Food Security in Focus: North America

A report from The Economist Intelligence Unit
Food securityinfocus:
NorthAmerica 2014
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© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20141
Food security in focus: North America 2014
Food security in focus: North America 2014 is an
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report
commissioned by DuPont. The report discusses the
major findings in the 2014 Global Food Security
Index (GFSI) for the three countries of North
America included in the index.
About the GFSI
The GFSI considers the core issues of affordability,
availability, and quality & safety across a set of 109
countries. The index is a dynamic quantitative and
qualitative benchmarking model, constructed from
28 unique indicators, that measures the drivers of
food security across both developed and
developing countries. Food security is defined as
the state in which people at all times have physical,
social and economic access to sufficient and
nutritious food that meets their dietary needs for a
healthy and active life, based on the definition
established at the 1996 World Food Summit. The
overall goal of the study is to assess the
vulnerability of food systems to security and
insecurity by looking at drivers of the Affordability,
Availability, and Quality & Safety of food. The 2014
GFSI is the third annual index in this series.
Acknowledgements
Lucy Hurst, associate director of custom research
for the Americas, was the project director. Joshua
Grundleger, analyst, was the project manager.
Katherine Stewart, research associate, was the
editor of the Food security in focus series. Martin
Vieiro, analyst, provided research and analytical
support. Leo Abruzzese, global forecasting director
and global director of public policy, served as
senior adviser. William Shallcross designed and
constructed the benchmarking model, and Mike
Kenny was responsible for layout and design. John
Xenakis and Joseph Lake, global economist,
provided regional expertise.
PrefaceContents
A regional
analysis of food
security 2
Regional
results and
comparisons 3
Food security in
North America 6
The countries
of North
America 10
Appendix 12

The Food security in focus regional reports identify
both similarities and differences between countries
in each region and highlight regional areas of
strength and weakness, providing regional analysis
and context to the results in the 2014 GFSI.
Food security is a complex and nuanced issue,
which can be analysed through many viewpoints
and from many geographical perspectives—
national, regional and global. To facilitate greater
insight into the primary elements of global food
security, and to develop a common standard
against which all countries and regions can be
measured, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
created the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). The
index is a tool to be used by a wide range of
organisations and individuals working to address
food security and the smooth functioning of food
systems at a variety of levels. Some of the major
elements of food security and, in particular, the
deficiencies that may lead to greater food
insecurity, differ across the globe. The regional
reports seek to facilitate a deeper analysis of food
security through a unique lens. Specifically, these
reports seek to:
l Examine regional challenges, strengths and
issues surrounding food security to gain greater
insight into the study’s measures.
l Provide a point of comparison between the
regions to understand the dynamics of food
security and the mechanisms that may be
employed to address the unique issues that are
experienced within a region.
l Explore the role of regional commonalities—
countries within a region tend to have similar
environments, problems, solutions and, in some
cases, may share common institutions.
l Create more accurate country comparisons and a
more nuanced understanding of food security by
narrowing the frame of analysis.
l Offer insight into the economic, political and
social context of the results of the 2014 GFSI.
A regional analysis of food security

Overview
On a regional level, structural elements, which are
generally more similar within regions than across
the globe, tend to play an extremely important role
in determining food security. Also, in regions that
include countries with different economic systems,
policy environments, agricultural infrastructures
and nutritional standards, the gap in food security
between best and worst performers is wider. These
structural elements tend to change little year on
year; however, when changes do occur, they have a
greater impact on food security than other factors
explored in the index.
l Economic development has the largest impact
on food security, as shown by the strong
correlation between food affordability and food
security. The top performers in the index are rich
countries with developed economies; these tend
Regional results and comparisons
Ranking/score table of all regions
Overall Rank Region 2014 GFSI Score
1 North America 80.0
2 Europe 75.4
3 Middle East and North Africa 57.4
4 Central and South America 56.0
5 Asia and Pacific 55.0
6 Sub-Saharan Africa 36.1
to have relatively high levels of GDP per capita
and low shares of household expenditure on
food. Although emerging economies are
experiencing rapid GDP growth, resulting in
increased Affordability scores and greater urban
absorption capacity, the gap between developed
and developing countries is still great.
l The most food-secure countries also tend to
have developed infrastructures, including
advanced agricultural infrastructures and
facilities and systems that support agricultural
investment and research and development
(R&D). Transport infrastructure, including road
and port systems, and adequate crop storage
facilities drive food availability and are
underdeveloped and undersupplied across
food-insecure countries owing to
underinvestment.

