Seismic Upgrades: Return on Investment - Franz Rad
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2013 EERI Annual Meeting Session: Retrofit and Rehabilitation of Vulnerable Buildings
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Seismic Upgrades: Return on Investment - Franz Rad
- 1. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute National Meeting 2013 Session on Retrofit and Rehabilitation of Vulnerable Buildings Speaker Presentation title Franz Rad Seismic Upgrades: Return on Investment David Johnston Low Risk Does Not Equal No Risk Peter May Political and Policy Perspectives: Vulnerable Buildings Michael Wright Seismic Upgrade of Melrose Triangle Building/Melrose Market, Seattle Jim Graham Adaptive Reuse of Existing Buildings Richard Conlin Unreinforced Masonry Buildings: Legislative Action on Seismic Upgrades EERI National Meeting 2013
- 2. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute National Meeting 2013 Seismic Upgrades: Return on Investment By: FRANZ N. RAD, PhD, PE, SE, FASCE, FACI Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering Arthur M. James Professor of Structural Engineering Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering Portland State University EERI National Meeting 2013
- 3. Seismic Hazard Evaluation and Research (SHEAR) Rapid Visual Survey Seismic Hazard Evaluation Modeling Seismic Retrofit: ROI HAZUS Modeling for Oregon Structural Component Behavior Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Portland State University EERI National Meeting 2013
- 4. Net Benefits= Losses Avoided - Cost Cost = Cost of Seismic Upgrades EERI National Meeting 2013
- 5. Seismic Hazard Evaluation Modeling Study of potential earthquake damage to buildings and other infrastructure systems EERI National Meeting 2013
- 6. Seismic Hazard Evaluation for Portland • ATC-21 • Seismic Hazard Evaluation Modeling Improving Building Performance by Retrofit • Retrofitting Structures, Costs and Benefits EERI National Meeting 2013
- 7. ATC-21 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 8. EERI National Meeting 2013
- 9. Basis of the “Score” • Damage Factor = Dollar Loss/ Replacement Value • Structural Score = - log [ Pr (DF >= 60%)] EERI National Meeting 2013
- 10. ATC-21 Form EERI National Meeting 2013
- 11. EERI National Meeting 2013
- 12. Application of the model to Portland EERI National Meeting 2013
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- 17. PSU EERI National Meeting 2013
- 18. PSU EERI National Meeting 2013
- 19. PSU EERI National Meeting 2013
- 20. Seismic Design Requirements for Portland 110 Percent of Today's Code 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Year EERI
- 21. Results of the Survey EERI National Meeting 2013
- 22. Buildings in the Portland metro region inventory: •Non-residential and multi- family residential buildings •No single family residences and duplexes •Building inventory data were collected during the years 1993-1997 •This project was funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through the Metro regional government •Buildings were surveyed Seismic Vulnerability using ATC-21 sidewalk of Buildings in the survey method EERI National Meeting 2013 Portland State University Portland Metropolitan Area Seismic Hazard Modeling Group
- 23. URMs in Portland area EERI National Meeting 2013
- 24. Results of Evaluation for Portland Quadrangle •Portland quadrangle •7,690 commercial buildings •ATC 21-type analysis •Evaluate Seismic Vulnerability EERI National Meeting 2013
- 25. USGS 7.5’ Portland Quad EERI National Meeting 2013
- 26. No. of Bldgs, Area, Avg Score by Bldg Type USGS 7.5’ Portland Quad Type Bldgs Area Score Million SF 1 W Wood W 3019 28.7 5.55 2 S1 Steel MRF MRF 44 8.8 1.55 3 S2 Steel BR BR 26 1.1 2.16 4 S3 Steel LM LM 309 3.8 4.62 5 S4 Steel + Conc SW RCSW 82 11.2 2.59 6 C1 Conc Mom Res Frame MRF 159 12.7 1.35 7 C2 Conc SW SW 1656 32.4 2.46 8 C3/S5 Conc/Steel + URM infill URM INF 63 1.6 0.61 9 PC1 Conc Tilt-up TU 515 14.8 2.59 10 PC2 Conc Precast Frame PC2 39 3.5 0.85 11 RM Reinf Masonry RM 916 8 2.48 12 URM Unreinf Masonry URM 862 15.5 0.66 TOTAL 7690 142.1 3.52 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 27. Range of People and No. of Bldgs by Occupancy Type Occupancy No of Range of People Type Bldgs Low Medium Thousands Thousands Res 1859 43 108 Com 2229 41 97 Office 1049 56 131 Indust 1899 26 61 Publ Assem 281 51 95 School 156 27 70 Govt bldg 150 11 25 Emerg Serv 36 5 11 Historic 31 11 18 TOTAL 7690 271 616 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 28. Summary of Losses, Portland Quad, PGA=0.20g Bldg Total Type Loss of Life 1 W Wood W 2 2 S1 Steel MRF MRF 245 3 S2 Steel BR BR 0 4 S3 Steel LM LM 0 5 S4 Steel + Conc SW RCSW 2 6 C1 Conc Mom Res Frame MRF 2956 7 C2 Conc SW SW 274 8 C3/S5 Conc/Steel + URM infill URM INF 1937 9 PC1 Conc Tilt-up TU 282 10 PC2 Conc Precast Frame PC2 17 11 RM Reinf Masonry RM 282 12 URM Unreinf Masonry URM 6998 TOTAL 12995 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 29. Comparison of “Model” to Kobe, 1995 Earthquake EERI National Meeting 2013
