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A P R I L 2 018
European Real Estate Market
European Real Estate Market - April 2018
2Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
The European Union
M AC R O E C O N O M I C
OV E R V I E W
•	 The stronger cyclical momentum in
Europe and the positive unexpected rise
of global trade are supporting the
European Union (EU) economies
transition from recovery to expansion.
•	 EU GDP data reported by the
International Monetary Found (IMF)
have grown, and according to European
Commission (EC), EU economies are
estimated to increase from 2.1 to 2.3%
for this year.
•	 Inflation in the EU reached 1.7% in
2017, and is forecasted to grow in
2018. However, it is expected to slightly
decrease in 2019 (1.8%).
•	 If short-term economic growth exceed
expectations, in the medium-term, high
global asset prices could be vulnerable
to a re-assessment of risks and
fundamentals.
•	 The outcome of Brexit negotiations
remains uncertain and geopolitical
tensions/protectionist polices are main
threats for EU economies.
European Union (28) (Billions U.S. Dollars) European Union (28) (% change)
0.0
5000.0
10000.0
15000.0
20000.0
25000.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014
1.8
2015
2.3
2016
2.0
2017**
2.4
2018**
2.3
2019**
2.0
2020*
1.8
2021*
1.7
2022*
1.7
European Union GDP
U.S. Dollars (Billion) (% change)
* IMF forecast
** EC Winter 2018 forecast
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on IMF European Commission (EC) data
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.5
2022*2021*2020*2019*2018*2017*20162015
2.0
Inflation (average consumer prices, % change)
0.0
0.2
1.7**
1.9**
1.8**
1.9
2.0 2.0
European Union (28) Advanced Economies
* IMF forecast
** EC Winter 2018 forecast
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on IMF European Commission (EC) data
European Real Estate Market - April 2018
3Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
The European Union
R E G I O N A L
C O M P E T I T I V E N E S S
•	 According to the European Commission
(“EC”), regional competitiveness is the
‘ability of a region to offer an attractive
and sustainable environment for firms
and residents to live and work.’
•	 The tool used for measuring and
assessing the competitiveness at
regional level in the EU is the Regional
Competitiveness Index (RCI).
•	 The factors which determine RCI are:
Basic dimension (institution,
macroeconomic stability, infrastructure,
health and basic education), Efficiency
dimension (higher education and
lifelong learning, labour market
efficiency and market size) and
Innovation dimension (technological
readiness, business sophistication and
innovation).
•	 The RCI shows a more polycentric
pattern with strong capital and
metropolitan regions in many parts of
Europe. London and its commuting zone
ranked top in 2016.
•	 Capital regions tend to be the most
competitive region in their Country, but
there are exceptions. In the
Netherlands, the capital region is
ranked second, while in Italy,
Lombardia, a historically highly
productive region, continues to be the
best. Many other German regions
outperform Berlin, which may be due to
its relatively short history as the capital
of a reunited Germany.
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Other Region (min)Other Region (max)Capital Region
EU Region ranking based on RCI 2016 score (EU28=0)
UK
Sweden
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Italy
France
Finland
Spain
Denmark
G
ermany
CzechRepublic
Belgium
Austria
*Equal same rank is assigned to two regions if their score difference (on a 0-100 scale)
is not above 0.1
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on EU Regional Competitiveness Index 2016
Rank* Country Region name Rank* Country Region name
1 United Kingdom
London and regions
covered by its
commuting zone
254 Romania Sud-Muntenia
2 United Kingdom
Berkshire,
Buckinghamshire and
Oxfordshire
255 Romania Sud-Vest Oltenia
3 Netherlands Utrecht 256 Greece Ionia Nisia
4 Sweden Stockholm 257 Greece Dytiki Ellada
5 United Kingdom
Surrey, East and West
Sussex
258 Greece Peloponnisos
6 Denmark Hovedstaden 258 Bulgaria Severozapaden
7 Luxembourg Luxembourg 258 Greece Sterea Ellada
8 France Île de France 261 Greece
Anatoliki Makedonia,
Thraki
9 Germany Oberbayern 262 Romania Sud-Est
10 United Kingdom
Hampshire and Isle of
Wight
262 France Guyane
Top 10 and Bottom 10 EU regions
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on EU Regional Competitiveness Index 2016
European Real Estate Market - April 2018
4Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
The European Union
D I G I TA L E C O N O M Y A N D
S O C I E T Y
E-shopping
•	 In the EU 66% of all age groups internet
users ordered good or services online
•	 In 2016, clothes & sports goods are the
most popular online purchases,
followed by travel/holiday
accommodation, household goods and
tickets for events. Less common were
online purchases of food or groceries
and medicine.
•	 Looking at e-shopping data using
age-users criteria, it comes to light that
clothes & sports are mainly ordered by
“millennials”(aged 16 to 34 years).
