Chris Cherry presented on the future of ebikes at the Transforming Transformation 2015. Transforming Transportation 2015: Smart Cities for Shared Prosperity is the annual conference co-organized by the World Resources Institute and the World Bank.

1. www.TransformingTransportation.org
Electric powered two-wheelers
(e-bikes): a welcome game-changer?
Chris Cherry, Associate Professor, University of
Tennessee, Knoxville
Presented at Transforming Transportation 2015

2. Electric powered two-wheelers (e-bikes): a
welcome game-changer?
Chris Cherry
Associate Professor – Civil and Environmental Engineering
Transportation Engineering and Science Program
University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Note: most work presented here sponsored by NSF CAREER Award CBET –1055282 and supported by
current and former students Shuguang Ji, Andrew Campbell, Luke Jones, Ziwen Ling, and Hongtai Yang

3. China Market
 Simply put: e-bikes are fastest and largest
growth of alt-fuel in history of motorization

4. China Market
 Simply put again: e-bikes are the most energy
(and CO2) efficient motorized mode that exists
10x
4x
2x

5. Benefits compared to what?
 China: e-bike tend to displace transit…and cars
Previous e‐bike studies and potential mode shift.

6. Benefits compared to what?
 Kunming: bicycles dimming, 1 in 4 e-bikes displace car-based trip
E-bike Rider Previous
Mode
E-bike Rider Current
Best Alternative

7. E-bike riders as future car owners
 Kunming: ~40% of e-bike riders have car in household, now more
than bicycles and relatively large fraction plan to purchase
In Kunming: Household vehicle ownership and purchase plans.

8. E-bike riders as future car owners
 Is Kunming representative?
 We conducted a national telephone survey and found similar
results: HH car ownership (19-40%), purchase plans (8-30%).
 Hierarchical logit for car purchase: HH variables matter most,
some city/regional-level data.

9. So what’s not to love?
 E-bikes have an image problem

10. E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable?

11. E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable?
 Recent studies on e-bikes find:
– e-bike riders behave poorly
– e-bike fatalities up a little less than e-bike growth

12. What about the batteries?
Battery production loss rates
hover around 20-30% of the
battery weight…
Multiplied by tens of millions of
batteries a year

13. What about the batteries?

14. Bikesharing as externality control

15. Bikesharing as externality control
 Bikeshare/Scooter share
– Beijing stated preference mode switch model of e-
bike sharing vs. bicycle sharing
– E-bike: bad air days, hot days, longer trips, compete
with transit
– E-bikes pull from “sheltered” modes
– Young- and middle-aged male respondents more
likely to use e-bikes and bikeshare in general

16. Key findings from UTK study
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Walk Personal
Bike
Bus Car No Trip
PercentTrips
Mode Displaced by UTK E-bike Sharing System
E-Bike
Bike
 E-bike trip lengths longer
 More utility errand-type
trips
 More comfortable
 People used regular
bicycles more than we
expected (both free). 30%
of bicycle choosers disliked
e-bike (43% of women)
1. Langford, B. C., Cherry, C., Yoon, T., Worley, S. & Smith, D.
North America's First E-Bikeshare. Transportation Research
Record 2387, 120–128 (2014).
2. Ji, S., Cherry, C. R., Han, L. D. & Jordan, D. A. Electric bike
sharing: simulation of user demand and system availability.
Journal of Cleaner Production 1–8 (2013).

17. 5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
Low Gas
Prices
High Gas
Prices
Ahmedabad Market Potential Controlling for
Price and Technology
Cherry, C. & Jones, L. Electric Two-Wheelers in India and Viet Nam: Market Analysis and Environmental Impacts.
Asian Development Bank 1–54 (2010).
Penetrating Motorcycle Markets

18. Penetrating Motorcycle Markets
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Low Gas
Prices &
No Tax
Incentive
High Gas
Prices &
No Tax
Incentive
Low Gas
Prices &
10% Tax
Incentive
High Gas
Prices &
10% Tax
Incentive
Hanoi Market Potential Controlling for
Price, Technology, and Regulation
Jones, L. R., Cherry, C. R., Vu, T. A. & Nguyen, Q. N. The effect of incentives and technology on the adoption of
electric motorcycles: A stated choice experiment in Vietnam. Transportation Research Part A 57, 1–11 (2013).

19.  In China, without a doubt
 In USA, about 200k sold last year
 In Europe, about two million sold
 At this year’s Interbike, Gary Fisher called e-
bikes the “next big thing” for the bicycle
industry
Are e-bikes a game changer?

20. Conclude
 E-bike riders are vulnerable but the industry
can be its own worst enemy (weight and speed)
 E-bikes should perform like bicycles in places
where bicycles can compete
 E-scooters need push/pull to compete in
established motorcycle markets
 Bikesharing has big potential to support
sustainable e-bike deployment

21. Thanks
Christopher Cherry
Associate Professor
Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Tennessee-Knoxville
321 JD Tickle Building
Knoxville, TN 37996-2313
phone: 865-974-7710
mobile: 865-684-8106
email: cherry@utk.edu
http://web.utk.edu/~cherry
http://www.cycleushare.com
http://tesp.engr.utk.edu/lever.php