The United Kingdom announced its new tariffs in May. They were billed as providing certainty for business. They're a good start. Unfortunately, they're completely not No-Deal Proof. This short series of slides explains why. Best downloaded and vbiewed with animations. Created using 2016 data. Sources: ITC Trade Map (drawing on UKGOV and EUROSTAT) and FAOSTAT Queries: info@explaintrade.com

1. Are the UK’s New Tariffs
Sustainable under No-Deal?
Dmitry Grozoubinski
Key points:
The UK is heavily reliant on agricultural imports from the EU
The newly announced UK tariffs are high on many agricultural products
If there’s no deal with the EU, they’ll need to be revised or food prices will rise.

2. This was the UK’s 2016 “Balance” in Agriculture:
-£20
-£10
£-
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
Billions
In
What the UK
grew and kept
+
What the UK
imported
Out
What the UK
exported
Final Balance:
+ £49 Billion

3. This is how that balance breaks down…
-£20
-£10
£-
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
Billions
In
UK Grown
and Kept
Imported from
the EU
Imported from
elsewhere
-£20
-£10
£-
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
Billions
Out
Exported to
the EU
Exported
elsewhere
30%
44%
26%
40%
60%

4. If the UK and EU get a Tariff Eliminating Deal…
Tariff Free
Some Tariffs
Remain

5. But if they don’t and the UK applies its new tariffs…
Some
Tariffs
Tariff Free
10%
5%
32%
53%
Tariff Free Under 5% Tariff Over 5% Tariff Non Ad-Valorem Tariff
New Tariffs on
Imports from EU
What are “Non Ad-Valorem Tariffs?”
Most tariffs are a simple percentage of a products value.
So 5% on a £100 bag for £5 in tariffs.
Some tariffs however include a flat rate, like £10 per
kilo, which doesn’t change with product value. These
tariffs are called “Non Ad Valorem” and they’re often
pretty high.

6. -£20
-£10
£-
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
Billions
In
What the UK
grew and kept
plus
What the UK
imported
Out
What the UK
exported
That would mean new high tariffs on…
Facing New
High Tariffs
£15.5b
(38%)

7. Conclusions:
• Under newly announced UK tariffs, 85% of existing agriculture imports
from the EU would face high tariffs
• That’s almost 40% of all the agricultural produce in the country
• The UK will need to revise its tariffs again if there’s a No-Deal
• We still don’t know to what