l A stable, efficient and functional policy
environment is crucial for food security. More
food-insecure regions, as well as countries,
frequently have higher political stability risk and
corruption levels, alongside weaker institutions
that fail to provide appropriate government
regulation and oversight. By contrast, the more
food-secure regions have robust policy
environments that facilitate food accessibility
through stable supply chains, and affordability
through food safety-net programmes.
l Nutrition plays an important role in determining
food security. Highly food-secure countries have
diversified diets and a high quality of protein.
Their diets contain a high level of
micronutrients, including iron and vitamin A.
More food-insecure countries are often deprived
of nutritious diets and lack organisations that
regulate nutritional standards.
Regional results
North America and Europe, which collectively
encompass 29 of the 109 countries in the index,
recorded the strongest performances in the GFSI,
driven by the developed countries’ dominance of
those regions.
l As two regions comprised primarily of rich
countries, Europe and North America have high
levels of GDP per capita at an average of
US$32,462 measured in terms of purchasing
power parity (PPP), compared with an average of
US$9,900 at PPP in the other four regions, while
an average of 17.7% of household expenditure
goes on food—just over half the global average
of 34.5%.
l Wealth corresponds with high sufficiency of food
supply, developed agricultural infrastructure,
strong diet diversification, relatively low
political stability risk and low corruption levels
(Ukraine and Russia are exceptions). These
factors contribute to North America’s and
Europe’s first and second place rankings
respectively in the overall index and in each of
the categories.
Availability
Rank Region Score
2 Europe 69.8
Affordability
Rank Region Score
2 Europe 80.3

The next three highest-ranked regions—the Middle
East & North Africa (MENA), Central & South
America and Asia & Pacific—together account for
52 countries in the index. They all fall within a
range of 2.4 points and share several common
factors:
l They are comprised of a mixture of developed
and developing countries that vary in terms of
economic and political structures.
l MENA’s strong Affordability score (third
overall), which is 2.3 points ahead of Central &
South America, and its third-place tie in Quality
& Safety with Central & South America account
for its overall third-place regional rank in the
index.
l Asia & Pacific’s comparatively high percentage
of the population under the global poverty line
and low diet diversification explain its lower
scores in the Affordability and Quality & Safety
categories.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest regional
score in the 2014 GFSI, with an overall score that is
just two-thirds that of the Asia & Pacific region.
l It also scores the lowest in each of the
Affordability, Availability and Quality & Safety
categories, owing to the large percentage of
low-income countries in the region; of the 28
countries included in the region, 18 are low-
income, according to World Bank income
classifications.
l Low agricultural import tariffs and commitment
to agricultural research and development, while
still weak, are areas of relative strength in
comparison with select regions, but
underdeveloped agricultural infrastructure, low
income levels and poor diet diversification drive
the region’s poor results.
Quality & Safety
Rank Region Score
2 Europe 78.9
=3 Central and South America 59.5
=3 Middle East and North Africa 59.5

North America, which is comprised of Canada,
Mexico and the United States, contains two
high-income countries and one upper-middle-
income country, all with relatively high personal
income levels, a developed agricultural
infrastructure, high diet diversification and
comprehensive access to both safe and nutritious
food. Higher disposable incomes, as all three
countries are gradually recovering from the effects
of the global financial crisis, have reduced the
share of household income spent on food and
resulted in increased food affordability and
improved food security across the region. But
despite having the highest overall score in the
2014 GFSI, North America still has room for
improvement and is still vulnerable to risks to food
security.
Food price inflation, which has been rising
globally owing to spikes in energy prices, weather
and climate events, the global financial crisis and
political instability, poses a threat to North
American food security. Food price inflation is on
track to return to historical norms, but with a
severe drought in the US, a deteriorating political
situation in eastern Europe and a slowing Chinese
economy prices could tighten throughout the year.
Assuming normal weather conditions, the US
Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipates that
the rate of national food price inflation will return
to 2.5-3.5% in 2014; however, the drought that
Food security in North America
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan
2000
Jan
2001
Jan
2002
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
United States Food price inflation
Jan 2005=100
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; FAO.

