1. Modelling the Impacts of Electric Vehicles
on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
EPA Transport Seminar
13th October 2011
Dr. Aoife Foley & Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir
Energy Policy and Modelling Team,
Environmental Research Institute,
University College Cork

2. Overview
• Background
• International Roadmap
• EU Roadmap
• Ireland Roadmap
• EV Technologies & Infrastructure
• International Standardisation
• Manufacturers/Government Roadmaps
• EV Charging Profiles
• Modelling (EV Car Stock, WASP-IV & PLEXOS)
• Conclusions
• Further activities/Next Steps
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3. Background
Transport, Energy & CO2 – Moving Towards Sustainability, OECD/IEA (2009)
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4. International Roadmap
Transport, Energy & CO2 – Moving Towards Sustainability, OECD/IEA (2009)
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5. International Roadmap
International Council on Clean Transportation, 2009
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6. International Roadmap
Energy Technologies Perspective, OECD/IEA (2010)
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7. EU & National Roadmap
• Initially Directive 2009/28/EC ~ 10% transport energy
from other renewable sources not just biofuels
• National Target ~ Ireland 10% EVs by 2020
• More recently the EU White Paper on Transport
• Wait & see for impacts on National Policy
• Focus of this research ~ purely EVs
• Irrespective transport accounts for:
– 41.4% overall energy demand
– 35.2% CO2 emissions
– 3.2% growth annually in transport energy demand*
* = Howley, M., Dennehy, E., Ó Gallachóir, B., 2010, Energy in Ireland 1990 – 2009, 2010 Report. SEAI, 2010.
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8. EU & National Roadmap
Directives & policies applicable to the transport sector
in 2020 include:
– 20% reduction in emissions from the non-
emissions trading sector
– 10% of transport energy from renewable energy
sources
– Reduction in emission rates from passenger
vehicles to an average of 95g CO2/km
– National target 10% of fleet powered by electricity
by 2020
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9. EV Technologies & Infrastructure
Two main EV types considered:
– Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
– Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) ~ (Series/Parallel)
Power Power
BEV Powertrain Series
- Electrical energy only - Single source energy to wheel
- A motor Parallel
- A battery pack - Two parallel paths of energy to wheel
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10. EV Technologies & Infrastructure
ESB ecar, 2011
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11. International Standardisation
‘tsunami of codes and standards’ ~
Steven Rosenstock, Edison Electric Institute at the IEEE P1809 (now
2020.1) Kickoff Meeting on EVs in February 2010
– Society for Automobile Engineers (SAE)
– American National Standards Institute (ANSI)
– Deutsches Institut für Normung e. V. (DIN)
– International Standards Organisation (ISO)
– International Electromechanical Commission (IEC)
– Japan EV Association Standards (JEVS)
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12. International Standardisation
• IEEE P2020.1 Guide for Electric-Sourced
Transportation Infrastructure due end 2011
• US ANSI workshop April 2011 ~ USDOE & INL
• EU M/468 ~ CEN/CENELEC Standardization Report
• Japan ~ CHAdeMO
• China
• Korea
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13. Manufacturers/Government
Roadmaps
Country Targets
Austria 2020: 100,000 EVs deployed
Australia 2012: first cars on road, 2018: mass deployment, 2050: up to 65% of car stock
Canada 2018: 500,000 EVs deployed
China 2011: 500,000 annual production of EVs
Denmark 2020:200,000 EVs
France 2020: 2,000,000 EVs
Germany 2020: 1,000,000 EVs deployed
Ireland 2020: 10% EV market share
Israel 2011: 40,000 EVs, 2012: 40,000 to 100,000 EVs annually
Japan 2020: 50% market share of next generation vehicles
New Zealand 2020: 5% market share, 2040: 60% market share
Spain 2014: 1,000,000 EVs deployed
Sweden 2020: 600,000 EVs deployed
United Kingdom No target figures, but policy to support EVs
United States of America 2015: 1,000,000 PHEV stock
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14. Manufacturers/Government
Roadmaps
Car manufacturer Battery manufacturer Production Target
BYD Auto BYD Group 2015: 100,000
Fiat-Chrysler A123 Systems No date, no numbers
Ford Johnston Controls-Saft 5,000 per annum
GM LG Chem 2011: 10,000 & 2012: 60,000
Hyundai LG Chem, SK Energy and SB Limotive 2018: 500,000
Mercedes-Benz Continental and Johnston Controls-Saft No date, no numbers
Mitsubishi GS Yuasa Corp. 2010: 5,000, 2011: 15,000
Nissan AESC 2010: 50,000, 2012: 100,000
REVA Indocel Technologies No date, no numbers
Renault AESC By 2010 150,000/annum
Subaru AESC 2010: 100
Tata Electrovaya No date, no numbers
Toyota Panasonic No date, no numbers
Volkswagen Volkswagen and Toshiba Corp. 2011: 500
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15. Charging Portfolios
• Peak (Uncontrolled/unconstrained)
• Off – peak (Controlled/delayed)
• Opportunistic (Stochastic/continous)*
• Wind- follow (Reneweble energy charging signal)
* Markal et al (2009) over a 16 week period trial established that Evs parked
90% and plugged in 60% of the time!
