Changing Course:Building a Low Carbon Transport Sector in Asia

2. Changing Course: Building a Low Carbon Transport Sector in Asia Transforming Transportation January 15, 2010 Washington DC, USA Jamie Leather Asian Development Bank

3. THE PROBLEM

4. Vehicle growth projections PRC

5. Motorization Index PRC

6. Transport Activity Source: IEA, draft 2009

7. Transport Sector CO 2 emissions 2006 5,465 mil tons 2030 7,555 mil tons Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 Note: Total emissions excludes international marine bunkers and international aviation 54% of increase in Asia 38% increase Worldwide

8. Transport Sector CO 2 emissions 2006 5,465 mil tons 2030 7,555 mil tons Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 Note: Total emissions excludes international marine bunkers and international aviation

10. THE SOLUTIONS

11. A global 50% CO2 cut by 2050 IEA ETP 2008: Where reductions come from

12.

13. A Sustainable Transport Path Avoid the need to travel Shift to more efficient transport modes Improve fuel and vehicle technologies Solutions for Sustainable Transport Avoid Shift Improve

14. Same Principles but Different Requirements Principles Developed Countries Developing Countries Avoid Reduce travel through traffic demand management (TDM) Avoid unnecessary generation of travel through land use planning, integrated land use and traffic management Shift Shift from private vehicles to non-motorized transport and public transport Shift investment focus to non-motorized transport, public transport and long-distance rail or water transport Improve Clean up existing vehicles and fuels Ensure that future vehicles are as clean as possible and improve attractiveness of public transport

15. Transport Co-Benefits Pollution CO 2 Congestion Improve - reduce emissions per kilometer Technology/ vehicle change +++ ++ ? Behavioral change (Fleet mng, driver training) ++ + + Fuel-switch (CNG, LPG, biofuels) ++ ? ? Shift - reduce emissions per unit transported Passenger transport: Mode switch +++ ++ +++ Usage of larger units + + ++ Improved occupation rates ++ ++ ++ Freight transport ++ ++ ++ Avoid - reduce number of trips Land-use – Behavioral change +++ +++ ++ TDM/TOD ++ +++ ++

16.

17.

Notas do Editor

Presentation is based on discussions in Bellagio and feedback to a first draft proposal for the establishment of the Partnership The ideas outlined in this proposal are not final and subject to further discussion
This is clearly unsustainable. In fact, in a CO2 constrained world, we will need to achieve massive reductions in CO2 emissions to 2050. In ETP’s “BLUE” scenario, we identify ways to achieve a 50% reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions to 2050 from across different sectors. Though transport is perhaps the most difficult sector to address, we find it must provide deep cuts like other sectors. Without transport cuts, the best we can do is keep CO2 roughly constant into the future. Not good enough. In BLUE, transport achieves a 30% reduction in CO2 in 2050 compared to its 2005 levels ( a 70% reduction compared to 2050).

Changing Course:Building a Low Carbon Transport Sector in Asia

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