Booking travel and holiday
accommodation online are purchased
by shoppers aged 45 to 64 year (57%).
Finally, the age group of 35 to 44 year
old had the highest share of e-shoppers
who bought household goods online
(52%).
E-sales
•	 According to Eurostat, in 2016, ‘20% of
EU businesses reported that they
conducted e-commerce sales (e-sales)
to consumers, other businesses and/or
public authorities; this is a moderate
increase compared with 15 % in 2010’.
The turnover derived by e-sales
amounted to 16% of the total (11% of
EDI-type sales and 5% of web sales).
•	 In the EU, in 2016, web sales to other
business (B2B) were 12% and to
consumers (B2C) were 13%. Of the 5
% of total turnover generated by web
sales, 2 % came from B2C sales and 3
% from B2B sales.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Norway
UnitedKingdom
Sweden
Finland
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Austria
Netherlands
Malta
Hungary
Lithuania
Latvia
Cyprus
Italy
Croatia
France
Spain
Greece
Ireland
Estonia
Germany
Denmark
CzechRepublic
Bulgaria
Belgium
Enterprises’ total turnover
from e-commerce
Enterprises having received orders
via computer mediated networks
Percentage of Enterprises having received orders via computer mediated
networks and related % of turnover from e-commerce (2016)
Average percentage Var % yoy (2017/2016)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Norway
UnitedKingdom
Sweden
Finland
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Poland
Austria
Netherlands
Malta
Hungary
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Cyprus
Croatia
Italy
France
Spain
Greece
Ireland
Estonia
Germany
Denmark
CzechRepublic
Bulgaria
Belgium
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Average percentage of individuals who ordered goods or services,
over the internet, for private use in 2017 and var % yoy
6%
-3%
1%
11%
5%
4%
8%
16%
2%
7%
3%
-28%
-4%
-2%
3%
1%
6%
15%
7%
1%
5%
-4% -2%
3% 2%
7%
2%
7%
Average %
of individuals
var % yoy
(2017/2016)
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on Eurostat
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on Eurostat
European Real Estate Market - April 2018
5Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
European Office Market
I N V E S T M E N T S VO LU M E
•	 In 2017, the volume of investments in
the office sector increased by 5% on an
annual basis.
•	 Office still remains the most attractive
sector for investors, with the 43% of
total investments.
•	 Strong investments were registered in
Spain, Netherland, Italy and Ireland, but
Germany remains the most attractive
country with several deals greater than
10,000 m2.
K E Y D R I V E R S
•	 Management of innovative office space
(smart-working)
•	 Technology will increase the demand in
the main tech district
•	 Lack of supply core asset
•	 Shorter leases
•	 Efficiency, quality and flexibility
VAC A N CY
•	 On half-yearly basis, vacancy rates
remained stable at 7.7%, compared to
2016 which decreased by 0.7% across
European markets.
•	 The greatest compressions were
registered in Prague (-3.7%) and
Barcelona (-3%).
Office Total
Investments (€ billion)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
€ Billion
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
0%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
-400
-200
-300
0
-100
100
200
Amsterdam
Barcelona
Berlin
Birmingham
Brussels
Copenhagen
Dublin
Dusseldorf
Frankfurt
Hamburg
Helsinki(CBD)
Lisbon
London
Luxembourg
Madrid
Milan
Moscow
Munich
Oslo
Paris
Prague
Rome
St.Petersbourg
Stockholm
Vienna
Warsaw
Zurich
Vacancy rate (%) YOY var. (bps)
bps
-60
-300
10
-320
-200
-40
-20
-110
-230
-20
-20
-150
50
-90
-190
70
-210
100
40
-50
-370
-120
-110
0
-30
-250
-10
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
European Real Estate Market - April 2018
6Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
European Office Market
P R I M E R E N T S A N D Y I E L D S
•	 In 2017, average prime rents slightly
increased (+3%) and average prime
yields are under compression, reaching
4.2% on annual basis.
•	 For 2018, this trend of rental growth
and yields compression is expected to
continue.
M A R K E T H I G H L I G H T S :
•	 London: ‘The Brexit effect’ represents a
potential risk for investments, in
particular for those related to relocation.
•	 Milan: Remained the most dynamic
Italian location. In particular CDB and
Centre sub-markets registered an
important take up increase.
•	 Barcelona: In line with the Spanish
economic recovery, the take up of the
CBD increased due to national and
international investments.
•	 Paris: Take up in 2017 increased by 2%
and vacancy rate remained stable. On
the other hand, investments saw an
important decrease compared to the
previous year, mainly due to a lack of
mega-transaction.
