to 1 Megapixel camera!
• Rapidly scan ‘searchlight’ to build up visual scene
~80% of which is constructed in brain

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Beau Lotto

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Beau Lotto

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Visual Processors!
- Automatic !
- Always on!
- In the hidden part!
- Err on the side of false positives!

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T e mind a tom tic lly extra ts t e ost
li ely mean g fr m a sent ce wi h miss n
l tt rs

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A System for Jumping to
Conclusions

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Heider and Simmel 1946

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What Did We See?!
- Agency!
- Intentions & Motivations!
- Emotions!
- Character Traits

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Social Evaluation and
Narrative Processors!
- Automatic!
- Always on!
- In the hidden part!
- Snap judgements!
- Stereotypes!

36. Climate TO PROSPERClimate TO PROSPER
Hidden Contributions to A
Thought
mental sensations
(perceptions and cognitive
feelings)
thoughts
actions
individual genetic factors
evolutionary history / species-
level biological factors
memories and experiences
emotions and mood
pressures from the social
environment
Adapted from Burton,”A Skeptic’s Guide to the Mind” 2013
physical sensations
influences from cultural
heritage

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Massive Committee

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Automatic Associations
Feelings steer What we Think
Determine What we Feel
drive need to formulate
meaning even if there is none

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Capable of Believing Almost
Anything

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Divergent Beliefs
Cycle of Action and Self-Justification

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Pre-existing hidden associations tip us
down one side of the triangle
Step by step we consolidate our
position as we seek to eliminate
Dissonance - To feel right not wrong
in doing so we become increasingly
practiced and resolute
Thought becomes Belief / Conviction

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To account for those who
differ we assume they are ...
- Ill-informed / Misled
- Incapable / Crazy
- Self-interested / Evil

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Another Possibility
As Convinced and Sincere as
we are

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Powerful Influences
• Care - Harm!
• Liberty - Oppression!
• Fairness - Cheating!
• Loyalty - Betrayal!
• Authority - Subversion!
• Sanctity - Degradation
(Joanathan Haidt - Moral Foundations Theory)

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Threat
Life Support
Reducing Harm
Collective Action
Nature
Hoax
Personal Freedom
Regulation
State Interference
Individuality

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We Care Very Much What
Others Think of Us
We Make Sense Of The World
Through the Lenses Of Those
With Whom We Identify And
Whose Esteem We Seek

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How do minds change?

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More Facts Don’t Work

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• Assuming others have pieces of the
answer!
• Collaborative!
• About finding common ground!
• Listening to understand!
• Exploring assumptions!
• Discovering new possibilities!
• Seeking constructive progress
Debate Dialogue
Mode of Engagement
• Assuming there is one right answer!
• Combative!
• About winning!
• Listening for flaws!
• Defending assumptions!
• Pursuing your outcome!
• Asymmetries of engagement!
• Entertainment× ✓

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Telling Stories
Universal Structure

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Message In the Waves
BBC

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Cars
CPSL

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3 minutes

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Welcome to the Anthropocene
IGBP

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We Can Shape Our Future
!
You and I are Part of This
Story