- 30. Retrofit Study •Portland quadrangle •7,690 commercial buildings •ATC 21-type analysis •Study Benefit, Net Benefit, Benefit to Cost Ratio, and ROI EERI National Meeting 2013
- 31. We can identify the weak buildings and decide to retrofit or purge them EERI National Meeting 2013
- 32. Investment Benefit Net Benefit Billions Billions Billions 0 0 0 Retrofit 0.0285714 5 5 0.0428571 7.5 7.5 Prioritization, 0.0857143 10 10 System 0.1142857 12.5 12.4 0.1714286 15 14.2 Efficiency 0.2285714 17.5 17.3 0.3142857 20 19.7 0.4 22.5 22.1 7,690 Commercial 0.5142857 25 24.5 Bldgs 0.7428571 28.8 28 0.9714286 29.2 28.3 4 29.6 25.6 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 33. Retrofit System Efficiency Curves Retrofit 30 Prioritization, System Benefit, Net benefit, $Billions 25 Efficiency 20 7,690 Commercial 15 Bldgs 10 Optimal Retrofit investment is 5 approx=1Billion 0 Net Benefit is 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 approx=28 Billions Retrofit Investment, $Billions EERI National Meeting 2013
- 34. Retrofit System Efficiency Curves Retrofit 30 Prioritization, System Benefit, Net benefit, $Billions 25 Efficiency 20 7,690 Commercial 15 Bldgs 10 Optimal Retrofit Optimal Retrofit investment is 5 approx=1Billion 0 Net Benefit is 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 approx=28 Billions Retrofit Investment, $Billions EERI National Meeting 2013
- 35. Building Types in the Optimal Retrofit Group S1,2,4 steel 22 C1 conc frame 62 C2 conc SW 13 C3/S5 con/steel URM infill 45 PC1 conc Tilt-up 91 PC2 conc precast 1 RM reinf masonry 78 URM unreinf masonry 591 W,S3 wood, steel = conc SW 0 TOTAL 903 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 36. % of Building Types Included in the Optimal Retrofit Group S1,2,4 steel 14.50% C1 conc frame 39.00% C2 conc SW 0.80% C3/S5 con/steel URM infill 71.40% PC1 conc Tilt-up 17.70% PC2 conc precast 2.60% RM reinf masonry 8.50% URM unreinf masonry 68.65 W,S3 wood, steel + conc SW 0 TOTAL 11.70% EERI National Meeting 2013
- 37. Retrofit System Efficiency Curves Retrofit 30 Prioritization, System Benefit, Net benefit, $Billions 25 Efficiency 20 7,690 Commercial 15 Bldgs 10 Optimal Retrofit Optimal Retrofit investment is 5 approx=1Billion 0 Net Benefit is 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 approx=28 Billions Retrofit Investment, $Billions EERI National Meeting 2013
- 38. Summary Retrofit Costs 0.8 B Benefits 28.8 B Net Benefits 28.8 – 0.8 = 28 B/C Ratio (BCR) 28.8/0.8 = 30 ROI 28/0.8 = 35 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 39. Optimal Retrofit Investment (Round numbers) Retrofit Cost 1B Net Benefit 30 B B/C 30 No of Bldgs Retrofit 1000 Buildg Damage Avoided 0.65 B Lives Saved 12,700 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 40. ATC-21 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 41. ATC-21 What if we ignore all Performance Modification Factors? EERI National Meeting 2013
- 42. Variations in Return on Investment, ROI “Retrofit Efficiency” (Round Numbers) Full Modifiers No Modifiers Lives Lost =13000 Lives Lost =3100 Value of Life = Lives Saved=12,700 Lives Saved = 3000 2.2 M ROI = 30 ROI = 7 Value of Life = Lives Saved=12,700 Lives Saved = 3000 4.4 M ROI = 60 ROI= 15 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 43. Variations in Return on Investment, ROI “Retrofit Efficiency” (Round Numbers) 70 60 Full Modifiers 50 R 40 O "Actual" Effects of Modifiers 30 I 20 10 No Modifiers 0 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Value of Life (M) EERI National Meeting 2013
- 44. Variations in Return on Investment, ROI “Retrofit Efficiency” (Round Numbers) 70 60 Full Modifiers 50 R 40 O "Actual" Effects of Modifiers 30 I 20 10 No Modifiers 0 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Value of Life (M) EERI National Meeting 2013
- 45. EERI National Meeting 2013
- 46. EERI National Meeting 2013
- 47. Looking for Weapons of Mass Destruction? We’ve Got Them! EERI National Meeting 2013
- 48. Let’s Remember • Killer Quakes Don’t Kill! • Killer Buildings Do Kill! • Retrofit and Live! • An Ounce of Prevention is Worth a Pound of Cure! i.e., ROI = 16 EERI National Meeting 2013
- 49. We Must Prepare for Disasters, Natural or Otherwise! EERI National Meeting 2013
- 50. EERI National Meeting 2013
- 51. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute National Meeting 2013 Session on Retrofit and Rehabilitation of Vulnerable Buildings Speaker Presentation title Franz Rad Seismic Upgrades: Return on Investment David Johnston Low Risk Does Not Equal No Risk Peter May Political and Policy Perspectives: Vulnerable Buildings Michael Wright Seismic Upgrade of Melrose Triangle Building/Melrose Market, Seattle Jim Graham Adaptive Reuse of Existing Buildings Richard Conlin Unreinforced Masonry Buildings: Legislative Action on Seismic Upgrades EERI National Meeting 2013