•	 Rents in prime cities in Germany rose
again and are expected to grow in 2018
due to the operator in co-working
spaces
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
European average prime office rents and yields
2013 2014 2015 20172016
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
Net prime yields (%) Prime rents (€/sqm/year)
€/sqm/year
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Office market
Prime rent 2016
(€/sqm/year)
Prime rent 2017
(€/sqm/year)
Net prime yield (%)
Vienna
Warsaw
Stockholm
Rome
Prague
Paris
Oslo
Munich
Moscow
Milan
Manchester
Madrid
Luxembourg
London
Lisbon
Helsinki
Hamburg
Glasgow
Frankfurt
Edinburgh
Dusseldorf
Dublin
Copenhagen
Brusselles
Birmingham
Berlin
Barcelona
Amsterdam
€/sqm/year
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
European Real Estate Market - April 2018
7Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
European Office Market
©d-maps.com
500 km
300 mi
Moscow
622
10.3%
Stockholm
645
3.5%
Oslo
451
3.7%
Edinburgh
419
5.4%
Manchester
440
4.9%
London
852
4.1%
Birmingham
426
4.9%
Glasgow
382
5.4%
Dublin
683
4.1%
Lisbon
238
4.6%
Madrid
385
3.5%
Barcelona
252
3.6%
Paris
768
3.2%
Brussels
286
4.4%
Amsterdam
400
3.8%
Dusseldorf
373
3.5%
Frankfurt
400
3.1%
Munich
416
3.5%
Wien
410
3.8%
Zurich
675
2.7%
Milan
520
3.6%
Rome
403
4.1%
Berlin
331
3.4%
Prague
252
4.7%
Warsaw
272
5.3%
Hamburg
368
3.1%
Copenhagen
304
3.8%
Helsinki
336
3.5%
Luxembourg
586
4.3%
Legend:
Prime rents (€/sqm/year)
Prime yields (%)
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various data
European Retail Market
European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018
8Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
I N V E S T M E N T S VO LU M E
•	 In 2017, the volume of investments in
the retail sector increased by 3% over
the prior year.
•	 Retail investment represents 22% of the
European ones.
•	 Investor demand is expected to
experience a strong recovery in 2018.
•	 Investors are looking for core properties
in the emerging markets.
•	 In 2018, private consumption will
increase thanks to the higher consumer
confidence and the tourism growth.
K E Y D R I V E R S
•	 Growth of tourism in prime locations
•	 Population growth
•	 Digital economy
•	 Lack of supply in prime location
VAC A N CY
•	 The strong demand in the main Europe-
an markets led to a compression in
vacancy rates that in 2017 reached
4.7%.
Investments (€ billion)
Retail Total
€ Billion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20172016201520142013
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
High Street yields
High Street rents
Shopping centre yields
Shopping centre rents
European Average prime retail rents and yieldsyields
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
rents
0
50
100
150
200
250
201720162015201420132012
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
European Retail Market
European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018
9Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
P R I M E R E N T S A N D Y I E L D S
•	 In 2017, average prime rents registered
an increase of 1.2% for High Streets
and 1.6% for shopping centers,
respectively.
•	 Average net prime yields slightly
decreased, reaching 4,1% for the High
Street market and 4.9% for shopping
centers
•	 Further yields compression in the main
European markets is expected in 2018.
M A R K E T H I G H L I G H T S
•	 UK: Investments are dominated by the
political uncertainties caused by Brexit.
Nonetheless, London remains one of
the most expensive cities.
•	 Italy: prime rents in the main cities are
growing sustained by tourism. Market is
still dominated by international player.
•	 Germany: Secondary locations are
taking advantage of the lack of supply in
prime areas. Rents remained stable
compared to 2016.
•	 France: Demand in Paris remained
resilient thanks to the attractive
environment and the impact of tourists.
On the contrary, demand for secondary
locations is weakening.
•	 Spain: Growth of tourism and economic
improvements helped to maintain stable
rents and yields for the High street. An
increase in turnover is expected in
2018.