has been affecting the country since 2012 has not
yet abated. Canada, the second-largest importer of
US agricultural products after China, has not
escaped the consequences of the drought in the
US. This, coupled with a weakening Canadian
dollar, has driven the recent rise in food prices in
Canada. Higher import prices are being passed on
to consumers in grocery stores across the country.
Mexico, as a developing country, has historically
shown greater sensitivity to price fluctuations in
food, since spending on food accounts for a greater
share of household expenditure than in Canada
and the US. Mexican food price inflation has
recently slowed after a spike earlier in the year
caused by a new tax on junk food and soft drinks
aimed at curbing obesity. Suffering from the same
drought that has been plaguing the US, Mexicans
should expect to see similar effects on their food
prices. This will have more of an impact on their
wallets than on those of their northern neighbours.
If the drought continues and food prices rise, it
could blunt government efforts to jump-start the
economy.
Regional highlights
North America has maintained its top ranking (with
a score of 80.0) from the 2013 GFSI, with each
country showing improvement in its overall score.
The US and Canada, ranking in the top ten in each
of the three categories, drove the strong
performance across the board. Political stability in
all three countries, especially as the global
economy began to emerge from the financial crisis,
helped to support this improvement. The US and
Canada led the biggest regional increase, which
was in Affordability. This improvement was driven
by a decline in food consumption as a share of
household expenditure, which reflects both the fall
in global food prices and the region’s improved
agricultural tariff environment. This improvement
was slightly constrained by the fact that regional
GDP per capita remained flat from the previous
year, with only the US showing an improvement.
The resurgence of the US economy over the past
year resulted in an increase in its score for urban
absorption capacity, buffering a declining Mexican
performance and resulting in a slight regional
increase in Availability. This, combined with an
improvement in the score for public expenditure on
agricultural research and development (R&D) in
the US, helped to maintain the region’s top ranking
in this category.
The only category to decline from previous years
was Quality & Safety, and although the region still
maintained the top overall score, the individual
scores of all three countries declined. Downward
revisions to the latest available estimates for the
percentage of the population with access to
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Jan
2000
Jan
2001
Jan
2002
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Mexico Food price inflation
Jan 2005=100
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; FAO.

potable water had serious ramifications for North
America in this category, with the US and Mexico
the primary victims.
Regional strengths: Rich, stable
and innovative
Political security is closely tied to food security, as
it ensures that the systems that make food
accessible to populations are secure and effective.
American political institutions are well established,
stable and generally respected by the majority of
the population, although each branch of
government is periodically subject to criticism.
However, despite the frequent bitterness of US
politics, its institutions are unlikely to come under
serious threat in the foreseeable future. Transfers
of power are carefully delineated in the federal and
state constitutions and are carried out with little
controversy. Canada is a strong, stable country
which, like the US, enjoys high levels of political
stability. Federal-provincial relations became tense
in 2013, but a defeat of the Parti Québécois,
formed to promote Quebec’s independence, at the
polls in early 2014 ensured Canada that will remain
united. In Mexico, the dynamism of Enrique Peña
Nieto’s administration has been surprising. The
reform agenda has advanced very rapidly after 12
years of legislative gridlock. The “Pact for Mexico”
reform addresses the structural weaknesses in the
business environment and tries to reinforce the
country’s competitiveness. Greater willingness by
the government to take action against entrenched
interest groups has sent a strong signal that it is
determined to regain the ability to direct national
policy. The escalation of the crisis in Ukraine is
likely to prevent Europe, which is the second-
ranked region in this indicator, from closing the
gap.
North America’s public expenditure on
agricultural R&D as a percentage of agricultural
GDP, led by initiatives in the US, showed a year-on-
year increase. Although spending on agricultural
R&D remained fairly constant between the 2013
and 2014 indices, the US has focused its research
on areas of critical importance. For instance, the
USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture
partnered with universities in 2013 to study the
effects of weather and climate variability on beef
and dairy cattle, owing to the severe draught that
has plagued the region since 2012.
Regional weaknesses: Volatile and
vegetal
North America has experienced high volatility in
agricultural production, where it ranks third
behind Central & South America and Asia & Pacific.
One of the worst droughts in decades has yet to
abate. According to the US Drought Monitor in
April 2014, 49% of the contiguous US was
experiencing drought conditions that have
damaged or destroyed portions of the major field
crops in the US, including field corn (used for
animal feed) and soybeans.
The region’s weak urban absorption capacity
scores are mainly attributable to low levels of real
GDP growth, despite coinciding lower urbanisation
rates, which means that developing regions (where
workers flock from rural to urban areas in search of
jobs), including Asia & Pacific, Central & South
America and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA),
outperformed North America. In 2013 Canada,
Mexico and the US experienced GDP growth of
1.9%, 2.8% and 2.4% respectively, much lower
than the over 7% growth recorded by eight of the
ten top-scoring countries in the urban absorption
capacity indicator. Although Canada and the
United States have lower urban absorption capacity
scores than Mexico, economic recovery led to
Urban absorption capacity, North America
2014 score, 0-100 where 100=best
Canada
Mexico
US
59.7
60.4
66.8
62.4
60.3
63.2
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
2013 2014