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16. EV Car Stock
Additional CO2 emissions in the Electricity Sector (High, Medium &
Low EV Scenarios), 2010 to 2025
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17. WASP-IV
• Traditional Long Term Generation Model
• WASP IV ~ IAEA (free for academic users)
• 3 optimisation techniques ~ optimal portfolio mix
• Probabilistic estimation ~ determine system production
costs, ENS costs & reliability
• Linear programming ~ optimal portfolio mix, satisfy
exogenous constraints on environmental emissions, fuel
availability & electricity generation by some plants
• Dynamic programming (DP) ~ alternative expansion plans
• Heat rates, CAPEX, OPEX, Start-up Costs, Depreciation,
Fuel prices, Ramp Rates, FOR, Plant Efficiencies etc
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18. WASP-IV
Scenario Approach
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19. WASP-IV
Total Energy with & without PHEV Charging
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20. WASP-IV
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21. PLEXOS
PLEXOS for Power Systems
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22. PLEXOS
• Market based power system model
• Mathematical optimisation:
Linear Programming (LP)
Mixed Integer Programming (MIP)
Stochastic Optimisation (SO)
• Free for academic users
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23. PLEXOS
10% Renewable Energy 20% Emissions Target
Wind Variability
Target (%) (%)
OFF PEAK
Low Wind 1.42 0.88
High Wind 1.69 2.23
PEAK
Low Wind 1.42 0.40
High Wind 1.65 1.84
W/FOLLOW*
Low Wind 3.91 1.21
High Wind 4.29 2.13
OPP.
Low Wind 1.65 0.25
High Wind 1.83 1.54
Some VERY Preliminary Results
High & Low = +/- 1.8% sd
* Relates to wind dispatch constraint of 75% (EirGrid &SONI, 2010)
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24. Conclusions
• EV Car Stock
– 1.72% ~ 10% RES-T target by 2020
– 1.4% ~ 20% reduction Non-ETS emissions by 2020/05
• WASP-IV
– 1.68% ~ 10% RES-T target by 2020
– 0.95% ~ 20% reduction Non-ETS emissions by 2020/05
• PLEXOS (MOSEK) ~ preliminary
– SMP €56.27/MWh to €60.57/MWh
– 1.42% to 4.29% ~ 10% RES-T target by 2020
– 0.25% to 2.23 % ~ 20% reduction Non-ETS emissions by
2020/05
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25. Conclusions
• OEM Technology roadmap slower ~ Government
Policy Targets
• All indications off-peak & wind-follow charging MOST
effective
• Peak charging ~ increased operation of peaking plant
• Off-peak charging ~ slightly better operation of the
base load plant than the wind-follow charging ~ base
load cycling
• Wind conditions appears to have serious impacts
• Time of charging is most critical ~ ‘Smart’ controls &
wind forecasting
• Batteries ……
• Generation Portfolio Mix & Weather
• Annual SMP costs ~ approx €140 to €338/a
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26. Further activities/Next Steps
• Run PLEXOS using Xpress rather than
Mosek
• Stochastic Optimisation
• EV Charging (Load) Profiles
• SOX & NOX in PLEXOS
• Weather Impacts (Wet/Cold)
• TIMES (Hannah Daly)
• Well to Wheel Analysis
• Wholesale ~ retail?
• Smart Grid
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27. Thank You
Acknowledgements
– Paul Deane
– Patrick Calnan
– Hannah Daly
– Barry Tyther
– Dr. Paul Leahy
– Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir
– Gemma O’Reilly
– EPA
– Energy Exemplar
– Argonne National Energy Laboratory
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