Yield shopping centre
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Russia
Greece
Bulgaria
Romania
Hungary
Slovakia
Ireland
Portugal
Poland
Finland
Italy
UnitedKingdom
Sweden
Spain
Czechrepublic
Belgium
Austria
Germany
Norway
France
Net prime Yield 2016 Net prime Yield 2017
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Bratislava
Bucharest
Lisbon
Warsaw
Birmingham
Manchester
Edimburgh
Stockholm
Brussels
Helsinki
Oslo
Prague
Glasgow
Moscow
Copenhagen
Amsterdam
Madrid
Barcelona
Hamburg
Berlin
Frankfurt
Vienna
Munich
Dublin
Zurich
Rome
Milan
London
Paris
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Prime rent 2016
(€/sqm/year)
Prime rent 2017
(€/sqm/year)
Net prime yield (%)
2017
€/smq/year
High Street Retail market
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
©d-maps.com
500 km
300 mi
Moscow
4,016
12.0%
RUS
9.5%
Stockholm
1,339
3.9%
S
4.5%
Oslo
2,562
3.9%
N
4.1%
Edinburgh
1,624
4.4%
UK
4.1%
Manchester
2,546
4.0%
London
16,000
2.5%
Birmingham
1,298
4.5%
Glasgow
2,583
4.0%
Dublin
4,735
3.5%
IRL
4.9%
Lisbon
1,440
5.0%
P
5.5%
Madrid
3,180
3.2%
E
4.3%
IT
4.9%
GR
8.3%
BG
7.4%
RO
7.0%
Barcelona
3,340
3.4%
Paris
19,998
2.3%
F
3.5%
Brussels
1,935
3.3%
B
4.1%
Amsterdam
3,048
3.0%
Frankfurt
3,660
3.2%
D
4.1%
Munich
4,440
2.9%
Vienna
3,660
2.9%
A
4.5%
Zurich
17,604
3.2%
Milan
13,000
3.0%
Rome
12,500
2.9%
Berlin
4,065
3.3%
Prague
2,544
3.6%
CZ
4.7%
Warsaw
1,068
6.5%
PL
5.3%
Bratislava
516
7.3%
H
5.8%
SK
6.0%
Hamburg
3,520
3.4%
Copenhagen
2,816
3.0%
Helsinki
2,130
4.2%
FIN
4.4%
Bucharest
564
7.5%
European Retail Market
European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018
10Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
Legend:
High Street prime rents (€/sqm/year)
High Street Net prime yields (%)
Shopping Centre net prime yield (%)
European Logistics Market
European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018
11Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
I N V E S T M E N T S VO LU M E
•	 In 2017, the volume of industrial
investments increased by 54% on an
annual basis.
•	 The Industrial sector was the most
attractive commercial real estate market
in terms of investments.
•	 Industrial investments absorbed 15% of
the total. Investments in this sector
doubled compared to 2016.
•	 UK registered the highest volume of
investment.
K E Y D R I V E R S
•	 Warehouse spaces
•	 Drones
•	 High quality greenfield and brownfield
required
•	 Build-to-suit developments
•	 Well-connected assets
•	 Digital economy
VAC A N CY
•	 Vacancy rates continued to decline in
most of the major markets, reaching the
lowest level in the past five years
Industrial and logistics Total
Investments (€ billion)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
€ Billion
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
Germany
24%
France
12%
Nordic countries
12%
UK
32%
Italy
3%
Other countries
3%
Netherlands
8%
Poland
3%
Spain
3%
Investments by country
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
European Logistics Market
European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018
12Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
P R I M E R E N T S A N D Y I E L D S
•	 In 2017, rents remained stable in most
countries.
•	 Average net prime yields remained
stable at 6%.
•	 In 2018, yield compression and rental
growth is expected for the main markets
due to the lack of investment products.
M A R K E T H I G H L I G H T S
•	 UK: Despite the low yields, e-commerce
and positive rental growth continue to
attract the investors.
•	 Italy: 2017 registered a record in terms
of annual volume. Demand is dominated
by built-to-suite projects.
•	 Germany: Strong demand for quality
space and the lack of land increased
the speculative construction
•	 France: Rents and yields are stabilizing.
Supply is increasing in secondary
regions.
•	 Spain: 2017 ended with a take up above
the average of last year, but it was not
recorded levels of 2016. Rents are
expected to grow, while yields will see a
slight compression.
•	 Netherlands: The positive economic
development impacted the
transportation sector, which saw a
sharp growth of new logistics buildings.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Warsaw
Wien
Stockholm
St.Peterbourg
Rome
Prague
Paris
Oslo
Munich
Moscow
Milan
Manchester
Madrid
London
Lisbon
Helsinki
Hamburg
Glasgow
Frankfurt
Edinburgh
Dusseldorf
Dublin
Copenhagen
Brusseles
Birmingham
Berlin
Barcelona
Amsterdam
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Logistics market
Prime rent 2016
(€/sqm/year)
Prime rent 2017
(€/sqm/year)
Net prime yield (%)
€/sqm/year %
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
0.0%
2.0%
1.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
European average prime logistics rents and yields
2013 2014 2015 20172016
Net prime yields (%) Prime rents (€/sqm/year)
€/sqm/year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
©d-maps.com
500 km
300 mi
Moscow
58
12.1%
Stockholm
96
5.4%
Oslo
123
5.0%
Edinburgh
85
6.0%
Manchester
78
5.0%
London
167
4.3%
Birmingham
80
4.9%
Glasgow
87
6.3%
Dublin
88
5.4%
Lisbon
45
7.1%
Madrid
65
5.9%
Barcelona
76
5.9%
Paris
57
5.0%
Brussels
56
6.0%
Amsterdam
65
5.5%
Dusseldorf
66
4.6%
Frankfurt
74
4.6%
Munich
81
4.6%
Vienna
64
5.9%
Milan
53
6.0%
Rome
54
6.3%
Berlin
60
4.6%
Prague
51
6.0%
Warsaw
57
6.3%
Hamburg
68
4.6%
Copenhagen
75
6.2%
Helsinki
116
6.0%
St.Petersburg
56
12.8%
European Logistics Market
European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018
13Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
Legend:
Prime rents (€/sqm/year)
Net prime yields (%)
Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group
R&D Dept. Italy
+39 039 6423876
REAGinfo@duffandphelps.com
www.duffandphelps.it
www.duffandphelps.com
C O N TAC T
The information presented in this report has been obtained with the greatest of care from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be
complete, accurate or timely. Duff & Phelps, LLC expressly disclaims any liability, of any type, including direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential
damages, arising from or relating to the use of this material or any errors or omissions that may be contained herein.