year-on-year improvements for these two
countries, while Mexico experienced a score
decline, which, coupled with a small score decline
in volatility of agricultural production, drove its
overall decline in Availability.
The North American region has a low score in
the dietary availability of vegetal iron in the
average daily diet, given the relatively larger
percentage of meat and dairy products in the diets
of US and Canadian consumers. Globally, the SSA
and the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) regions
have the highest dietary intake of vegetal iron for
economic and cultural reasons. Eight of the ten
top-scoring countries in this indicator fall within
the low- to lower-middle-income bands¬, and of
the two high-income countries in the top ten,
one—the UAE—is in the MENA region. Citizens of
countries with lower income levels typically have
diets that consist mostly of vegetables and other
sources of vegetal iron, such as cereals. While
Mexico is a wealthier nation than most countries in
the SSA and MENA regions, it is poorer than Canada
and the US. Unsurprisingly, a higher percentage of
the average Mexican diet consists of items with
high levels of vegetal iron.
Dietary availability of vegetal iron—top performers and North American countries
Burkina
Faso
Niger Nigeria Rwanda Chad Mali Greece Egypt Malawi United
Arab
Emirates
Mexico Canada United
States
0
20
40
60
80
100

The countries of North America
Comprised of three countries, North America can be
divided into high-income and upper-middle-
income nations. Canada and the US have
consistently ranked in the top ten in each category
in every edition of the GFSI and are two of the
world’s wealthiest and most stable nations. Both
countries perform well in most indicators, boasting
strength in food consumption as a share of
household expenditure, GDP per capita and
political stability risk. Economic recovery, and the
accompanying steady job creation and lower
household debt, which collectively boosted
disposable income across the rich world after the
global recession, have further enhanced food
security in these countries.
Mexico’s performance looks quite poor
compared with its northern neighbours. Lower
rankings in GDP per capita, food consumption as a
share of household expenditure, agricultural
import tariffs and presence of food safety nets
reflect the income disparity in the region. Still, as
an upper-middle-income nation, Mexico’s
relatively poor regional performance is expected,
since it is more in line with other nations at a
similar stage of economic development.
Country highlights
The US is the driver of regional performance in the
GFSI: North America’s score on each indicator is
directly correlated with that of the US—it is only
when the US does not receive a high score on a
particular indicator that North America fails to
register the highest regional score. However, the
indicators on which the US does not score well—
urban absorption capacity, volatility of agricultural
production and dietary availability of vegetal
iron—are those that have a very low or negative
correlation with food security. By contrast, the
correlation between the US’s strengths, such as the
percentage of household expenditure on food, and
food security are high.
Food security successes
The US and Canada, the region’s two developed
countries, are also its best-performing countries.
The US outperformed Canada in the overall index
and across each category. The US scores
significantly better in public expenditure on
agricultural R&D (the US spends approximately
three times more than Canada), agricultural import
tariffs (Canada’s agricultural tariffs are almost four
times higher than those of the US) and GDP per
capita. There are, however, areas where Canada
outperforms the US. Canada’s access to potable
water, probably caused by less exposure to the
drought that is affecting the US, gave Canada a
higher score in food safety. Canada’s ranking in
agricultural infrastructure is also higher owing to
its top score on port infrastructure, and it boasts
lower levels of corruption than the US. Despite
some small differences between the two countries,
both are strong, developed economies whose
citizens experience two of the best food security
environments in the world.