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European Real Estate Market Study - H2 2017 and Trends for 2018

  • 1. A P R I L 2 018 European Real Estate Market
  • 2. European Real Estate Market - April 2018 2Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group The European Union M AC R O E C O N O M I C OV E R V I E W • The stronger cyclical momentum in Europe and the positive unexpected rise of global trade are supporting the European Union (EU) economies transition from recovery to expansion. • EU GDP data reported by the International Monetary Found (IMF) have grown, and according to European Commission (EC), EU economies are estimated to increase from 2.1 to 2.3% for this year. • Inflation in the EU reached 1.7% in 2017, and is forecasted to grow in 2018. However, it is expected to slightly decrease in 2019 (1.8%). • If short-term economic growth exceed expectations, in the medium-term, high global asset prices could be vulnerable to a re-assessment of risks and fundamentals. • The outcome of Brexit negotiations remains uncertain and geopolitical tensions/protectionist polices are main threats for EU economies. European Union (28) (Billions U.S. Dollars) European Union (28) (% change) 0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2014 1.8 2015 2.3 2016 2.0 2017** 2.4 2018** 2.3 2019** 2.0 2020* 1.8 2021* 1.7 2022* 1.7 European Union GDP U.S. Dollars (Billion) (% change) * IMF forecast ** EC Winter 2018 forecast Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on IMF European Commission (EC) data -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 2022*2021*2020*2019*2018*2017*20162015 2.0 Inflation (average consumer prices, % change) 0.0 0.2 1.7** 1.9** 1.8** 1.9 2.0 2.0 European Union (28) Advanced Economies * IMF forecast ** EC Winter 2018 forecast Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on IMF European Commission (EC) data
  • 3. European Real Estate Market - April 2018 3Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group The European Union R E G I O N A L C O M P E T I T I V E N E S S • According to the European Commission (“EC”), regional competitiveness is the ‘ability of a region to offer an attractive and sustainable environment for firms and residents to live and work.’ • The tool used for measuring and assessing the competitiveness at regional level in the EU is the Regional Competitiveness Index (RCI). • The factors which determine RCI are: Basic dimension (institution, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, health and basic education), Efficiency dimension (higher education and lifelong learning, labour market efficiency and market size) and Innovation dimension (technological readiness, business sophistication and innovation). • The RCI shows a more polycentric pattern with strong capital and metropolitan regions in many parts of Europe. London and its commuting zone ranked top in 2016. • Capital regions tend to be the most competitive region in their Country, but there are exceptions. In the Netherlands, the capital region is ranked second, while in Italy, Lombardia, a historically highly productive region, continues to be the best. Many other German regions outperform Berlin, which may be due to its relatively short history as the capital of a reunited Germany. -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Other Region (min)Other Region (max)Capital Region EU Region ranking based on RCI 2016 score (EU28=0) UK Sweden Portugal Poland Netherlands Italy France Finland Spain Denmark G ermany CzechRepublic Belgium Austria *Equal same rank is assigned to two regions if their score difference (on a 0-100 scale) is not above 0.1 Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on EU Regional Competitiveness Index 2016 Rank* Country Region name Rank* Country Region name 1 United Kingdom London and regions covered by its commuting zone 254 Romania Sud-Muntenia 2 United Kingdom Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire 255 Romania Sud-Vest Oltenia 3 Netherlands Utrecht 256 Greece Ionia Nisia 4 Sweden Stockholm 257 Greece Dytiki Ellada 5 United Kingdom Surrey, East and West Sussex 258 Greece Peloponnisos 6 Denmark Hovedstaden 258 Bulgaria Severozapaden 7 Luxembourg Luxembourg 258 Greece Sterea Ellada 8 France Île de France 261 Greece Anatoliki Makedonia, Thraki 9 Germany Oberbayern 262 Romania Sud-Est 10 United Kingdom Hampshire and Isle of Wight 262 France Guyane Top 10 and Bottom 10 EU regions Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on EU Regional Competitiveness Index 2016
  • 4. European Real Estate Market - April 2018 4Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group The European Union D I G I TA L E C O N O M Y A N D S O C I E T Y E-shopping • In the EU 66% of all age groups internet users ordered good or services online • In 2016, clothes & sports goods are the most popular online purchases, followed by travel/holiday accommodation, household goods and tickets for events. Less common were online purchases of food or groceries and medicine. • Looking at e-shopping data using age-users criteria, it comes to light that clothes & sports are mainly ordered by “millennials”(aged 16 to 34 years). Booking travel and holiday accommodation online are purchased by shoppers aged 45 to 64 year (57%). Finally, the age group of 35 to 44 year old had the highest share of e-shoppers who bought household goods online (52%). E-sales • According to Eurostat, in 2016, ‘20% of EU businesses reported that they conducted e-commerce sales (e-sales) to consumers, other businesses and/or public authorities; this is a moderate increase compared with 15 % in 2010’. The turnover derived by e-sales amounted to 16% of the total (11% of EDI-type sales and 5% of web sales). • In the EU, in 2016, web sales to other business (B2B) were 12% and to consumers (B2C) were 13%. Of the 5 % of total turnover generated by web sales, 2 % came from B2C sales and 3 % from B2B sales. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Norway UnitedKingdom Sweden Finland Slovakia Slovenia Romania Portugal Poland Austria Netherlands Malta Hungary Lithuania Latvia Cyprus Italy Croatia France Spain Greece Ireland Estonia Germany Denmark CzechRepublic Bulgaria Belgium Enterprises’ total turnover from e-commerce Enterprises having received orders via computer mediated networks Percentage of Enterprises having received orders via computer mediated networks and related % of turnover from e-commerce (2016) Average percentage Var % yoy (2017/2016) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Norway UnitedKingdom Sweden Finland Slovakia Slovenia Romania Poland Austria Netherlands Malta Hungary Luxembourg Lithuania Latvia Cyprus Croatia Italy France Spain Greece Ireland Estonia Germany Denmark CzechRepublic Bulgaria Belgium -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Average percentage of individuals who ordered goods or services, over the internet, for private use in 2017 and var % yoy 6% -3% 1% 11% 5% 4% 8% 16% 2% 7% 3% -28% -4% -2% 3% 1% 6% 15% 7% 1% 5% -4% -2% 3% 2% 7% 2% 7% Average % of individuals var % yoy (2017/2016) Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on Eurostat Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on Eurostat
  • 5. European Real Estate Market - April 2018 5Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group European Office Market I N V E S T M E N T S VO LU M E • In 2017, the volume of investments in the office sector increased by 5% on an annual basis. • Office still remains the most attractive sector for investors, with the 43% of total investments. • Strong investments were registered in Spain, Netherland, Italy and Ireland, but Germany remains the most attractive country with several deals greater than 10,000 m2. K E Y D R I V E R S • Management of innovative office space (smart-working) • Technology will increase the demand in the main tech district • Lack of supply core asset • Shorter leases • Efficiency, quality and flexibility VAC A N CY • On half-yearly basis, vacancy rates remained stable at 7.7%, compared to 2016 which decreased by 0.7% across European markets. • The greatest compressions were registered in Prague (-3.7%) and Barcelona (-3%). Office Total Investments (€ billion) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 € Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources 0% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% -400 -200 -300 0 -100 100 200 Amsterdam Barcelona Berlin Birmingham Brussels Copenhagen Dublin Dusseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Helsinki(CBD) Lisbon London Luxembourg Madrid Milan Moscow Munich Oslo Paris Prague Rome St.Petersbourg Stockholm Vienna Warsaw Zurich Vacancy rate (%) YOY var. (bps) bps -60 -300 10 -320 -200 -40 -20 -110 -230 -20 -20 -150 50 -90 -190 70 -210 100 40 -50 -370 -120 -110 0 -30 -250 -10 Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
  • 6. European Real Estate Market - April 2018 6Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group European Office Market P R I M E R E N T S A N D Y I E L D S • In 2017, average prime rents slightly increased (+3%) and average prime yields are under compression, reaching 4.2% on annual basis. • For 2018, this trend of rental growth and yields compression is expected to continue. M A R K E T H I G H L I G H T S : • London: ‘The Brexit effect’ represents a potential risk for investments, in particular for those related to relocation. • Milan: Remained the most dynamic Italian location. In particular CDB and Centre sub-markets registered an important take up increase. • Barcelona: In line with the Spanish economic recovery, the take up of the CBD increased due to national and international investments. • Paris: Take up in 2017 increased by 2% and vacancy rate remained stable. On the other hand, investments saw an important decrease compared to the previous year, mainly due to a lack of mega-transaction. • Rents in prime cities in Germany rose again and are expected to grow in 2018 due to the operator in co-working spaces 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% European average prime office rents and yields 2013 2014 2015 20172016 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 Net prime yields (%) Prime rents (€/sqm/year) €/sqm/year Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Office market Prime rent 2016 (€/sqm/year) Prime rent 2017 (€/sqm/year) Net prime yield (%) Vienna Warsaw Stockholm Rome Prague Paris Oslo Munich Moscow Milan Manchester Madrid Luxembourg London Lisbon Helsinki Hamburg Glasgow Frankfurt Edinburgh Dusseldorf Dublin Copenhagen Brusselles Birmingham Berlin Barcelona Amsterdam €/sqm/year Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