Food security challenges
Mexico is often the laggard in the North American
region, owing primarily to its status as an emerging,
upper-middle-income economy. In the US and
Canada the percentage of the population below the
global poverty line is negligible, and although it has
shown improvement since 2012, Mexico drags down
the regional score in this indicator. Mexico also
struggles with access to food safety net programmes
and access to financing for farms. Although Mexico
has programmes such as PROGRESA, which provides
conditional cash transfers, it still depends on
non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and other
actors to fill the gaps.
Wealth impacts the performance of the countries
in this region in a number of indicators, including
corruption, political risk, food consumption as a
share of household expenditure and agricultural
infrastructure, which are all measures where
Mexico trails. When compared with countries at the
same income level, however, Mexico has the
fourth-highest overall score out of 27 countries,
and scores well across all three index categories.
Mexico has the highest micronutrient availability
of the upper-middle-income countries (owing to
the high dietary availability of vitamin A and
vegetal iron and moderate access to animal iron)
and scores above average in every indicator except
agricultural import tariffs, corruption, urban
absorption capacity and food loss. When compared
with two of the most stable and wealthiest nations
in the world, Mexico often looks as if it was
underperforming, but when compared with
countries in its relative income bracket, its
performance is strong. Economic recovery is a
priority for the Mexican government, and if its
measures are successful, the country could show
accelerated improvement that could catapult it to
the top of the upper-middle-income countries
ahead of Hungary, Brazil and Malaysia, which
currently occupy the top three ranks.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Upper middle income countries overall score
HUNGARY
BRAZIL
MALAYSIA
MEXICO
COSTARICA
ARGENTINA
TURKEY
VENEZUELA
CHINA
SERBIA
ROMANIA
PANAMA
SOUTHAFRICA
BELARUS
BOTSWANA
THAILAND
BULGARIA
COLOMBIA
PERU
TUNISIA
DOMINICANREPUBLIC
ECUADOR
KAZAKHSTAN
JORDAN
AZERBAIJAN
ALGERIA
ANGOLA

Appendix
Asia & Pacific Central & South
America
Europe Middle East &
North Africa
North America Sub-Saharan Africa
Australia Argentina Austria Algeria Canada Angola
Azerbaijan Bolivia Belarus Egypt Mexico Benin
Bangladesh Brazil Belgium Israel United States Botswana
Cambodia Chile Bulgaria Jordan Burkina Faso
China Colombia Czech Republic Kuwait Burundi
India Costa Rica Denmark Morocco Cameroon
Indonesia Dominican Republic Finland Saudi Arabia Chad
Japan Ecuador France Syria Congo (Dem. Rep.)
Kazakhstan El Salvador Germany Tunisia Côte d’Ivoire
Malaysia Guatemala Greece Turkey Ethiopia
Myanmar Haiti Hungary United Arab Emirates Ghana
Nepal Honduras Ireland Yemen Guinea
New Zealand Nicaragua Italy Kenya
Pakistan Panama Netherlands Madagascar
Philippines Paraguay Norway Malawi
Singapore Peru Poland Mali
South Korea Uruguay Portugal Mozambique
Sri Lanka Venezuela Romania Niger
Tajikistan Russia Nigeria
Thailand Serbia Rwanda
Uzbekistan Slovakia Senegal
Vietnam Spain Sierra Leone
Sweden South Africa
Switzerland Sudan
Ukraine Tanzania
United Kingdom Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Country selection table

Appendix These tables list the rankings and scores for North America in the overall index and across the three categories
(Affordability, Availability and Quality & Safety).
Overall Ranking Affordability
Overall Rank Country Score Rank Country Score
1 United States 89.3 1 United States 94.8
2 Canada 83.7 2 Canada 88.8
3 Mexico 67.1 3 Mexico 67.1
Availability Quality & Safety
Rank Country Score Rank Country Score
1 United States 85.5 1 United States 85.7
2 Canada 79.4 2 Canada 83.2
3 Mexico 65.3 3 Mexico 71.9
These tables list the year-on-year score changes, 2014 v 2013, for North America in the overall index and across the
three categories (Affordability, Availability and Quality & Safety).
Overall Ranking Affordability
Country Y-o-Y change Country Y-o-Y change
United States 1.7 United States 3.1
Canada 1.0 Canada 2.8
Mexico 0.4 Mexico 1.5
Availability Quality & Safety
Country Y-o-Y change Country Y-o-Y change
United States 1.3 Mexico -0.3
Canada 0.1 Canada -0.5
Mexico -0.4 United States -0.7

Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this
information, neither The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd. nor the
sponsor of this report can accept any responsibility or liability
for reliance by any person on this white paper or any of the
information, opinions or conclusions set out in the white paper.
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