  • 7. European Real Estate Market - April 2018 7Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group European Office Market ©d-maps.com 500 km 300 mi Moscow 622 10.3% Stockholm 645 3.5% Oslo 451 3.7% Edinburgh 419 5.4% Manchester 440 4.9% London 852 4.1% Birmingham 426 4.9% Glasgow 382 5.4% Dublin 683 4.1% Lisbon 238 4.6% Madrid 385 3.5% Barcelona 252 3.6% Paris 768 3.2% Brussels 286 4.4% Amsterdam 400 3.8% Dusseldorf 373 3.5% Frankfurt 400 3.1% Munich 416 3.5% Wien 410 3.8% Zurich 675 2.7% Milan 520 3.6% Rome 403 4.1% Berlin 331 3.4% Prague 252 4.7% Warsaw 272 5.3% Hamburg 368 3.1% Copenhagen 304 3.8% Helsinki 336 3.5% Luxembourg 586 4.3% Legend: Prime rents (€/sqm/year) Prime yields (%) Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various data
  • 8. European Retail Market European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018 8Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group I N V E S T M E N T S VO LU M E • In 2017, the volume of investments in the retail sector increased by 3% over the prior year. • Retail investment represents 22% of the European ones. • Investor demand is expected to experience a strong recovery in 2018. • Investors are looking for core properties in the emerging markets. • In 2018, private consumption will increase thanks to the higher consumer confidence and the tourism growth. K E Y D R I V E R S • Growth of tourism in prime locations • Population growth • Digital economy • Lack of supply in prime location VAC A N CY • The strong demand in the main Europe- an markets led to a compression in vacancy rates that in 2017 reached 4.7%. Investments (€ billion) Retail Total € Billion 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 20172016201520142013 Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources High Street yields High Street rents Shopping centre yields Shopping centre rents European Average prime retail rents and yieldsyields 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% rents 0 50 100 150 200 250 201720162015201420132012 Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
  • 9. European Retail Market European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018 9Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group P R I M E R E N T S A N D Y I E L D S • In 2017, average prime rents registered an increase of 1.2% for High Streets and 1.6% for shopping centers, respectively. • Average net prime yields slightly decreased, reaching 4,1% for the High Street market and 4.9% for shopping centers • Further yields compression in the main European markets is expected in 2018. M A R K E T H I G H L I G H T S • UK: Investments are dominated by the political uncertainties caused by Brexit. Nonetheless, London remains one of the most expensive cities. • Italy: prime rents in the main cities are growing sustained by tourism. Market is still dominated by international player. • Germany: Secondary locations are taking advantage of the lack of supply in prime areas. Rents remained stable compared to 2016. • France: Demand in Paris remained resilient thanks to the attractive environment and the impact of tourists. On the contrary, demand for secondary locations is weakening. • Spain: Growth of tourism and economic improvements helped to maintain stable rents and yields for the High street. An increase in turnover is expected in 2018. Yield shopping centre 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% Russia Greece Bulgaria Romania Hungary Slovakia Ireland Portugal Poland Finland Italy UnitedKingdom Sweden Spain Czechrepublic Belgium Austria Germany Norway France Net prime Yield 2016 Net prime Yield 2017 Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Bratislava Bucharest Lisbon Warsaw Birmingham Manchester Edimburgh Stockholm Brussels Helsinki Oslo Prague Glasgow Moscow Copenhagen Amsterdam Madrid Barcelona Hamburg Berlin Frankfurt Vienna Munich Dublin Zurich Rome Milan London Paris 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Prime rent 2016 (€/sqm/year) Prime rent 2017 (€/sqm/year) Net prime yield (%) 2017 €/smq/year High Street Retail market Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
  • 10. ©d-maps.com 500 km 300 mi Moscow 4,016 12.0% RUS 9.5% Stockholm 1,339 3.9% S 4.5% Oslo 2,562 3.9% N 4.1% Edinburgh 1,624 4.4% UK 4.1% Manchester 2,546 4.0% London 16,000 2.5% Birmingham 1,298 4.5% Glasgow 2,583 4.0% Dublin 4,735 3.5% IRL 4.9% Lisbon 1,440 5.0% P 5.5% Madrid 3,180 3.2% E 4.3% IT 4.9% GR 8.3% BG 7.4% RO 7.0% Barcelona 3,340 3.4% Paris 19,998 2.3% F 3.5% Brussels 1,935 3.3% B 4.1% Amsterdam 3,048 3.0% Frankfurt 3,660 3.2% D 4.1% Munich 4,440 2.9% Vienna 3,660 2.9% A 4.5% Zurich 17,604 3.2% Milan 13,000 3.0% Rome 12,500 2.9% Berlin 4,065 3.3% Prague 2,544 3.6% CZ 4.7% Warsaw 1,068 6.5% PL 5.3% Bratislava 516 7.3% H 5.8% SK 6.0% Hamburg 3,520 3.4% Copenhagen 2,816 3.0% Helsinki 2,130 4.2% FIN 4.4% Bucharest 564 7.5% European Retail Market European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018 10Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources Legend: High Street prime rents (€/sqm/year) High Street Net prime yields (%) Shopping Centre net prime yield (%)
  • 11. European Logistics Market European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018 11Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group I N V E S T M E N T S VO LU M E • In 2017, the volume of industrial investments increased by 54% on an annual basis. • The Industrial sector was the most attractive commercial real estate market in terms of investments. • Industrial investments absorbed 15% of the total. Investments in this sector doubled compared to 2016. • UK registered the highest volume of investment. K E Y D R I V E R S • Warehouse spaces • Drones • High quality greenfield and brownfield required • Build-to-suit developments • Well-connected assets • Digital economy VAC A N CY • Vacancy rates continued to decline in most of the major markets, reaching the lowest level in the past five years Industrial and logistics Total Investments (€ billion) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 € Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources Germany 24% France 12% Nordic countries 12% UK 32% Italy 3% Other countries 3% Netherlands 8% Poland 3% Spain 3% Investments by country Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
  • 12. European Logistics Market European Real Estate Market Study - April 2018 12Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group P R I M E R E N T S A N D Y I E L D S • In 2017, rents remained stable in most countries. • Average net prime yields remained stable at 6%. • In 2018, yield compression and rental growth is expected for the main markets due to the lack of investment products. M A R K E T H I G H L I G H T S • UK: Despite the low yields, e-commerce and positive rental growth continue to attract the investors. • Italy: 2017 registered a record in terms of annual volume. Demand is dominated by built-to-suite projects. • Germany: Strong demand for quality space and the lack of land increased the speculative construction • France: Rents and yields are stabilizing. Supply is increasing in secondary regions. • Spain: 2017 ended with a take up above the average of last year, but it was not recorded levels of 2016. Rents are expected to grow, while yields will see a slight compression. • Netherlands: The positive economic development impacted the transportation sector, which saw a sharp growth of new logistics buildings. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Warsaw Wien Stockholm St.Peterbourg Rome Prague Paris Oslo Munich Moscow Milan Manchester Madrid London Lisbon Helsinki Hamburg Glasgow Frankfurt Edinburgh Dusseldorf Dublin Copenhagen Brusseles Birmingham Berlin Barcelona Amsterdam 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Logistics market Prime rent 2016 (€/sqm/year) Prime rent 2017 (€/sqm/year) Net prime yield (%) €/sqm/year % Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% European average prime logistics rents and yields 2013 2014 2015 20172016 Net prime yields (%) Prime rents (€/sqm/year) €/sqm/year 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various sources
  • 14. Duff & Phelps Real Estate Advisory Group R&D Dept. Italy +39 039 6423876 REAGinfo@duffandphelps.com www.duffandphelps.it www.duffandphelps.com C O N TAC T The information presented in this report has been obtained with the greatest of care from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be complete, accurate or timely. Duff & Phelps, LLC expressly disclaims any liability, of any type, including direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages, arising from or relating to the use of this material or any errors or omissions that may be contained herein. About Duff & Phelps Duff & Phelps is the global advisor that protects, restores and maximizes value for clients in the areas of valuation, corporate finance, disputes and investigations, compliance and regulatory matters, and other governance-related issues. Our clients include publicly traded and privately held companies, law firms, government entities and investment organizations such as private equity firms and hedge funds. We also advise the world’s leading standard-setting bodies on valuation and governance best practices. The firm’s nearly 2,500 professionals are located in over 70 offices in 20 countries around the world. For more information, visit www.duffandphelps.com © 2018 Duff & Phelps, LLC. All rights reserved. DP180319 M&A advisory, capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United States are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/ SIPC. Pagemill Partners is a Division of Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. M&A advisory, capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United Kingdom are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities Ltd. (DPSL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. M&A advisory and capital raising services in Germany are provided by Duff & Phelps GmbH, which is a Tied Agent of DPSL. Valuation Advisory Services in India are provided by Duff & Phelps India Private Limited under a category 1 merchant banker license issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.